Football Record Against Teams Ranked at End of Year

[ZombieKissinger]

I saw posts about this yesterday, and I'd always been curious about this, so I put it together. I may have missed a game or two, but this should be pretty accurate. I started in '96 and I used the AP poll because they have a final poll in January. There was at least one game (Tulsa, last year) where we knocked them out of the poll to end the season, so it doesn't count as a win against a final ranked team, but it would've counted as a loss if we've lost. This is all a bit biased against us since a win against us would increase the chance a team is ranked, while a loss would do the opposite. Anyway, here it is:

Record since 1996: 11-81
Record since 2001: 5-70 (2021 is tbd because we don't have a final poll yet)

1996 - Bama W, LSU L, Auburn L
1997 - LSU L, Georgia L, Auburn W, Ole Miss L
1998 - Arkansas W, Tennessee L, Texas L
1999 - Alabama L, Arkansas L, Ole Miss W
2000 - Florida W, South Carolina L, LSU L, Auburn W
2001 - South Carolina L, Florida L, BYU L, LSU L
2002 - Alabama L, Auburn L
2003 - LSU L, Ole Miss L, Tennessee L
2004 - Auburn L, LSU L
2005 - Auburn L, Georgia L, LSU L, Florida L, Alabama L
2006 - LSU L, Auburn L, Arkansas L, Georgia L, West Virginia L
2007 - LSU L, Tennessee L, Auburn W
2008 - Georgia Tech L, Alabama L, Ole Miss L
2009 - Georgia Tech L, LSU L, Ole Miss W, Alabama L
2010 - Auburn L, Alabama L, LSU L, Arkansas L
2011 - Alabama L, Arkansas L, LSU L, Georgia L, South Carolina L
2012 - Alabama L, Texas A&M L, LSU L
2013 - Oklahoma St L, Auburn L, LSU, L, South Carolina L, Texas A&M L, Alabama L
2014 - Georgia Tech L, Ole Miss L, Alabama L, Auburn W
2015 - Alabama L, LSU L, Ole Miss L
2016 - Alabama L, LSU L, Auburn L
2017 - LSU W, Georgia L, Auburn L, Alabama L
2018 - Iowa L, Texas A&M W, Kentucky L, Florida L, LSU L, Alabama L
2019 - LSU L, Auburn L, Alabama L
2020 - Alabama L, Texas A&M L, Georgia L

 

[dawgstudent]

Good stuff although I wouldn't mind knowing the record when we played them and they were ranked.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I thought we'd have more just based on my memory because I remember big wins against ranked teams, but after we play them, I quit paying attention to how their years turn out. I'd assumed that 2016 Texas A&M team we beat (#7) and the 2018 Auburn team (#8)8) 8 ) had ended the year ranked but neither did.

 

[FlotownDawg]

In nine seasons, Dan Mullen had three wins over teams that finished the season ranked, and one of those was in his very first season. I knew he rarely beat any teams he wasn’t supposed to, but wow. That stat is staggering.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

It's very possible that Leach will match or exceed those three wins Mullen had in this year alone - A&M, UK, NC State, Ole Miss could all end up ranked. Auburn probably won't but still in the discussion

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

Good grief. 4-44 Since Mullen came to town. I thought we were pretty good during that time. We really are the Charlie Brown of college football.

View attachment 22954

Prolly going to have to get into this with my therapist now... Thanks Zombie.***

 

[PBDog]

Day-yam why are people butt hurt over mullens leaving?

 

[Smoked Toag]

Those are some telling numbers. Of course, no one's will be good except the best of the best.

And it bears out what I've said for a long time - 2000 was probably our greatest collection of overall talent. That was truly our year.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

It's very possible that Leach will match or exceed those three wins Mullen had in this year alone - A&M, UK, NC State, Ole Miss could all end up ranked. Auburn probably won't but still in the discussion

NC State will need to win its last two. I think Auburn will get back in with a win over south carolina and a bowl win. but without Nix that may be a tall order.

Kentucky can probably just win 2 of 3 to get back to the TOP 25. TAMU just has to beat LSU or their bowl opponent and they'll stick.

