How mad would we be if that pass to Perkins for the win had gotten picked off?

[bonedaddy401]

We have the ball in range of a game winning field goal, wehaven'tgone for thethroatone time all night and a pick there kills us as far as momentum goes. We have to get the ball back off the turnover and if wedon'tscore a touchdown they have the games fate intheirhands.<div>
</div><div>I know we scored on that pass and won it but I hate the play call. Just run the football and kick the field goal and get the 17 out of there. Let me guess, that was Relf's idea.....</div>

 

[bonedaddy401]

We have the ball in range of a game winning field goal, wehaven'tgone for thethroatone time all night and a pick there kills us as far as momentum goes. We have to get the ball back off the turnover and if wedon'tscore a touchdown they have the games fate intheirhands.<div>
</div><div>I know we scored on that pass and won it but I hate the play call. Just run the football and kick the field goal and get the 17 out of there. Let me guess, that was Relf's idea.....</div>

 

[PBRME]

Relf threw up a prayer. I'm glad we caught it, but we were fortunate to not turn the ball over there. If you pay attention Relf didn't step into the pass, he was about to get sacked and stepped back while throwing. Those are passes that typically get picked off.

 

[maroonmania]

appeared he was going to throw to the middle of the field but at the last instant diverted his pass over to Perkins near the sideline. We were very fortunate it worked out.

 

[benatmsu]

Initially when he dropped back instead of handing off, I said the same thing...

But, he had Perkins 1 on 1 with a LB I think... Relf threw it out in front of him where only Perk could get it. It was a prefect pass, It was either going to be incomplete or a TD.

What I don't understand though, is letting Relf air it out in that situation, when you're already in FG range, but not with 1 minute left in regulation where you need to get into fg range to avoid OT.

 

[Dawgzilla]

Good thing it worked.

 

[Center Z]

Hell, I'm already pissed. Nothing from that game made sense, but if I'm giving Mullen the benefit of the doubt, that play was a "Hey Relf, you have sucked *** all night, and you're probably going to be a head case for the foreseeable future, so I'm giving you one last chance to show you that I have confidence in you so that you don't go Wayne Madkin on us for the rest of the season" play. I want to say that Relf knew that was a "safe" throw (either TD or incomplete), but nothing he did during the majority of the game showed me that it was anything other than luck.

I just don't get why we chose to throw the ball all damn night. Sure, the middle was stuffed, but we were gaining yards on sweep **** and outside runs.

 

[EAVdog]

It was 3rd down, we were already in FG position. I think it was good to let Relf win it with his arm. He needs to get his confidence back or something. The whole team, coaches included, looked like they were trying too hard. Trying to be something that we just aren't. Maybe it was because we needed to try to work in more pass plays and we felt like LaTech was a good chance to do it, I don't know. We didn't run any option plays with Ballard except forsome zone read withRelf up the middle. And for that matter we didn't really run Ballard all that much. I feltlike they were trying to get Perkins more involved this game. I don't remember seeing any Wishbone lpays when we were in the red zone either. Wehave run those plays well the last two years.And why in the hell did we try the fake punt?

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

As soon as he let it go I though "Oh **** we are about to be picked off." and I was going to lose it right there in the stands.

 

[hulkbuster77]

It was the same play we ran earlier to Vick when he got his *** stuck and dropped it. The fake "jet sweep" (which we ran right before that was HUGE) and set up single coverage vs OLB and ACTUALLY Relf was looking at the seam route which NEVER opened up because the WR was running hard. The DT was closing on Relf and he saw Darius with a 2 step lead. LUCKY AS HELL, if i can be frank. Relf threw off his back foot and was going DOWN! Just like Al said in Any Given Sunday "inches are all around us. It's the guy who's will to go HARD for that inch that's gonna win!"

 

[downwarddawg]

Relf threw up a prayer. I'm glad we caught it, but we were fortunate to not turn the ball over there. If you pay attention Relf didn't step into the pass, he was about to get sacked and stepped back while throwing. Those are passes that typically get picked off.

That's the 1st thing I noticed. He wasn't set at all, actuallygoing backwards when he threw.Wewere very lucky on that throw. I'll take it though.

 

[dawgpound11]

Because I was quite the opposite. Sure, Relf was about to get hit, but as soon as it was in the air I yelled "touchdown". From my vantage point it looked like a perfect pass. I'm not saying we shouldn't have run the ball and kicked the FG because I still think that was the thing to do in that situation. I'm just saying it looked to me like the pass was executed about as well as possible.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Well I thought that when he let it go but once I looked where he was throwing and saw that Perkins had beaten his man (the DB was running for his life to catch him) then I thought game over.

 

[whosyourdawgy]

What if the LA Tech receiver doesn't drop a sure 1st down and give them 3 more downs to get in FG position? What if Dan doesn't try another fake punt? What ifs all around. BUT, we won! Watch the game film Sunday, burn it, work their asses off this week, and get ready for UGA. I told my bud that was the quickest I've left the stadium after we won that I can ever remember. You have to have a little luck to have a special season. We have a long way to go before this is a special anything, but maybe, hopefully we move forward from here and get back on track.

