Conference Championship Game Losers

[LionJim]

I’m sure this has been asked and answered but I haven’t seen it. Suppose that Team A and Team B are playing in the conference championship game and the week before the game Team B is ranked so as to put them in the CFB playoffs. Team A beats Team B in the championship game. Is there a scenario in which B misses the playoffs?

 

[TiogaLion]

Yes, for all conferences not named SEC.

 

[PSUFTG]

Certainly - and it could happen this year

Both the Big12 and the ACC will likely only get ione spot (their CCG winner).
Heading into the CCG for each, there is a good chance that one of the contestants will be in the Top 12, and the other will not.... so upsets (by ranking) in either of those games probably means the CCG loser drops out of the top 12


Example... Miami remains in the top 12 - and plays, lets say, SMU or Clemson in the ACCCCG and loses - Miami is likely out

Right now, in the Big 12, I am not sure if any of them are top 12 - but one likely will be headed into the CCG (likely BYU or Colorado - possibly ASU). If the higher ranked team loses in the CCG, same deal.

Losing the CCG could (but less likely) knock out an SEC team as well..... but much less likely since they will be getting 4 or 5 in, and I expect the committee will use a lot of discretion to NOT have the CCG loser get knocked out (but it would not be beyond the realm either). Same with the Big10 (or any other conference, moving forward, that will have multiple slots in the playoff)

 

[LionJim]

I just realized that the answer is a hard yes for the “weaker” conferences. In case you need reminding, I’ve never been afraid of asking stupid questions. Every time I prepared to enter my dissertation advisor’s office I would tell myself, “Now, Jim, don’t be afraid of sounding like an idiot.” I’d then knock on the door.

 

[laKavosiey-st lion]

I never met an academic advisor. What’d you talk about?

 

[LionJim]

I never met an academic advisor. What’d you talk about?

Cyclic cohomology. Serre spectral sequences. Discrete valuation domains.

 

[CbusLion]

Definitely. They will "consider" the CCG performance into the selection and seedings. If you get blown out, you're more likely to drop further down from consideration. They wouldn't want to eliminate someone after a competitive loss to a presumably strong conference champion.

But I believe matchups and viewership will be considered as much as anything.

 

[LionJim]

I actually was thinking of the B1G more than anything else. I don’t see it happening this year in the B1G. PSU isn’t going to the CCG. (Mathematically they have a chance but it’s too farfetched.)

 

[Keyser Soze 16802]

I'm wondering if a one loss Indiana team gets left out if they lose by a big margin Saturday at the horseshoe

Let's say it's 49-10. Can IU really make the playoff after getting creamed by the one good team they play? (And given their lack of a big brand)

 

[LionJim]

I'm wondering if a one loss Indiana team gets left out if they lose by a big margin Saturday at the horseshoe

Let's say it's 49-10. Can IU really make the playoff after getting creamed by the one good team they play? (And given their lack of a big brand)

If this happens we’ll see just how significant the SEC bias is.

 

[laKavosiey-st lion]

Cyclic cohomology. Serre spectral sequences. Discrete valuation domains.

wut? I often wonder what you n 1 would talk about

 

[Erial_Lion]

If this happens we’ll see just how significant the SEC bias is.

Why would it need to be "bias" that leaves them out? If they get crushed on Saturday, then there is certainly an argument to drop them considerably.

Strikes against them...

• they end up playing 8 home and 4 road games.
• Their non-conference consisted of FIU, Western Illinois, and Charlotte. So their toughest non-conference game was at home against FIU who is 3-7 (2-4) in Conference USA.
• There are currently 7 Big Ten teams with a winning record in conference. Of those other 6 teams, Indiana will have played one of them (Ohio St).
• Their 4 road games are Purdue 1-9 (0-7), Northwestern 4-6 (2-5), Michigan St 4-6 (2-5), and UCLA 4-6 (3-5).
• Their best wins are by 14 at home over Washington 6-5 (4-4), and by 5 at home over Michigan 5-5 (3-4).

If Ohio St pounds them, aren't there pretty legitimate reasons to not see them as one of the top 10-11 teams in the country?

