5 games go to conference winners. That leaves 7 at large.
Minimum 3 more from the SEC
Minimum 2 more from BiG
ND
That leaves 1. It could be another team from the BiG but that seems far from guaranteed. What if the ACC gets Miami + 1 loss Louisville? What if the Big 12 gets Utah + another 1 loss team? What if Liberty finished undefeated in CUSA or if there's a 1 loss team in the AAC or Pac 12?
Assume PSU finishes 10-2 with losses to USC and OSU. There won't be any signature wins. Who is to say that's better than an undefeated MAC team like NIL who beat ND?
My opinion is that 9-3 won't do it. We have to finish in the top 8 or 9 to qualify. I'm rooting against Oregon & USC because they are our biggest competition. I'm also hoping that somebody else can knock off ND.