Interesting article from Ross Dellenger about rev-share and roster allocation

Seinfeld

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It's a nice dream, but this feels like someone trying to argue that your local hardware store is going to outlive Home Depot because it doesn't have the massive overhead to worry about. I mean, I guess it's possible, but probably not very likely. The big spenders are going to find a way to outspend the rest
 

thatsbaseball

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It's a nice dream, but this feels like someone trying to argue that your local hardware store is going to outlive Home Depot because it doesn't have the massive overhead to worry about. I mean, I guess it's possible, but probably not very likely. The big spenders are going to find a way to outspend the rest
At schools like State, if we're going to compete, we're going to have to focus on coaching more than the NIL meat market IMO. There will be some damn good coaches who would rather work at the "local hardware store" than the Home Depot. Of course hiring and retaining good coaches starts from the top of the school's administration and works it's way down through the athletic department .
 

patdog

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It's a nice dream, but this feels like someone trying to argue that your local hardware store is going to outlive Home Depot because it doesn't have the massive overhead to worry about. I mean, I guess it's possible, but probably not very likely. The big spenders are going to find a way to outspend the rest
Yeah. They're not going to be able to outspend SEC or Big 10 schools. And that's 22 of the 68 bids and 11 of the Sweet 16 teams this year.
 

Maroon13

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Well that's certainly an interesting article. Because it's the opposite of all the media talk this week. Which is the death of the mid majors in the ncaa.

Maybe the big $ conferences can make up the difference with NIL deals but it is a refreshing angle..... to me at least. I'd enjoy these smaller east coast teams offering big salaries to potentially steal players from UK, UT, UF and etc.

You would think at some point, Big Donor at any sec school that just dropped $8m on a QB would push back on another ask of $5-6m for a basketball center.
 

OG Goat Holder

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Though he declined to comment on his distribution plan, UConn athletic director David Benedict believes that “at minimum” schools need $5 million for a men’s roster, $1 million to $2 million for a women’s roster and in the “neighborhood of $5 million” for a Group of Six football roster. Such figures, he believes, will put those teams near the top of their respective sports in the revenue-share era.
Uhhh.....I know of one easy place to cut "$1 million to $2 million"....
 

pseudonym

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I subscribe to the theory that rev share will be bad for mid-majors but will somewhat level the playing field among Big Ten and SEC schools.

For example, the best estimates are that Texas spent $22.3 million on its 2024 football team while State spent $6.5 million (3.4 multiple).

Under rev share, it is estimated that SEC schools will allocate $15 million of revenue to football rosters, with at least some schools paying players with NIL money on top of that. For Texas to spend 3.4 times State in this world, they would have to spend over $50 million on their roster, most of that coming from NIL on top of rev share. They will spend more than State but not that much more.

Just throwing out numbers:
  • 2024:
    • Texas: $22.3 million NIL
    • State: $6.5 million NIL
    • gap: $15.8 million; 3.4x
  • rev share:
    • Texas: $15 million rev share; $10 million NIL ($25 million total)
    • State: $15 million rev share; $0 NIL ($15 million total)
    • gap: $10 million; 1.7x
 
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OG Goat Holder

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I subscribe to the theory that rev share will be bad for mid-majors but will somewhat level the playing field among Big Ten and SEC schools.

For example, the best estimates are that Texas spent $22.3 million on its 2024 football team while State spent $6.5 million (3.4 times).

Under rev share, it is estimated that SEC schools will allocate $15 million of revenue to football rosters, with at least some schools paying players with NIL money on top of that. For Texas to spend 3.4 times State in this world, they would have to spend over $50 million on their roster, most of that coming from NIL on top of rev share. They will spend more than State but not that much more.

Just throwing out numbers:
  • 2024:
    • Texas: $22.3 million NIL
    • State: $6.5 million NIL
    • gap: $15.8 million; 3.4x
  • rev share:
    • Texas: $15 million rev share; $10 million NIL ($25 million total)
    • State: $15 million rev share; $0 NIL ($15 million total)
    • gap: $10 million; 1.7x
Well, mid-majors don't HAVE to pay all that rev share, I don't think. And they'll still get the next step down of talent. So I don't see much changing there, as long as they can afford the football team and afford to give a little bit to players.
 

