If conference realignment was a reality show.

[Dawgg]

It is a fact until 2025 (or maybe 2026-2027ish, worst case) when the 9-game schedule is inevitably added, and the SEC then has all the leverage in negotiations and will then use the full extent of that leverage to get themselves in a better spot. That’s why I said “the next TV deal”. Everyone knows 9 games and more money is happening, or else these additions would have never been approved.

The other part of staying at 8 for only the next 2 years is that the SEC doesn’t yet know if its done adding teams in the near future. So, it would be kind of waste of time to go to 9 now before all the realignment plays out, build a 9-game schedule rotation around a 16-team SEC, then have to do it all over again in a year or 2 with an 18-team or 20-team SEC. They don’t want to blow their wad early on that and lose the ESPN negotiating leverage there, either.



I don’t see how you can make this statement as an absolute truth without knowing how any number of variables play out. For example, say UVa and Va Tech form a package deal pact. Is any league taking both? UNC-Duke, same question. Then what if UNC-Duke-NC State form a 3-way pact. Then what? NC-State and Wake Forest? What if FSU-Miami form a pact?

There’s simply way too much up in the air to call anything a success or failure at this phase.

I'm not sure what your metrics are, but on one hand, you're acting like ASU is a clear slam dunk get over Arizona and should be a shoo-in for the Big Ten and the SEC, but on the other hand, you're acting like there's no daylight between UVA/UNC and NC State/VaTech.

What are you basing this on?

 

[Perd Hapley]

I'm not sure what your metrics are, but on one hand, you're acting like ASU is a clear slam dunk get over Arizona and should be a shoo-in for the Big Ten and the SEC, but on the other hand, you're acting like there's no daylight between UVA/UNC and NC State/VaTech.

What are you basing this on?

Good question.

In a vacuum, I think the following.

ASU > Arizona, not by a huge amount, but they are a bigger brand, bigger alumni footprint, with better football. Both are good, and I wouldn’t call either one a hard “no” for any conference looking to expand. They would both be nice “number evening” additions to the B1G or SEC.

I think UNC > Duke and NC State, by a bigger amount than ASU > AZ when considering things like brand awareness, football history, and national following. Throw in an elite basketball history for UNC and thats the icing on the cake. I think both the SEC and B1G would agree UNC is their #1 here, but I think the #2/#3 order would be different. I think the SEC would rank NC State #2 and not have very much interest in Duke, and I think the B1G would be the opposite. Don’t think anyone cares about Wake.

I think UVa > Va Tech. I think both the Big 10 and SEC would rather have UVA, but they again view them differently. The gap between UVA and Va Tech is likely a chasm in the eyes of the B1G, but really not so huge in the eyes of the SEC. UVA has more money, historical prestige (oldest university in America), and academic prestige, but Va Tech has better football. Those first 3 things are what the B1G covets. 4th thing is what matters most to the SEC.

Overall, I think the SEC’s master plan is get at least 2 of 3 between FSU, Miami, and Clemson, and then go from there. Maybe even all 3. But the most likely outcome is FSU and Clemson here, I think. That’s Priority #1. They do that, and they either hold a majority or entirety of Florida and Texas (#2 and #3 most populated states and probably the best two football talent states). They keep their footprint somewhat regional, and they add 2 or 3 huge brands of the past 30-40 years in college football.

Priority 2 for the SEC would be NC / VA. I think how this plays out depends a lot on what happens with Priority 1. They get 2 of 3 to go to 18, they likely just want one from NC and one from VA. If they get any combo of one each between UNC / NC State and UVA / Va Tech, I think they are probably fine with that. Key point here is that a big success in Priority 1 (say they get all 3 of FSU, Miami, and Clemson) likely makes Priority 2 more difficult to navigate. They’d be at 19 after the first additions, and so then if you get one from each state you are at 21. A similar result could happen if they only get 2 of the top priority schools, and then you get some pairing up happening where they’d have to take UVA / Va Tech together or Duke / UNC together or something. That would put them at 21 also if they had to add 3 total from NC / VA. But ultimately, UNC and UVA will get to pick their suitors, more than likely. There’s no winners or losers, they’ll be wanted by both of the big boys….just depends on what they want. Everyone else beyond those 5 schools on the East coast have to kind of let the dominoes fall.

And that’s where the Arizona schools come in. SEC may want to fill out the roster with an Arizona State or Arizona, depending on availability. Evens them up if they get stuck on an odd number like 19 or 21, and then you put a hard cap there. Let the B1G get the rest of the West Coast, maybe come down and get Georgia Tech or Wake Forest or the other Arizona school or whatever. Who cares.

For the B1G, I don’t know what their next step is. They are kind of outflanking their footprint with the USC / UCLA thing and its hard to know if they want to lock down the rest of the west coast, or start moving South. But in any case, they’re probably talking to multiple schools. Should be interesting.

