Coach's SEC picks-2008

[Hector.sixpack]

This is the same talk I got last when people like you were saying they couldnt be any good on offense after losing Russell and two 1st round WR's to the NFL.</p>

People like me made money after betting that LSU would win the SEC and the NC. I knew as soon as Miles hired Crowton it was a perfect fit for their smart QB- Flynn, a great leader who graduated. LSU has a great schedule (8 home games)- I still believe their season will come down to the QB play- which is a big question. Didn't Auburn's QB do pretty well in the bowl game- with only 10 practices?</p>

 

[HD6]

to call you a dumbass. You show the world everyday.

Is that the same offensive line that had them second to last in rushing offense last year? I'll put a friendly dollar they don't finish in the top half of the conference. That goes for you too Richman.

And bottom line, a preseason national title contender ending up at the Outback Bowl would be a little worse than a preseason fourth place team finishing fifth. At least in the real world, it would.

 

[bulldogbaja]

Most people knew, and said, that LSU would be unbelievable last year. If you think picking them to win the NC makes you a genius, think again. They were without a doubt the best team in the country last year, and it surprised no one.
It's not like Russell left them without a QB. Flynn had been there for four years. Les Miles said that the last couple years, he was close to challenging Russell for the starting spot. Think about that. Close the challenging the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft for the starting spot. Now I doubt he was really that close to challenging Jamarcus, just saying, their QB situation last year is NOTHING like the one this year.

LSU was 6-2 last year. They should have lost more than that. Their team is not as good this year. Their schedule is harder. 6-2 might not even win the West. Their one saving grace is that nobody else is the west really looks dominant either.</p>

 

[HD6]

And finished fourth in the conference in rushing? So somehow, returning 4 starters is now a weakness? And we have yet to mention they may have the best running back in the country playing for them. Would they be better off with the experienced 11th place line at Ole Miss?

Please, keep talking.

 

[Coach34]

less than half the normal posters believed LSU would win the NC. Ol Blew lost the "loser leave the board" bet cause they won 10 games. Many here said they lost too much on offense to be good enough and also that Les Miles would 17 it up. Neither happened.</p>

I do agree with you that they are not as good at QB. However, they have an outstanding OL, great RB's, and good WR's to take the pressure off the QB. That makes a big difference. Murphy also gives them more of a bigger HR threat than Hester did.</p>

 

[Coach34]

"So somehow, returning 4 starters is now a weakness?"

They only return 3 starters starting the same spots...cohesion will take some time

 

[patdog]

Sure LSU won't be as good as least year. But the West looks to be pretty down again this year. The only team I see challenging LSU is Auburn, and they have QB issues just like LSU does.

 

[Afro Dawg]

But isn't the fact that they return 3 OL starters a good thing? How many teams return 3 out of 5 starters on a line that was good in the first place? Maybe I'm off, but I think you're trying to turn a strength into a weakness for the sake of a very weak argument.

 

[Temple of the Dawg]

among three starters from last year plus two new guys? That is reasonable. Do you suppose it took time for FOUR freshman last year to come together and learn to play as a unit in addition to adjusting to the college game? Wasn't UGA ranked near the top of the rushing stats in the SEC last year? Sounds like cohesion wasn't such a problem last year when the OL faced more obstacles than it does this year.

 

[Coach34]

is going to be terrible. But 7 of the 12 SEC team return 4 OL guys. My point is that these guys are still young and have to go to SC, Arizona St, Fla in J'ville, LSU, and Auburn. I dont think they have the talent LSU had last year and they couldnt go unscathed through the SEC schedule.

Georgia will not go 12-0. And I stand by my prediction of 2 losses.

 

[Coach34]

"Wasn't UGA ranked near the top of the rushing stats in the SEC last year? Sounds like cohesion wasn't such a problem last year when the OL faced more obstacles than it does this year. "

Road games in 2007:

@Bammer
@Tenn
@Vandy
Fla in J'ville
@Ga Tech

Road games in 2008:

@SC
@Arizona St
@LSU
Fla in J'ville
@Kentucky
@Auburn

big damn difference in obstacles in 2008

 

[HD6]

it's more difficult for returning starters to play on the road than new starters? That's an interesting theory.

UGA has won the last 3 times they played at Carolina, with lesser teams. Vandy last year versus Kentucky this year is a wash. At Alabama versus at ASU is a wash at best on the ASU side, they are nowhere near as physical as an SEC defense. They won their last trip to Auburn with a far inferior team to this year. What exactly are you pointing at here? A line with 3 returning starters, and let's face it, the guys that aren't returning starters are probably four and five star recruits, is somehow a weakness. Only in your world.

