Hosting Picture

[Perd Hapley]

Teams that are locks are below. Could lose all the rest of their games….wouldn’t matter.

A&M
Ark
UK
Clemson
UNC
UTenn

Conditional hosts are below. 2 guaranteed out of these 4. These are paired teams in which 1 of the 2 will host and the other probably will not.

USC-UGA: They play each other next weekend and are both hovering at .500 in league play. Whoever loses this series won’t be in a great spot, with the winner likely just needing 1 more win in SEC play to lock up a host spot.

Oregon State-UCSB: NCAA always try to put at least one regional out west, but don’t generally force multiple teams out there that are on bubble, due to the travel costs for other schools. Both these teams are on the back end of the Top 16, and I don’t see both getting a host site. UCSB is probably is the odd team out.

Probable hosts - teams likely to host unless they just totally melt down. 4 more teams here:

Indiana State
East Carolina
Florida State
Virginia

That’s 12 out of 16 spots that are relatively assured.

Now, who’s definitely in the RPI range to host, but definitely isn’t? That’d be a slew of SEC teams: Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, and probably Vandy. Also put in the 2 of 4 between UCSB, OSU, USC, UGA.

What’s left for those last 4 spots? As of right now, it’s MSU, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Wake Forest, Dallas Baptist, and NCSU. I believe 4 of those 6 are going to host, and those other 5 teams are the ones we should be watching the most closely.

 

[57stratdawg]

Just win baby! I feel like winning today is big because we’ve had our hands full with Missouri in the past. Honestly, at Arkansas can only really help us.

 

[She Mate Me]

Honestly, at Arkansas can only really help us.

Unless we get swept. There, I typed it.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

I don’t see the SEC getting over 4 hosting spots

 

[RockyDog]

I don’t see the SEC getting over 4 hosting spots

Why not? 16 of the top 25 teams are ACC or SEC teams. Outside of those 2 conferences there’s not a whole lot left that is very impressive outside of Oregon State and Oklahoma.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Why not? 16 of the top 25 teams are ACC or SEC teams. Outside of those 2 conferences there’s not a whole lot left that is very impressive outside of Oregon State and Oklahoma.

NCAA Politics.

 

[60sdog]

I believe if we can sweep we probably can host with only one win at Arky. If don’t sweep then probably need two at Arky.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

NCAA Politics.

Have they seen our stadium?**

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

 

[patdog]

I don’t see the SEC getting over 4 hosting spots

5. Maybe 6. UK, A&M, Ark & UT. Then 1 or 2 from USC, UGA, or MSU (we won’t be the 5th host though).

Edit: UGA will host for 5, USC will probably host. We have an outside chance to host.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

NCAA Politics.

The SEC had 8 hosts last year. Why make up a persecution complex?

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Bottom line, we have a good team, but the total blunders throughout the year have made us a solid 2 seed rather than a host. Take from that what you will. It’s Lemonis’ fault that we lost those games, but it’s also to his credit that we’ve won the ones we did.

Now he has to go win 2 at Arkansas if we wants to erase all doubt.

 

[3-2 Dawg]

5-2 to end the regular season and State hosts. 4-3 and it depends on what others do

 

[Thebulldogcountry1]

38 wins and a top 20 RPI used to be the minimum to host. I don’t see us getting to 38.

To be in the top 30 with “only” 32 wins kind of tells me that our schedule maybe wasn’t so bad.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

5-2 to end the regular season and State hosts. 4-3 and it depends on what others do

This is probably the answer unless we somehow avoid playing the UNA game. It would help if we could get a high RPI win or two in Hoover.

 

[Bulldog from Birth]

Teams that are locks are below. Could lose all the rest of their games….wouldn’t matter.

A&M
Ark
UK
Clemson
UNC
UTenn

Conditional hosts are below. 2 guaranteed out of these 4. These are paired teams in which 1 of the 2 will host and the other probably will not.

USC-UGA: They play each other next weekend and are both hovering at .500 in league play. Whoever loses this series won’t be in a great spot, with the winner likely just needing 1 more win in SEC play to lock up a host spot.

Oregon State-UCSB: NCAA always try to put at least one regional out west, but don’t generally force multiple teams out there that are on bubble, due to the travel costs for other schools. Both these teams are on the back end of the Top 16, and I don’t see both getting a host site. UCSB is probably is the odd team out.

Probable hosts - teams likely to host unless they just totally melt down. 4 more teams here:

Indiana State
East Carolina
Florida State
Virginia

That’s 12 out of 16 spots that are relatively assured.

Now, who’s definitely in the RPI range to host, but definitely isn’t? That’d be a slew of SEC teams: Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, and probably Vandy. Also put in the 2 of 4 between UCSB, OSU, USC, UGA.

