I’ve lost all confidence in this team

[8dog]

So we have to be in the top half of the best league in America to not be “bad”? That’s a pretty absurd statement.

We average 5.93 runs per SEC game. The league average for all teams / all games is about 0.5 runs per game more than that. Being 0.5 runs per game off the average league pace in a year where we have played eight 7 inning games and one 6 inning game in terms of offensive opportunities is not bad by any stretch. Its especially not bad when considering the extent to which we are relying on true freshmen and super seniors like Hancock.

[/QUOTE]
Right. We are below average.

Here is how I look at it though. We lost to OM 3-2 and Auburn 2-1 against pitchers that are very average. Mix In some 6-4, 6-5 type losses and it’s the difference between playing for a regional and needing help to get in Hoover. With the juiced ball and tight zone you have to find offense to win some the latter type game this year.

 

[Perd Hapley]

You’re burying your head in the sand. As has been documented extensively in this thread, this team has a LOT of problems besides the biggest one which is the pitching. We probably don’t have 10 players who need to be on the 35-man roster next year.

This team has one problem that has to be fixed. If it is fixed, we will be a good team. If it is not fixed, it doesn’t matter what happens with the other “problems”.

And I’d be curious to know which guys don’t need to be on the roster in your count there. Should they choose to be back themselves, we’re certainly welcoming back Hines, Jordan, Mershon, Ledbetter, Larry, Highfill, Clark, Alford, Lo, Loftin, Cade, Gartman, and Dohm….plus several other of the bullpen arms that we still probably have no clue on how good they are or not (Siary, Holcombe, maybe some others). Probably welcoming back Hujsak and Chance, too. That’s 15-17 or so, which is a pretty normal carryover number for any college baseball team.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Right. We are below average.

Here is how I look at it though. We lost to OM 3-2 and Auburn 2-1 against pitchers that are very average. Mix In some 6-4, 6-5 type losses and it’s the difference between playing for a regional and needing help to get in Hoover. With the juiced ball and tight zone you have to find offense to win some the latter type game this year.

What? Tommy Vail is average? He’s a Friday night starter for a regional team….6th in the whole league in BA against and 10th in entire league in ERA. He’s way 17ing better than average. And that’s conference only stats.

But I guess you can make any argument you want sound a whole lot better if everything that, in reality, is really, really good is presented as “average”, and everything that is average in reality is presented as “below average / bad” in the argument.

 

[8dog]

What? Tommy Vail is average? He’s a Friday night starter for a regional team….6th in the whole league in BA against and 10th in entire league in ERA. He’s way 17ing better than average. And that’s conference only stats.

But I guess you can make any argument you want sound a whole lot better if everything that in reality is really, really good is presented as “average”, and everything that is average in reality is presented as “below average / bad” in the argument.

Vail was very average the first 7 sec weekends. Whip around 2 and 6 plus ERA. He went great in week 8 either. Honestly his stats are bolstered by playing us and OM.
Offense isn’t the reason we are here but it’s not very good either. I dont think it’s unreasonable to want to be above average in one of the primary metrics. Runs, fielding, Era.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Vail was very average the first 7 sec weekends. Whip around 2 and 6 plus ERA. He went great in week 8 either. Honestly his stats are bolstered by playing us and OM.
Offense isn’t the reason we are here but it’s not very good either. I dont think it’s unreasonable to want to be above average in one of the primary metrics. Runs, fielding, Era.

Actually, Vail was horrible for his first 4 league starts…..9.37 ERA in only 16.1 IP. Then the light went on…. past 5 starts he’s been damn near unhittable with a 1.26 ERA in 28.2 IP. Pitches again today….good luck to Mizzou. But that’s a pretty common trajectory for a guy recovering from TJ. He faced MSU in the 2nd of those 5 starts. I find it interesting (yet not surprising) that you arbitrarily chose a moment in time after he played MSU that he transitioned from being “average” to being good.