 

[MeridianDog]

Good thing to have experience that worked.

The fake punt - All I can say it that it cost us 7 points.

 

[boomboommsu]

Mullen doesn't trust Relf to throw at the end of regulation against LSU. Ok, their pass D is incredible, that's understandable. Mullen doesn't trust Relf to throw at the end of regulation against La Tech. Ok, maybe he knows something we don't. End of OT, no need for a 1st down at all, we throw a jump ball into the end zone? Taken together, those three things just do not make sense.

I'm thinking, without having watched a replay, that that play was really a run for Relf, with Perkins streaking deep just in case he was wide open, and Relf was about to get sacked and just chucked it. Otherwise, the only other conclusion is that our play calling has inexplicably turned Croomtastic.

The fake punt was Mullen outthinking himself yet again.

 

[dawgstudent]

It doesn't make sense to sit on the ball at the end of regulation but possibly take away a sure win with throwing the ball with aggressive play calling in OT. It was 2nd and 2 on that pass to Perkins. It worked out for us though and I guess that's all that matters. The play was executed well but it didn't match up with Mullen's philosophy at the end of regulation.

 

[EAVdog]

Relf is not a great QB. He's best when teams have to stack the line to stop the run. Now that teams are taking him more serious he's not as successful. I don't trust him not to make dumb throws, I can't see how Mullen would. I just keep getting this sense that Saturday was about Relf getting the opportunity to throw the ball a lot. His body language during the LSU game showed Relf really wanted to throw more and was unhappy with the play calling. Well Relf has his chance, pooped the bed, and it's time to winnow back down that playbook to something more managable and better suited to his skills.

 

[Hump4Hoops]

You wanted more taking it safe. DePaq is good, but there was no guarantee he would have hit that FG. Taking a shot at the endzone was a chance to let Relf end the game with some dignity. The throw was to the back corner, so an overthrow had no chance of getting intercepted.

Not only that, but Relf's pass was actually dead on perfect. It's not like a lucky shot in the dark that Perk had to dive to catch off a helmet.

 

[bonedaddy401]

and the smart play there is to run the ball, get the field goal and get the hell out of dodge.

 

[boomboommsu]

I think that is what's troubling everyone so much.

 

[Germans.sixpack]

Mullen's unpredictability is because he is our version of LSU's mad hatter.

 

[dawgstudent]

why would you say he could win it in OT? Like I said, his approach didn't match up between the end of regulation and OT.

Not a response directly to you boomboom.

 

[dawgpound11]

That's why I said in my other post: "I'm not saying we shouldn't have run the ball and kicked the FG because I still think that was the thing to do in that situation." And I thought we should have been aggressive in regulation and tried to get into FG range prior to overtime. And I don't necessarily agree with that last play call. I just found it interesting that many people's opinions were that they thought it would be a pick. Given Relf's previous throws I would normally agree...but when he let it loose and I saw the defender was beat and the pass looked good, I knew it was a TD unless Perkins 17'd it up.

 

[TheCosmoKramer]

I think that at the end of regulation, Mullen didn't want to put the team in a position to lose the game at that point.If we had turned the ball over in La. Tech's side of the field on our last series in regulation, the odds are that La Tech would have kicked a FG to win in regulation. Once we intercepted the ball in the first overtime, the worst thing that would happen from a pass play on second and short is that we go to another OT.

I didn't like the play calling or lack of time outs after we ran a few plays for decent yardage on the last series of regulation. But, I think the thought process there and in OT was "what's the worst that could happen here?"

As an aside, smartfootball.com has done a few pieces suggesting that the most effective play calling would be to just randomly select the play each time.</p>

 

[maroonmania]

was letting the clock run out at the end without even attempting a heave down to the LT 35 yard line or so to get a chance at a game winning FG attempt. The worst thing that could happen there is you throw an INT and the game ends anyway. I could see some initial runs to get out of the hole and not risk a turnover deep in your own territory. That part I had no problem with.

 

[boomboommsu]

If we fail to score on that OT possession, then we go to 2OT with the ball first. Odds of losing are >50%.

If we throw an INT at the end of regulation, then LaTech still has to drive30 yds and make a field goal, with about 20 seconds and 2 timeouts. I wouldn't put the odds of that as >50%.

 

[TheCosmoKramer]

I'm not calculating odds. I'm arguing the worst case scenario.

In the situation where we get the ball at the end of regulation with a tie game, turning the ball over in La Tech territory gives La Tech the ball with a chance to win and gives State no chance to answer. (I would have liked a more agressive approach here, but I'm guessing that's Mullen's thought process.)

In OT after La Tech doesn't score, turning the ball over gives both teams another shot at scoring from the 25. I think there's actually a coin toss after each OT, so there's a 50/50 chance we get the ball second, but even if we don't, we at least have another shot at scoring, which would not have been the case if we turned the ball over at the end of regulation.</p>

 

[boomboommsu]

"I think there's actually a coin toss after each OT, so there's a 50/50 chance we get the ball second, but even if we don't, we at least have another shot at scoring, which would not have been the case if we turned the ball over at the end of regulation."

