Interesting discussion on the coming college football super league...

HuntDawg

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In that case, let's say they do it. Will fans support the team in the same way if it essentially becomes a bigger (as far as number of teams) NFL? How long will they be able to play? Will it just be 4 years? If not, you may see some guys who are good college players but not good pro players stay for 10 years, restricting opportunities for younger guys. And what stops basketball from one saying they want to do it too?

Everything about this idea just sucks. But they'll damn sure do it eventually.
Its like I think I heard Nick Saban say. There are a lot of good ideas and ways to fix things, but its difficult to be able to implement all them with the laws and stuff.

I too think it will be very difficult to simply pull away from universities. I cant see that happening anytime in the near future. I do think a super conference is coming, probably in the next 5-10 years. These large schools that are making all the money are going to get to a point where they arent going to drag along other schools, when they could just pool together and everyone divide the big pot.
 

8dog

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In that case, let's say they do it. Will fans support the team in the same way if it essentially becomes a bigger (as far as number of teams) NFL? How long will they be able to play? Will it just be 4 years? If not, you may see some guys who are good college players but not good pro players stay for 10 years, restricting opportunities for younger guys. And what stops basketball from one saying they want to do it too?

Everything about this idea just sucks. But they'll damn sure do it eventually.
The only thing that is going to turn off fans is what’s already happening and about to happen. Doesn’t matter how it’s structured- NIL and Salaries.

no one knows or cares if a kid is in class or not. And most fans who don’t follow closely wouldn’t notice a difference.
 

OG Goat Holder

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I do think a super conference is coming, probably in the next 5-10 years.
I say more like 25-30. I think the first big change 10-15 years from now will just be the SEC/B1G getting to 20 or so teams, maybe even less. It's probably about Florida State, Clemson and a few others. Basically a restructuring to a super strong SEC and B1G, tier 2 of Big 12, ACC and maybe the PAC/MWC (if they aren't folded into the Big 12), then the rest. THEN, after that solidifies for about another 10-15, the SEC/B1G will eventually break away and basically split divisions of around 60-70, depending on how many teams are in FBS at that time.
 

OG Goat Holder

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The only thing that is going to turn off fans is what’s already happening and about to happen. Doesn’t matter how it’s structured- NIL and Salaries.

no one knows or cares if a kid is in class or not. And most fans who don’t follow closely wouldn’t notice a difference.
Salaries and true professionality are where people will draw the line, I believe. They'll lose people to the NFL at that point.

NIL is basically what we've been doing since the 70s. Nobody cares about that.
 

8dog

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Salaries and true professionality are where people will draw the line, I believe. They'll lose people to the NFL at that point.

NIL is basically what we've been doing since the 70s. Nobody cares about that.
Maybe but there is no difference between NIL and salaries at this point. Plus everyone keeps saying they have had enough with NIL but the game is wildly popular. You also have to remember there are boat loads of fans that don’t follow all this. They just show up to cheer for their team So nothing changes for them.
 

HuntDawg

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I say more like 25-30. I think the first big change 10-15 years from now will just be the SEC/B1G getting to 20 or so teams, maybe even less. It's probably about Florida State, Clemson and a few others. Basically a restructuring to a super strong SEC and B1G, tier 2 of Big 12, ACC and maybe the PAC/MWC (if they aren't folded into the Big 12), then the rest. THEN, after that solidifies for about another 10-15, the SEC/B1G will eventually break away and basically split divisions of around 60-70, depending on how many teams are in FBS at that time.

The falling of the Pac-12 tells me that things are already in place. Its just a matter of hitting the GO button. As quick as the NIL moved thru college sports, the forming of a super conference will happen that quick IMO.

the sec already has 16 teams, it wont take them 25-30 years to get 4 more.
 

OG Goat Holder

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Maybe but there is no difference between NIL and salaries at this point. Plus everyone keeps saying they have had enough with NIL but the game is wildly popular. You also have to remember there are boat loads of fans that don’t follow all this. They just show up to cheer for their team So nothing changes for them.
Man I just disagree, I think that would be a huge change. At least we can still loosely call it amateur.
 

OG Goat Holder

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The falling of the Pac-12 tells me that things are already in place. Its just a matter of hitting the GO button. As quick as the NIL moved thru college sports, the forming of a super conference will happen that quick IMO.
See I think if not for COVID, we still wouldn't have NIL. I think the baby boomer leaders just caved to the pressure that came from the pent up frustration during that time. I still say they didn't have to do that or the portal - they just wanted people off their back.

the sec already has 16 teams, it wont take them 25-30 years to get 4 more.
No I'm saying 20 in 10-15 years, once the ACC GoRs is up. 25-30 years from now, the super league, or the Super 2 league.