What’s left for those last 4 spots? As of right now, it’s MSU, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Wake Forest, Dallas Baptist, and NCSU. I believe 4 of those 6 are going to host, and those other 5 teams are the ones we should be watching the most closely.

It’s very simple. 6-1 and we should host. It will be a 2 seed otherwise unless we grab a couple huge rpi wins at Hoover against the Top 3-4 of the SEC.

 

[HuntDawg]

UGA at this point with an RPI at 5. Barring a melt down is a lock. Heck at this point if they get to 16 wins. Which is simply going 3-3 from here out they'll get a host spot. I actually think 15-15 with 2 wins in hoover gets them in. The certainly arent fighint Carolina for a spot, nor are they eliminated even if they lose a series. Carolina is in the same boat. If they go 3-3, they'll host. And if they go 2-4, there RPI might go UP.

16 wins by SC or UGA they are locks to host. With UGA non conference RPI being high, they'll likely be rewarded and host with 15 wins.

Pac 12 champion and the Big 12 Champion will host. These arent what if spots, they are locks at this point. Oklahoma and Oregon State will host if they win their conference.

We have to hope for a very strong finished (either winning hoover or winning 2 of 3 from Ark).. or we have to hope for some meltdowns. UGAs RPI is 5, they are a virutal lock to host at this point barring meltdown. USC has an avenue to host thats easier than ours. Pac 12 and Big 12 champs will host.

We are in a group with Alabama, Us, Duke, NCState, Dallas Baptist, Nebraska, Wake, Oklahome State-- fighitng for 2 spots. All can play their way into hosting, but some have easier avenues.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

UGA at this point with an RPI at 5. Barring a melt down is a lock. Heck at this point if they get to 16 wins. Which is simply going 3-3 from here out they'll get a host spot. I actually think 15-15 with 2 wins in hoover gets them in. The certainly arent fighint Carolina for a spot, nor are they eliminated even if they lose a series. Carolina is in the same boat. If they go 3-3, they'll host. And if they go 2-4, there RPI might go UP.

16 wins by SC or UGA they are locks to host. With UGA non conference RPI being high, they'll likely be rewarded and host with 15 wins.

Pac 12 champion and the Big 12 Champion will host. These arent what if spots, they are locks at this point. Oklahoma and Oregon State will host if they win their conference.

We have to hope for a very strong finished (either winning hoover or winning 2 of 3 from Ark).. or we have to hope for some meltdowns. UGAs RPI is 5, they are a virutal lock to host at this point barring meltdown. USC has an avenue to host thats easier than ours. Pac 12 and Big 12 champs will host.

We are in a group with Alabama, Us, Duke, NCState, Dallas Baptist, Nebraska, Wake, Oklahome State-- fighitng for 2 spots. All can play their way into hosting, but some have easier avenues.

You’ve been bitching about our schedule all year. Now you say it’s strong?

Maybe if Hines had hit early on we would have won some of those games?

 

[HuntDawg]

You’ve been bitching about our schedule all year. Now you say it’s strong?

Maybe if Hines had hit early on we would have won some of those games?

what the 17 are you talking about? I didnt say the schedule was strong. Learn to read Goat

Im glad he hit when he hit. He's one of the biggest reasons why we've won 14 league games. I know you still think Chance and his 320 average in conference play makes him the best hitter though.

Again goat. Just stay in your lane. Most conversations are too difficult for you.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Yeah we are very likely somewhere in the 15-18 range in the pecking order right now. If you based it off where everyone is today I think we’d be the 15 or 16 seed. And I think it’s entirely possible the SEC gets 7 host sites. It has happened before, heck there were 8 last season.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Will be adventure watching you guys trying to figure out things during the tournament.

 

[HuntDawg]

Yeah we are very likely somewhere in the 15-18 range in the pecking order right now. If you based it off where everyone is today I think we’d be the 15 or 16 seed. And I think it’s entirely possible the SEC gets 7 host sites. It has happened before, heck there were 8 last season.

i dont think conference is going to matter. Best teams will get the spot. After this week a lot will clear up. Not only by our play at Arkansas but some other spots as well. If USC gets 2 from UGA. They are both in prime posititon to host.

But youve also got:
Wake vs Clemson, NCState vs Virignia in the ACC. If we are wanting a host spot, we need to pull hard for Virginia and Clemson.
Duke has a big RPI boosting week (ECU in mid week) at GaTech which is Quad 1 series.
OKlahoma State can get to 20 conference wins making them a lock to host-- and they have a winnable series this weekend
Nebraska has a big series against Indiana that can boost theri RPI


Hoover will be big for us.

 

[GloryDawg]

Obviously winning the series at Arkansas helps our RPI but does Missouri do anything for it winning it? Losing would hurt but does winning it helps?

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

i dont think conference is going to matter. Best teams will get the spot. After this week a lot will clear up. Not only by our play at Arkansas but some other spots as well. If USC gets 2 from UGA. They are both in prime posititon to host.

