I did not see an Official Chiefs v Falcons thread, so I'll say here, just think if Atlanta had kicked their FG's down the stretch.
E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!! Eagles - Saints game thread
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If they can tap into whatever motivation he had this week, then the sky’s the limit. He is so, so special.
but they didnt, Atlanta's FG kicker is automatic take the points , especially that late.
So, if you flipped a coin once and it came up heads, would you conclude that you should always take heads?
When Atl missed the first 4th down conversion with about 4 min left, KC had the ball up by 5 on their own 6.
If Atl kicked the FG, KC would have the ball around the 30 yard line up by 2. This significantly changes the way that KC calls plays. Good chance that Atl never sees the ball again.
And no kicker is "automatic". There is always a chance of a miss (or botched snap, etc).
you are making assumptions not in evidence here. KC would still be protecting a 2 pt lead, they probably would not have changed their calls. You dont know that they get the ball at the 30, Atl could have dropped one in their stumbled over themselves and still have the ball at 6. Even if KC gets a first down, ATL stops them they would only need to go 30-40 yds, and with their kicker they win.
BTW coin flips are independent events.
You made a much worse assumption that if Atl kicked the FG on the first 4th down attempt then the game would have played out exactly the same and Atl would have had another FG chance. Sorry, but KC would not have called the game the same way on the 30yd line with a 2 point lead - no way. By giving KC the ball on their own 6, Atl increased their chances of getting the ball back significantly.
The point of the coin flip comment is that you can't draw conclusions based on a small sample size, which is exactly what you are trying to do by bringing up the Atl-KC game. You would have to see how these scenarios play out over hundreds (if not more) events. That is basic statistics.