But along those lines, the SEC had 10 teams for 60 years, then once expansion/TV started, they had 12 teams for 20 years, and 14 for 11 years. So seems about the right pace to me. It'll probably speed up from history, but adding 4 teams over the next 10-15 years is pretty fast, considering history.
 

patdog

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The falling of the Pac-12 tells me that things are already in place. Its just a matter of hitting the GO button. As quick as the NIL moved thru college sports, the forming of a super conference will happen that quick IMO.

the sec already has 16 teams, it wont take them 25-30 years to get 4 more.
The big problem, and it's a lot bigger than people want to admit, is the ACC grant of rights. People keep saying the schools will find a way out of it, but that's just not happening. The lawyers who wrote that were very good. There's just no easy way out without ESPN offering the rest of the schools some major compensation. And ESPN has zero motivation to do that because they've got FSU, Clemson and UNC locked up on a long-term contract at a discounted price. Until that GOR gets within a few years of its expiration, not much is going to happen with the SEC and Big 10.
 

HuntDawg

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See I think if not for COVID, we still wouldn't have NIL. I think the baby boomer leaders just caved to the pressure that came from the pent up frustration during that time. I still say they didn't have to do that or the portal - they just wanted people off their back.


No I'm saying 20 in 10-15 years, once the ACC GoRs is up. 25-30 years from now, the super league, or the Super 2 league.

But along those lines, the SEC had 12 teams for 20 years, and 14 for 11 years. So seems about the right pace to me.

True... but the SEC grew at that pace before conferences like the Pac-12 started to de-ban. The foot is on the accelerator now.
 

HuntDawg

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The big problem, and it's a lot bigger than people want to admit, is the ACC grant of rights. People keep saying the schools will find a way out of it, but that's just not happening. The lawyers who wrote that were very good. There's just no easy way out without ESPN offering the rest of the schools some major compensation. And ESPN has zero motivation to do that because they've got FSU, Clemson and UNC locked up on a long-term contract at a discounted price. Until that GOR gets within a few years of its expiration, not much is going to happen with the SEC and Big 10.

Agree. why i think i heard Saban say that everyone has great ideas to fix it. But its the legal parts of it that are difficult to juggle.
 
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travis.sixpack

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Its like I think I heard Nick Saban say. There are a lot of good ideas and ways to fix things, but its difficult to be able to implement all them with the laws and stuff.

I too think it will be very difficult to simply pull away from universities. I cant see that happening anytime in the near future. I do think a super conference is coming, probably in the next 5-10 years. These large schools that are making all the money are going to get to a point where they arent going to drag along other schools, when they could just pool together and everyone divide the big pot.
I've been thinking the Blue Bloods would just break away from their respective conferences and form a 32-36 team super conference and leave out the lower-tier P4 schools. But in that scenario someone, like say Washington or Tennessee, is going to become the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars going 2-10 every season.

Could they even schedule non-Super-League opponents if they're separate from the NCAA? Would the TV networks, who presumably would the main drivers of a new super league, want teams to play teams from "lesser" leagues. If you're going to go through the trouble of entirely blowing up major college football, wouldn't you want an all-Super League schedule?

Expanding the top two leagues inside of what becomes of the NCAA might be the path of least resistance.
 

patdog

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I've been thinking the Blue Bloods would just break away from their respective conferences and form a 32-36 team super conference and leave out the lower-tier P4 schools. But in that scenario someone, like say Washington or Tennessee, is going to become the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars going 2-10 every season.

Could they even schedule non-Super-League opponents if they're separate from the NCAA? Would the TV networks, who presumably would the main drivers of a new super league, want teams to play teams from "lesser" leagues. If you're going to go through the trouble of entirely blowing up major college football, wouldn't you want an all-Super League schedule?

Expanding the top two leagues inside of what becomes of the NCAA might be the path of least resistance.
Whatever happens, it won't be separate from the NCAA. We may see a 3rd Div. I subdivision formed. Or we may just see Big 10 and SEC continue to gobble up the other elite programs, with the current NCAA structure largely unchanged. New 14-teams playoff is looking like it will have 3 auto bids for SEC and Big 10, 2 for ACC and Big 12, and 1 for highest ranked G5 champion, plus 3 at-large bids. That may get tweaked to 4 auto bids for SEC/Big 10 and 1 for ACC and Big 12 after the next round of P2 raiding when the ACC GOR starts to run out.
 