As for our offense, it’s an average SEC offense….by any measure (runs, OPS, BA, etc.). No more, no less. That means its one of the best 15 or 20 offensive teams in the nation when you adjust for the level of competition everyone faces. Plenty good enough to achieve any goal you want to name….host a regional, national seed, win the whole damn thing, whatever. And its at that level while only having 3 experienced SEC caliber hitters returning from last season - Clark, Hines, and Hancock.

From a hitting / offense perspective, that’s more than good enough for me when looking at recruiting, coaching, and developing players. And there’s 4 other years of data that are strongly in Geautreau’s favor as well. Fix. The. Damn. Pitching. Period.

 

[She Mate Me]

he's preparing for the inevitable heartbreak that's coming. Everyone is getting excited about the possibility we might actually make the sec tourney but somehow in miss st fashion they are going to give us hope until the last second and then rip our hearts out again.

Maybe so. I, for one lost confidence in this team a very long time ago. A close loss to TAMU in the last series of the year was just another loss.

And making Hoover meant absolutely nothing. We had zero chance of accomplishing anything worthwhile there.

 

[She Mate Me]

Actually, Vail was horrible for his first 4 league starts…..9.37 ERA in only 16.1 IP. Then the light went on…. past 5 starts he’s been damn near unhittable with a 1.26 ERA in 28.2 IP. Pitches again today….good luck to Mizzou. But that’s a pretty common trajectory for a guy recovering from TJ. He faced MSU in the 2nd of those 5 starts. I find it interesting (yet not surprising) that you arbitrarily chose a moment in time after he played MSU that he transitioned from being “average” to being good.

As for our offense, it’s an average SEC offense….by any measure (runs, OPS, BA, etc.). No more, no less. That means its one of the best 15 or 20 offensive teams in the nation when you adjust for the level of competition everyone faces. Plenty good enough to achieve any goal you want to name….host a regional, national seed, win the whole damn thing, whatever. And its at that level while only having 3 experienced SEC caliber hitters returning from last season - Clark, Hines, and Hancock.

From a hitting / offense perspective, that’s more than good enough for me when looking at recruiting, coaching, and developing players. And there’s 4 other years of data that are strongly in Geautreau’s favor as well. Fix. The. Damn. Pitching. Period.

Well said, this team had plenty of problems, but the pitching was very possibly the worst ever at MSU. It definitely was in terms of comparison to the 13 other league teams.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

We were at or near the league worst in errors in 2021. We saw how that turned out.

We were the best fielding team in the SEC in 2022. We saw how that turned out, too.

Sure…we’d all like to have a great fielding team every year, but errors in the field happen in college baseball…..and aren’t anywhere near our biggest problem. Nor are errors (or lack therof) indicative of good or bad coaching or a good or bad team. Both of the examples above prove that beyond a shadow of a doubt.

We were 9th in fielding in 21. We were 14th this year.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

This year:
10th in runs scored
9th in Avg
14th in era
13th in HR allowed
14th fielding
Led in DPs hit into
Last in DPs turned
We sucked! In just about all facets of the game.

 

[Perd Hapley]

We were 9th in fielding in 21. We were 14th this year.

In conference play we were 13th in fielding in 2021. 12th this year (ahead of Tennessee and Mizzou). FYI…the difference between us and the best fielding team in the SEC is about 1 additional error every 2 games. Comparatively, the difference between us and just the 13th place pitching staff is 2 whole runs EVERY game.

The errors just don’t matter very much….and outside of trading offense for defense on the recruiting trail (which is what everybody is doing now), it really can’t be controlled very much by the coaches.

And you’re whining about us being 9th / 10th in hitting while we’ve got freshmen and midmajor transfers up and down the lineup. You know where we’d be if we were simply 9th or 10th in ERA without changing anything else? 14-15 SEC wins and easily headed to a regional. That’s where.

Fix the 17ing pitching.