DOW Futures down another 1600

Status
Not open for further replies.

birdawg

Member
Aug 13, 2009
965
120
43
No....he didn't understand that. That is who so many in this thread were arguing with, including myself.

But I give myself credit for outing him :cool:
lol yall are wild. No one outed me. I used "tariff" when I should have used "deficit".

Waiting for any of you economic gurus to explain why US products should not be competitive in other countries. You can't do it without admitting it's better for the foreign country to make those goods themselves or buy it somewhere else. It would demonstrate the America-last policy that voters are tired of.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BulldawgFan

Maroon Eagle

Well-known member
May 24, 2006
17,038
6,344
102
Just explain why other countries should make US products less competitive in their country. Why?
They don’t have to make US products less competitive in their country if folks with similar logical skills to you are creating and marketing those aforementioned US products… **
 

mcdawg22

Well-known member
Sep 18, 2004
11,866
7,221
113
The point escapes you. You think me and my grocer have a trade imbalance lol.
I got what you were going with. Essentially they have to import things they don’t have the capability to produce or to stabilize food. If a typhoon wipes out rice production in Vietnam they will have a severe food shortage so they import that as well as meats and dairy to minimize the impact. They levy tarrifs because Importers are willing to pay it and it helps with government infrastructure to help build the country. Heavy Machinery is another importthey rely heavily on because they do not have the production capacity to keep up with demand. Vietnam will likely capitulate because they export 5 times more than they import so the threat of US consumers not paying for higher prices will cripple their economy. The concern is, they as well as loads of other countries will go down the same path that we are discussing. They’ll concentrate on domestic production for domestic consumption or find better trade partners and rice and cheap T-shirt shortages will be felt in the US. I’m joking about the T-shirts of course, but that’s the general idea the best i understand it.
 
Last edited:

L4Dawg

Well-known member
Oct 27, 2016
7,935
4,917
113
Maybe you should because that’s correct.

you’re buying a good from the grocery store in exchange for money, but the grocery store is not buying a good from you so it is a trade deficit.
By the definition usually used, the one Trump uses, yes. Now is it really? He is right about this, he got goods of value for that trade, so is it really a deficit? If trade deficits (by Trump's definition) were really so bad we would have gone under long ago. We get our money back, and then some, in other ways. Goods aren't the only thing traded internationally.
 
Last edited:

SanfordRJones

Active member
Nov 17, 2006
1,263
281
83
This is easy to say, only because anyone you see agreeing with them you would label as a Trump yes man. Did you know the US Treasury Secretary is the former head of Soros Fund Management? And that he's gay (the highest politically ranked homosexual in US history - he passed Mayor Pete to zero fanfare, but I digress)? That guy is not a blind Trump supporter. He thinks this is a good idea that can work (again, LONG TERM).

How about UAW President Shawn Fain, noted Kamala supporter? He's for the tariffs.

No, I didn't suggest that at all. In fact, I said the people against it might be right. I typically do agree with Friedman, but a generalized blanket quote about tariffs by a financial policy genius from 30 years ago doesn't exactly sway me (yet.) Most of his policy ideas were developed in the Reagan years, and the world has changed a lot since then. I'm not sure there's only one right way to move forward.

The best argument I've heard against the tariffs and the way they've been rolled out today to me is Ben Shapiro's theory. He is concerned, rightfully so, that it will scare too many people too quickly, thereby tanking the economy short term, and losing all the positive momentum going so as to make JD Vance unelectable in 2028. That is scary to me, although I doubt that's what you are worried about.

We have witnessed years of Trump turning on his political allies the moment they dare disagree with him, and you don't think the Treasury Secretary that he just picked isn't a yes man? And what does his sexuality have to do with his economic policy? And why does it matter that he worked at Soros Fund Management?

And I stand corrected on the UAW president, who I think it would be safe to assume wouldn't be a yes man, but why should it make me feel better that the head of a protectionist, leftist union supports tariffs?

The world has changed a lot, but basic economic principles have not and will not, so it's safe to heed Friedman and the others.
 
