Opponent -- comp/att (%), yds, TD/INT
@Wvu -- 11/17 (65%), 216, 3/0
vsBG -- 13/20 (65%), 204, 2/1
vsKeSt -- 17/21 (81%), 309, 3/0
vsILL -- 15/21 (71%), 135, 0/0
vsUCLA -- 17/24 (71%), 237, 1/0
@USC -- 30/43 (70%), 391, 2/3
@Wisc -- 14/18 (78%), 148, 1/0
vsOSU -- 12/20 (60%), 146, 0/1
vsWU -- 20/28 (71%), 220, 1/0
@Pur -- 17/19 (89%), 247, 3/0
@Minn -- 21/28 (75%), 244, 1/0
vsMD -- 17/26 (65%), 171, 1/0
--
vsORE -- 20/39 (51%), 226, 3/2
vsSMU -- 13/22 (59%), 127, 0/0
vsBoSt -- 13/25 (52%), 171, 3/0
vsND -- 12/23 (52%), 135, 0/1
When we analyze these numbers, several things probably jump out: Drew's two best games were against Penn State's (by far!) two weakest opponents.
His worst regular season performance was against Penn State's toughest, and many would say "only decent" opponent of the regular season.
To some extent, this is not surprising. We expect players to perform better against weaker opposition, and to have a more difficult time against stronger opponents. That's simple logic.
Where I think we start to see an alarming trend is after the regular season -- and yes, I'm including the B1G CG because that's a game only two teams get to play, so it's not really part of the regular season schedule.
Against the opponents in the post-season, Drew never breaks 60% passing efficiency, and his "best" numbers come against PSU's weakest (by far) post-season opponent.
Yet against even, or maybe slightly better opposition, Drew is basically drowning out there, completing barely half his attempts.
Also, of the 8 picks Drew threw this season, HALF of them came in the playoffs + the OSU game.
Again, SOME of this we can write off because of tougher competition. But to see a starting QB at a blue blood program, a 5-star recruit shrivel like this in the face of "big game" pressure again, and again, and again to the point where it's flat out predictable, does suggest a deeper issue.
My question to the Nittany Lion faithful is: did any of us really believe Drew was going to have a good game against Ohio State? Against Oregon? Against Notre Dame? And if so... WHY did you think that? Upon what evidence were you drawing to hold such a belief?
We can also say, "Well, Drew doesn't have any good WRs," but I think we all know that's a cop out that doesn't hold as much water as we'd like.
Most of us know full well if we go back and look at the tape, there are going to be guys open. The alternative is to believe that Penn State has the worst wide receivers in college football (because every other team has receivers that can and do get open).
I want to know: if this trend continues next season, at what point is it reasonable to write off Drew Allar as a bust?
There are some who probably want to say, "right now. He's already a bust."
But he's going to be out starter in 2025, so I prefer to hold out hope (for now) that something will click, and he'll be awesome next year. Maybe we'll have a good WR, even! Although, we won't have Tyler Warren, so maybe it doesn't matter.
Also, what do we think Drew's problem is? I know his mechanics are terrible. I've said so all season. But WHY are his mechanics terrible 16 games into a season where he played 95% of all meaningful snaps, and in his second year as the starter? Why can't he step into his throws properly? Why does he panic in the face of blitz pressure? Why is his decision making so awful (he constantly forces throws into tight coverage where it's not necessary to do so simply because 'that's the play that was called').
Is it because this is his talent ceiling, and he's simply not good? Or is it because the coaches don't know how to cultivate his talent the way we've consistently seen programs like USC, and Alabama, and Michigan, and Ohio State, and Georgia do?
Thoughts?
@Wvu -- 11/17 (65%), 216, 3/0
vsBG -- 13/20 (65%), 204, 2/1
vsKeSt -- 17/21 (81%), 309, 3/0
vsILL -- 15/21 (71%), 135, 0/0
vsUCLA -- 17/24 (71%), 237, 1/0
@USC -- 30/43 (70%), 391, 2/3
@Wisc -- 14/18 (78%), 148, 1/0
vsOSU -- 12/20 (60%), 146, 0/1
vsWU -- 20/28 (71%), 220, 1/0
@Pur -- 17/19 (89%), 247, 3/0
@Minn -- 21/28 (75%), 244, 1/0
vsMD -- 17/26 (65%), 171, 1/0
--
vsORE -- 20/39 (51%), 226, 3/2
vsSMU -- 13/22 (59%), 127, 0/0
vsBoSt -- 13/25 (52%), 171, 3/0
vsND -- 12/23 (52%), 135, 0/1
When we analyze these numbers, several things probably jump out: Drew's two best games were against Penn State's (by far!) two weakest opponents.
His worst regular season performance was against Penn State's toughest, and many would say "only decent" opponent of the regular season.
To some extent, this is not surprising. We expect players to perform better against weaker opposition, and to have a more difficult time against stronger opponents. That's simple logic.
Where I think we start to see an alarming trend is after the regular season -- and yes, I'm including the B1G CG because that's a game only two teams get to play, so it's not really part of the regular season schedule.
Against the opponents in the post-season, Drew never breaks 60% passing efficiency, and his "best" numbers come against PSU's weakest (by far) post-season opponent.
Yet against even, or maybe slightly better opposition, Drew is basically drowning out there, completing barely half his attempts.
Also, of the 8 picks Drew threw this season, HALF of them came in the playoffs + the OSU game.
Again, SOME of this we can write off because of tougher competition. But to see a starting QB at a blue blood program, a 5-star recruit shrivel like this in the face of "big game" pressure again, and again, and again to the point where it's flat out predictable, does suggest a deeper issue.
My question to the Nittany Lion faithful is: did any of us really believe Drew was going to have a good game against Ohio State? Against Oregon? Against Notre Dame? And if so... WHY did you think that? Upon what evidence were you drawing to hold such a belief?
We can also say, "Well, Drew doesn't have any good WRs," but I think we all know that's a cop out that doesn't hold as much water as we'd like.
Most of us know full well if we go back and look at the tape, there are going to be guys open. The alternative is to believe that Penn State has the worst wide receivers in college football (because every other team has receivers that can and do get open).
I want to know: if this trend continues next season, at what point is it reasonable to write off Drew Allar as a bust?
There are some who probably want to say, "right now. He's already a bust."
But he's going to be out starter in 2025, so I prefer to hold out hope (for now) that something will click, and he'll be awesome next year. Maybe we'll have a good WR, even! Although, we won't have Tyler Warren, so maybe it doesn't matter.
Also, what do we think Drew's problem is? I know his mechanics are terrible. I've said so all season. But WHY are his mechanics terrible 16 games into a season where he played 95% of all meaningful snaps, and in his second year as the starter? Why can't he step into his throws properly? Why does he panic in the face of blitz pressure? Why is his decision making so awful (he constantly forces throws into tight coverage where it's not necessary to do so simply because 'that's the play that was called').
Is it because this is his talent ceiling, and he's simply not good? Or is it because the coaches don't know how to cultivate his talent the way we've consistently seen programs like USC, and Alabama, and Michigan, and Ohio State, and Georgia do?
Thoughts?