WE JUST GOTTA BEAT Ole Miss.

 

[the dog is on the loose]

I saw posts about this yesterday, and I'd always been curious about this, so I put it together. I may have missed a game or two, but this should be pretty accurate. I started in '96 and I used the AP poll because they have a final poll in January. There was at least one game (Tulsa, last year) where we knocked them out of the poll to end the season, so it doesn't count as a win against a final ranked team, but it would've counted as a loss if we've lost. This is all a bit biased against us since a win against us would increase the chance a team is ranked, while a loss would do the opposite. Anyway, here it is:

Record since 1996: 11-81
Record since 2001: 5-70 (2021 is tbd because we don't have a final poll yet)

1996 - Bama W, LSU L, Auburn L
1997 - LSU L, Georgia L, Auburn W, Ole Miss L
1998 - Arkansas W, Tennessee L, Texas L
1999 - Alabama L, Arkansas L, Ole Miss W
2000 - Florida W, South Carolina L, LSU L, Auburn W
2001 - South Carolina L, Florida L, BYU L, LSU L
2002 - Alabama L, Auburn L
2003 - LSU L, Ole Miss L, Tennessee L
2004 - Auburn L, LSU L
2005 - Auburn L, Georgia L, LSU L, Florida L, Alabama L
2006 - LSU L, Auburn L, Arkansas L, Georgia L, West Virginia L
2007 - LSU L, Tennessee L, Auburn W
2008 - Georgia Tech L, Alabama L, Ole Miss L
2009 - Georgia Tech L, LSU L, Ole Miss W, Alabama L
2010 - Auburn L, Alabama L, LSU L, Arkansas L
2011 - Alabama L, Arkansas L, LSU L, Georgia L, South Carolina L
2012 - Alabama L, Texas A&M L, LSU L
2013 - Oklahoma St L, Auburn L, LSU, L, South Carolina L, Texas A&M L, Alabama L
2014 - Georgia Tech L, Ole Miss L, Alabama L, Auburn W
2015 - Alabama L, LSU L, Ole Miss L
2016 - Alabama L, LSU L, Auburn L
2017 - LSU W, Georgia L, Auburn L, Alabama L
2018 - Iowa L, Texas A&M W, Kentucky L, Florida L, LSU L, Alabama L
2019 - LSU L, Auburn L, Alabama L
2020 - Alabama L, Texas A&M L, Georgia L

That's depressing.

 

[Dawgzilla]

In nine seasons, Dan Mullen had three wins over teams that finished the season ranked, and one of those was in his very first season. I knew he rarely beat any teams he wasn’t supposed to, but wow. That stat is staggering.

That 2009 win over UMiss may be the biggest upset of Mullen's career.

Although to hear him talk, beating Samford last week was pretty big, too.

 

[MadDawg.sixpack]

This just proves even more how useless of a stat this is. By definition, only a top 10 team would realistically have a chance for a winning record versus the final top 25. And teams like MSU, that get to play 3-6 ranked teams per year, at least one or two in the top 10 if not the #1 team, are just going to have terrible records in these games. It doesn't mean Mullen sucks. It means we aren't a top 15 program. Period.

 

[johnson86-1]

I saw posts about this yesterday, and I'd always been curious about this, so I put it together. I may have missed a game or two, but this should be pretty accurate. I started in '96 and I used the AP poll because they have a final poll in January. There was at least one game (Tulsa, last year) where we knocked them out of the poll to end the season, so it doesn't count as a win against a final ranked team, but it would've counted as a loss if we've lost. This is all a bit biased against us since a win against us would increase the chance a team is ranked, while a loss would do the opposite. Anyway, here it is:

I think the combination of poor overall perception of MSU and being the SEC West skews it more for us than for most teams. Because poll voters are low information voters, they penalize teams harshly for a loss to us, even when we are pretty good. And I also think there isn't much difference between say 20th and 35th teams in the nation, but teams we play in the SEC get pushed out of the poll because they don't get proper credit for their strength of schedule. For example, last year, we did not play well at all and still beat a team that was ranked at the end of the regular season. The team that replaced them probably wasn't any better. But beating those teams would count but beating a "down" Auburn team that is almost certainly better than those teams doesn't count, because a "down" auburn team is going to have 4 conference losses (or more) and get pushed out of the top 25.