  • Like
Reactions: vandaldawg

Darryl Steight

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2022
2,431
3,878
113
Wow, that sounds wild - what EO did that?
I thought you'd never ask.

EO 13993 - "Revision of Civil Immigration Enforcement Policies and Priorities"
EO 14010 - "Creating a Comprehensive Regional Framework To Address the Causes of Migration, To Manage Migration Throughout North and Central America, and To Provide Safe and Orderly Processing of Asylum Seekers at the United States Border"
EO 14011 - "Establishment of Interagency Task Force on the Reunification of Families"
EO 14012 - "Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems and Strengthening Integration and Inclusion Efforts for New Americans"
EO 14013 - "Rebuilding and Enhancing Programs To Resettle Refugees and Planning for the Impact of Climate Change on Migration"


Then he made it even worse with:
EO 14006 - "Reforming Our Incarceration System To Eliminate the Use of Privately Operated Criminal Detention Facilities"
EO 14019 - "Promoting Access to Voting"


***The above doesn't include Biden's order to revoke Trump's "Remain in Mexico" order, which he then double-reverse-revoked on himself and put back in place in 2022 (LOL)
 

L4Dawg

Well-known member
Oct 27, 2016
7,935
4,917
113
lol yall are wild. No one outed me. I used "tariff" when I should have used "deficit".

Waiting for any of you economic gurus to explain why US products should not be competitive in other countries. You can't do it without admitting it's better for the foreign country to make those goods themselves or buy it somewhere else. It would demonstrate the America-last policy that voters are tired of.
US made goods that require a lot of labor aren't completive internationally, or at home, because our labor costs are too high. What y'all seem to be yearning for is a return to sweat shop labor in the US. Our unemployment rate is at what is considered full employment now. WE do not have the labor in sheer numbers, much less inclination, to return to that. It's not going to happen. You may see some heavy industry return, IF these tariffs persist across a couple or more administration changes. It will be heavily automated though. It will bring a FEW high paying jobs with it, but It's not going to bring back thousands of unskilled/semi-skilled jobs to Toledo, or even Mississippi. Those days are gone for good. Granny ain't going back to the pants factory.
 

Chesusdog

Well-known member
May 2, 2006
3,977
2,848
113
Agreed. The transportation industry is a great example. I'm all for capitalism, but if we went full bore on self driving freight, it would wipe out the single largest way of earning a living for men aged 18-30 who do not have a college education in this country. I do not know the solution to this problem.

Learn to weld.
 

johnson86-1

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
13,090
3,473
113
Those agencies enforce laws that Congress makes.
This is something else you can only say if you haven't dealt with government regulatory agencies. That is the way we are taught it is supposed to work, but that's not how it works. The agencies legislate, often times by rule making but there is also what is known as "rulemaking by enforcement", which the SEC is well known for but certainly has happened through other agencies also. And there is the "sue and settle" method. If the rule can be changed without Congress acting, then it's not Congress doing the legislating. But that's not even what I'm complaining about.



You talk about all this maliciousness, the only people who have the power to do that are at the very top, and often political appointees.

That is just not true at all. Malicious compliance is a term of art, and it's the most difficult to deal with when it is happening at the rank and file level. The people doing things like removing references to the Tuskagee airmen or scrubbing website references to the civil rights act or whatever are almost certainly not high level political appointees. They are pitching a hissy fit because they like race preferences and think they're good so they are going out of their way to purposefully misinterpret at least the spirit of the rule but usually the letter of it also.

Stop blaming the wrong people.
Certainly high level political appointments are sometimes problems also, particularly in Trump's first term, but I am not blaming the wrong people. You are completely missing what I am talking about which is fine. Hope you continue to be so lucky as to not have to deal with it. But the bureaucracy/administrative state has been an extra opponent for at least George W Bush and Trump instead of being subject to their control.
 