 

[Psu00]

I'm wondering if a one loss Indiana team gets left out if they lose by a big margin Saturday at the horseshoe

Let's say it's 49-10. Can IU really make the playoff after getting creamed by the one good team they play? (And given their lack of a big brand)

I think their lack of ‘brand’ would kill them and they’d be out. If they lose to OSU and it’s relatively close they are still in the bubble IMO. I think the committee would rank the SEC teams and ND above Indiana.

There will be a push to not let teams get knocked out by losses in conference championship games. They have already started saying a team that plays that extra game shouldn’t be punished for it. The reality is that likely the Big12 and ACC teams will be punished for losing that game but the Big Ten and SEC teams will not be significantly affected by it.

 

[psuro]

Cyclic cohomology. Serre spectral sequences. Discrete valuation domains.

 

[LionJim]

wut? I often wonder what you n 1 would talk about

Football, NFL and Penn State. You.

 

[Woodpecker]

Cyclic cohomology. Serre spectral sequences. Discrete valuation domains.

So just idle chit-chat? Nothing of substance?

 

[LionJim]

Why would it need to be "bias" that leaves them out? If they get crushed on Saturday, then there is certainly an argument to drop them considerably.

You’re always so precise with your vocabulary, fair enough. Suppose Indiana loses to OSU by 10. Putting an SEC team in over UI would be evidence of a bias, I’d say.

 

[LionJim]

You’re always so precise with your vocabulary, fair enough. Suppose Indiana loses to OSU by 10. Putting an SEC team in over UI would be evidence of a bias, I’d say.

Another thing going in Indiana’s favor is that it seems Notre Dame gets in if they win out. If Indiana can say that their OSU loss is a “better” loss than Notre Dame’s loss to NIU, then that will carry weight.

 

[Erial_Lion]

You’re always so precise with your vocabulary, fair enough. Suppose Indiana loses to OSU by 10. Putting an SEC team in over UI would be evidence of a bias, I’d say.

If they lose by 10, then I'd expect them to open on the road but make the playoff. But if they lose by 3+ touchdowns, the committee has a pretty tough job in figuring out what to actually do with them (based on their resume that I added when I edited post 12 in this thread).

 

[Erial_Lion]

Another thing going in Indiana’s favor is that it seems Notre Dame gets in if they win out. If Indiana can say that their OSU loss is a “better” loss than Notre Dame’s loss to NIU, then that will carry weight.

I'm sure they'll be making that argument...but in looking at the full resume, Notre Dame would have that win at Texas A&M, a win at home over Louisville, and a neutral site win over Army, which are all looked at more favorably than Indiana's best win.

 

[LionJim]

So just idle chit-chat? Nothing of substance?

To mathematicians, this is “idle chit-chat.” If you put two mathematicians together at a party, they’ll talk mathematics.

This one time I went to an American Mathematical Society meeting and it’s the first day, everyone’s arriving. I’ve been there for fifteen minutes when my American Sign Language interpreter turns to me and says, “I’ve been to a hundred of these meetings, all fields. At every other meeting you have people greeting each other with ‘Did you have a nice flight?’ or ‘How are the kids?’ Here, they start right up with mathematics.” We're odd that way.

 

[bdgan]

Certainly - and it could happen this year

Both the Big12 and the ACC will likely only get ione spot (their CCG winner).
Heading into the CCG for each, there is a good chance that one of the contestants will be in the Top 12, and the other will not.... so upsets (by ranking) in either of those games probably means the CCG loser drops out of the top 12


Example... Miami remains in the top 12 - and plays, lets say, SMU or Clemson in the ACCCCG and loses - Miami is likely out

Right now, in the Big 12, I am not sure if any of them are top 12 - but one likely will be headed into the CCG (likely BYU or Colorado - possibly ASU). If the higher ranked team loses in the CCG, same deal.

Losing the CCG could (but less likely) knock out an SEC team as well..... but much less likely since they will be getting 4 or 5 in, and I expect the committee will use a lot of discretion to NOT have the CCG loser get knocked out (but it would not be beyond the realm either). Same with the Big10 (or any other conference, moving forward, that will have multiple slots in the playoff)

I think the ACC gets 2 teams from (MIA, SMU, & CLEM)

 

[Woodpecker]

To mathematicians, this is “idle chit-chat.” If you put two mathematicians together at a party, they’ll talk mathematics.

