Yet another update. Last week's thoughts can be found here.
1-seed
xTennessee
xDuke
xMemphis
xTexas
With a one-game lead in the Big 12, the Longhorns move up to the 1-seed. Despite Duke's two conference losses this past week, they still have the lead in the ACC.
2-seed
North Carolina
xUCLA
xGeorgetown
Kansas
The Jayhawks become an at-large entry. Georgetown holds the Big East automatic bid pending the result of today's Louisville-Pitt game.
3-seed
xWisconsin
Stanford
xXavier
Louisville
I don't know what the Big 10 tiebreaks are since there's an unbalanced schedule and a 3-way tie. I'll go with Wisconsin due to highest RPI. You'd think Indiana and Purdue would play each other twice each season though.
4-seed
Purdue
Indiana
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame
5-seed
xDrake
Michigan State
Connecticut
Marquette
6-seed
xButler
Kansas State
Washington State
Southern California
7-seed
xSt. Mary's
Pittsburgh
Arizona
Gonzaga
8-seed
xBrigham Young
Ohio State
Arkansas
xKent State
9-seed
xSouth Alabama
Mississippi State
Miami, FL
Clemson
The Hurricanes enter the bracket. The Jaguars are assigned the Sun Belt automatic bid. It's odd that it's turned out that I'm assigning MSU a 9-seed along with three teams that defeated them this season. It just worked out that way.
10-seed
St. Joseph's
Baylor
Florida
UNLV
11-seed
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Syracuse
West Virginia
12-seed
Illinois State
New Mexico
Massachusetts
Kentucky
The Lobos, Minutemen, and Wildcats enter the bracket.
13-seed
xOral Roberts
xDavidson
xCornell
xVirginia Commonwealth
14-seed
xAmerican
xNiagara
xBelmont
xMaryland-Baltimore County
Niagara enters the bracket. They're in a 4-way tie for first in the MAAC and have the best record in games played among the four tied teams (Siena, Rider, and Loyola (Md.) are the others) at 3-2.
15-seed
xBoise State
xPortland State
xAustin Peay
xCal State Northridge
16-seed
xRobert Morris
xWinthrop
xLamar
Play-in
xMorgan State
xAlabama State
Robert Morris enters the bracket as the leaders of the NEC. Morgan State enters the bracket again as leaders of the MEAC and is pencilled in to face Alabama State in the play-in game. #123 Lamar still maintains a one-game lead over #47 Stephen F. Austin.
In the Bracket
Morgan State
Robert Morris
Niagara
Miami, FL
New Mexico
Massachusetts
Kentucky
Out of the Bracket
Norfolk State
Wagner
Western Kentucky
Siena
Rhode Island
Houston
Maryland
Last Four In:
Illinois State
New Mexico
Massachusetts
Kentucky
I'm using Illinois State as a placeholder. I expect two teams from the MVC to make the tournament, and they are the second place team in the conference. New Mexico's quietly sneaked into the field. I'm not sure about UMass making the field, but they've got a good chance of finishing third in the A-10, and they're the team with the second best RPI in the conference. Kentucky. #64 in the RPI, but 9-3 in the SEC and are 8-2 in their last ten games.
Last Four Out:
Villanova
Rhode Island
Maryland
Southern Illinois
To me, the question was: Do I take the 9th team from the Big East over the 6th team from the SEC? I think not; especially since Kentucky is playing better over the past ten games than has Villanova.
The Rams have lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Terrapins have lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Salukis are playing good basketball. They just got off to a slow start.
Next Four Out:
Western Kentucky
Stephen F. Austin
Houston
Dayton
The Hilltoppers, Lumberjacks, and Cougars are stuck in conferences that aren't going to get at-large berths in addition to automatic bids. They need to win their conference tournaments if they're going to go dancing. The Flyers have had injury problems, but a team tied for tenth place in the Atlantic 10 doesn't deserve a bid even if they had a great start.
