Does a path to 6 wins still exist?

[18IsTheMan]

Ok, so that's not really a question we should worry about. Our path to 6 wins is simple now: beat Wofford.

The nice problem Beamer has is that he has navigated the team into a position that 6 wins, which in the preseason most would have considered a success in light of the schedule, will now feel like a major disappointment.

Where we stand now I say 6 wins would be a very disappointing finish. 7 wins is the bare minimum level of acceptance. 8 wins would be a successful season. 9 wins would be a very strong season.

Expectations ebb and flow as the season evolves. I expect a minimum of 7 wins now. Anything less will feel flat.

 

[Sleepyhead]

While a playoff berth isn’t really possible at 9-3, I think being around the playoff discussion in the national media is the best thing for the program this season. 10-3 and a top 15 finish is very doable. Anything less than 8-4 is a disappointment imo.

 

[18IsTheMan]

While a playoff berth isn’t really possible at 9-3, I think being around the playoff discussion in the national media is the best thing for the program this season. 10-3 and a top 15 finish is very doable. Anything less than 8-4 is a disappointment imo.

I can't really see or support a playoff berth at 9-3. As I posted on here, one of my biggest objections to the expanded playoff was that you'd likely 3-loss teams get in at some point, which is absurd.

But, yes, I do agree the exposure that comes with being in the discussion would be great for the program.

If we could win out through the bowl game and go 10-4, that would be in the handful of best seasons we've ever had.

Tiny baby steps, though. Gotta beat a tough Vandy team first.

 

[18IsTheMan]

This is Beamer's toughest task yet. If he can pull this off, he will have unquestionably proved his coaching chops.

Everyone says it, but few can do it. He has to keep the team firmly grounded in the "one game at a time" mindset.

He has to get the team to flush the A&M game and keep them from looking ahead to bigger things like 7, 8 or 9 wins. Looking back is a distraction. Looking ahead is a distraction. Vandy deserves and needs 100% of our attention. If we are not thoroughly focused on this game and this game only, we'll lose.

Our sole focus needs to be on getting win #6 in hand.

 

[BftCocks09]

Ok, so that's not really a question we should worry about. Our path to 6 wins is simple now: beat Wofford.

The nice problem Beamer has is that he has navigated the team into a position that 6 wins, which in the preseason most would have considered a success in light of the schedule, will now feel like a major disappointment.

Where we stand now I say 6 wins would be a very disappointing finish. 7 wins is the bare minimum level of acceptance. 8 wins would be a successful season. 9 wins would be a very strong season.

Expectations ebb and flow as the season evolves. I expect a minimum of 7 wins now. Anything less will feel flat.

Well of course 6 wins would feel flat at this point. Excluding a bowl game, that would mean we dropped 3 of the last 4, and ending the season on a sour note always sucks regardless of how well the earlier part of the season went.

 

[BftCocks09]

This is Beamer's toughest task yet. If he can pull this off, he will have unquestionably proved his coaching chops.

Everyone says it, but few can do it. He has to keep the team firmly grounded in the "one game at a time" mindset.

He has to get the team to flush the A&M game and keep them from looking ahead to bigger things like 7, 8 or 9 wins. Looking back is a distraction. Looking ahead is a distraction. Vandy deserves and needs 100% of our attention. If we are not thoroughly focused on this game and this game only, we'll lose.

Our sole focus needs to be on getting win #6 in hand.

Debo's comments are encouraging, but there's obviously a difference between talk and play. Hopefully his comments, at least on the defensive side of the ball, is a true reflection of how the team feels. Still hungry.

 

[Benjdan]

In regards to a 3 loss team getting into the playoffs. If there are multiple 3 loss teams vying for the spot, it no doubt should go to us. The entire country knows we should only be a two loss team and give us the nod as a way to make up for the horrible officating in the LSU steal.

 

[LonghornsGamecocks]

one of my biggest objections to the expanded playoff was that you'd likely 3-loss teams get in at some point, which is absurd.