This one time I went to an American Mathematical Society meeting and it’s the first day, everyone’s arriving. I’ve been there for fifteen minutes when my American Sign Language interpreter turns to me and says, “I’ve been to a hundred of these meetings, all fields. At every other meeting you have people greeting each other with ‘Did you have a nice flight?’ or ‘How are the kids?’ Here, they start right up with mathematics.” Were odd that way.

That adds up. I suppose talking about other things would be considered derivative. You are certainly a part of a unique set.

 

[LionJim]

That adds up. I suppose talking about other things would be considered derivative. You are certainly a part of a unique set.

You betcha.

 

[bdgan]

Why would it need to be "bias" that leaves them out? If they get crushed on Saturday, then there is certainly an argument to drop them considerably.

Strikes against them...

• they end up playing 8 home and 4 road games.
• Their non-conference consisted of FIU, Western Illinois, and Charlotte. So their toughest non-conference game was at home against FIU who is 3-7 (2-4) in Conference USA.
• There are currently 7 Big Ten teams with a winning record in conference. Of those other 6 teams, Indiana will have played one of them (Ohio St).
• Their 4 road games are Purdue 1-9 (0-7), Northwestern 4-6 (2-5), Michigan St 4-6 (2-5), and UCLA 4-6 (3-5).
• Their best wins are by 14 at home over Washington 6-5 (4-4), and by 5 at home over Michigan 5-5 (3-4).

If Ohio St pounds them, aren't there pretty legitimate reasons to not see them as one of the top 10-11 teams in the country?

CFN's latest percentage odds to make the playoffs:

AAC: Army 59%, Tulane 13%
ACC: Miami 64%, SMU 62%, Clemson 12%
B12: BYU 55%, Colorado 23%
B10: OR 99%, IND 90%, PSU 67%, OSU 65%
MW: Boise 62%
SEC: TX 61%, ALA 29%, MISS 24%, TENN 31%, GA 32%, A&M 17%
IND: ND 62%

 

[Erial_Lion]

To mathematicians, this is “idle chit-chat.” If you put two mathematicians together at a party, they’ll talk mathematics.

This one time I went to an American Mathematical Society meeting and it’s the first day, everyone’s arriving. I’ve been there for fifteen minutes when my American Sign Language interpreter turns to me and says, “I’ve been to a hundred of these meetings, all fields. At every other meeting you have people greeting each other with ‘Did you have a nice flight?’ or ‘How are the kids?’ Here, they start right up with mathematics.” Were odd that way.

Reading a lot of the stuff you post just reinforces that I simply got a degree in Math, but I'm not a "Mathematician". Plus, Statistics is probably my favorite part of math.

 

[Erial_Lion]

CFN's latest percentage odds to make the playoffs:

AAC: Army 59%, Tulane 13%
ACC: Miami 64%, SMU 62%, Clemson 12%
B12: BYU 55%, Colorado 23%
B10: OR 99%, IND 90%, PSU 67%, OSU 65%
MW: Boise 62%
SEC: TX 61%, ALA 29%, MISS 24%, TENN 31%, GA 32%, A&M 17%
IND: ND 62%

They need to go back to the drawing board with some of their calculations.

 

[LionJim]

Reading a lot of the stuff you post just reinforces that I simply got a degree in Math, but I'm not a "Mathematician". Plus, Statistics is probably my favorite part of math.

Reading a lot of the stuff you post just reinforces that I simply got a degree in Math, but I'm not a "Mathematician". Plus, Statistics is probably my favorite part of math.

it’s more honest for me to say that I have a doctorate than it is to say that I’m a mathematician. Mathematicians create mathematics. I didn’t even manage to get my dissertation published.

 

[bdgan]

They need to go back to the drawing board with some of their calculations.

IMO:

AAC: 1
ACC: 2
B12: 1
B10: 4
MW: 1
SEC: 4
IND: 1

That's 14 so 2 of those have to go. The first is probably AAC Army or Tulane. After that it comes down to ND, somebody from the B10 (PSU or IND), or somebody from the SEC.

 

[EricStratton-RushChairman]

I’m sure this has been asked and answered but I haven’t seen it. Suppose that Team A and Team B are playing in the conference championship game and the week before the game Team B is ranked so as to put them in the CFB playoffs. Team A beats Team B in the championship game. Is there a scenario in which B misses the playoffs?

to me the question is this... does a 2 loss team that then losses the conf champ game drop below a 2 loss team in same conf that didn't have to play in conf champ game... could a team be at a disadvatage making its conf champ game. Perhaps is the 3 loss team lost to the 2 loss team you could justify this (GA losses champ game and Alabama get is instead of GA)

 

[LionJim]

They need to go back to the drawing board with some of their calculations.

