FC: Blue-Chip Ratio 2023 - Is Franklin recruiting as well as we think?

[Midnighter]

Found this to be a bit eye-opening; the whole article is worth reading but below is a graphic of the top rated blue-chip ratio (BCR) teams for 2023 (recruits signed over a four year cycle). The BCR is a measure of the amount of blue-chip talent on a roster (the article discusses JUCO, transfers, etc.). I thought PSU (and Michigan) would be higher. Think going forward you'll see the talent spread out a bit more. Anyway, read the whole thing if you can. Here is an excerpt noting BCR's for previous teams who won the National Championship:

• In 2022, Georgia took home the title in dominant fashion with a 77% ratio.
• In 2021, Georgia had an 80 percent BCR and won it all, beating the No. 1 BCR team Alabama in the title game. Three of the four playoff teams were BCR teams as Cincinnati was the first crasher since 2017.
• In 2020, Alabama had an 83 percent BCR and won it all. All four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
• In 2019, LSU won it with a 64 percent BCR, and all four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
• Clemson, with a 61 percent mark, took it home in 2018. And all four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
• Alabama won it all in 2017 with an incredible 80 percent mark.
• Clemson took home the title in 2016 after signing 52 percent blue chips in the 2013-16 classes.
• In 2015, Alabama had a 77 percent mark.
• In 2014, it was Ohio State at 68 percent.
• In 2013, Florida State was at 53 percent.
• In 2012, Alabama was at 71 percent
• ... just as Bama was in 2011.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2023: The 16 teams who can actually win a national title

How much talent does it take to win the national championship in college football? And which of the teams in 2023 are most set to deliver on that promise? Unveiling the 2023 Blue-Chip Ratio.

247sports.com

 

[BobPSU92]

Franklin laughs at ratios.

 

[WestSideLion]

Interesting. I think many would expect PSU’s recruiting to be consistently top 10-15, but be a considerable cut below the elite schools like Bama, Georgia and Ohio St. That graphic shows that.

Two trends not addressed are successful use of the Portal to fill holes and position-specific recruiting. The portal seems to be how Michigan had emerged as an elite team. They also hit the jackpot with McCarthy at QB. Having a top QB and running game covers up a lot of other issues.

 

[MacNit2.0]

Interesting. I think many would expect PSU’s recruiting to be consistently top 10-15, but be a considerable cut below the elite schools like Bama, Georgia and Ohio St. That graphic shows that.

Two trends not addressed are successful use of the Portal to fill holes and position-specific recruiting. The portal seems to be how Michigan had emerged as an elite team. They also hit the jackpot with McCarthy at QB. Having a top QB and running game covers up a lot of other issues.

Excellent point…and a primary reason we struggle against O$U…they have better players.

 

[LB99]

Excellent point…and a primary reason we struggle against O$U…they have better players.

On the flip side, there a few schools on that list that PSU usually ends the season with more wins than them despite them recruiting higher ranked players. Does that mean their coaches underachieve? Or is Franklin and Co doing more with less?

 

[Grant Green]

Found this to be a bit eye-opening; the whole article is worth reading but below is a graphic of the top rated blue-chip ratio (BCR) teams for 2023 (recruits signed over a four year cycle). The BCR is a measure of the amount of blue-chip talent on a roster (the article discusses JUCO, transfers, etc.). I thought PSU (and Michigan) would be higher. Think going forward you'll see the talent spread out a bit more. Anyway, read the whole thing if you can. Here is an excerpt noting BCR's for previous teams who won the National Championship:

• In 2022, Georgia took home the title in dominant fashion with a 77% ratio.
• In 2021, Georgia had an 80 percent BCR and won it all, beating the No. 1 BCR team Alabama in the title game. Three of the four playoff teams were BCR teams as Cincinnati was the first crasher since 2017.
• In 2020, Alabama had an 83 percent BCR and won it all. All four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
• In 2019, LSU won it with a 64 percent BCR, and all four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
• Clemson, with a 61 percent mark, took it home in 2018. And all four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
• Alabama won it all in 2017 with an incredible 80 percent mark.
• Clemson took home the title in 2016 after signing 52 percent blue chips in the 2013-16 classes.
• In 2015, Alabama had a 77 percent mark.
• In 2014, it was Ohio State at 68 percent.
• In 2013, Florida State was at 53 percent.
• In 2012, Alabama was at 71 percent
• ... just as Bama was in 2011.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2023: The 16 teams who can actually win a national title

