Bracketology Thoughts, Pt. 10

[Maroon Eagle]

Here's part ten of my thoughts regarding how I think the bracket will work. As previously mentioned, I'm posting daily updates during tournament week.

Yesterday's thoughts are here.
Wednesday's thoughts.
Tuesday's thoughts.
Monday's thoughts.
Sunday's thoughts.
March 2 thoughts.

(x - conference leader; z - conference champion & winner of NCAA tournament berth)

1-seed
xTennessee
xUCLA
xMemphis
xNorth Carolina

2-seed
xGeorgetown
Duke
xTexas
Kansas

3-seed
xXavier
Louisville
xWisconsin
Stanford

Stanford moves here from the 4-seed.

4-seed
Purdue
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame
zButler

Butler moves here from the 5-seed. Notre Dame moves down from the 3-seed.

5-seed
zDrake
Indiana
Marquette
Connecticut

Connecticut moves here from the 4-seed. Marquette moves here from the 6-seed.

6-seed
Washington State
Michigan State
Clemson
Pittsburgh

Michigan State moves down from the 5-seed. Pittsburgh moves up from the 7-seed.

7-seed
xBrigham Young
Mississippi State
Southern California
West Virginia

BYU moves down from the 6-seed. West Virginia moves up from the 9-seed.

8-seed
xKent State
Gonzaga
Oklahoma
Miami, FL

9-seed
UNLV
zDavidson
Kansas State
Kentucky

UNLV drops from the 7-seed. Davidson moves up from the 10-seed.

10-seed
Baylor
St. Mary's
Illinois State
Arkansas

Baylor drops from the 9-seed.

11-seed
Temple
Arizona
zWestern Kentucky
Texas A&M

Texas A&M moves up to the 11-seed.

12-seed
Virginia Tech
South Alabama
Ohio State
Massachusetts

New Mexico exits the bracket. Massachusetts drops from the 11-seed. Virginia Tech enters the bracket as a 12-seed.

13-seed
xStephen F. Austin
zOral Roberts
zGeorge Mason
zSan Diego

14-seed
zCornell
xUC Santa Barbara
xUtah State
zSiena

15-seed
zAustin Peay
xMaryland-Baltimore County
xAmerican
zBelmont

16-seed
zPortland State
xMorgan State
zWinthrop
Play-in
zMount St. Mary's
xAlabama State

In the Bracket
Virginia Tech

Out of the Bracket
New Mexico

Last Four In:
Massachusetts
South Alabama
Ohio State
Virginia Tech

Last Four Out:
St. Joseph's
UAB
New Mexico
Villanova

Next Four Out:
Mississippi
Florida
Syracuse
Oregon

The bubble teams apparently don't want to play their ways in the tournament. UAB loses. New Mexico loses. Villanova loses. Ole Miss loses. Oregon loses. Arizona State loses. Florida loses. Massachusetts loses. Maryland loses. And all on Thursday. At least Temple and St. Joseph's won.

 

[Temple of the Dawg]

1. I know Baylor has a good overall SOS & RPI and was 1 game over .500 in the Big12, but is there a chance they fall farther than the 10 seed for losing to a 12 seed Colorado in the Big12 tourney (the 1st time ever a 12 has won)? I don't expect this to knock them out (obviously), just wondering if this bad of a loss might cost them more than one seed.

2. With so many bubble teams losing so far, any chance any of those whose bubble has apparently burst back their way in if other bubble teams keep losing? If so, which ones do you think have the best realistic shot?

 

[Maroon Eagle]

1. I know Baylor has a good overall SOS & RPI and was 1 game over .500 in the Big12, but is there a chance they fall farther than the 10 seed for losing to a 12 seed Colorado in the Big12 tourney (the 1st time ever a 12 has won)? I don't expect this to knock them out (obviously), just wondering if this bad of a loss might cost them more than one seed.

I considered moving Baylor to the 11-seed, but the question was who to move up. Massachusetts which had been an 11-seed lost, as did Arizona. Texas A&M moved up from the 12-seed, and I didn't feel comfortable moving them up one more seed. Western Kentucky's not moving up either.

I've had little confidence in Temple. They've been the 11-seed I've had the least confidence in, and I've not moved them up any. If they defeat Charlotte in the A-10 semifinals, I might move them up to a 10-seed. If Texas A&M wins in the quarterfinals, they will move up.</p>

2. With so many bubble teams losing so far, any chance any of those whose bubble has apparently burst back their way in if other bubble teams keep losing? If so, which ones do you think have the best realistic shot?

Yes. UMass is an example. When the Minutemen lost to Charlotte yesterday, I had figured they were out, but then I noticed a lot of bubble teams were losing. And then New Mexico lost in the first round of the MWC. That knocked them out, and of the teams remaining, I felt UMass was the most deserving survivor. That being said, if St. Joseph's knocks off Xavier, I believe the Hawks take the Minutemen's spot.

As far as teams whose bubbles have burst that still have realistic shots, I think Villanova has the best shot; they're closely followed by Syracuse. Dark horses are Virginia Commonwealth, a conference champion that has to be happy that bubble teams are losing, and New Mexico.

I don't like Dayton. They have a Top 40 RPI, but didn't do great in the A-10. The Flyers are also hurt by the fact that Temple and St. Joseph's are outperforming them in the tournament. Creighton has worked their way back to the Top 50 in RPI, but they finished fourth in the MVC, so they're not going. UAB may have finished second in C-USA, but they have six losses to teams ranked below 100 in the RPI.</p>

 

[Temple of the Dawg]

for the well thought out & extensive replies. I appreciate your insights.

+1

 

[orthodawg08]

Was watching a college bball show on ESPN and one of the talking heads seemed to think that the winner of the Big 12, if it were Kansas or Texas, would be a one seed. Thoughts?

 

[Maroon Eagle]

The Longhorns have beaten Tennessee and UCLA. I can see the Longhorns getting a one-seed if they win the Big 12 tournament. Kansas will need help.