 

[patdog]

Good question.

In a vacuum, I think the following.

ASU > Arizona, not by a huge amount, but they are a bigger brand, bigger alumni footprint, with better football. Both are good, and I wouldn’t call either one a hard “no” for any conference looking to expand. They would both be nice “number evening” additions to the B1G or SEC.

I think UNC > Duke and NC State, by a bigger amount than ASU > AZ when considering things like brand awareness, football history, and national following. Throw in an elite basketball history for UNC and thats the icing on the cake. I think both the SEC and B1G would agree UNC is their #1 here, but I think the #2/#3 order would be different. I think the SEC would rank NC State #2 and not have very much interest in Duke, and I think the B1G would be the opposite. Don’t think anyone cares about Wake.

I think UVa > Va Tech. I think both the Big 10 and SEC would rather have UVA, but they again view them differently. The gap between UVA and Va Tech is likely a chasm in the eyes of the B1G, but really not so huge in the eyes of the SEC. UVA has more money, historical prestige (oldest university in America), and academic prestige, but Va Tech has better football. Those first 3 things are what the B1G covets. 4th thing is what matters most to the SEC.

Overall, I think the SEC’s master plan is get at least 2 of 3 between FSU, Miami, and Clemson, and then go from there. Maybe even all 3. But the most likely outcome is FSU and Clemson here, I think. That’s Priority #1. They do that, and they either hold a majority or entirety of Florida and Texas (#2 and #3 most populated states and probably the best two football talent states). They keep their footprint somewhat regional, and they add 2 or 3 huge brands of the past 30-40 years in college football.

Priority 2 for the SEC would be NC / VA. I think how this plays out depends a lot on what happens with Priority 1. They get 2 of 3 to go to 18, they likely just want one from NC and one from VA. If they get any combo of one each between UNC / NC State and UVA / Va Tech, I think they are probably fine with that. Key point here is that a big success in Priority 1 (say they get all 3 of FSU, Miami, and Clemson) likely makes Priority 2 more difficult to navigate. They’d be at 19 after the first additions, and so then if you get one from each state you are at 21. A similar result could happen if they only get 2 of the top priority schools, and then you get some pairing up happening where they’d have to take UVA / Va Tech together or Duke / UNC together or something. That would put them at 21 also if they had to add 3 total from NC / VA. But ultimately, UNC and UVA will get to pick their suitors, more than likely. There’s no winners or losers, they’ll be wanted by both of the big boys….just depends on what they want. Everyone else beyond those 5 schools on the East coast have to kind of let the dominoes fall.

And that’s where the Arizona schools come in. SEC may want to fill out the roster with an Arizona State or Arizona, depending on availability. Evens them up if they get stuck on an odd number like 19 or 21, and then you put a hard cap there. Let the B1G get the rest of the West Coast, maybe come down and get Georgia Tech or Wake Forest or the other Arizona school or whatever. Who cares.

For the B1G, I don’t know what their next step is. They are kind of outflanking their footprint with the USC / UCLA thing and its hard to know if they want to lock down the rest of the west coast, or start moving South. But in any case, they’re probably talking to multiple schools. Should be interesting.

I think the SEC wants to eventually add FSU, Clemson, North Carolina and either UVA or VA Tech. I think they'd take NC State if they can't get UNC or Miami if they can't get FSU. But they really don't want any of this to happen for at least another 5-7 years.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I think the SEC wants to eventually add FSU, Clemson, North Carolina and either UVA or VA Tech. I think they'd take NC State if they can't get UNC or Miami if they can't get FSU. But they really don't want any of this to happen for at least another 5-7 years.

You’re certainly right in that the SEC has a lot more skin in the game tied to the fate of the ACC than the B1G does. So, the cleaner it is, the better for that break up. But, I’m not sure another 5-7 years is going to really solve anything as far as that grant of rights is concerned. You’re still talking about a $150 million buyout, even then.

To me, ACC members voting to dissolve the conference is going to inevitably happen. There are too many members that can get a better deal literally anywhere else at this point. The only reason why it hasn’t happened already is because of uncertainty regarding what happens next, legally. In theory, the conference no longer exists, and therefore the rights of the schools (which were controlled and distributed by the ACC as a collective) would most likely return to the schools. But then ESPN wouldn’t be happy, might try and sue. But sue who? The conference that no longer exists, the individual schools, etc? So there might be a court order of some sort to keep things static until legal proceedings can play out. But ultimately, no court can just arbitrarily make a collegiate athletic conference stay together, so the only thing they can decide is what ESPN would be owed, if anything.

For the entire ACC, the sooner that “static” period starts (if its actually necessary), the better. Its going to be ugly no matter when it happens between now and 2035, might as well go ahead and rip off the Band Aid. I think it comes down to whenever 8 schools can feel comfortable enough about their future prospects in the SEC, B1G, or Big 12 that it will happen.