How much talent does it take to win the national championship in college football? And which of the teams in 2023 are most set to deliver on that promise? Unveiling the 2023 Blue-Chip Ratio.

247sports.com

I said it before and will say it again. Franklin is great at recruiting 4 star players, but he needs to get 1 to 3 5-star players per class to compete. Switch Harrison Jr from OSU to PSU and I think that game plays out differently.

 

[LB99]

I said it before and will say it again. Franklin is great at recruiting 4 star players, but he needs to get 1 to 3 5-star players per class to compete. Switch Harrison Jr from OSU to PSU and I think that game plays out differently.

You are right, getting more 5 star players would definitely help and OSU is ahead of him at that. However, it isn’t like he doesn’t get 5 star players. Allar, Singleton, DDS, Jven Williams, Chop were all 5 star players. The TE in next year’s class was just rated a 5 star and the RB/S/DB from western PA in next year’s class may end up a 5 star also. You can criticize Franklin for several thing, but he is dialed in to the recruiting scene and finds talented kids before they blow up nationally. Justin Fields was only a 3 star when he committed to PSU. Franklin identified his talent early. By his Sr year, Fields was a 5 star.

Penn State 2022 Football Commits

Penn State

247sports.com

 

[Grant Green]

You are right, getting more 5 star players would definitely help and OSU is ahead of him at that. However, it isn’t like he doesn’t get 5 star players. Allar, Singleton, DDS, Jven Williams, Chop were all 5 star players. The TE in next year’s class was just rated a 5 star and the RB/S/DB from western PA in next year’s class may end up a 5 star also. You can criticize Franklin for several thing, but he is dialed in to the recruiting scene and finds talented kids before they blow up nationally. Justin Fields was only a 3 star when he committed to PSU. Franklin identified his talent early. By his Sr year, Fields was a 5 star.

Penn State 2022 Football Commits

Penn State

247sports.com

Using the ON3 commit list as my guide, number of 5 star recruits for PSU for 2020-2023 are as follows: 0/0/3/0.
I may also need to revise my 1 to 3 per year standard as it looks like ON3 has more 5 star players than Rivals did.

Regarding Justin Fields, he did not go to Penn State.

 

[LB99]

Using the ON3 commit list as my guide, number of 5 star recruits for PSU for 2020-2023 are as follows: 0/0/3/0.
I may also need to revise my 1 to 3 per year standard as it looks like ON3 has more 5 star players than Rivals did.

Regarding Justin Fields, he did not go to Penn State.

I use 24/7. I think they do a nice job including a function they have as a composite rating which is an average of all other recruiting services rankings plus theirs. So, the rankings may fluctuate a bit in the composite.
No kidding. But Franklin identified him as a talented player before many other programs did.

 

[TheTwistedFrog]

How well do you think he was recruiting? He rarely lands 5 stars and 5 stars tend to make a huge difference.

 

[Midnighter]

On the flip side, there a few schools on that list that PSU usually ends the season with more wins than them despite them recruiting higher ranked players. Does that mean their coaches underachieve? Or is Franklin and Co doing more with less?

The article addresses things like coaching, schedule, portal, transfers, etc. It's mostly an indicator of teams capable of winning a National Title; not necessarily a guideline for W/L record.

 

[Grant Green]

I use 24/7. I think they do a nice job including a function they have as a composite rating which is an average of all other recruiting services rankings plus theirs. So, the rankings may fluctuate a bit in the composite.
No kidding. But Franklin identified him as a talented player before many other programs did.

Ok, using 24/7, the number of 5 star players from 2020-23 goes 0/0/3/0. OSU got 13 in the same timeframe.

