Conference Championship Game Losers

[CbusLion]

it’s more honest for me to say that I have a doctorate than it is to say that I’m a mathematician. Mathematicians create mathematics. I didn’t even manage to get my dissertation published.

You can publish it on this message board, pal! We'll all read it, won't we fellas?

 

[Grant Green]

I'm mostly looking at Ohio St at 65% (much, much too low), Amry/Tulane/Boise adding up to 1.34 (chances are much lower that >1 of those teams will make it), Texas at 61% (again, much too low), Georgia at 32% (is this serious?), Clemson too low, BYU WAY too high, etc. The entire SEC there adds up to about 2 spots. It's pretty much a terrible estimate, and I have no idea how he possibly came up with it.

The funny thing is that Pete is a self admitted P4 snob. He says it routinely in radio spots.

 

[Bkmtnittany1]

Yes, for all conferences not named SEC.

And for teams not named Ohio State or Michigan!

 

[PSUFTG]

They need to go back to the drawing board with some of their calculations.

Those are absolutely inane.

Truly no better than drawing numbers randomly out of a hat - maybe worse.

 

[Fac]

Cyclic cohomology. Serre spectral sequences. Discrete valuation domains.

Oh, the usual stuff.

 

[PSUFTG]

Yeah, Army-Navy won’t count. What was the rationale?

Too late - the die will have already been cast wrt playoff seedings

 

[Fac]

That's low-key creepy.

Dude, it's laKavosiey-st lion.

 

[PSUFTG]

I'm wondering if a one loss Indiana team gets left out if they lose by a big margin Saturday at the horseshoe

Let's say it's 49-10. Can IU really make the playoff after getting creamed by the one good team they play? (And given their lack of a big brand)

If there is going to be a big talking point after the final seedings - I think that is the most likely one to cause a big kerfluffle (for 48 hours, until the next cause celebre).

IU getting stomped would present the committee with: "IU, or a fifth SEC team?"... depending on how the remainder of the SEC schedule plays out, that could be, let's say, Tennessee or Ole Miss.

There would be a lot of talk in favor of the Tenn/Ole Miss choice (and my gut feel is they would go with the extra SEC team - but who knows).

Compound that with - if you keep IU in the rankings if they get whacked by OSU - assuming two of PSU/OSU/Oregon end up 5 and 6 in the slotting (pretty likely two of those three end up in the 5/6 slots, which ones depending on the outcome of the Big10 CCG) - keeping IU in the bracket, which would likely be at 11 or 12, would mean either PSU/IU, or an OSU/IU rematch, or IU/Oregon in round 1. No one (aside from IU fans) wants to see that. If they do keep IU under those circumstances, they would probably have to monkey with the slottings (though they would never admit it) in order to match up IU w a non-Big10 team.

 

[PSUFTG]

You’re always so precise with your vocabulary, fair enough. Suppose Indiana loses to OSU by 10. Putting an SEC team in over UI would be evidence of a bias, I’d say.

I expect 90% of the country already views Tenn or Ole Miss as a better team than Indiana.... even more so after IU loses to OSU (assuming that happens). So, I think 90% of fans would simply view it as "better team in" (assuming Tenn and Miss, and UGA and Bama - all win out - which is not a given).
That said, I'd love to see IU knock of OSU - but you'd have to give me 10-1 odds to even begin to think of betting it

 

[PSUFTG]

I think the ACC gets 2 teams from (MIA, SMU, & CLEM)

Who knows, but I would gladly wager against it - even at 4-1 odds.

The only real chance of that is if Miami makes it to the CCG, and loses but stays in the top 10 (not 12 - since the ACC champ and the G5 team would jump them by rule)

Miami w 2 losses - and not a single quality win - staying in the top 10? I'd say "there's a chance" but that's it.

 

[BobPSU92]

I’m sure this has been asked and answered but I haven’t seen it. Suppose that Team A and Team B are playing in the conference championship game and the week before the game Team B is ranked so as to put them in the CFB playoffs. Team A beats Team B in the championship game. Is there a scenario in which B misses the playoffs?

“Objection! Asked and answered!”

 

[Erial_Lion]

Miami w 2 losses - and not a single quality win - staying in the top 10? I'd say "there's a chance" but that's it.

Reminds me of a time someone asked me if there is any chance to win long term at sports betting without modeling or making your own numbers. I said sure, there is a chance...but the chances are about the same as me leaving my wife for Kate Upton.

 

[PSUQbKeeper]

it’s more honest for me to say that I have a doctorate than it is to say that I’m a mathematician. Mathematicians create mathematics. I didn’t even manage to get my dissertation published.

I do not have a degree in math, I am more Urkel than Urschel

 

[LionJim]

I do not have a degree in math, I am more Urkel than Urschel

Likewise. Urschel would kick my *** two different ways.

 

[PSU89er]

I think this could be handled very easily. The loser of the ACC and B12 championship games are out. Thats basically already acknowledge. The loser of the B10/SEC games is in. This is also a given as teams in 3rd place are basically locked in as well.

The loser of the B10 game is the 5 seed, meaning that possibly a 11-2 OSU is rated ahead of any 1 loss team, and the loser of the SEC game is the highest rated SEC team that gets in outside of the champ. It would mean hosting a 7/10 game (ND falls out) or 8/9 games (ND in). To me, that is not penalizing the loser of the championship games, by getting them a home game. It does mean that IU falls to at least 9 at minimum with a loss to OSU, or OSU falls that far if they lose to IU.