L4Dawg

Well-known member
Oct 27, 2016
7,935
4,917
113
I got what you were going with. Essentially they have to import things they don’t have the capability to produce or to stabilize food. If a typhoon wipes out rice production in Vietnam they will have a severe food shortage so they import that as well as meats and dairy to minimize the impact. They levy tarrifs because Importers are willing to pay it and it helps with government infrastructure to help build the country. Heavy Machinery is another importthey rely heavily on because they do not have the production capacity to keep up with demand. Vietnam will likely capitulate because they export 5 times more than they import so the threat of US consumers not paying for higher prices will cripple their economy. The concern is, they as well as loads of other countries will go down the same path that we are discussing. They’ll concentrate on domestic production for domestic consumption or find better trade partners and rice and cheap T-shirt shortages will be felt in the US. I’m joking about the T-shirts of course, but that’s the general idea the best i understand it.
Vietnam already capitulated, and they were turned down cold.
 
Jul 5, 2020
156
93
28
oh, we are too good to manufacture anything ? That’s for third world countries ?

service industry jobs and trading paper is not economic health. There are many reasons you want domestic manufacturing, it creates solid middle class jobs, it provides a tax base, it makes a country independent in times of crisis or war.

selling each other hamburgers is not a strong country or economy.
At the current cost of goods, most low margin manufacturing is for 3rd world/developing economies. With tariffs, manufacturing might pay better, but then the goods will be unaffordable.

The cost of living in the US makes those extreme low wage jobs untenable here. Clothing/garment assembly is too low margin to pay an American worker enough to keep pace with prices.

Also, we have had job openings in manufacturing and the muscular trades in the millions for at least a decade. There has not been a natural flow of people to fill those roles. Whether you like it or not, Americans don't want to do that work for the current pay.
 

Anon1717806835

Well-known member
Jun 7, 2024
442
1,124
93
Exactly my sentiments. I don't know how this all turns out, but I'm absolutely sure something drastic needs to be done to change the course we're on fiscally as a country.
For the love of Pete, fiscal deficits and trade deficits are not the same thing. Is someone in the Trump camp making that claim? I have seen this claim made several times here....
 

OG Goat Holder

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2022
9,714
9,054
113
This is something else you can only say if you haven't dealt with government regulatory agencies. That is the way we are taught it is supposed to work, but that's not how it works. The agencies legislate, often times by rule making but there is also what is known as "rulemaking by enforcement", which the SEC is well known for but certainly has happened through other agencies also. And there is the "sue and settle" method. If the rule can be changed without Congress acting, then it's not Congress doing the legislating. But that's not even what I'm complaining about.





That is just not true at all. Malicious compliance is a term of art, and it's the most difficult to deal with when it is happening at the rank and file level. The people doing things like removing references to the Tuskagee airmen or scrubbing website references to the civil rights act or whatever are almost certainly not high level political appointees. They are pitching a hissy fit because they like race preferences and think they're good so they are going out of their way to purposefully misinterpret at least the spirit of the rule but usually the letter of it also.


Certainly high level political appointments are sometimes problems also, particularly in Trump's first term, but I am not blaming the wrong people. You are completely missing what I am talking about which is fine. Hope you continue to be so lucky as to not have to deal with it. But the bureaucracy/administrative state has been an extra opponent for at least George W Bush and Trump instead of being subject to their control.
That's some high level conspiracy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: vandaldawg

OG Goat Holder

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2022
9,714
9,054
113
HAHAHAHAHAHA.

THIS explains so much. My grocer and I traded equal values. There is no deficit.
So tell me, why do we have a deficit with Vietnam? We paid them for their stuff, and they paid for us for ours. All equal, right?

Is that number fabricated? I'm so confused.
 
  • Like
Reactions: vandaldawg

OG Goat Holder

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2022
9,714
9,054
113
Just explain why other countries should make US products less competitive in their country. Why?
They don't make US products less competitive. They just ARE, because we are selling iphones that they can't afford. However we are buying drifit T shirts for pennies.