Great. Franklin identified him. OSU got him and he beat us twice.

 

[Midnighter]

I said it before and will say it again. Franklin is great at recruiting 4 star players, but he needs to get 1 to 3 5-star players per class to compete. Switch Harrison Jr from OSU to PSU and I think that game plays out differently.

Looking at the On3 roster (with star rankings), Penn State has 13 WR's with either a 3 or 4 start rating (8-4 Stars, 5-3 Stars). My guess is we win if we could have landed Fleming; he's a pine rider at OSU but would be a star at PSU.

 

[Midnighter]

How well do you think he was recruiting? He rarely lands 5 stars and 5 stars tend to make a huge difference.

Something like 80% of his classes are 4 Stars. So, I would guess a BCR of somewhere north of 65%.

 

[bdgan]

Excellent point…and a primary reason we struggle against O$U…they have better players.

They've always had better players but once every 3 years or so they would lose key starters to the NFL while PSU was returning a more senior laden team.

Fans weren't happy when Joe only won 36% of those games but now we would love to get back to that.

 

[LB99]

Ok, using 24/7, the number of 5 star players from 2020-23 goes 0/0/3/0. OSU got 13 in the same timeframe.

Great. Franklin identified him. OSU got him and he beat us twice.

2020 1 Curtis Jacobs
2021 0 but 1 through transfer portal- Chop
2022 3 Allar, Singleton, DDS
2023 1 Jven Williams

Penn State 2020 Football Commits

Penn State

247sports.com

Penn State 2022 Football Commits

Penn State

247sports.com

Penn State 2023 Football Commits

Penn State

247sports.com

 

[LB99]

Yes, Ohio State recruits at a higher blue chip rate, but Franklin is recruiting at a higher level than we have seen at PSU since the early to mid 90’s. You have to give the guy credit. He appears to recruit tirelessly and is doing a pretty good job identifying talent as is eveidenced by the last few NFL drafts. Now, they have to develop those kids and put them in the best position to win at PSU.

 

[Grant Green]

Yes, Ohio State recruits at a higher blue chip rate, but Franklin is recruiting at a higher level than we have seen at PSU since the early to mid 90’s.

That's super, but don't we want to be on par with OSU for blue chips if we are going to beat them?

For the record, I think JF is a good coach. I just think he needs to get over this final recruiting hurdle to be "elite"

 

[ApexLion]

Franklin laughs at ratios.

May I hate our ratios?

 

[Midnighter]

That's super, but don't we want to be on par with OSU for blue chips if we are going to beat them?

For the record, I think JF is a good coach. I just think he needs to get over this final recruiting hurdle to be "elite"

To that end, what is the draw to Columbus? More urban? More NIL? Better coaches/NFL pipeline? Uniforms? Less 'school'? More tradition? Big thing with OSU is they keep nearly everyone they want from Ohio, which is a top HS football state. We do pretty well with PA top ten, but have a few big misses on record (Rucci, Fleming, McCord, Harrison, etc.).

 

[ApexLion]

Found this to be a bit eye-opening; the whole article is worth reading but below is a graphic of the top rated blue-chip ratio (BCR) teams for 2023 (recruits signed over a four year cycle). The BCR is a measure of the amount of blue-chip talent on a roster (the article discusses JUCO, transfers, etc.). I thought PSU (and Michigan) would be higher. Think going forward you'll see the talent spread out a bit more. Anyway, read the whole thing if you can. Here is an excerpt noting BCR's for previous teams who won the National Championship:

