If conference realignment was a reality show.
- Thread starter patdog
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Still haven't figured out why those schools don't stick together. Maybe add one more team, move the HQ to Vegas, and roll. I'd probably add Nevada. Stick to geography, show some unity, and grab some odd ball TV deal. It is what it is, play a round robin of 9. Or if you want 12, go get Boise State and San Diego State. At least you're in areas that are big and are growing.
Can it really be that worse than the Big 12 TV deal?
Can it really be that worse than the Big 12 TV deal?
So I have no inside information. I'm just parsing what seems credible and what seems like bull through the various social media posts, message boards, blogs, and news sites.
What I believe to be true:
What could happen:
What I believe to be true:
- Big 12 has a pro-rata in its contract with ESPN that increases with every current P5 team poached.
- Big 12's pro-rata with Fox is more complex and Fox has to approve additional teams.
- Fox has basically given the greenlight for the Big 12 to grab any 2 Pac teams. One was Colorado. The other will be Arizona/ASU/Utah with Arizona being the favorite.
- Fox is additionally willing to greenlight Oregon and Washington specifically, but nobody else.
- Big 12 adding anything above the 14 + O and W means less money per school, so Big 12 is probably capped at 16 unless Fox ponies up for more teams. Sorry, Memphis.
- George Kliavkoff presented the presidents of the Pac with a deal today that was about $19-$25 Million per school.
- Pac presidents did not unanimously accept the deal.
- Arizona has a board of regents meeting today at 4:30 Central. Livestream here: https://www.youtube.com/user/abornews
- Arizona board of regents includes Arizona, Arizona State, and Northern Arizona
- Oregon and Washington don't really want to join the Big 12 because they think it's beneath them and a Big Ten invitation is waiting.
- Big Ten has some complexity in its media deal and is in no hurry to add Oregon or Washington.
- Arizona ends up going to the Big 12, but has to do some sort of annual 'make good' for leaving ASU behind in the Pac (like UCLA and Cal-Berkley)
- Arizona State, Utah, Stanford, Cal, Washington State, Oregon State remain in the Pac.
- Washington and Oregon are the wildcards. I tend to think they'll stay in the Pac and try to wait out the Big Ten.
- Pac adds SDSU, SMU, UNLV, and one more Texas (maybe Rice) or MWC team (maybe Colorado State) to get to 12. Sorry, Memphis
What could happen:
- Arizona and Arizona State are so tied at the hip that politics prevents either from joining the Big 12, in which case Utah gets the nod.
- Washington and Oregon hold their noses and join the Big 12 and, truthfully, will be lucky to get that.
- Pac adds SDSU, SMU, Colorado State, UNLV, Rice, and Hawaii in football only to get to 12. Gonzaga is added in everything but football.
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Yes, in addition to the money difference, which is probably going to be $8-$15 Million per year per team lower than the Big 12, the distribution is going to either be 100% streaming (Apple TV+ or Amazon Prime Video) or some mix of streaming and syndication/MeTV/CW/ION.
It's hard to call yourself a "Power Conference" when your major Primetime game is sandwiched between a Time Life Music Sounds of Doowop infomercial and Svengoolie. At least the Big 12 will have games on major networks.
Not to mention Apple only has 25M subscribers. And nobody outside of current fans is going to pay to add it for the PAC-12. You'd effectively be killing your visibility nationwide (or even in your own markets).
I tried out Apple this week and cancelled it at the end of the free trial. I didn't see the appeal and all the shlt I wanted to watch, had to be rented.
Damn. I was skeptical at first, but 19 to 25 bucks per school seems about right for the Pac-Leftovers.
Hahaha... That was supposed to be 19 to 25 million, but honestly... they may be doing it for handies and prepaid Visa gift cards by the time this thing actually gets voted on.
Doesn't look like they have much of a choice anyway. I do not think the B1G is going to come calling. They don't have to, they can steal Oregon/Washington from the PAC or Big 12. So I do think the PAC stays intact for now, but it's on borrowed time, just like the ACC.
Big 12 is probably regretting the moves it made, but I'm guessing they had to do that to secure the media deal.
Heck the PAC may not even expand. Maybe they could make some money by playing in neutral site games?