Well, let’s look at the PSU 67%. That would roughly line up with an 80% chance of PSU beating Minnesota, 80% chance of PSU beating Maryland, and a 2-loss PSU not making the CFP.

 

[Grant Green]

They need to go back to the drawing board with some of their calculations.

CFN's latest percentage odds to make the playoffs:

AAC: Army 59%, Tulane 13%
ACC: Miami 64%, SMU 62%, Clemson 12%
B12: BYU 55%, Colorado 23%
B10: OR 99%, IND 90%, PSU 67%, OSU 65%
MW: Boise 62%
SEC: TX 61%, ALA 29%, MISS 24%, TENN 31%, GA 32%, A&M 17%
IND: ND 62%

Yeah, I wouldn't put a ton of faith in Pete Fiutak.

 

[1995PSUGrad]

I saw someone post at one point that championship game losses would not count against teams when it comes to seeding in the Playoff, but I haven't seen that myself anywhere.

I think Ohio State and whatever SEC team plays Texas (presumably) in their respective championship games are in an interesting situation. If Ohio State or the SEC team loses to Texas, they will have an additional loss. Ohio State will then have 2 losses putting them behind PSU and Indiana, both teams they will have beaten (I assume they will win this weekend). Does the committee really put OSU behind PSU and Indiana? If that's the case then you would think that a 3-loss loser of the SEC Championship runs the risk of not making the playoff because there will be a number of 2-loss SEC teams.

I don't see either of those things happening.

 

[Grant Green]

I saw someone post at one point that championship game losses would not count against teams when it comes to seeding in the Playoff, but I haven't seen that myself anywhere.

I think Ohio State and whatever SEC team plays Texas (presumably) in their respective championship games are in an interesting situation. If Ohio State or the SEC team loses to Texas, they will have an additional loss. Ohio State will then have 2 losses putting them behind PSU and Indiana, both teams they will have beaten (I assume they will win this weekend). Does the committee really put OSU behind PSU and Indiana? If that's the case then you would think that a 3-loss loser of the SEC Championship runs the risk of not making the playoff because there will be a number of 2-loss SEC teams.

I don't see either of those things happening.

There was a post about the Army-Navy game not counting towards the rankings. Maybe that is what you are thinking of?

 

[84lion]

CFN's latest percentage odds to make the playoffs:

AAC: Army 59%, Tulane 13%
ACC: Miami 64%, SMU 62%, Clemson 12%
B12: BYU 55%, Colorado 23%
B10: OR 99%, IND 90%, PSU 67%, OSU 65%
MW: Boise 62%
SEC: TX 61%, ALA 29%, MISS 24%, TENN 31%, GA 32%, A&M 17%
IND: ND 62%

Saw "CFN" and it was like

 

[LionJim]

There was a post about the Army-Navy game not counting towards the rankings. Maybe that is what you are thinking of?

Yeah, Army-Navy won’t count. What was the rationale?

 

[Grant Green]

Yeah, Army-Navy won’t count. What was the rationale?

My guess is they needed to set the playoff schedule ASAP after conf championships games for logistics. Couldn't wait one more week since the games start on Dec 20.

 

[LionJim]

My guess is they needed to set the playoff schedule ASAP after conf championships games for logistics. Couldn't wait one more week since the games start on Dec 20.

Ah.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Well, let’s look at the PSU 67%. That would roughly line up with an 80% chance of PSU beating Minnesota, 80% chance of PSU beating Maryland, and a 2-loss PSU not making the CFP.

I'm mostly looking at Ohio St at 65% (much, much too low), Amry/Tulane/Boise adding up to 1.34 (chances are much lower that >1 of those teams will make it), Texas at 61% (again, much too low), Georgia at 32% (is this serious?), Clemson too low, BYU WAY too high, etc. The entire SEC there adds up to about 2 spots. It's pretty much a terrible estimate, and I have no idea how he possibly came up with it.

 

[Moogy]

wut? I often wonder what you n 1 would talk about

That's low-key creepy.