Expansion/Realignment Talk Heating Up Again
- Thread starter KingWard
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A big part of the argument is coming from FSU. Central Florida just joined the BIG 12 which means they could be raking in more $$$ than FSU. If that is case, you will see FSU pull out all stops to get out of the ACC and FAST...
Imagine, Central Florida trumping, what at one point was the top dawg in Florida.
Imagine, Central Florida trumping, what at one point was the top dawg in Florida.
Yeah, I posted that a while back. I can see the B12 getting with 8 ACC schools that want out and merging. From what I’ve read and heard, the SEC isn’t interested in FSU and Clem. Things can change on a dime, but when the Sec added OU/UT the SEC had concerns about streaming success with Clem/FSU.
If 8 members get together they can essentially blow up the ACC and the GOR is null and void. There are 7 that have publicly said they want out. They need to find 1.
Post #36 - With reportedly Louisville jumping onboard, that would make eight.
Ok..so what happens to the DUKE/UNC Basketball Rivalry? UNC has to hope the B10 takes them and Duke! It seems I've read in several places that the state legislature of North Carolina won't let UNC and NCSU be in different conferences. (same with Tech and UVA)..
The SEC only needs two more to control the entire south. For that to be the case, it has to be UNC/UVA that the SEC targets. You have to know, judging from the UNC sites, their fans and alumni want to be in the SEC badly. I don't think they could stomach an away game with say Minnesota or Wisconsin in November. Heck would fans even show up to UNC (football) home games vs Indiana, Purdue, or Northwestern. That would be boring as hell....
The exit fee isn't the big deal, it's loss of TV revenue.
But, again, I have to think if it's as simple a solution as getting 8 schools together to jump ship, that would have been done some time ago.
Well, it was not that simple. 8 schools may have elements in common, but that does not necessarily mean they would be willing to form a unified alliance. Now with the new TV deals going to the BIG12, B1g 10 & SEC, there is much more urgency on behalf of those 7(8) schools.
One school in particular would prefer to leave the ACC altogether,
The best college football in the country (SEC) will draw the biggest TV audience and advertising dollars. Why dilute such a product by adding more and more teams? The Big 10 will not get better football just by becoming larger and larger. Most football fans will not tune in for bad football and will flip channels to the better games.
Sounds like the ACC is going to stay together for now. They're working out a new revenue sharing model....which will be the death knell for the conference. In a conference environment, this kind of setup ensures 100% disparity. Sounds like the plan they're working on will add $10-20M to the top football programs. They'll still be at a disadvantage, just not as much. I read an interesting article that stated the reason for the rigid GOR deal was they had to do it that way to make ESPN happy. ESPN didn't see the value in the ACC without locking in member institutions for 20 years. It think it's interesting nobody has a copy of the agreement. The only way to see the actual agreement is for a member school to go to Greensboro and view it at the ACC offices. So who knows if the 8 team clause is legit to begin with?? I think if it was legit, it would be dead by now. FSU's AD is "thrilled" to be in the ACC now. I think it's telling that they were leading the charge to leave, but are now thrilled to still be trapped until 2036 in a situation where they're still going to be at a massive disadvantage.
Your point is a good one, and why I continue to say that the SEC wouldn't be interested in Clem/FSU. I don't think that does much in terms of TV revenue. But adding new territories does. So adding VT and NCST wouldn't dilute anything, it would add to the footprint. It's a moot point though, as the ACC ain't going anywhere.
This Tar Heel guy definitely jonesing for the Big 10. https://keepingitheel.com/2023/05/16/north-carolina-tar-heels-best-fit-unc-leaves-acc/amp/
This guy gives a different take on it. Outside of Clemson and FSU, what do any of the other teams offer a football conference? He's not wrong.
Of course, he writes for the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, so the article is likely slanted from a Pitt fan's perspective.
www.post-gazette.com
Of course, he writes for the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, so the article is likely slanted from a Pitt fan's perspective.
Paul Zeise: Some ACC schools have lost their minds
Florida State hasn’t been relevant in football since Jameis Winston was on campus. Virginia Tech hasn’t been relevant since Frank Beamer was...
www.post-gazette.com
I took his point to mean the opposite. If fans are tuning in for good games, adding VT and NCState don't turn the needle. Fsu and cu do.
He said the b10 won't be better, just bigger with expansion, and I think that's true if the sec adds vt and ncstate. Jmo
As far as the ACC breaking up, which per the post below, seems like it's not happening anymore, the NCAA only requires 7 schools to have a conference, so even with 8 banding together and leaving, the ACC would still have 7 schools and qualify as a conference, so the GOR would still stick, right?
That GOR must be absolutely unbreakable if UNC's lawyers can't find a way around it, Interesting line: "Nearly every program in the ACC has studied the league's grant of rights over the last two years, sources tell 247Sports." These schools have torn that GOR apart letter by letter, put it back together and torn it apart again and can't find a way around it.
Highly jaundiced perspective, I think.This guy gives a different take on it. Outside of Clemson and FSU, what do any of the other teams offer a football conference? He's not wrong.
Of course, he writes for the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, so the article is likely slanted from a Pitt fan's perspective.
Paul Zeise: Some ACC schools have lost their minds
Florida State hasn’t been relevant in football since Jameis Winston was on campus. Virginia Tech hasn’t been relevant since Frank Beamer was...
For now is a relative term.
There are talking points to say in front of the camera, and then there are talking points in the boardroom. TIFWIW.