Exactly. On the one hand, it'd be nice for them if they weren't tied down by the AAC teams they added. But, if they hadn't, we're probably looking at the PAC-12 with the nice, signed media rights deal and the Big 12 in danger of falling completely apart.
I know I'm excited to catch pac-12 after dark on the gas station pumps
GSTV FTW baby!
I hear their backup deal if Apple falls through is to relaunch Quibi and HQ Trivia with Pac only content. Ever watched a game in portrait mode? Innovating****
My question regarding Arizona….why is the Big 12 courting them so hard as opposed to Arizona State? ASU is the far larger school (over 130,000 undergrad / post grad students), far larger metro TV market, and has always been the much bigger national name brand between those two universities. Has ASU been too prideful to give them the time of day, while also begging for a B1G slot?
I'd argue neither is a FB brand but AZ BKB is a huge national brand so if they're taking one, that would be the reason.
Agree that the football brand isn’t huge for either, but it isn’t really huge for any PAC school now. Even Oregon has fallen way off since around 2013-2014 or so. But there’s a lot more eyeballs on ASU and way more national alumni, too. Can’t tell me they don’t bring every bit as much to the table football wise as every current Big 12 school save for TCU and Oklahoma State, as well as every B1G school except Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and USC.
They just seem like a far more appealing addition to me than Arizona….for any conference. But maybe they are a package deal, and the leaks are only coming from the U of Arizona side.
I think the Big 12 realizes it's never going to match the SEC or Big 10 in football. But it has become the premier basketball conference in the country. And that's something they want to maintain and be their calling card. So, one of the top basketball schools in the country that has been a decent football school at times is pretty attractive to them. I actually think their mistake may have been in taking Colorado first. I realize that was a former Big 12 school and in some ways makes a lot of sense for them to take. But there could be a lot bigger schools available in a matter of days or weeks. They may have been better off without Colorado and add Arizona, Utah, Stanford, Oregon and Washington and UConn (for the basketball and New York presence) instead.
Here's what I think is about to happen.
Oregon and Washington, both AAU schools, are going to the Big Ten. The holdup is not UO and UW. The B1G has a master plan to shake up the college sports universe - Miami and the newest member of the AAU - Notre Dame. Its going to be a big splash - all four announced at once.
The Big 12 will get all three remaining from the Four Corners states, which will solidify them as the nation's premier basketball conference and a decent football conference - enough to warrant an auto-bid.
The Pac 12 is down to six teams - they'll add some MWC teams, Gonzaga in non-football, but will be irrelevant.
The ACC will make a last ditch effort to survive by adding South Florida and a Sun Belt team. But the SEC will have courted away Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, and will re-admit Georgia Tech. Virginia, UNC and Duke will go the Big Ten. NC State is the surprise loser, as they delay their decision.
At this point you have a 24 team Big Ten, a 20 team SEC and a 16 team Big 12. The remnants of the ACC and Pac 12 build a Coast to Coast Alliance and are initially given an auto-bid between the two of them.
Oregon and Washington, both AAU schools, are going to the Big Ten. The holdup is not UO and UW. The B1G has a master plan to shake up the college sports universe - Miami and the newest member of the AAU - Notre Dame. Its going to be a big splash - all four announced at once.
The Big 12 will get all three remaining from the Four Corners states, which will solidify them as the nation's premier basketball conference and a decent football conference - enough to warrant an auto-bid.
The Pac 12 is down to six teams - they'll add some MWC teams, Gonzaga in non-football, but will be irrelevant.
The ACC will make a last ditch effort to survive by adding South Florida and a Sun Belt team. But the SEC will have courted away Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, and will re-admit Georgia Tech. Virginia, UNC and Duke will go the Big Ten. NC State is the surprise loser, as they delay their decision.
At this point you have a 24 team Big Ten, a 20 team SEC and a 16 team Big 12. The remnants of the ACC and Pac 12 build a Coast to Coast Alliance and are initially given an auto-bid between the two of them.
Yeah, but a HUGE chunk of that ASU enrollment (and thus, alumni) is online. I found this article on their fall 2022 enrollment:
ASU sets new records with fall 2022 enrollment | ASU News
Angel Gutierrez is all packed and ready to begin life as a Sun Devil. The first in his family to go to college, Gutierrez worked hard to get here by doubling up on classes his senior year. All that hard work paid off for him as he earned the largest scholarship available to an Arizona resident...
