I simulated the entire season.

[pseudonym]

I used ESPN's FPI probabilities for all 12 games of all 16 SEC teams. I'm going to update my simulation every week with results and updated future game probabilities.

It is interesting how variable the results are.

Simulation 1 (fairly typical result):

Oklahoma beat Tennessee in the head-to-head to earn a spot against Georgia in the SEC championship game.

Simulation 2 (SEC beats itself up):

How many (if any) 9-3 SEC teams are in the CFP in this scenario?

Simulation 3 (crowded at the top):

Does a 10-2 SEC team get left out in this scenario?

Simulation 4 (SEC tiebreaker hell):

I think Tennessee would emerge as the #2 team: Tennessee beat Alabama, Alabama beat South Carolina, South Carolina beat Ole Miss. Someone check me on that. I could be confused as to how they would handle a four-way tie.

My takeaways:

• Fairly likely that the new SEC tiebreaker rules will be put to use to determine who plays in Atlanta, possibly between more than two teams that didn't all play each other.
• It will largely depend on what happens outside of the SEC, but don't be surprised by either CFP scenario: A 10-2 SEC team is left out OR a 9-3 SEC team is included.

 

[dickiedawg]

FPI hates Ole Miss, apparently.

 

[Wesson Bulldog]

That fourth scenario would be freaking awesome

 

[Xenomorph]

FPI must be run by Brett Favre.

 

[pseudonym]

FPI hates Ole Miss, apparently.

They really do:

• @ South Carolina - 56.7%
• Oklahoma - 45.9%
• @ Arkansas - 64.5%
• @ Florida - 52.3%

All of those probabilities feel too low to me.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

Get that thing run to have us undefeated

 

[patdog]

FPI hates Ole Miss, apparently.

I’m starting to buy in to their reality not meeting their expectations this season.

 

[M R DAWGS]

5-7 with noticeable improvement as the season progresses, discipline, and adequate coaching and I’ll be happy.
Anything better than that is gravy. Anything less will be disappointing.

I mean, that really isn’t asking much. I just ask for a very meager crumb of hope.

 

[patdog]

5-7 with noticeable improvement as the season progresses, discipline, and adequate coaching and I’ll be happy.
Anything better than that is gravy. Anything less will be disappointing.

I mean, that really isn’t asking much. I just ask for a very meager crumb of hope.

I’m right there with you.

 

[biodawg]

5-7 with noticeable improvement as the season progresses, discipline, and adequate coaching and I’ll be happy.
Anything better than that is gravy. Anything less will be disappointing.

I mean, that really isn’t asking much. I just ask for a very meager crumb of hope.

Agree. First year head coach. Pretty tough schedule. I would be satisfied with 5-7. 7-5 is about the most realistic ceiling, IMO.

 

[shep9332]

I'd gladly take 4-8 if it meant Mississippi went 7-5

 

[Irondawg]

Anything less than 9 wins is a disappointment for OM so hoping most of these models play out for them

I just don’t want them in the playoff

 

[CottonDog_]

I’m starting to buy in to their reality not meeting their expectations this season.

They won five 1 score games last year. Will not do it again this year.

 

[Walkthedawg]

5-7 with noticeable improvement as the season progresses, discipline, and adequate coaching and I’ll be happy.
Anything better than that is gravy. Anything less will be disappointing.

I mean, that really isn’t asking much. I just ask for a very meager crumb of hope.

That’s not a bad expectation at all. The schedule is killer. SEC knew we were in full rebuild mode this year and put the screws to us anyway. Same song.. different year.

 

[Chesusdog]

FPI hates Ole Miss, apparently.

Doesn't everyone?

 

[Chesusdog]

I’m starting to buy in to their reality not meeting their expectations this season.

It hasn't since segregation.

 

[dickiedawg]

Nm

 

[Dawgzilla2]

SEC knew we were in full rebuild mode this year and put the screws to us anyway. Same song.. different year.

You're not paranoid if the SEC really is out to get you.

 

[JonJuanQuixote]

Well I played this season through with State in NCAA 25 and we won the natty, so that's gotta count for something right?

 

[LandArchDawg]

FPI hates Ole Miss, apparently.

It's a good club to be in.

 

[pseudonym]

Simulation after Week 1:

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

Simulation after Week 1:
View attachment 641375

I wonder who is Mississippi's other loss other than UGA?

 

[pseudonym]

I wonder who is Mississippi's other loss other than UGA?

In this simulation, Mississippi defeated Georgia at home and lost to LSU and Arkansas on the road.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

I wonder who is Mississippi's other loss other than UGA?

It would probably be either Oklahoma or LSU. If UPIG can beat Ole Miss, I don't like our chance of getting to 6.

It would be hilarious to watch when Tennessee & Bama make the playoff while 10-2 Ole Miss stays at home.

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[pseudonym]

Simulation after Week 2:


6-6 would be tough for Bama fans...

 

[pseudonym]

Simulation after Week 3:


This would be an interesting tiebreaker scenario:

1. Alabama: def. Missouri and Tennessee (only head-to-head among 7-1 teams)
2. Missouri: better opponent winning percentage than Tennessee
3. Tennessee
4. Texas: lost to Vanderbilt (common opponent among all 7-1 teams)

This iteration shows how easily we can get to the fourth level of tiebreakers with only eight conference games.

 

[Dawgg]

Simulation after Week 3:
View attachment 651544

This would be an interesting tiebreaker scenario:

1. Alabama: def. Missouri and Tennessee (only head-to-head among 7-1 teams)
2. Missouri: better opponent winning percentage than Tennessee
3. Tennessee
4. Texas: lost to Vanderbilt (common opponent among all 7-1 teams)

This iteration shows how easily we can get to the fourth level of tiebreakers with only eight conference games.

Trying to think of what weird verbal or legal loophole the SEC office would employ to make sure Missouri isn’t #2 in a tie-breaker.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

Trying to think of what weird verbal or legal loophole the SEC office would employ to make sure Missouri isn’t #2 in a tie-breaker.

Oh hell, I've learned how to make my own now!

 

[pseudonym]

simulation after Week 5:

 

[BulldogBlitz]

...and there I thought the model would see our strain in ATX and grant us another win

 

[85Bears]

simulation after Week 5:

View attachment 661212

This looks right except Arkansas will win more, good chance they beat ole miss, LSU and possible Missouri. They will take 1-2 out of those three.
Florida will lose more , I don’t see Florida winning more than 1 sec game.

also a and m is looking like they are getting it figured out, I think they finish higher. their d line is very good.

 

[pseudonym]

simulation after week 8:

 

[Bobby Ricigliano]

simulation after week 8:
View attachment 675911

Did you toggle the switch that adjusts forecasted results based on beating the spread against top-5 teams (or top-15, not sure about the details of your system)?

 

[OG Goat Holder]

simulation after week 8:
View attachment 675911

Your simulations haven’t been great

 

[patdog]

Your simulations haven’t been great

They’ve been almost random. Had us 2-6 after the Toledo game & 0-8 after credible performances against 3 of the 4 best teams on the schedule.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

They’ve been almost random. Had us 2-6 after the Toledo game & 0-8 after credible performances against 3 of the 4 best teams on the schedule.

We should demand a refund

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

simulation after week 8:
View attachment 675911

Are you using a Commodore 64 or 128?