• In 2022, Georgia took home the title in dominant fashion with a 77% ratio.
• In 2021, Georgia had an 80 percent BCR and won it all, beating the No. 1 BCR team Alabama in the title game. Three of the four playoff teams were BCR teams as Cincinnati was the first crasher since 2017.
• In 2020, Alabama had an 83 percent BCR and won it all. All four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
• In 2019, LSU won it with a 64 percent BCR, and all four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
• Clemson, with a 61 percent mark, took it home in 2018. And all four Playoff teams were BCR schools.
• Alabama won it all in 2017 with an incredible 80 percent mark.
• Clemson took home the title in 2016 after signing 52 percent blue chips in the 2013-16 classes.
• In 2015, Alabama had a 77 percent mark.
• In 2014, it was Ohio State at 68 percent.
• In 2013, Florida State was at 53 percent.
• In 2012, Alabama was at 71 percent
• ... just as Bama was in 2011.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2023: The 16 teams who can actually win a national title

How much talent does it take to win the national championship in college football? And which of the teams in 2023 are most set to deliver on that promise? Unveiling the 2023 Blue-Chip Ratio.

247sports.com

Clearly Texas should just give it up and play lacrosse only.

 

[LB99]

That's super, but don't we want to be on par with OSU for blue chips if we are going to beat them?

For the record, I think JF is a good coach. I just think he needs to get over this final recruiting hurdle to be "elite"

Seems like he will never get any credit for anything from a subset of the fan base. That’s fine, but someone said he never to rarely gets 5 star players. I simply provided them with some data. If they choose to ignore that or move the goalposts, that’s on them. And, for the record, most successful schools rosters are filled with 4 star players. That are the bread and butter for most programs. PSU is no different in that regard.

 

[Grant Green]

To that end, what is the draw to Columbus? More urban? More NIL? Better coaches/NFL pipeline? Uniforms? Less 'school'? More tradition? Big thing with OSU is they keep nearly everyone they want from Ohio, which is a top HS football state. We do pretty well with PA top ten, but have a few big misses on record (Rucci, Fleming, McCord, Harrison, etc.).

Momentum. Same reason that PSU was getting them in the 70s and 80s.

 

[LB99]

To that end, what is the draw to Columbus? More urban? More NIL? Better coaches/NFL pipeline? Uniforms? Less 'school'? More tradition? Big thing with OSU is they keep nearly everyone they want from Ohio, which is a top HS football state. We do pretty well with PA top ten, but have a few big misses on record (Rucci, Fleming, McCord, Harrison, etc.).

Stop with this nonsense. Go look at the recruiting classes since Franklin took over at PSU. They are filled with the top PA guys, but he has also expanded the footprint into FL and TX more. Fleming and Rucci aren’t setting the world on fire. McCord is good. Not great. Harrison is a stud.

 

[Grant Green]

Seems like he will never get any credit for anything from a subset of the fan base. That’s fine, but someone said he never to rarely gets 5 star players. I simply provided them with some data. If they choose to ignore that or move the goalposts, that’s on them. And, for the record, most successful schools rosters are filled with 4 star players. That are the bread and butter for most programs. PSU is no different in that regard.

I don't know if you are referring to me, but I've given Franklin plenty of credit in the past and you can go through my post history to see that I never ***** about him or call for his head. And I didn't say that he never to rarely gets 5 star players. The whole argument here is, are we happy to be a top 15 team that has a slim chance to make the playoffs or do we want to be "elite". Yes, most successful teams are filled with 4 star players, but the elite (Georgia, Bama, OSU...) get a number of 5 stars in every class.

 

[LB99]

I don't know if you are referring to me, but I've given Franklin plenty of credit in the past and you can go through my post history to see that I never ***** about him or call for his head. And I didn't say that he never to rarely gets 5 star players. The whole argument here is, are we happy to be a top 15 team that has a slim chance to make the playoffs or do we want to be "elite". Yes, most successful teams are filled with 4 star players, but the elite (Georgia, Bama, OSU...) get a number of 5 stars in every class.

Not referring to you.

The title of the thread is Blue Chip Ratio. Is Franklin recruiting well? That’s the basis for all my comments. Nothing more or less.

 

[Midnighter]

Stop with this nonsense. Go look at the recruiting classes since Franklin took over at PSU. They are filled with the top PA guys, but he has also expanded the footprint into FL and TX more. Fleming and Rucci aren’t setting the world on fire. McCord is good. Not great. Harrison is a stud.