 

[Go Budaw]

This just proves even more how useless of a stat this is. By definition, only a top 10 team would realistically have a chance for a winning record versus the final top 25. And teams like MSU, that get to play 3-6 ranked teams per year, at least one or two in the top 10 if not the #1 team, are just going to have terrible records in these games. It doesn't mean Mullen sucks. It means we aren't a top 15 program. Period.

Nobody’s asking for a winning record. But 4-44 is awful. That’s winning less than 10% of the time against teams that finish ranked, when the team you have on the field had a winning record damn near every year. Going 10-38, 15-33, etc aren’t unrealistic goals.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

A more telling stat might be wins against teams that finished with a winning record. Rankings are by nature subjective. But the win-loss column is not. I'd be curious to know what our record is against teams that win more than they lose.

 

[BigDawg0074]

One problem is when State kicks their tails everyone knows that team wasn’t any good right?

 

[Smoked Toag]

A more telling stat might be wins against teams that finished with a winning record. Rankings are by nature subjective. But the win-loss column is not. I'd be curious to know what our record is against teams that win more than they lose.

Winning record in the SEC could tell us even more. While all SEC schedules aren't equal, it's as close as we'll get. We've been playing an 8-team SEC schedule since 1992.

 

[BhamDawg91]

A more telling stat might be wins against teams that finished with a winning record. Rankings are by nature subjective. But the win-loss column is not. I'd be curious to know what our record is against teams that win more than they lose.

Since 1992 we are 58-138 vs teams with winning records. This excludes fcs teams but includes bowl games.

From 1992-2009 we are 26-78 and from 2009 to 2020 we are 32-60. Improving?
Considering 5 of the 8 sec teams on our schedule every year end up with a winning record. From 2013-2019, 6 of our sec opponents had winning records each year.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

Our inability to beat Bama and GT in 2014 still gnaws at me. I get that OM was loaded and playing better, but if we beat Bama we are in the SEC Championship game and DAN either choked or was already jockeying for a new assignment.

 

[Go Budaw]

Winning record in the SEC could tell us even more. While all SEC schedules aren't equal, it's as close as we'll get. We've been playing an 8-team SEC schedule since 1992.

A winning record in the SEC is almost guaranteed to be a team ranked in the Top 15. You’re going to make it look even worse by restricting it to those numbers. The only win of such magnitude we have since Mullen took over, off the top of my head, is 2015 Arkansas. And that was an oddball team that still wasn’t Top 25 at the end of the year (lost to Toledo, Texas Tech, and had the 4th and 25 miracle that aided their over .500 finish). Maybe the only SEC team in the past couple of decades to have a winning record and not finish in the Top 25.

 

[BhamDawg91]

Our inability to beat Bama and GT in 2014 still gnaws at me. I get that OM was loaded and playing better, but if we beat Bama we are in the SEC Championship game and DAN either choked or was already jockeying for a new assignment.

I still think if we had played Bama earlier in the schedule it might have been different.

Here is the 2014 schedule

8/30 vs. USM (3-9) W 49 0
9/6 vs. UAB (6-6) W 47 34
9/13 @ SoAlabama (6-7) W 35 3
9/20 @ *LSU (8-5) W 34 29
10/4 vs. *Texas A&M (8-5) W 48 31
10/11 vs. *Auburn (8-5) W 38 23
10/25 @ *UK (5-7) W 45 31
11/1 vs. *Arkansas (7-6) W 17 10
11/8 vs. Tenn-Martin W 45 16
11/15 @ *Bama (12-2) L 20 25
11/22 vs. *Vandy (3-9) W 51 0
11/29 @ *Miss (9-4) L 17 31
12/31 vs. GaTech (11-3) L 34 49

7 teams with a winning record, 6 SEC
Only 2 other times State has gone 6-2 in conference since 92.