Highlights of ASU’s projected record enrollment include:
- 79,232 students will be enrolled across ASU’s campuses and other locations, compared with 76,765 last year — an increase of 3.2%.
- 61,572 students will be enrolled through ASU Online, compared with 57,573 last year — an increase of 6.9%.
I would also argue that the University of Arizona is considered higher academically. ASU just got their AAU accreditation this year. Arizona has had it since 1985.
I think the biggest tiebreaker is men's basketball. You look up and down Arizona and ASU football/baseball/softball/women's basketball and there's not a huge difference. The Big 12 has been open about trying to build the premier basketball conference in the country and having a former champion helps bolster that.
Honestly, either Arizona school would be a good 'get' for the Big 12.
That's a pretty common usage pattern with Apple TV I think. People come in and watch Ted Lasso to see what the hype is about, then they either binge watch Ted Lasso and cancel or don't like Ted Lasso and cancel. There are some good shows and movies on there, but there's not enough of a catalog yet to keep people going. They do have live baseball and MLS, but I'm not sure either of those move the needle.
Also, as you stated, it's not immediately clear what's included in Apple TV+ and what's available to buy/rent. Amazon at least puts the little "Prime" badge over Prime content, but you have to go to the specific Apple TV+ section, which isn't blatantly obvious on every version of their app.
Maybe the biggest problem is, with full streaming, it'll be easy enough for the diehard fans that want to find and watch. But you're never going to get the casual viewer watching your games. And a good portion of the more casual fans just won't bother to sign up for a streaming service to watch. I think ultimately some form of PAC-12 late night will survive, with ESPN and/or Fox paying for 1 game per week in that slot for either the remnants of the PAC-12 or a PAC-12/MWC merger. But the price they'll be willing to pay just keeps dropping as schools abandon ship.
I just don’t really buy the basketball angle all that much. Not a lot of national interest in it, and a lot of their “good” basketball schools like Houston and Texas Tech are kind of new money who could fall right back off the map in a few years. And, Colorado historically sucks at basketball, as does UCF, so it doesn’t really seem to be their primary objective when looking at recent additions.
Just saying, if Arizona bolts for the Big 12, and there’s no interest in having ASU come with them, ASU is 100% going to the B1G or SEC. Massive school that would be a huge piece for revenue purposes for either league. It could be a mistake for Arizona to leave them behind for a league like the Big 12, when if they both stick together and play their cards right, they could navigate a much better future in the SEC or B1G. And yes, both Arizona and ASU are AAU schools, for those who follow such things.
ASU won't make the cut for either the SEC or Big 10. It just won't. It's highly questionable Washington, Oregon, or Stanford would. But the Big 10 may take them anyway as a preemptive move. I think where we'll wind up is ASU, UA, Utah to the Big 12 and Stanford, Cal, Oregon & Washington to the Big 10. I don't think the SEC has any interest in expanding that far outside its geographical footprint, which I think long-term is a much better strategy.
Never say never in this racket. Phoenix is a huge market, and the state of Arizona produces a solid number of players. It's not totally out of left field to go that route, if the SEC eventually went to 20+. After Clemson and Florida State, I think they are just as attractive as NC State or Virginia Tech.
Worrying about travel costs is a thing of the past, unless this TV thing collapses somehow.
OK, so they have “only” 80,000 on campus students (and a metro area of “only” 4.5 million residents), compared to 50,000 for U of A and only 1.2 million in Tucson.
I don’t think this means very much in regards to the Big 12 (or any conference, really). I mean, when are Texas Tech and Iowa State and West Virginia getting that juicy AAU cred? And they both meet the alleged “minimum” criteria that some say the B1G still has, even though they have a non-AAU member now….and would be beyond stupid to shun every non-AAU member if they have any desire at all to get above their very, very distant 2nd tier status in football to the SEC.
You only go to a tiebreaker when there is an actual tie. ASU has the stronger football history (especially in the modern era), and the much stronger economic and demographic advantage. Those are the factors driving everything. Neither is chopped liver, but if you’re only choosing one….ASU is the obvious decision.
Totally agree. But I don’t think the Big 12 would be a very good “get” for either one of them. Better than where the PAC 12 is headed, but that ain’t saying much.
