Final Bracketology Thoughts

[Maroon Eagle]

Here's the last part of my thoughts regarding how I think the bracket will work. As previously mentioned, I'm posting daily updates during tournament week.

Saturday's thoughts.
Friday's thoughts.<span style="text-decoration: underline;">
</span>Thursday's thoughts.
Wednesday's thoughts.
Tuesday's thoughts.
Monday's thoughts.
Sunday's thoughts.
March 2 thoughts.

(x - conference leader; z - conference champion & winner of NCAA tournament berth)

1-seed
xNorth Carolina
zMemphis
zUCLA
xTexas

Memphis and UCLA clinch automatic bids. Texas moves up from the 2-seed. If Kansas beats Texas, the two schools will swap seed spots. If UNC loses to Clemson, I don't see the Tar Heels dropping out of the 1-seed.

2-seed
Kansas
Georgetown
Tennessee
xWisconsin

Tennessee moves down from the 1-seed. Wisconsin moves up from the 3-seed.

3-seed
Duke
Stanford
zDrake
Louisville

Duke moves from the 2-seed. The only way anyone moves up is if Illinois beats Wisconsin. I could see the Badgers and Blue Devils swapping spots.

4-seed
Xavier
Notre Dame
zButler
Clemson

Clemson moves up from the 5-seed.

5-seed
Vanderbilt
Michigan State
Pittsburgh
Connecticut

Michigan State falls from the 4-seed.

6-seed
Purdue
Marquette
zKent State
Oklahoma

Kent State wins the MAC automatic berth, and along with Oklahoma move from the 7-seed.

7-seed
Brigham Young
zUNLV
Washington State
Indiana

BYU moves from the 6-seed. UNLV wins the MWC automatic bid and moves up from the 8-seed.

8-seed
Southern California
West Virginia
xArkansas
Mississippi State

Arkansas moves up from the 9-seed. MSU drops from the 6-seed. If Arkansas defeats Georgia, I don't expect them move up.

9-seed
Miami, FL
zDavidson
Texas A&M
Gonzaga

Texas A&M moves from the 10. Gonzaga drops from the 8.

10-seed
Kansas State
Kentucky
Baylor
St. Mary's

Kentucky falls from the 9.

11-seed
Illinois State
zTemple
Arizona
zWestern Kentucky

Temple clinches the A-10 automatic bid. Western Kentucky moves to the 11-seed.

12-seed
St. Joseph''s
South Alabama
Ohio State
Villanova

Ohio State and Villanova enter the bracket.

13-seed
zOral Roberts
zGeorge Mason
zSan Diego
zCornell

14-seed
zSiena
zCSU Fullerton
zAustin Peay
zMaryland-Baltimore County

Maryland-Baltimore County and CSU Fullerton earn automatic bids.

15-seed
zPortland State
zBoise State
zAmerican
zBelmont

Boise State earns an automatic bid.

16-seed
zWinthrop
zMount St. Mary's
xUT Arlington
Play-in
zCoppin State
zMississippi Valley State

Coppin State and Mississippi Valley State earn automatic bids and are in the play-in game.

In the Bracket
Coppin State
Ohio State
Villanova

Out of the Bracket
UMass
Morgan State
Virginia Tech

Last Four In:
St. Joseph''s
South Alabama
Ohio State
Villanova

Last Four Out:
Massachusetts
Virginia Tech
Oregon
Virginia Commonwealth

Next Four Out:
UAB
Mississippi
New Mexico
Syracuse

Tough decisions. In the end, I decided that St. Joseph's did just enough to stay in the bracket. They have a slightly better RPI and SOS than UMass and reached the A-10 final. Ohio State and Villanova also have superior SOS and decent conference performance. Ohio State moved up because of Virginia Tech's loss to UNC. Villanova making the bracket was a tough decision. I dropped UMass because I don't think there will be four teams from the A-10 to make the tournament, and I thought that St. Joseph's was a better team than the Minutemen. I also think Villanova has a better record across the board than Oregon, VCU, UMass, and Virginia Tech.

If Illinois or Georgia win their tounament final, it'll be interesting.

Edited to add reasoning behind thoughts, and what I will happen if certain teams win or lose tournament finals.

 

[seingeyedog]

can garner a 7 seed, although I wouldn't feel as if the Dogs were slighted in the least should they fall to an 8. May be better to be an 8 seed to put a chip on the dogs' shoulder. Lord knows they have a way of underachieving whenever they get a little respect and recognition. Think Vanderbilt is overrated as a 5 seed, but that is still likely what they will get. I don't think they will last past the second round. Arkansas could move past MSU to a 7 seed, but I don't see it happening. The result of the SEC championship won't be known prior to seeding, will it? The Hogs will get a nice boost from beating the Volunteers, but they did finish 3 games behind lowly MSU in the West. Maybe they both share 8 seeds just like you predict. Think Arkansas and Tenn are the two SEC teams most likely to win 2 or more games in the NCAA. UT is loaded and would be a major disappointment IMO if they don't at least make the Elite 8. UPig has the talent and senior leadership to go to the sweet 16, yet the inconsistency to drop the first game. MSU doesn't have the guard play or brain power to go past the round of 32 IMO.

 

[RunsLikeADeere]

?

 

[Maroon Eagle]

...but I mentioned on another thread earlier in the afternoon that Ohio State was out thanks to Georgia.

I had one at-large miss-- Oregon. I had Illinois State ahead of them. Only one miss this year-- one better than I did last year, but Lunardi was perfect this year after missing two in 2007.

Edit to add: I would have put Georgia as a 13-seed due to the conference strength and moved a 13-seed up to 12, but a 14-seed makes sense since that's where Georgia's lined up as far as the RPI is concerned.