It's not about being better...it's about making more money. Those two aren't mutually exclusive. The B10 makes more than the SEC in TV revenue now, but the SEC is a "better" conference. You don't get bigger TV contracts by adding in areas you already have a presence. The SEC didn't add Mizzu b/c of their stellar football program. A&M has been a perpetually average program.
Exactly. That's why I think the 8 team deal is a farce. If there is still an ACC, there is still a GOR. I'll believe that until it's not the case. They all signed up for this. Now, they're having to deal with it.
Can you imagine signing a contract that binds you for 20 years with no reasonable out?? What a bunch of morons!! Hey, they should run for Congress!! lol
Well, to be kind of fair, I don't think anyone predicted revenue blowing up like it has for the SEC and Big 10. In 2013, the SEC payout was $20 million/school ($289 million divvied up among the 14 schools. For the 2022 season, that jumped to a staggering $50 million/school.
In 2014, the ACC payout was $20.8 million/school, so about the same as the SEC.
Since 2013 or so the SEC and Big 10 have just blown away the field in total revenue, and that's an understatement.
In 2014, the Pac 12 led the way in total revenue with $334 million, followed by the Big 10 at $328 million, SEC at $314 million and ACC with $291 million. There was only a $40 million spread from 1st to 4th, so pretty tightly clustered.
Here's how the most recent numbers look:
1. Big Ten: $768.9 million
2. SEC: $728.9 million
3. Pac-12: $533.8 million
4. ACC: $496.7 million
5. Big 12: $409.2 million
Big 10 and SEC are still neck-and-neck. But look at that spread. From 1st to 3rd is now a difference of a whopping $235 million.
Basically, a decade ago, everyone was more or less playing on something of an even field. The GOR at that time probably seemed a safe bet. The ACC knew they had some ground to make up, but they were only $20 million behind the SEC, so it wasn't a staggering deficit.
Here's my guess. All ACC members have studied the GOR inside and out to figure out a way out of it b/c it sucks. They failed. ACC officials got them all together at the meeting and told them "you're stuck, so we better just figure out a way forward". FSU has critical in front of a camera up until this point. Clem has made public comments as well. I don't doubt it's just playing nice in front a camera. No doubt they're not happy, even with uneven revenue sharing. But there's nothing they can do about it.
I don't disagree strongly. Just thought the previous post was saying something different.
I'm also wondering how much physical footprint weighs against better football. It's been rehashed a bunch, but sometimes, more eyes are attracted by the games, rather than region. (Which is what I took Prestonyte's point to be)
I get it. But even at that point, revenue and TV deals had started growing exponentially. In 2008 the SEC distribution was $11M/school. So it nearly doubled in 6 years. It's a total lack of foresight by the league and the U presidents. And it also guaranteed they're not going to be able to add any quality programs b/c NOBODY is signing up for this. The Miami, VT, BC, Cuse expansion was a disaster. They had to sell their future to get a deal. FSU/Clem could have left in 2012 and avoided this. Now they're stuck.
I get it. But even at that point, revenue and TV deals had started growing exponentially. In 2008 the SEC distribution was $11M/school. So it nearly doubled in 6 years. It's a total lack of foresight by the league and the U presidents. And it also guaranteed they're not going to be able to add any quality programs b/c NOBODY is signing up for this. The Miami, VT, BC, Cuse expansion was a disaster. They had to sell their future to get a deal. FSU/Clem could have left in 2012 and avoided this. Now they're stuck.
Yes, revenue was already going up rapidly, but the conferences were all still relatively close in overall total revenue. Nobody could have foreseen what has happened with SEC and Big 10 revenue since that time.
We might be close to the limit of what the golden goose can bear. You have conferences talking about approaching ESPN for more money in the event they take on additional teams, but ESPN is laying people off. They aren't the only ones. Something to think about.I get it. But even at that point, revenue and TV deals had started growing exponentially. In 2008 the SEC distribution was $11M/school. So it nearly doubled in 6 years. It's a total lack of foresight by the league and the U presidents. And it also guaranteed they're not going to be able to add any quality programs b/c NOBODY is signing up for this. The Miami, VT, BC, Cuse expansion was a disaster. They had to sell their future to get a deal. FSU/Clem could have left in 2012 and avoided this. Now they're stuck.
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You don't sign a 20 year deal when everyone else is doing 10-15 year deals and doubling their revenue each contract. Their GOR deal was signed in 2016...just 2 years after SECN launch, and just 7 years prior to the then SEC TV rights expiring. So they had to know that in 7 years, the SEC is going to get an enormous increase being the king of CFB. But they locked themselves in for 20 years anyway. From a league standpoint, I don't think they had a choice. But the members should have known better.
It was originally signed in 2013 and revised in 2016. The 2016 revision was to create the ACCN. Again, seemed like a reasonable move at the time, given the SECN success.
SEC and Big 10 have just blown away the field.
I agree. But I also think there is plenty of fat to cut at ESPN looking at how much obscure content they produce. I can watch NCAA rowing right now. How about Jai Alai or polo? Volleyball? Track and field? My guess is steaming is a drag b/c they provide so much stuff that nobody watches.
I could be wrong, but when they revised it I believe they had the opportunity to get out. Regardless, my point remains. Even if they were stuck since 2013, the SEC was going to be renewing in 2023. The presidents should have known better.
You're speaking with hindsight. I doubt the average fan even heard of the GOR until recent events.
Not talking about the average fan. I'm talking about the Presidents of major universities setting their programs up for failure.