 

[bulldogbaja]

That way I won't have to try to dig up that post when LSU doesn't win the west. It's really pretty good odds, if any of 5 other teams win the west, I'm right.

Look, I don't care if their jerseys say "LSU" or not. Some people seem to think that just because they're the tigahs they're going to be awesome. The only thing that means is that they're going to beat us. Sure, they have tons of talent, but so do lots of other people. You think Auburn isn't loaded with incredibly talented athletes? Alabama has talented players, so does Arkansas, even Ole Miss has some hosses. Strip the name off the uniform, look at them position-by-position, and look at their schedule, and tell me why they have a better chance than anybody else. Don't forget that they barely got to 6-2 last year.

For the record (since we're evidently keeping up with it now), my pick is Auburn. I think LSU finishes 4-4 or 5-3, with the swing game at SC, and losses to FL, GA, and AU. </p>

 

[Coach34]

thats the fun of all this- making a prediction an seeing how it turns out. I did a position-by-position comparision-

QB's- push
RB's- LSU
OL- LSU
WR's- LSU
TE- LSU
DL- LSU
LB's- Auburn
Secondary- Auburn
Coaching- push
Game site- Auburn

add that up, I went with LSU...we'll see what happens

 

[Coach34]

to where its like talking to CowStanza about basketball- you arent going to budge and neither am i.

Georgia will not go 12-0. Their road schedule is too tough.

@SC- lost to them last year in Athens and SC is better
@Ariz St- predicted to be a Top 10 team > Bammer-2007
@LSU- tough physical teams butting heads
Fla in J'ville- is still like a road game- big rivalry..dont think that **** they pulled last year is forgotten in Gainesville
@Auburn- 4th week in a row traveling, plus playing a tough, physical team

Thats not a remedy for success with young guys in the trenches

 

[jamdawg96]

Not necessarily with your detailed logic, but I too, think Georgia could slip to 3rd in the East, or tie for 2nd, yet still make a good bowl game.. (Thus not be considered a "flop"). You can't call 10-2 a flop with Georgia's schedule, no matter what expectations they have. Being preseason #1 doesn't mean you have the best chance of winning the national title, it means you have the best team (on paper) based on who you return and acquire. It has nothing to do with schedule.

And Georgia's schedule is brutal. There's not much of a difference this year (at least there shouldn't be) between teams 1-10, so being preseason number one, and all this hype behind Georgia and a national title run, is **** when you compare their chances of making it based on talent AND schedule. Look at USC, Florida, and as much as I hate to say it, Ohio State. Those teams have much better chances of running through their schedule than Georgia. And they aren't that far behind on paper talent-wise either.

 

[jackstefano]

S

 

[KurtRambis4]

guy on here that said state had a better chance of winning the west than lsu for this year? that's going out on a limb...to say the least

 

[patdog]

Georgia will not go 12-0. Their road schedule is too tough.

@SC- lost to them last year in Athens and SC is better
@Ariz St- predicted to be a Top 10 team > Bammer-2007
@LSU- tough physical teams butting heads
Fla in J'ville- is still like a road game- big rivalry..dont think that **** they pulled last year is forgotten in Gainesville
@Auburn- 4th week in a row traveling, plus playing a tough, physical team

Thats not a remedy for success with young guys in the trenches

People aren't hammering you because you don't think UGA will go 12-0. They're hammering you because you picked a consensus top-5 team to finish 3rd in the East. You're overanalyzing some things. UGA is simply a better team than USC, ASU, LSU, and Auburn and are at least the equal of UF. You've been telling us how great Visor Boy's team is for years now, and it just hasn't happened on the field. The plain fact is everybody has caught up to his offensive schemes and he's never been able to recruit a really talented QB. He didn't have any problem getting QBs who could be successful before people figured out how to defense him, but it hasn't been so easy for him the last several years (even going back to his last year or two at UF). Not to mention that you say USC will be improved from when they last met UGA and completely ignore the fact that UGA PROVED they are a better team than they were that day by actually going out and playing great football the latter part of the season.

I've got them picked 11-1, but I'll go on record that even if they finish 6-2 in the SEC, they'll still finish 2nd in the East because both USC and UT will have at least 3 SEC losses.</p>

 

[HD6]

After all, he won't budge.

 

[rebel law]

Pretty sure it was Goat.

 

[bulldogbaja]

Our schedule alone should give us at least a 2-game handicap, plus (probably for the first and last time) we are actually better at the QB position.
Out on a limb, yes, but I'll stand by it- no risk, no reward.</p>

 

[Coach34]

Our schedule alone should give us at least a 2-game handicap, plus (probably for the first and last time) we are actually better at the QB position.
Out on a limb, yes, but I'll stand by it- no risk, no reward.</p>

</p>LSU has a freakin 4-star QB that has had to sit behind Russell, Flynn, and a very talented convict. I like the way Carroll managed some games last year, but damn. Worrying about LSU's talent level at any position is a little overboard right now. Especially when they were able to score points in their Spring Game and we werent.