I hear where you're coming from - but there's a very real chance that sometimes a 3 loss team is one of the 12 best teams in the country and deserving of being in the playoff. I'm not saying that would necessarily be the case this year (whether that's us hypothetically, or someone else) - but it is believable in any given season I think.

 

[Mr. Belvedere]

No one predicted 7... maybe wished but not expected..

"7 wins is the bare minimum level of acceptance"

 

[18IsTheMan]

No one predicted 7... maybe wished but not expected..

"7 wins is the bare minimum level of acceptance"

As I noted in the OP, expectations change as the season evolves.

 

[will110]

I hear where you're coming from - but there's a very real chance that sometimes a 3 loss team is one of the 12 best teams in the country and deserving of being in the playoff. I'm not saying that would necessarily be the case this year (whether that's us hypothetically, or someone else) - but it is believable in any given season I think.

That's just the result of expansion to 12. The final end-of-season AP poll typically has 3 loss teams in the top 12. I know some of these teams would have picked up the 3rd or 4th loss in the bowl game, but I'm not going back to figure that out. For example:

2023: #11 Arizona (3 losses), #12 LSU (3 losses)
2022: #10 Utah (4 losses), #11 FSU (3 losses), #12 Southern Cal (3 losses)
2021: #11 Ole Miss (3 losses), #12 Utah (4 losses)
2018: #12 Kentucky (3 losses)
2017: #9 TCU (3 losses), #10 Auburn (4 losses), #11 Notre Dame (3 losses), #12 Southern Cal (3 losses)
2016: #7 Penn State (3 losses), #8 FSU (3 losses), #9 Wisconsin (3 losses), #10 Michigan (3 losses), #11 Oklahoma State (3 losses), #12 Stanford (3 losses)

There are plenty of years the NFL playoffs have teams with very mediocre, if not outright losing, records. That's ultimately the biggest "problem" with a playoff system. You're going to have teams that are clearly not the best in the country. I do think, though, that this is going to be a much better system than the previous 4 team system.

 

[will110]

No one predicted 7... maybe wished but not expected..

"7 wins is the bare minimum level of acceptance"

I did:

 

[Lurker123]

I predicted 5.

We need tonstop hyping vandy and start thinking about Missouri.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I predicted 5.

We need tonstop hyping vandy and start thinking about Missouri.

I'm not hyping them, but they beat Bama in a non-fluke performance at home. They hung with Texas. They are good enough to beat us if we don't play well. This isn't a typical Vandy team that you can play your C game and still win.

 

[Lurker123]

I'm not hyping them, but they beat Bama in a non-fluke performance at home. They hung with Texas. They are good enough to beat us if we don't play well. This isn't a typical Vandy team that you can play your C game and still win.

I still stubbornly refuse to accept the new paradigm.

 

[RUMMENIGGE]

I predicted 5.

We need tonstop hyping vandy and start thinking about Missouri.

From what I remember, I believe a few predicted that Coach Beamer's fourth year would be identical to Coach Muschamp''s fourth year at South Carolina which was a four-win season

 

[18IsTheMan]

From what I remember, I believe a few predicted that Coach Beamer's fourth year would be identical to Coach Muschamp''s fourth year at South Carolina which was a four-win season

I predicted 4-5 wins. And that seemed pretty solid after Game 1, by anyone's estimation. That didn't change much until the OU game. After that game, 6 wins seemed within reach. Now 8-9 wins seems within reach.

If we can beat Vandy, I like our momentum going into the home stretch. Just can't afford a misstep in this game.

 

[Lurker123]

I predicted 4-5 wins. And that seemed pretty solid after Game 1, by anyone's estimation. That didn't change much until the OU game. After that game, 6 wins seemed within reach. Now 8-9 wins seems within reach.

If we can beat Vandy, I like our momentum going into the home stretch. Just can't afford a misstep in this game.

Missouri, like OU, is no where near expectations.

 

[Sleepyhead]

Missouri, like OU, is no where near expectations.