1-seed
xTennessee
xDuke
xMemphis
xTexas
With a one-game lead in the Big 12, the Longhorns move up to the 1-seed. Despite Duke's two conference losses this past week, they still have the lead in the ACC.
2-seed
North Carolina
xUCLA
xGeorgetown
Kansas
The Jayhawks become an at-large entry. Georgetown holds the Big East automatic bid pending the result of today's Louisville-Pitt game.
3-seed
xWisconsin
Stanford
xXavier
Louisville
I don't know what the Big 10 tiebreaks are since there's an unbalanced schedule and a 3-way tie. I'll go with Wisconsin due to highest RPI. You'd think Indiana and Purdue would play each other twice each season though.
4-seed
Purdue
Indiana
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame
5-seed
xDrake
Michigan State
Connecticut
Marquette
6-seed
xButler
Kansas State
Washington State
Southern California
7-seed
xSt. Mary's
Pittsburgh
Arizona
Gonzaga
8-seed
xBrigham Young
Ohio State
Arkansas
xKent State
9-seed
xSouth Alabama
Mississippi State
Miami, FL
Clemson
The Hurricanes enter the bracket. The Jaguars are assigned the Sun Belt automatic bid. It's odd that it's turned out that I'm assigning MSU a 9-seed along with three teams that defeated them this season. It just worked out that way.
10-seed
St. Joseph's
Baylor
Florida
UNLV
11-seed
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Syracuse
West Virginia
12-seed
Illinois State
New Mexico
Massachusetts
Kentucky
The Lobos, Minutemen, and Wildcats enter the bracket.
13-seed
xOral Roberts
xDavidson
xCornell
xVirginia Commonwealth
14-seed
xAmerican
xNiagara
xBelmont
xMaryland-Baltimore County
Niagara enters the bracket. They're in a 4-way tie for first in the MAAC and have the best record in games played among the four tied teams (Siena, Rider, and Loyola (Md.) are the others) at 3-2.
15-seed
xBoise State
xPortland State
xAustin Peay
xCal State Northridge
16-seed
xRobert Morris
xWinthrop
xLamar
Play-in
xMorgan State
xAlabama State
Robert Morris enters the bracket as the leaders of the NEC. Morgan State enters the bracket again as leaders of the MEAC and is pencilled in to face Alabama State in the play-in game. #123 Lamar still maintains a one-game lead over #47 Stephen F. Austin.
In the Bracket
Morgan State
Robert Morris
Niagara
Miami, FL
New Mexico
Massachusetts
Kentucky
Out of the Bracket
Norfolk State
Wagner
Western Kentucky
Siena
Rhode Island
Houston
Maryland
Last Four In:
Illinois State
New Mexico
Massachusetts
Kentucky
I'm using Illinois State as a placeholder. I expect two teams from the MVC to make the tournament, and they are the second place team in the conference. New Mexico's quietly sneaked into the field. I'm not sure about UMass making the field, but they've got a good chance of finishing third in the A-10, and they're the team with the second best RPI in the conference. Kentucky. #64 in the RPI, but 9-3 in the SEC and are 8-2 in their last ten games.
Last Four Out:
Villanova
Rhode Island
Maryland
Southern Illinois
To me, the question was: Do I take the 9th team from the Big East over the 6th team from the SEC? I think not; especially since Kentucky is playing better over the past ten games than has Villanova.
The Rams have lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Terrapins have lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Salukis are playing good basketball. They just got off to a slow start.
Next Four Out:
Western Kentucky
Stephen F. Austin
Houston
Dayton
The Hilltoppers, Lumberjacks, and Cougars are stuck in conferences that aren't going to get at-large berths in addition to automatic bids. They need to win their conference tournaments if they're going to go dancing. The Flyers have had injury problems, but a team tied for tenth place in the Atlantic 10 doesn't deserve a bid even if they had a great start.