 

[bonedaddy401]

I agree completely.

 

[Coach34]

"UGA is simply a better team than USC, ASU, LSU, and Auburn and are at least the equal of UF"

The thing is, I agree with you. But there is no 17'ing way Georgia is going to go on the road and beat every one of those teams. They have to play on the road 4 straight weeks. They are going to slip up, and probably more than once.

"Not to mention that you say USC will be improved from when they last met UGA and completely ignore the fact that UGA PROVED they are a better team than they were that day by actually going out and playing great football the latter part of the season."

i'm not the only one that thinks SC has has the top secondary and top LB core in the SEC. National magazines have agreed. I think EJ will be a step up from what they had in Nix. That is one reason SC is going to be a solid team. They will be very good defensively.

Secondly, they have possibly the best WR in the SEC as well as the best TE. They definitely need to do a better job protecting the passer and taking care of the football, but having those two guys helps alot.

Lastly, they play Georgia, Tenn, and LSU at home. We all know that home field advantage in the SEC is huge. The have three very winnable road games in Vandy, Mississippi, and Kentucky, plus a home game with a very down UPig bunch. Thats basically 4 SEC wins right there. Comparing their schedule to Georgia's is like night and day.

Based on the evidence at hand, its not that far-fetched to see SC win 6 SEC games in 2008. We shall see.

 

[bulldogbaja]

LSU has a freakin 4-star QB that has had to sit behind Russell, Flynn, and a very talented convict.

</p>I'm not sure if you're implying that Perrilloux is still on the team or not, LSU does have Jarrett Lee who redshirted last year. He has never played a down of college football, and he'll be their only quarterback this year. That's the equivalent of us pinning our entire hopes on Robert Elliot as our only RB this year (4-star recruit, redshirted last year). Check out their depth chart, from Dandy Don:

QB</p>

No. 12 Jarrett Lee, 6'3", 210, RSFR
No. 14 Andrew Hatch, 6'3", 205, Jr.

Where are the rest of them, you ask? Well, they're still seniors in high school (at Tupelo). Not a lot of help. Ever heard of Andrew Hatch? Neither have I, nor have Rivals or Scout.

Oh, by the way, we have a 4-star QB as well- he's second string.

So, with Carroll, Lee, and Relf, yeah, I'd say we're in better shape at the QB position.

</p>

 

[williecunningham]

Comparing the rosters is like night and day, too. Come to think of it, comparing the coaches is like night and day. Spurrier was bad *** when he didn't have to rely on his charming personality to attract talent. Now, not so much.

 

[patdog]

But there is no 17'ing way Georgia is going to go on the road and beat every one of those teams.

If you'll note, I'm not picking them to win all 4 of those games. I'm picking them 11-1.

They have to play on the road 4 straight weeks. They are going to slip up, and probably more than once.

One of those 4 is a neutral game and another is at Kentucky. Remember, the same Kentucky we beat the hell out of in Lexington last year. Oh wait, this year's Kentucky won't be as good as that one was. And if you think Florida is going to "remember" what Georgia did early in last year's game, remember that they had like 50 minutes to do something about it LAST year and couldn't. And Jacksonville is definitely a neutral site. It's just across the GA-FL border and the crowds are always 50-50.

As for USC, we'll see. Maybe this will be their year. But with a poor OL, bad QB, no RBs, and an offense that everyone knows how to defend, I see them having a lot of problems scoring points AGAIN. A great WR and TE aren't much good if you can't get them the ball.

 

[Southdowns]

Bulldogbaja- you do realize that those two losses were both in triple overtime right? Couldn't you say that LSU should've won more as well?

 

[HD6]

best WR and TE>Best RB and QB? Not to mention I'm pretty sure Percy Harvin didn't transfer to South Carolina.

I seem to remember Auburn going on the road last year with 3 freshmen linemen and beating Florida and Arkansas. They had LSU beat as well, it wasn't the offense's fault that game. The only game they were blown out? You guessed it, Georgia.

 

[williecunningham]

But there is no 17'ing way Georgia is going to go on the road and beat every one of those teams.

If you'll note, I'm not picking them to win all 4 of those games. I'm picking them 11-1.

They have to play on the road 4 straight weeks. They are going to slip up, and probably more than once.

One of those 4 is a neutral game and another is at Kentucky. Remember, the same Kentucky we beat the hell out of in Lexington last year. Oh wait, this year's Kentucky won't be as good as that one was. And if you think Florida is going to "remember" what Georgia did early in last year's game, remember that they had like 50 minutes to do something about it LAST year and couldn't. And Jacksonville is definitely a neutral site. It's just across the GA-FL border and the crowds are always 50-50.