They're still only a two loss team team though. They have been quiet all season, but if they got hot now and finished 10-2, they would have positioned themselves well. I think a 9-3 Carolina team would be a good option in the playoff myself. I just don't see a three loss Carolina team getting in over 3 loss teams like LSU, Bama, A&M, Ole Miss, etc. They would probably have to finished 4-5 in the SEC to be realistically in the conversation. With all three losses being in conference, I don't see how it's possible the way the standings currently sit.

 

[Lurker123]

They're still only a two loss team team though. They have been quiet all season, but if they got hot now and finished 10-2, they would have positioned themselves well. I think a 9-3 Carolina team would be a good option in the playoff myself. I just don't see a three loss Carolina team getting in over 3 loss teams like LSU, Bama, A&M, Ole Miss, etc. They would probably have to finished 4-5 in the SEC to be realistically in the conversation. With all three losses being in conference, I don't see how it's possible the way the standings currently sit.

Well, it would be almost impossible to get in over LSU or Bama, if we had the same record.

But otherwise, yeah.

 

[YorkDev]

My pre-season prediction was not number of wins per se, but number of wins to swing recruiting. 7 & a Bowl Win were my minimum. Anything beyond that (With the Bowl win) is a double helping of you favorite dessert.

 

[Debo77]

3 losses might not keep us out seeing how those losses were to teams that were at one point all in the top 10.....Clemsux losing and damn near falling out of the ranking doesn't help.....beating a top 10 A&M and Clemsux might would've overcame the 3 losses....that and we would need some teams to lose a couple of games

 

[Lurker123]

3 losses might not keep us out seeing how those losses were to teams that were at one point all in the top 10.....Clemsux losing and damn near falling out of the ranking doesn't help.....beating a top 10 A&M and Clemsux might would've overcame the 3 losses....that and we would need some teams to lose a couple of games

Serious question, does the committee count victories vs teams when you beat them, or where they end up ranked at the end?

The example being FSU. No one should be taking credit for beat8ng a "good" FSU team.

 

[FootballLVR]

Ok, so that's not really a question we should worry about. Our path to 6 wins is simple now: beat Wofford.

The nice problem Beamer has is that he has navigated the team into a position that 6 wins, which in the preseason most would have considered a success in light of the schedule, will now feel like a major disappointment.

Where we stand now I say 6 wins would be a very disappointing finish. 7 wins is the bare minimum level of acceptance. 8 wins would be a successful season. 9 wins would be a very strong season.

Expectations ebb and flow as the season evolves. I expect a minimum of 7 wins now. Anything less will feel flat.

6 is fine with me. I predicted 3-4 before the season so I'm happy with 6. Not disappointed at all. 7-8 would be wonderful.

 

[18IsTheMan]

6 is fine with me. I predicted 3-4 before the season so I'm happy with 6. Not disappointed at all. 7-8 would be wonderful.

If we only beat Wofford down the stretch, that would suck all the wind out of recruiting. We have a good tail wind going right now and need to keep it up.

 

[Debo77]

Serious question, does the committee count victories vs teams when you beat them, or where they end up ranked at the end?

The example being FSU. No one should be taking credit for beat8ng a "good" FSU team.

I dont think that can be answered.....its 13 people sitting around and may have 10 different opinions.....I've heard they have the "what have you done for me lately" opinion a lot....they take injuries into consideration and maybe dont hold it against a team as much for a loss....but who knows

 

[LonghornsGamecocks]

If we only beat Wofford down the stretch, that would suck all the wind out of recruiting. We have a good tail wind going right now and need to keep it up.

Goalposts do, in real life, move. +1,000.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I dont think that can be answered.....its 13 people sitting around and may have 10 different opinions.....I've heard they have the "what have you done for me lately" opinion a lot....they take injuries into consideration and maybe dont hold it against a team as much for a loss....but who knows

Right. It will be somewhat like the NCAA tournament. If you have two teams with fairly even records, but one stumbled to finish line and the other team was on a hot streak, they will take the team with the hot streak.