See the difference yet you stupid mother 17er
 
  • Like
Reactions: vandaldawg

mcdawg22

Well-known member
Sep 18, 2004
11,866
7,221
113
I’ll just say it and it has been my fear all along. This is just a theory and I certainly hope I am wrong. The focus of a balanced budget and tax cuts has been thrown around. The only way to make meaningful cuts in the US budget is touching one of the big three which nobody wants to do because of political backlash. If the tariffs are a way to get more government revenue while passing tax cuts that are disproportionately for the wealthy I will not be surprised.
 
  • Like
Reactions: vandaldawg

birdawg

Member
Aug 13, 2009
965
120
43
US made goods that require a lot of labor aren't completive internationally, or at home, because our labor costs are too high. What y'all seem to be yearning for is a return to sweat shop labor in the US. Our unemployment rate is at what is considered full employment now. WE do not have the labor in sheer numbers, much less inclination, to return to that. It's not going to happen. You may see some heavy industry return, IF these tariffs persist across a couple or more administration changes. It will be heavily automated though. It will bring a FEW high paying jobs with it, but It's not going to bring back thousands of unskilled/semi-skilled jobs to Toledo, or even Mississippi. Those days are gone for good. Granny ain't going back to the pants factory.
If that were true, why are those countries adding a tariff thus making US products
less competitive? Your logic makes zero sense. Are you saying that other countries would not purchase more US goods if it cost x% less (remove the tariff)? You're also implying that trade imbalances are based on trade quantities rather than values.

There is no push for sweatshop labor lol.

Trump haters are pushing for US products to be less competitive in other countries while we don't do the same in return. It's just a real bizarre stance for an American to have, and highlights why the election went the way it did.
 

She Mate Me

Well-known member
Dec 7, 2008
10,575
7,410
113
For the love of Pete, fiscal deficits and trade deficits are not the same thing. Is someone in the Trump camp making that claim? I have seen this claim made several times here....

Where exactly do you think the money collected on tariffs goes? Remember, we've learned recently that our Federal government has basically one bank account that matters.

And it's good to be aware that tariffs were a MAJOR source of our government's income for about 140 years or so. The deficits and debt would have been really bad without them.

If your going to respond to someone in a way that makes it appear you don't respect their opinion, it helps to be right (and to show you can figure out how to actually assign yourself a name on the board that's not Anon followed by the national debt........ actually, that number needs quite a few zeros to approach our national debt.)
 

birdawg

Member
Aug 13, 2009
965
120
43
They don't make US products less competitive. They just ARE, because we are selling iphones that they can't afford. However we are buying drifit T shirts for pennies.

See the difference yet you stupid mother 17er
Then why do they impose a tariff if US products are naturally not competitive?

If the price were less (no tariff), the US would sell more of that product to that country. And for some reason, Trump haters do NOT want that to happen.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Anon1724253501

dorndawg

Well-known member
Sep 10, 2012
7,860
6,974
113
I thought you'd never ask.

EO 13993 - "Revision of Civil Immigration Enforcement Policies and Priorities"
EO 14010 - "Creating a Comprehensive Regional Framework To Address the Causes of Migration, To Manage Migration Throughout North and Central America, and To Provide Safe and Orderly Processing of Asylum Seekers at the United States Border"
EO 14011 - "Establishment of Interagency Task Force on the Reunification of Families"
EO 14012 - "Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems and Strengthening Integration and Inclusion Efforts for New Americans"
EO 14013 - "Rebuilding and Enhancing Programs To Resettle Refugees and Planning for the Impact of Climate Change on Migration"


Then he made it even worse with:
EO 14006 - "Reforming Our Incarceration System To Eliminate the Use of Privately Operated Criminal Detention Facilities"
EO 14019 - "Promoting Access to Voting"


***The above doesn't include Biden's order to revoke Trump's "Remain in Mexico" order, which he then double-reverse-revoked on himself and put back in place in 2022 (LOL)
we both know these didn't do what you say, don't we?
 
