Hurricane Otis making landfall as a Cat 5

57stratdawg

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Mar 24, 2010
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This thing went from a tropical storm to Category 5 in a single day. That’s crazy.



 

johnson86-1

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
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Does the west coast of mexico ever get hurricanes that far south? I am guessing they are completely unprepared for a storm surge associated with a Cat 5, although with it only being a hurricane at all for a day, maybe the storm surge won't be typical for a Cat 5.

ETA: Apparently they were hit with a Cat 4 in 1997, so maybe they are prepared to the extent you can be for a Cat 5 and maybe hurricanes down there are not rare.
 

DesotoCountyDawg

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Nov 16, 2005
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Does the west coast of mexico ever get hurricanes that far south? I am guessing they are completely unprepared for a storm surge associated with a Cat 5, although with it only being a hurricane at all for a day, maybe the storm surge won't be typical for a Cat 5.

ETA: Apparently they were hit with a Cat 4 in 1997, so maybe they are prepared to the extent you can be for a Cat 5 and maybe hurricanes down there are not rare.
Damage so far looks pretty terrible. They had no time to prepare.
 

Boom Boom

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Sep 29, 2022
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I wonder if this will drive the models towards projecting more intensification. May get some overly intense projections the next few seasons.
 

Boom Boom

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Sep 29, 2022
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Also wondering if there was some human error in there. Some of those models may have shown something like what ended up happening, but the humans said wtf no way and adjusted it.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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Damage so far looks pretty terrible. They had no time to prepare.
Yea, I guess I meant something along the lines of "fortify" instead of prepare. If they got hit pretty hard in 1997, maybe the past 25 years of construction has higher elevation, stronger building, etc. than it otherwise would. Not sure Mexico sets requirements for those things like in the US, but maybe cost and availability of insurance imposes some discipline.
 

DesotoCountyDawg

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Nov 16, 2005
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Also wondering if there was some human error in there. Some of those models may have shown something like what ended up happening, but the humans said wtf no way and adjusted it.
I think Hugh’s Burner Phone can attest to that. Models can throw out some crazy results that get tossed out as an outlier.

It was the perfect situation and conditions for rapid intensification. The waters there are very warm this time of year especially during an El Niño.
 
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