College Football Playoffs moving forward

[psuro]

Since I had two cross country trips, I was able to do a lot of daydreaming thinking about the CFP moving forward.

So, given relatively recent history, assumptions about the teams moving forward, recruiting/NIL committments, coaching, scheduling and mostly - perception, here is my breakdown of potential future CFP teams on an annualized basis moving forward. This is whom I think should have a better than even chance of making the playoffs over the next few years.

75% chance or greater of making the CFP on a regular basis - based on winning their conference or being highly ranked.

Big Ten
Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan

SEC
Georgia, Texas, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss

ACC
Miami, Clemson, SMU

Big 12
BYU, Utah, Arizona State

PAC 12 (not sure when they will start playing as a P5 conference)
Boise State

Independent
Notre Dame

G5
Tulane, UNLV


50% chance of making the CFP on a regular basis - based on being ranked high enough

Big Ten
USC, Washington, Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin

SEC
aTm, Tennessee, Mizzou, Oklahoma, Florida, Auburn

ACC
Florida State, UNC, Louisville

Big 12
Colorado, Baylor, Iowa State, OK State, WVU

PAC 12 (not sure when they will start playing as a P5 conference)
Oregon State

Independent
None

G5
Liberty, Appalachain State

 

[MaconNitt]

looks reasonable, only comment Ole Miss listed as both 75% and 50%

 

[LionJim]

I would think that it’d be a crapshoot since we can’t predict the amount of NIL money each school will have to play with.

 

[BobPSU92]

How about moving backward? Could give pitt* a chance.



* Living in my head RENT.-FREE. .

 

[psuro]

looks reasonable, only comment Ole Miss listed as both 75% and 50%

Thanks - edited it.

 

[psuro]

I would think that it’d be a crapshoot since we can’t predict the amount of NIL money each school will have to play with.

That is fair, but I was looking at the overall chances of each team.

 

[Grant Green]

Since I had two cross country trips, I was able to do a lot of daydreaming thinking about the CFP moving forward.

So, given relatively recent history, assumptions about the teams moving forward, recruiting/NIL committments, coaching, scheduling and mostly - perception, here is my breakdown of potential future CFP teams on an annualized basis moving forward. This is whom I think should have a better than even chance of making the playoffs over the next few years.

75% chance or greater of making the CFP on a regular basis - based on winning their conference or being highly ranked.

Big Ten
Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan

SEC
Georgia, Texas, Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss

ACC
Miami, Clemson, SMU

Big 12
BYU, Utah, Arizona State

PAC 12 (not sure when they will start playing as a P5 conference)
Boise State

Independent
Notre Dame

G5
Tulane, UNLV


50% chance of making the CFP on a regular basis - based on being ranked high enough

Big Ten
USC, Washington, Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin

SEC
aTm, Tennessee, Mizzou, Oklahoma, Florida, Auburn

ACC
Florida State, UNC, Louisville

Big 12
Colorado, Baylor, Iowa State, OK State, WVU

PAC 12 (not sure when they will start playing as a P5 conference)
Oregon State

Independent
None

G5
Liberty, Appalachain State

Agree with the teams in your tiers, but the percentages are too high. For example, PSU was about a 60-65% fav to make the playoff this season based on betting odds.
LSU and Bama had about a 50% chance to make it this season. Clemson was about 65%
I would guess that only about 3 to 5 teams will be in the 75% or above tier.
The teams you have in the 50% tier would probably be 25 to 50%.

 

[PSU Mike]

I’m totally lost. With those probabilities you’re looking at north of 20 teams included on average.

 

[psuro]

Agree with the teams in your tiers, but the percentages are too high. For example, PSU was about a 60-65% fav to make the playoff this season based on betting odds.
LSU and Bama had about a 50% chance to make it this season. Clemson was about 65%
I would guess that only about 3 to 5 teams will be in the 75% or above tier.
The teams you have in the 50% tier would probably be 25 to 50%.

I broke it out for each conferenc, so the 75% category generally equates to the teams that have a very good chance of winning their conference or being ranked very high based on W/L, If only 3-5 teams are 75% or higher, then that means you are assuming those teams win their conferences every year.

Additonally, Vegas betting odds are not equivalent to what my parameters were for assessing each confernces best chances for making the playoffs. Plus, Vegas wasn't sitting in a coach seat with a screaming kid behind it and having to down double scotches to get through the misery.

 

[psuro]

I’m totally lost. With those probabilities you’re looking at north of 20 teams with included on average.

The shuffling of teams in each conference based on W/L could result in different teams. In August of this past year, no one would have thought Arizona State or SMU would have made the playoffs, or that Alabama would have not.

Some teams will knock the other ones out, and some will survive their conferences and be ranked high enough to get into the playoffs.

 

[Grant Green]

I broke it out for each conference - if only 3-5 teams are 75% or higher, then that means you are assuming those teams win their conferences every year.

Additonally, Vegas betting odds are not equivalent to what my parameters were for assessing each confernces best chances for making the playoffs. Plus, Vegas wasn't sitting in a coach seat with a screaming kid behind it and downing double scotches to get through the misery.

Hahaha! I'd go one more scotch.
Yeah, I see that you are trying to speculate that the top team in the conference could change over the years so you can't always plug in one exact team at the 75%+ tier. Maybe I would go with 50-75% for the top tier and 25-50% for the second tier to give more of an average range?

 

[Nothing Special]

Thought provoking. I'm guessing you are not sold on Indiana sustaining its resurgence?

 

[WVilleLion23]

I think committee needs to rethink who gets the top 4 seeds in the future. Maybe not automatic based on winning conference.

 

[LB99]

I think committee needs to rethink who gets the top 4 seeds in the future. Maybe not automatic based on winning conference.

Just give the top 4 ranked teams at the end of the year the bye. Most of the time that may be four of the conference winners anyway. Some years it won’t. This year it would not have. Boise and ASU would not have gotten a bye and that is reasonable. FYI, I love this playoff format. It is so much better than the politicized top 4 picks plus bowl games with opt outs. Anybody who isn’t enjoying this, isn’t trying.

 

[psuro]

Thought provoking. I'm guessing you are not sold on Indiana sustaining its resurgence?

i am not.