But youve also got:
Wake vs Clemson, NCState vs Virignia in the ACC. If we are wanting a host spot, we need to pull hard for Virginia and Clemson.
Duke has a big RPI boosting week (ECU in mid week) at GaTech which is Quad 1 series.
OKlahoma State can get to 20 conference wins making them a lock to host-- and they have a winnable series this weekend
Nebraska has a big series against Indiana that can boost theri RPI


Hoover will be big for us.

Wake being 12-12 in the ACC makes them very borderline. They just about have to win that Clemson series.

I think OK State may have lost their spot for now but they could win it back still. RPI of 24 and three games out of first in a not very good Big 12 is a problem for them.

Don’t see Nebraska hosting unless they win the Big 10, and maybe not even then. They are currently a game behind Illinois.

Would also be rooting against UC Santa Barbara. They are in a solid spot now but play a terrible schedule down the stretch, almost have to win out, and even then I bet they drop some.

For us, gotta avoid getting swept in Fayetteville and then reassess what you need after next weekend. Like you mentioned, a bunch of important series in a week’s time.

 

[HuntDawg]

Wake being 12-12 in the ACC makes them very borderline. They just about have to win that Clemson series.

I think OK State may have lost their spot for now but they could win it back still. RPI of 24 and three games out of first in a not very good Big 12 is a problem for them.

Don’t see Nebraska hosting unless they win the Big 10, and maybe not even then. They are currently a game behind Illinois.

Would also be rooting against UC Santa Barbara. They are in a solid spot now but play a terrible schedule down the stretch, almost have to win out, and even then I bet they drop some.

For us, gotta avoid getting swept in Fayetteville and then reassess what you need after next weekend. Like you mentioned, a bunch of important series in a week’s time.

Wake is borderline. But winning 2 of 3 at home against Clemson. With their RPI. Would but them on the right side of borderline.

Agreed on OK State. However 1 big12 team will host. And OK State can run the table with their remaining shcedule and its hard to imagine an OK State team with a strong RPI and 20 or even 21 conference wins being left out of the hosting spot.

Nebraska can get there for sure. They are behind Illinois but they are the one team Illinois doesnt have to play this season. Which is odd.

Need to keep an eye on Duke. If Duke goes 3-1 this week their RPI will shoot up 7-8 points if not more.

Bottom line. Lots to be done for a lot of teams.. and this weekend will clear a lot of it up. B/T the series just mentioned above and all the SEC series this week a lot will clear up. At the end of this week. We need to be at 15 RPI or better.. or we are goign to be in trouble RPI wise.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Bump. Big win tonight.

Things playing out as expected. As predicted, one out of UGA-USC was going to be in a bad spot - and that is now very much USC. They got swept by UGA and now, at 13-14 in SEC play, pretty much have to sweep UT on the road in the final weekend just to have a shot at hosting.

Also as expected is that UCSB is continuing to fall. As more and more SEC / ACC teams keep playing each other, they are going to start moving UCSB out of the picture

Status of the 6 teams competing for 4 spots:

1) Wake Forest - has taken 2 from Clemson with a chance at a sweep. Good weekend for them.

2) MSU - held serve against Arkansas on the road, chance for big series win tomorrow.

3) OU - taken 2 from a bad Baylor team at home. Meh. No traction gained or lost by them.

(Done) Nebraska - had 3 putrid losses in a row since last assessment and no longer in the Top 30. Adiós. Replaced by Duke, see below.

4) Duke - Beat ECU midweek and split with GT. Decent week but probably the last host team in right now.

5) Dallas Baptist - No real opportunities for signature wins, also bad loss last weekend to Jacksonville State. They need a ton of help.

6) NCSU - Way down the RPI ranks, and might be the third team in the Raleigh-Durham metro looking for a host site, and overall in North Carolina. Not a good spot to be in. They do have Wake in the final weekend, and could jump back in the picture with a sweep.

Wake, MSU, and OU are the clear top 3 as of right now. Duke probably in the last spot for now, perhaps in tossup with UCSB, but who knows. A very clear Top 15, regardless, with none of those 13-15 teams looking like they will lose any ground this weekend.

ETA: Missed that ECU is starting to tank a little bit. Already lost twice to a bad Tulane team this weekend, and to fellow host competition Duke in the midweek. They need to right the ship or they will be out.

 

[She Mate Me]

I'm sure it won't affect their Top 8 status, but in case you missed it, A&M has lost 4 of 5 on the road at LSU and UM the last week+.

Is Ole Miss going to make the tourney?

 

[17itdawg]

Don't Ole Miss and LSU play each other the last weekend of the year? Probably winner of that gets in and the loser is out especially if one sweeps.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I'm sure it won't affect their Top 8 status, but in case you missed it, A&M has lost 4 of 5 on the road at LSU and UM the last week+.