8dog

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Jim Boeheim gets it. Villanova and others will outspend the big schools….only if the clearinghouse holds up. Not enough is being made of that.
 
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pseudonym

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Well, mid-majors don't HAVE to pay all that rev share, I don't think. And they'll still get the next step down of talent. So I don't see much changing there, as long as they can afford the football team and afford to give a little bit to players.
I think it will be bad for mid-majors and good for schools like State because we benefit from being in the SEC. Mid-majors don't have that revenue source.

That is why being in the SEC or Big Ten is so important right now.
 
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OG Goat Holder

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I think it will be bad for mid-majors and good for schools like State because we benefit from being in the SEC. Mid-majors don't have that revenue source.

That is why being in the SEC or Big Ten is so important right now.
That's my point, they don't have the revenue source, but they also don't have the expense. Their competition will be each other, for the next tier of players......which is the same as it is right now. There will still be tons of players sign up to play G5 if it's their best option. You have the dream of ultimately making it to G5 and it's better than FCS, D2, D3, NAIA, etc.

Actually everything is better than D3. NAIA gives more scholarships than they do.
 

POTUS

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It's got to be a mix of NIL meat-market and coaching, but coaching must take priority. I did not have a good feeling about our tourney game because Scott Drew was over there on the other side. Talent aside, we were going to lose the coaching match-up there.
 
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DawgInThe256

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It's got to be a mix of NIL meat-market and coaching, but coaching must take priority. I did not have a good feeling about our tourney game because Scott Drew was over there on the other side. Talent aside, we were going to lose the coaching match-up there.
That's why it's important to not squander regular season opportunities. An extra win or 2 over the last 2 seasons would have avoided 1st round matchups with Izzo and Drew.
 

Maroon13

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The point of the article is, these basketball schools, don't have football to revenue share. Therefore they can give a larger % of their revenue share to basketball.

If the cap is $20 million for example. Sec schools give 15 to football and 3 to basketball and 2 to everyone else. Where as midmajor pays $15M to the basketball team and $5m to everything else.

Assuming the mid majors can pay the max of $20m. Which that is a huge assumption. We shall see if they can soon.
 

patdog

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That's why it's important to not squander regular season opportunities. An extra win or 2 over the last 2 seasons would have avoided 1st round matchups with Izzo and Drew.
Yep. We didn't lose our 1st round game last Friday. We lost it over the last month of the season.
 
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Maroon13

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Revenue share will be a net zero for State as far as gaining ground on the sec. Because these sec schools will pay the same revenue share salary but try to outbid each other for players through NIL.

I bet if Texas is willing to spend $20million in NIL today. They will do it again next year in addition to Revenue share.
 
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8dog

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The point of the article is, these basketball schools, don't have football to revenue share. Therefore they can give a larger % of their revenue share to basketball.

If the cap is $20 million for example. Sec schools give 15 to football and 3 to basketball and 2 to everyone else. Where as midmajor pays $15M to the basketball team and $5m to everything else.

Assuming the mid majors can pay the max of $20m. Which that is a huge assumption. We shall see if they can soon.
Yeah I don’t think people read the entire article. They literally laid out numbers and why this can happen.
 

patdog

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Yeah I don’t think people read the entire article. They literally laid out numbers and why this can happen.
Speaking of reading the whole article. This is exactly what will happen. And it will be rampant and uncontrolled.
To keep up, power conference schools may need to circumvent the new rev-share pool cap by orchestrating third-party and booster-backed name, image and likeness deals for athletes — essentially violating what the NCAA’s own attorney describes as the “central part” of the landmark House settlement agreement: prohibiting booster pay.
 