I don't disagree, he gets most of the top PA players. Just seems like all the positions of need go elsewhere (or don't pan out). DT, WR OTTOMH.

 

[BobPSU92]

Stars don’t matter. Just coach ‘em up. Talent development, schemes, strategery.

 

[LB99]

I don't disagree, he gets most of the top PA players. Just seems like all the positions of need go elsewhere (or don't pan out). DT, WR OTTOMH.

Many of the other players Franklin gets are top rated players in their respective states. Go comb through the past several recruiting classes. He’s gotten a lot of top rated kids from NE, NY, MD, VA, etc. He also has reestablished recruiting NJ and OH again which was missing for some time. The three biggest misses in my opinion have been Fields, Christian Wilkins, and Harrison. I also don’t understand the SJP disconnect. It puzzles me, especially with Gabe Infante, the former SJP HC on staff at PSU, unless there is some riff between Infante and the current SJP coach that we are unaware of. Franklin got John Reid early in his tenure but not much since.

 

[Grant Green]

Not referring to you.

The title of the thread is Blue Chip Ratio. Is Franklin recruiting well? That’s the basis for all my comments. Nothing more or less.

Ok, but you replied to the following post. Do you really disagree with it?

I said it before and will say it again. Franklin is great at recruiting 4 star players, but he needs to get 1 to 3 5-star players per class to compete. Switch Harrison Jr from OSU to PSU and I think that game plays out differently.

 

[LB99]

Ok, but you replied to the following post. Do you really disagree with it?

No, just a general response/conversation. Switch Fields to PSU in 2019 and PSU wins that game also.

 

[Grant Green]

Switch Fields to PSU in 2019 and PSU wins that game also.

And that is my point! Franklin is close, but he needs to have more of these type players if he wants to be "elite" and compete with OSU and UM on a regular basis.

 

[LionJim]

And that is my point! Franklin is close, but he needs to have more of these type players if he wants to be "elite" and compete with OSU and UM on a regular basis.

And the uncertainty that NIL brings to the recruiting landscape doesn’t improve our dispositions.

 

[LB99]

I don't disagree, he gets most of the top PA players. Just seems like all the positions of need go elsewhere (or don't pan out). DT, WR OTTOMH.

DT is the area that I think PSU has not been able to grab top tier guys the most. WR has been a mixed bag, but Shorter is the main guy I think of at not panning out. He didn’t do any better at Florida either. He’s another guy that I think the recruiting services rated on size, athleticism, and potential, not actual game success. Hamler, Dotson, and Washington were all great WRs under Franklin.

 

[Midnighter]

DT is the area that I think PSU has not been able to grab top tier guys the most. WR has been a mixed bag, but Shorter is the main guy I think of at not panning out. He didn’t do any better at Florida either. He’s another guy that I think the recruiting services rated on size, athleticism, and potential, not actual game success. Hamler, Dotson, and Washington were all great WRs under Franklin.

Who were the guys who went to Oregon and Oklahoma? Also good.

 

[LB99]

Who were the guys who went to Oregon and Oklahoma? Also good.

Juwan Johnson? He had decent career at Oregon. Not spectacular. He’s a TE with the Saints now. Not sure who you mean went to Ok?

 

[Midnighter]

Juwan Johnson? He had decent career at Oregon. Not spectacular. He’s a TE with the Saints now. Not sure who you mean went to Ok?

Justin Brown - before Franklin….

 

[LB99]

Justin Brown - before Franklin….

Good memory. Didn’t he leave when the sanctions kicked in and kids could transfer with no penalty?

 

[ApexLion]

Good memory. Didn’t he leave when the sanctions kicked in and kids could transfer with no penalty?

Yes he made a ‘business decision’.

Guessing Mauti would knock him out if paths crossed.

 

[MacNit2.0]

I said it before and will say it again. Franklin is great at recruiting 4 star players, but he needs to get 1 to 3 5-star players per class to compete. Switch Harrison Jr from OSU to PSU and I think that game plays out differently.

Another excellent point.