Is Ole Miss going to make the tourney?

For Ole Miss, they have 5 games remaining against Top 40 RPI teams, including USM on the road this week. Think they need to win at least 3 of them to feel they have a chance to get to Hoover and play their way in.

It’s certainly not ideal for them, but they have a path. And its all kinda scary AF because it’s very similar to how it played out for them at the end of the season 2 years ago. On the plus side, that USM game might be the biggest midweek game in their history, and they are going to have to pull out all the stops pitching-wise to try and win it. Likewise, they’ll have to hold some arms back today to prepare for it, unless they end up getting blown out early today which also wouldn’t be good for them. That will hopefully hurt them in all those other games.

 

[Anon1669338224]

Do we have to win today to host? That's assuming we win the mizzou series.

 

[Dawgbite]

Do we have to win today to host? That's assuming we win the mizzou series.

I think we need three more SEC wins to host. One of those wins being against Arkansas helps add a little cushion vs sweeping Mizzou. I don’t know if a Hoover win helps as much as a regular season win simply because the better teams are more worried about setting up their pitching than winning the tournament.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

The hosting bubble is very tight still. Yes SC got swept so they’ve dropped way down the board. But Wake has won the first two against Clemson and likely slides into their spot.

It’s definitely going to come down to the wire and Hoover may be significant on whether or not we host.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Shhh! Don't talk about it, you might jinx us!

 

[HuntDawg]

Wake is currently a host without question. Swweping Clemson with a top 10 RPI.

oklahoma will host. Big 12 champ not gonna get left out of hosting picture. Also Oklahoma state is very much in the hosting picture

we are fighting with Dallas Baptist, nc state, Oklahoma state South Carolina and duke for a hosting spot.

mind you our RPI will drop from now until Hoover after today. We need to avoid a bad loss and get a game in hoover

right now there are 5 sec locks to host, 5 acc locks to host.

Oregon state will likely host same with ecu and Indiana state.

there are 3 spots left and another 6-8 games. Will be razor thin margins at the end

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Duke was in the mix too but just dropped a series to Georgia Tech and had a 1-3 week. Definitely hurts them

 

[HuntDawg]

Duke went 2-2

they have 4 quad 1 games in the last week. Including North Carolina who’s a national seed. A 3-1 week and it’ll be hard for duke not to host.

they’ll be 37-17 and have 17 wins in the acc plus probably a top 15 rpi.

all 4 games are home games. Duke controls their own destiny in terms of hosting

Duke was in the mix too but just dropped a series to Georgia Tech and had a 1-3 week. Definitely hurts them

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

We are not sweeping Mizzou.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

We are not sweeping Mizzou.

Not unless we play a 7-inning DH.

Worst case scenario for this team. The @patdog and @HuntDawg types of the world were wrong that we’d suck, and I was wrong that we’d host. Bottom line, we’re improved but with a senior laden team, the future doesn’t look great. We should have been better, but injuries kill yet again. I wonder how we stack up in that category, if it’s our strength and conditioning (which for most baseball teams, is mediocre at best), or if it’s just baseball in general.

And with the odds good that yet another SEC team will win the natty (Arkansas, Tennessee or aTm), it’s really just hard to care at this point.

I think we will see a bad year next year, then a coaching and talent overall of this program in 2026. Hope football and basketball can bridge that gap.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Not unless we play a 7-inning DH.

Worst case scenario for this team. The @patdog and @HuntDawg types of the world were wrong that we’d suck, and I was wrong that we’d host. Bottom line, we’re improved but with a senior laden team, the future doesn’t look great. We should have been better, but injuries kill yet again. I wonder how we stack up in that category, if it’s our strength and conditioning (which for most baseball teams, is mediocre at best), or if it’s just baseball in general.

And with the odds good that yet another SEC team will win the natty (Arkansas, Tennessee or aTm), it’s really just hard to care at this point.

I think we will see a bad year next year, then a coaching and talent overall of this program in 2026. Hope football and basketball can bridge that gap.

Yeah. Next years roster will have to have a big portal haul just to be competitive. Lemonis and GoTro must have been doing more bucket sitting than recruiting. Next year is the year to fire Lemonis. We are talking Polk2 type of talent at best.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Yeah. Next years roster will have to have a big portal haul just to be competitive. Lemonis and GoTro must have been doing more bucket sitting than recruiting. Next year is the year to fire Lemonis. We are talking Polk2 type of talent at best.

Maybe not hosting is a blessing in disguise. Had we made a run, Lemonis might have survived 2025.

I just don’t like the overall approach….at all. But he deserved the benefit of the doubt after 2023.

Lemonis haters may prove to be right in the long run. Would I trade the sequence? Depends on who wins the next few natties. It almost seemed like we opened the floodgates for the rest of the SEC, just like we did in 1985.