As for USC, we'll see. Maybe this will be their year. But with a poor OL, bad QB, no RBs, and an offense that everyone knows how to defend, I see them having a lot of problems scoring points AGAIN. A great WR and TE aren't much good if you can't get them the ball.

</p>That is a great point about SC's offense. Everyone pointed the finger at the SC defense, but it was Stevie Wonder's (as in he's too blind to change anything) offense that threw a prolonged shutout during their second half slide. Based on the SEC team statistics, their offense was every bit as bad as their defense. You could even go so far to say that the defense suffered after losing their best player to injury. I may be wrong, but I don't remember the same thing happening on the offensive side.

 

[Bulldog Backer]

...aren't fully developed yet, but at this early moment in time, I'll make some observations:

1. Auburn will take a few games to get their new spread option offense going, but by year end it will be cranking good numbers. I see them as the team to beat in the West this year.
2. LSU has great athletes at every position. They have more athletes than anyone in the SEC. They will be breaking in redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee as QB, and other than being highly recruited, I know nothing about him. The time to catch LSU is early.
3. MSU has more talent this year than last year, and will be a better team. I think our defense will be better. I think our offense will also be better, maybe much better.
4. Alabama has a very talented, highly paid, group of freshmen coming in. Bama and State's game will determine the outcome of their respective positions in the SEC West. I think we win again.
5. Ole Miss will be much better, but not enough to overcome depth problems and a weak secondary. They have too many "one deep" positions, like QB, WR, OL, and CB. They will have an excellent run defense, but will be beaten deep regularly.
6. Arkansas lost arguably the best RB tandem in the SEC since Little Train and Bo. They have a coach who likes to throw, a QB with a questionable arm, and not much experience at WR. They also have a very good run blocking offensive line, but questionable in pass blocking. Their defense should be better.

If I had to choose today, that would be my best guess. I reserve the right to make corrections by the end of August, based on fall practice, and injuries.

 

[patdog]

Both had innovative schemes that were dominant for a decade or so. But both were unwilling to change once people caught up to their schemes.

 

[Hector.sixpack]

But both were unwilling to change once people caught up to their schemes.

Spurrier has been trying to play catch up with players- and he's recruited well and will eventually win the East. To say his scheme hasn't changed, we'll that may be true in a general sense but I believe he's smart enough to try different things and get the ball into playmakers hands. Once he finds a QB and two WR- look out, and this may be the year. Joe Lee Dunn was so predictable in 3rd down situations, plus he didn't want to recruit. Comparing the two is a bit of a stretch.</p>

 

[patdog]

But it's not like he inherited a program with no talent. Granny Clampett had them at 6-5 the year before Visor Boy took over. In 3 years, there's been no improvement. And the decline in Spurrier's coaching ability is something I noticed in his last couple of years at Florida. No reason for a talent deficit there.

Once he finds a QB and two WR

Spurrier's been looking for a QB for a decade now and he still hasn't found one. Who can forget him running QBs in and out of games at Florida his last couple of years.

 

[Hector.sixpack]

I think he is changing. He's handing over play calling to his son- I think this will help him run the show more efficiently, similiar to Richt at Georgia. It seems he's put more effort into recruiting- well, he had to. I'll say this though, the QB problem is his responsibility, and this is mighty Spurrier's fourth year- it's time for him to do some damage.

 

[patdog]

I never thought I'd see that day come. I'm sure he's doing it to help his son's chances of taking over when he retires, but still, that's a big sacrifice for him.

 

[Hector.sixpack]

Steve Jr. era begins</p>

 

[williecunningham]

But it's not like he inherited a program with no talent. Granny Clampett had them at 6-5 the year before Visor Boy took over. In 3 years, there's been no improvement. And the decline in Spurrier's coaching ability is something I noticed in his last couple of years at Florida. No reason for a talent deficit there.

Once he finds a QB and two WR

Spurrier's been looking for a QB for a decade now and he still hasn't found one. Who can forget him running QBs in and out of games at Florida his last couple of years.

</p>Good point on the tail end of his Florida career. He knew what he was doing when he got out. That team that Zook inherited had probably less talent than any team during the Spurrier era. And then he was blind enough to think his fun n' gun would work in the NFL. Which is why he is in what amounts to a no win situation at SC.

 

[Coach34]

"best WR and TE>Best RB and QB? Not to mention I'm pretty sure Percy Harvin didn't transfer to South Carolina."

2007 stats:

Kenny McKinley 77 catches...968 yards...9 TD's

Percy Harvin 59 catches....858 yards...4 TD's

Just sayin Little Ceaser