 

[blion72]

I think this could be handled very easily. The loser of the ACC and B12 championship games are out. Thats basically already acknowledge. The loser of the B10/SEC games is in. This is also a given as teams in 3rd place are basically locked in as well.

The loser of the B10 game is the 5 seed, meaning that possibly a 11-2 OSU is rated ahead of any 1 loss team, and the loser of the SEC game is the highest rated SEC team that gets in outside of the champ. It would mean hosting a 7/10 game (ND falls out) or 8/9 games (ND in). To me, that is not penalizing the loser of the championship games, by getting them a home game. It does mean that IU falls to at least 9 at minimum with a loss to OSU, or OSU falls that far if they lose to IU

for the BIG and SEC to each get 4 in, then only 1 ACC and 1 BIG12 assuming ND is in. If either of those conferences get 2 in and ND in, then someone not making it from BIG/SEC.

 

[Erial_Lion]

for the BIG and SEC to each get 4 in, then only 1 ACC and 1 BIG12 assuming ND is in. If either of those conferences get 2 in and ND in, then someone not making it from BIG/SEC.

Based on where things currently stand, the B12 and ACC only getting one team each seems pretty realistic. Miami is at 8, and seems like the only team capable of getting an at-large bid...but that involves them losing in the title game, which should drop them to some degree. The highest ranked Big 12 team is BYU at 14. Highly unlikely that they could still take another loss and remain in the top 10-11.

 

[doctornick]

I expect them to treat CCG as largely a “no game” for the losing teams unless it’s a blowout or maybe if the winner is much lower ranked. I don’t think the CFP Committee wants to be a position where they would discourage CCG participation

 

[PSUQbKeeper]

I expect them to treat CCG as largely a “no game” for the losing teams unless it’s a blowout or maybe if the winner is much lower ranked. I don’t think the CFP Committee wants to be a position where they would discourage CCG participation

especially if it is an Oregon v Ohio St situation, Oregon wins and Ohio St has only lost to one team all year even if it was two games, Oregon loses and it is to a team that they beat earlier in the year and it is their only loss

 

[CbusLion]

If there is going to be a big talking point after the final seedings - I think that is the most likely one to cause a big kerfluffle (for 48 hours, until the next cause celebre).

IU getting stomped would present the committee with: "IU, or a fifth SEC team?"... depending on how the remainder of the SEC schedule plays out, that could be, let's say, Tennessee or Ole Miss.

There would be a lot of talk in favor of the Tenn/Ole Miss choice (and my gut feel is they would go with the extra SEC team - but who knows).

Compound that with - if you keep IU in the rankings if they get whacked by OSU - assuming two of PSU/OSU/Oregon end up 5 and 6 in the slotting (pretty likely two of those three end up in the 5/6 slots, which ones depending on the outcome of the Big10 CCG) - keeping IU in the bracket, which would likely be at 11 or 12, would mean either PSU/IU, or an OSU/IU rematch, or IU/Oregon in round 1. No one (aside from IU fans) wants to see that. If they do keep IU under those circumstances, they would probably have to monkey with the slottings (though they would never admit it) in order to match up IU w a non-Big10 team.

Considering they left an undefeated FSU out of the playoffs last year, there's precedent to leave IU out or do pretty much whatever they want to do.

 

[A2nit]

I'm mostly looking at Ohio St at 65% (much, much too low), Amry/Tulane/Boise adding up to 1.34 (chances are much lower that >1 of those teams will make it), Texas at 61% (again, much too low), Georgia at 32% (is this serious?), Clemson too low, BYU WAY too high, etc. The entire SEC there adds up to about 2 spots. It's pretty much a terrible estimate, and I have no idea how he possibly came up with it.

 

[A2nit]

Have you applied a p-value of 0.05?

 

[BobPSU92]

I do not have a degree in math, I am more Urkel than Urschel

 

[Metal Mike]

After reading all the posts makes me think that teams may attempt to "opt out" of a championship game. Can they do that? Not sure, but some team may try. If a team is on the bubble losing the championship game could be the reason for not making the playoffs. If nothing else losing a championship game may cause a team to drop down so they do not host a home game. The loss of money from a home game in the playoffs may cause teams to question their participation in the championship game.

 

[saturdaysarebetter]

I remember discussion about how no team that makes a conference championship game would be punished in playoff rankings if they lost, but I believe that as much as I believe a politician. Otherwise, it would lend some credence in believing the conference championship games aren't being officiated objectively to protect both schools to make the playoff.

 

[Erial_Lion]

After reading all the posts makes me think that teams may attempt to "opt out" of a championship game. Can they do that? Not sure, but some team may try. If a team is on the bubble losing the championship game could be the reason for not making the playoffs. If nothing else losing a championship game may cause a team to drop down so they do not host a home game. The loss of money from a home game in the playoffs may cause teams to question their participation in the championship game.

Teams don't have the option to "opt out" of a Championship game...and even if they did, no one in their right mind would ever actually do it.

 

[PSU89er]

Based on where things currently stand, the B12 and ACC only getting one team each seems pretty realistic. Miami is at 8, and seems like the only team capable of getting an at-large bid...

I would not sleep on Miami losing at Syracuse. It is a nightmare matchup for them. Their defense has issues and Cuse will throw the ball 60 times. If McCord plays well. Maimi might not even get in the ACC championship.