8dog

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Speaking of reading the whole article. This is exactly what will happen. And it will be rampant and uncontrolled.
Exactly. It’s why the clearinghouse is the key. If it stands that becomes a tougher way to do that.
 

Seinfeld

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None of this will be good for anyone but the schools with a LOT of money.
Correct. I mean, you can even look at a team like Memphis that hasn't done anything of significance in the postseason since Calipari, but they have been absolutely gutting teams from their own conference for each of the last 3 years because they can. They're the biggest fish in a small pond, and they've got a basketball budget that's 3-5x everyone else in the AAC, so Penny gets to pick and choose who he wants to pull from Tulsa, SMU, and Wichita St year after year
 

Perd Hapley

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I subscribe to the theory that rev share will be bad for mid-majors but will somewhat level the playing field among Big Ten and SEC schools.

For example, the best estimates are that Texas spent $22.3 million on its 2024 football team while State spent $6.5 million (3.4 multiple).

Under rev share, it is estimated that SEC schools will allocate $15 million of revenue to football rosters, with at least some schools paying players with NIL money on top of that. For Texas to spend 3.4 times State in this world, they would have to spend over $50 million on their roster, most of that coming from NIL on top of rev share. They will spend more than State but not that much more.

Just throwing out numbers:
  • 2024:
    • Texas: $22.3 million NIL
    • State: $6.5 million NIL
    • gap: $15.8 million; 3.4x
  • rev share:
    • Texas: $15 million rev share; $10 million NIL ($25 million total)
    • State: $15 million rev share; $0 NIL ($15 million total)
    • gap: $10 million; 1.7x
I think you are an idealist if you really believe this.

The NIL isn’t going anywhere. The revenue share is just getting added to the pie as a minimum baseline.
 
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Maroon13

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Yeah, good luck with that clearinghouse.
First thing I heard a player (not ours) parent say when discussing the house settlement ..... "why would the players agree to that when you can get all the nil you want now."

For the sake of the Mississippi States and college athletics as a whole... I hope the clearing house is agreed upon in the settlement.
 
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pseudonym

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I think you are an idealist if you really believe this.

The NIL isn’t going anywhere. The revenue share is just getting added to the pie as a minimum baseline.
Increasing the minimum baseline without increasing the top line by the same or more decreases the gap.

Use my 2024 numbers as a starting place. Where do you see the numbers going under rev share?
 

Perd Hapley

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Increasing the minimum baseline without increasing the top line by the same or more decreases the gap.
Depends on what your definition of “decreasing the gap” is. If you’re talking in terms of percentage, that depends. But the raw number gap is always going to keep increasing between the haves and have nots. So I’d disagree that the gap is just “decreasing”.

Use my 2024 numbers as a starting place. Where do you see the numbers going under rev share?

Well, the first thing that needs to be cleared up is that you somehow think that $22 million in Texas’ NIL is getting cut down to $10 million under revenue share. It isn’t. It’s only going to keep going up. What mechanism is in place to take that private money off the table? The alleged “NIL clearinghouse” is a joke that is already illegal in multiple states before it even gets off the ground. It’s meaningless, and will just be a kangaroo court that rubber stamps everything even if it comes to fruition. The money being paid out now is obviously still going to be there, because none of it is needed for the “new money” of the rev share….that’s coming from the schools’ TV money.

That being said, you showed $22.3 million NIL for Texas in 2024. So, at the astronomical rate of NIL inflation, I’d conservatively say $25 million NIL for 2025. So, IF they only do $15 million in revenue share, that’d be $40 million. As far as I know, the schools are capped at $22 million there for revenue share. They don’t have to stop at $15 million. And as the richest athletic department in the country, I see no reason why Texas wouldn’t max out that $22 million. So, let’s put Texas at $47 million total.

For MSU, I’ll use the $15 million rev share figure of yours, and round up the NIL to $7 million. $22 million total.

Gap = $25 million
2024 Gap (with your numbers) = $15.8 million

Multiplier may go down, but the straight dollar figure of the gap still goes up over 60%.
 
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