Bubble Watching

[VegasDawg13]

I posted this yesterday in a thread about Ole Miss's chances of getting in. It was the 11 teams directly ahead of them on Lunardi's bubble watch. The first four were the next four out, then last four out, then last four in.

Ole Miss - lost to UGA
Villanova - lost to G'town
St. Joe's - won
Dayton - lost to Xavier
UAB - lost to Tulsa
VCU - season over, could be passing all of these teams that are losing
Florida - lost bad to Bama
Ohio State - today against Michigan State
Arizona State - lost to USC
New Mexico - lost to Utah
Illinois State - season finished, should be safe because no one is passing them like they could
UMass - lost to Charlotte

To me, the winners in all of this seem to be teams like VCU and Illinois State, but teams like AZ St, Dayton, Villanova, and Ohio St should feel pretty good too because at least they aren't taking bad losses like everyone else is.

 

[BriantheDawg]

1 out of a possible 11 bubble teams won with everything on the line. If any of these teams just win one game, they're probably in. It's gotta suck to be an OM fan today.

 

[4suredog]

I thought they were a baseball school?

 

[VegasDawg13]

Last Four In:
Oregon - seaon over
Ohio State - lost to Michigan State
Arizona State - season over
St. Joe's - plays Xavier tonight

Last Four Out:
UMass - season over
VCU - season over
Dayton - season over
Villanova - season over

Next Four Out:
Temple - plays Charlotte tonight
New Mexico - season over
Florida State - lost to UNC; Leonard Hamilton comes up one win shy of the dance aGAIN.
Virginia Tech - beat Miami handily (dear God, a bubble team actually won a tough game)

Today won't be as fun because so many of the bubble teams are already in sit-and-wait mode. Florida State could make a big move if they take down the Heels. Virginia Tech has some quality wins still to be had. Temple should win, but would a win over Charlotte really help them that much? St. Joe's and Ohio State could lock up bids with big wins today.

Also, I don't understand the Arizona State thing. Their RPI is 81, and they've lost 10 of their last 15 games.
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Edited for updates.

 

[Coach34]

low RPI and lost 10 of 15, yet people are touting them as securely in. Thats just nuts</p>

 

[MissStFan87]

to the Pac-10 all year long.

Not that it's anything new.

 

[MSUCostanza]

had a basketball genius on staff like Stan Jones, he wouldn't have so much trouble making it to the dance.

 

[patdog]

And 1 of their 5 wins in the last 15 games was against Oregon St., possibly the worst major conference team in the country. Arizona St. shouldn't even be in the discussion for a bid. If they deserve to get in, then Mississippi definitely deserves to get in.</p>

 

[hatfieldms]

If he had Jones AND Kirby then I could see mulitple national championships

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Peter (Bloomington, IL): Why is everyone in love with Arizona St. How did they move up with a loss, when they have an RPI of 81, and lost 7 of there last 12?

Joe Lunardi: (12:25 PM ET ) You'd have to ask AndyK and Doug; I don't get it. And ASU has actually lost 10 of 15 since mid-January.

Agreed, but I wonder why he has them in the last four in.

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Michael (Evansville, In): Hey Joe, Absolute carnage yesterday. Of the THIRTEEN Bubble teams that lost yesterday would you say this is a fair assessment: DONE: New Mexico, Mississippi, Florida, UAB, Houston, Maryland, Dayton Could Survive yesterday but it wouldn't be a shock if they were excluded on Sunday: UMASS, Zona St., Oregon, Villinova Probably will survive: Zona, Baylor

Joe Lunardi: (12:07 PM ET ) Only change I would make is Dayton from your first group to the second.

I still say Dayton is done, and I'd move Arizona State to the done list too. Oregon has a very slim chance of making it.</p>

---</p>

Lunardi & I both agree on UMass though...</p>

Jason (Iowa): Which bubble team that lost yesterday has the best chance of making it?

Joe Lunardi: (12:23 PM ET ) UMass.

Link to chat.