If you’re a current Power 5 school with 50,000+ students, outstanding academics, at least a decent football program, and huge population areas and marketing appeal, it’d be foolish as all get-out to make a play for anything but the B1G or SEC. Both of the Arizona schools fit those criteria. They’d be dumb to sell themselves short in the Big 12 out of irrational fear that they’ll somehow get stuck with nowhere to go.
Phoenix is a pro sports city. ASU doesn't draw as well as Mississippi State does. Adding Texas to the SEC is barely moving the needle, if at all. ASU wouldn't even come close. They probably are as attractive as NC State or VA Tech, but if the SEC has to accept either of those when the ACC grant of rights ends, it will be seen as a huge failure.
If the Pac loses Arizona, ASU, and Utah to b12 and Washington and Oregon to b10, then that leaves Stanford, Cal, Wazzu, and Oregon St. They would need to add 6 teams to really be relevant. I would guess SDSU, Fresno, Boise, SMU, UNLV, and Memphis.
I think eventually b10 would swallow Cal and Stanford too to keep up the academics. Oregon St and Washington are inevitablly going to get left out from the Pac. ACC will lose FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, etc. too if those rights things get figured out.
I believe we are headed towards
Tier 1: SEC and B10
Tier 2: B12 and some PAC/ACC/AAC hybird
Tier 3: CUSA Sunbelt, MWC, MAC
I think eventually b10 would swallow Cal and Stanford too to keep up the academics. Oregon St and Washington are inevitablly going to get left out from the Pac. ACC will lose FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, etc. too if those rights things get figured out.
I believe we are headed towards
Tier 1: SEC and B10
Tier 2: B12 and some PAC/ACC/AAC hybird
Tier 3: CUSA Sunbelt, MWC, MAC
Probably not your cup of tea, but the first two seasons of Mythic Quest are pretty great. Last season was a bit meh, they definitely missed having C.W. to keep things weird.
The estimated payout per NCAA tournament game per school is about $2 Million. That's why basketball matters.
So if you make it but flake out before the Sweet 16, its no different than making a mediocre bowl game. Except its generally much, much more difficult to make the NCAAT than it is to make it to a bowl game as a P5 team.
I just don’t get it. Say you’re gonna add 4 teams. If those 4 teams give you an average of 2 additional NCAA 2nd round appearances per year, you get another $8 million per year. But you’ve gotta add some really high end basketball programs just to get that expectation. Now, say you pick 4 different teams, and you expect at least 3 of them can at least get to 6-6 or 7-5 every year in football, on average. Not so tough. That’s $9 -$12 million more per year as a floor, and if any of the 4 goes on a run and makes the CFP, that’s a payout thats equivalent to winning the whole thing in basketball for just that one team, plus whatever money the other 3 bring in.
Again, football is king. It pays far, far better just to be average or slightly above average in football than it does to be very good or even semi-elite in basketball. If Big 12 was adding a UK or UNC, yeah, I can see that being a play. But that’s not whats happening. And they are adding a lot of schools that really don’t excel in anything - looking at you, Colorado and UCF.
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Of course football is king. But I think the Big 12 recognizes that it will never be in the same league as the SEC and Big 10. So it's trying to find its niche as the premier basketball league. If an Arizona can get back to what they were from 2008-2017 when they went to 8 bowl games in 10 years, and also make the basketball tournament virtually every year with many Sweet 16 and better seasons, that's a win for them.
If the PAC was smart they would take whatever teams they have left and pull a big10 and stretch as far east as possible. Then they could play more games during prime hours and would still have the late night games too that would get more exposure as there would be fewer due to games happening earlier in the day.
They can realize this, and yet still recognize that football is the revenue / exposure catalyst…and strive to get the best football programs possible with their new members. Both things can be true. And there are certainly worse fates than setting yourself up to be the 3rd best football conference after all the realignment dust settles - especially with a 12 team CFP on the way.
And they really aren’t that far away from the B1G in football. Take Ohio State away, and the rest of the league is pretty mediocre. Oklahoma State would be a Top 2-3 team in the B1G many years. TCU would have been the same (if not the best team) last year. Baylor’s had a couple of times that they’ve just missed the CFP. West Virginia / Houston / UCF / Kansas State / Texas Tech / BYU are all comparable to your Purdue, IU, Minnesota, Nebraska, Maryland, etc.