There's not another coin toss, unless that's a new change for this year. It alternates, meaning we get the ball first for the second OT. Meaning we don't know if a field goal will win it or not, while LaTech would know once they have the ball. That's why having the ball last is a big advantage, an advantage LaTech would have had had, meaning our odds are >50% we lose should we throw a pick at the end of 1OT. So.....

" turning the ball over in La Tech territory gives La Tech the ball with a chance to win and gives State no chance to answer. "

...unless you think that chance of LaTech scoring there with 20 seconds is >50%, then Mullen's choices there do not make sense.

But, if we're going to go by 'worst case scenario', then there's not much of a worse one than having the chance at a chip shot FG for a win, and pissing it away. Hell, some teams don't even bother with rushing plays in that situation. They just run to whatever hash the kicker wants to kick from, and kick the ball early.

 

[Todd4State]

But, it didn't. And like I said, the silver lining is since we DID make the play- whether it made sense or not- it's something for Relf to build off of and get his confidence back. But I guess it's easier and more fun to ***** about what didn't go right.

Just like the woman in the yogurt shop last night that asked me my opinion of Relf- which I said something similar as I typed above- and she respnded with "Yeah, well what about all the passes he missed"? SO WHAT? He hit the one that counted. That's like hitting the game winning home run to win a game and someone pointing out that you struck out four times as well.

Anyway- one thing I have noticed about Relf is he throws to the sideline much better than he does down the middle of the field. Whether it's a roll out, or even a pass down the field to a back like the one to Perkins. So, if we are going to take a shot down the field in that situation, at least we called a pass play that he seems to complete more often than not. On top of that, throwing to the sideline is safer in general than throwing down the middle. And since Relf tends to overthrow everything instead of underthrow, it was probably safer than a lot of people think- remember the back of the end zone and the sideline would have helped us keep from getting the ball picked off as well.

And when Relf threw that ball, he had someone in his face. It was a heck of a play, lucky or not.

 

[TheCosmoKramer]

To be clear, I didn't like Mullen's play calling at the end of regulation, and I wouldn't have thrown the ball in OT. Also, you're right that the absolute worst case scenario in both cases is a loss. However, in one situation State does not get another shot at scoring while in the other situation State does get another shot at scoring. I think that could explain the differences in approach. Finally, as someone else noted in another thread, the conventional wisdom is to play for OT if you're the home team.


And, good call on the OTs switching without a coin toss. I was almost certain I'd seen additional coin tosses after the first OT before, but apparently not.

 

[boomboommsu]

I don't mind playing for OT a bit either. There's always a chance you break a run afterall, especially if the other team is expecting a pass.

"However, in one situation State does not get another shot at scoring while in the other situation State does get another shot at scoring."

You could also say that not throwing at the end ofregulation is giving up a chance at scoring: the chance of scoring to end regulation.

"However, in one situation State does not get another shot at scoring while in the other situation State does get another shot at scoring."

Yeah, but when the odds are wildly different, it matters that the odds are wildly different. That throw call in OT is just WAY riskier than throwing at the end of regulation. In that OT situation, you have a 90% chance of winning on a FG. You throw a pick, your odds of winning drop below 50%. At the end of regulation, we have like a 55% chance of winning (50% from going to OT,+ 5% chance of converting FG). Throwing a pick drops it to maybe 40% (20% LaTech converts, 50/50 in OT). It just doesn't make sense.

This "another shot at scoring" stuff is not how you win games. You win games by giving yourself the best chance to win. Sometimes, like saturday, the best chance at winning involves giving the other team the chance at the last shot at scoring. Dan Mullen gets paid millions of $ to give us the best chance of winning. I can get a random number generator for free on the internet, if that's how we want to call plays now.

 

[boomboommsu]

it's not necessarily wrong to play conservative at the end of regulation. but to do that, and then in OT when for the first time all night playing conservative gives you almost certainly a win, all of a sudden now you DON'T play conservative???

that is a big red flag that there is a coaching problem. that the coach is not in control of the circumstances, and is instead just winging it.

 

[TheCosmoKramer]

I don't really disagree with this, other than I think the numbers you're assigning are a bit arbitrary (though probably in the right ballpark). Ijust don't think that, in the flow of the game, it was completely illogical to play for OT, and then throw to the back corner of the end zone on second and short once we got the ball in OT.

On the randomness of play calling, here's one of the mentions on smart football that has an interesting discussion:

http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/strategery-round-up-6212010

 

[bonedaddy401]

we wouldprobablynot found ourselves in OT with La Tech in the first place. If he had been on we would have felt better about putting it in his hands to win it inregulationhad it come down to that.<div>
</div><div>Prime example, Steelers last night. Tie game. Get in field goal range. Ben takes a dive to the left hash. They bring the Kicker in, end the game, get on the bus and go home. Safe and smart play.</div><div>
</div><div>Look I'm glad it worked. Justdon'tthink it was a smart play call. These are the things you ***** about the season after you win 9 games and throttle Michigan in a New Years day bowl. Just comes with the wins.</div>