  • Like
Reactions: vandaldawg

Drebin

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
17,872
16,100
113
Then don't take my word for it. Here's what the father of economics and of capitalism, Adam Smith, has to say:

It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy. The tailor does not attempt to make his own shoes, but buys them of the shoemaker. The shoemaker does not attempt to make his own clothes, but employs a tailor. The farmer attempts to make neither the one nor the other, but employs those different artificers. All of them find it their interest to employ their whole industry in a way in which they have some advantage over their neighbors, and to purchase with a part of its produce, or what is the same thing, with the price of a part of it, whatever else they have occasion for. What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.

Or, believe the more than 1000 economists who tried to warn Hoover not to sign Smoot-Hawley plus a few who are trying to give the same warning to Trump: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-lette...tariffs-policy-protectionism-economy-9a063b69
I'll just not take anyone's word for it and only evaluate what has taken place over the last 8 years with tariffs on China. If everything goes to hell in a handbasket over the next six months, I'll concede your point.
 

Drebin

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
17,872
16,100
113
I'm gonna laugh my *** off when Trump somehow leverages all this into expanded free trade agreements and the Dems applaud him for it and maga either wants to murder him or decide they were pro globalization all along.
Dems will never applaud Trump for anything. They've already come out on the side of fraud, waste, and abuse in government, illegal aliens, trans men muscling women out of sports, and a wide open border. So much of this stuff was democrat sponsored policy until Trump broke everyone.
 

mcdawg22

Well-known member
Sep 18, 2004
11,866
7,221
113
And it's good to be aware that tariffs were a MAJOR source of our government's income for about 140 years or so. The deficits and debt would have been really bad without them.
In fairness, we did have reeeeealllly cheap labor on a lot of the items we produced and sold domestically and we didn’t tax their income because, well, they didn’t have income.
 
  • Like
Reactions: vandaldawg

birdawg

Member
Aug 13, 2009
965
120
43
See the difference yet you stupid mother 17er
Yes, I see the difference. You think other countries should sell their products at market value in the US, while US products are purposefully made less competitive through tariffs, which benefits the foreign country rather than the US.

It's literally why the election went the way it did lol. It's not a grievance/emotion based economy anymore.

You're probably also upset with the idea of government efficiency. TDS in full swing, ma'am.
 

IBleedMaroonDawg

Well-known member
Nov 12, 2007
24,393
8,578
113
 
  • Like
Reactions: DerHntr

Drebin

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
17,872
16,100
113
I haven't seen anybody but Trump's yes men saying this.



So you're suggesting that people like Smith, Hayek, Mises, Friedman, Rothbard, Hazlitt, and all the rest of the economists who have ever said tariffs don't work didn't know what they were taking about, but President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Camacho does?

Edit to clean up the quote tags
I'm old enough to remember 51 "intelligence officials" signing on to the letter stating that Hunter's laptop was Russian disinformation. I'm old enough to remember over a 1000 "economists" who signed a NYT op ed stating that Trump would tank the economy first term.

Economists are biased, too. There's plenty of others who disagree.
 

birdawg

Member
Aug 13, 2009
965
120
43
US made goods that require a lot of labor aren't completive internationally, or at home, because our labor costs are too high. What y'all seem to be yearning for is a return to sweat shop labor in the US. Our unemployment rate is at what is considered full employment now. WE do not have the labor in sheer numbers, much less inclination, to return to that. It's not going to happen. You may see some heavy industry return, IF these tariffs persist across a couple or more administration changes. It will be heavily automated though. It will bring a FEW high paying jobs with it, but It's not going to bring back thousands of unskilled/semi-skilled jobs to Toledo, or even Mississippi. Those days are gone for good. Granny ain't going back to the pants factory.
Then why do those same countries add a tariff to US products?
 

birdawg

Member
Aug 13, 2009
965
120
43
So tell me, why do we have a deficit with Vietnam? We paid them for their stuff, and they paid for us for ours. All equal, right?

Is that number fabricated? I'm so confused.
Why does Vietnam add a tariff if US goods are cost prohibitive naturally? When you understand the answer to that, you will come a looong way from unconfusing yourself.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.