I think this is giving the Big 12 leadership way too much credit. They were on the brink of complete annihilation as a conference after the OU / UT departures. So, they haphazardly added 4 schools that nobody wanted in order to salvage a TV deal, and thus their intermediate future. 2 of the 4 have no real basketball history to speak of. The other 2 (Houston and Cincy) have a little bit of history, but no national titles, and are nowhere close to a Duke / UNC / Kansas, etc. Then after the fact, it’s “hey, we added a couple of Top 30ish college basketball schools….we’re basketball conference now!”. It’s dumb.
Make no mistake, it’s a win for the Big 12 to add Arizona regardless. But I think its a bigger win to get ASU, or to just get both of them. The question is if its a win for either school to go to the Big 12. I think at least one and probably both will have better options.
Possibly true, but misleading. ASU doesn’t currently draw as well as they did 10-15 years ago because they had to demolish the upper decks of Sun Devil Stadium due to an engineering snafu with the concrete. They were regularly drawing the mid-60k range 20+ years ago when they were good, and at that time DWS only held around 50k. The TV market is also far superior, and because of that alone its very naive to think the other 15 SEC schools wouldn’t trade MSU for ASU yesterday if it could be done.
Totally untrue….its a massive boost to the next TV deal, per school. Would have never happened if it wasn’t. But even it were true, Texas “not moving the needle” would only be due to A&M already being members. There are no AZ schools in the current SEC, so its not a valid comparison since its a brand new market.
Disagree in principle here. I think the SEC would like very much to break into NC and VA, but obviously won’t want all the ACC schools from those states. Ideally, you take UNC and UVA, but do you really lose much with NC State and Va Tech - especially football-wise? Is it worth taking the Duke / UNC package (if they decide to stick together) in order to pass over NC State? I don’t think so. With the Virginia schools specifically, I can see the SEC being more than fine with either one. Certainly wouldn’t call it a failure….provided that the SEC gets its top targets first (FSU or Miami, Clemson?).
I do agree with the Arizona schools being comparable to the NC / VA schools, but the only thing keeping them from being far more desirable is that pesky state of New Mexico keeping them from being a contiguous addition. Still think they are just close enough to still be considered by the SEC, and we already know the Big 10 DGAF about cross country plane rides.
So basically, Texas screwed everything up. We had a bunch of nice regional conferences until they started acting a fool and kicking over dominoes. Now we are in a constant realignment shuffle. They are gonna be a joy in the SEC. Who is gonna be the first team to leave the new SEC? I’m guessing A&M
Hate to tell you, but this is a fact. ESPN is only increasing the contract pro-rata for adding Texas and Oklahoma. Each school gets the same payout as before, although we will pick up a bit more SECN revenue by converting the Oklahoma subscribers to in-state, which pays a higher rate than out of state. This is a big part of the reason the SEC is staying at 8 games for now. They need the leverage of that potential 9th game to get more money out of a very reluctant ESPN.
If the SEC can't get UNC and Virginia, it's a failure. We'll certainly take NC State and VA Tech if we fail. But it would mean the Big 10 kicked our asses in those states.
I had free Apple for a year thanks to getting a iPhone a couple years ago.
I wound up canceling with maybe three months to go.
It is a fact until 2025 (or maybe 2026-2027ish, worst case) when the 9-game schedule is inevitably added, and the SEC then has all the leverage in negotiations and will then use the full extent of that leverage to get themselves in a better spot. That’s why I said “the next TV deal”. Everyone knows 9 games and more money is happening, or else these additions would have never been approved.
The other part of staying at 8 for only the next 2 years is that the SEC doesn’t yet know if its done adding teams in the near future. So, it would be kind of waste of time to go to 9 now before all the realignment plays out, build a 9-game schedule rotation around a 16-team SEC, then have to do it all over again in a year or 2 with an 18-team or 20-team SEC. They don’t want to blow their wad early on that and lose the ESPN negotiating leverage there, either.
I don’t see how you can make this statement as an absolute truth without knowing how any number of variables play out. For example, say UVa and Va Tech form a package deal pact. Is any league taking both? UNC-Duke, same question. Then what if UNC-Duke-NC State form a 3-way pact. Then what? NC-State and Wake Forest? What if FSU-Miami form a pact?
There’s simply way too much up in the air to call anything a success or failure at this phase.
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