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OG Goat Holder

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Whatever happens, it won't be separate from the NCAA. We may see a 3rd Div. I subdivision formed. Or we may just see Big 10 and SEC continue to gobble up the other elite programs, with the current NCAA structure largely unchanged. New 14-teams playoff is looking like it will have 3 auto bids for SEC and Big 10, 2 for ACC and Big 12, and 1 for highest ranked G5 champion, plus 3 at-large bids. That may get tweaked to 4 auto bids for SEC/Big 10 and 1 for ACC and Big 12 after the next round of P2 raiding when the ACC GOR starts to run out.
Agree. The ability of FSU and others to break the GoRs, and the demise of the NCAA, has been GREATLY overexaggerated.
 
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HuntDawg

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Agree. The ability of FSU and others to break the GoRs, and the demise of the NCAA, has been GREATLY overexaggerated.

I'm not sure. I mean i don know how exaggerated it is. But i will say the longer this NIL deal goes without it getting figured out.. the more likely the demise of the NCAA occurs.

Im sure there are a lot of backroom arguments over how it should be handled, and could very well see a few of the more powerful people taking their ball and playing by the rules they see fit.
 

patdog

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I'm not sure. I mean i don know how exaggerated it is. But i will say the longer this NIL deal goes without it getting figured out.. the more likely the demise of the NCAA occurs.

Im sure there are a lot of backroom arguments over how it should be handled, and could very well see a few of the more powerful people taking their ball and playing by the rules they see fit.
If one of the ACC schools decides to take their ball and play by the rules they see fit, they won't be getting any media revenue for a decade. They're gonna sit right where they are until that GOR gets close enough to expiration for them to afford it.
 

HuntDawg

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If one of the ACC schools decides to take their ball and play by the rules they see fit, they won't be getting any media revenue for a decade. They're gonna sit right where they are until that GOR gets close enough to expiration for them to afford it.
But if they join a group of other schools that all divide their piece of the pie, donated, whatever adjective you want to use.. to help said ACC school survive that spell. The it becomes more reasonable. They are ways to make up for said revenue, especially if the super conference booms out money.

Again I get the premise. Not saying you arent right. I just think there are creative ways around it.. if it actually came to that.
 

patdog

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But if they join a group of other schools that all divide their piece of the pie, donated, whatever adjective you want to use.. to help said ACC school survive that spell. The it becomes more reasonable. They are ways to make up for said revenue, especially if the super conference booms out money.

Again I get the premise. Not saying you arent right. I just think there are creative ways around it.. if it actually came to that.
There aren't creative ways around it. There just aren't. FSU has been trying to get out of this for 3 years and they've gotten nowhere. The super conferences won't boom out $1 more with FSU than they will without them. FSU literally has no media rights to sell. Those belong to the ACC. Let's say FSU moves to the SEC. Their home game vs Florida will NOT be shown on the SEC's TV contracts. It belongs to the ACC and will be shown on that TV contract. I don't see the SEC or Big 10 taking a pay cut for a decade to bring them in.
 

OG Goat Holder

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There aren't creative ways around it. There just aren't. FSU has been trying to get out of this for 3 years and they've gotten nowhere. The super conferences won't boom out $1 more with FSU than they will without them. FSU literally has no media rights to sell. Those belong to the ACC. Let's say FSU moves to the SEC. Their home game vs Florida will NOT be shown on the SEC's TV contracts. It belongs to the ACC and will be shown on that TV contract. I don't see the SEC or Big 10 taking a pay cut for a decade to bring them in.
@Out of Bounds said on the radio/pod that FSU is raising money to the tune of 200M. That’s a hell of a check to write, and not even sure that’s a real option?
 

Ranchdawg

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Professional College teams? Pro league College teams
This may happen sooner than we think and with the way things are going I've developed a "whatever" attitude. College football is already half way destroyed why not take it to the max.
 
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Perd Hapley

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I don't know that they'll do this for the 48 team (or 60, whatever it ends up being) super league. Remember, SMU did that to get into the ACC, not SEC/B1G. Unequal distribution has always been the downfall of conferences, and Sankey and them know that.

We will, I agree, have to take our ass17ings and stay quiet.
Unequal revenue sharing has only led to the downfall of one conference - the old SWC. Its already in place in the B1G, Big 12, and ACC with new members taking drastically reduced shares for a long time. The SEC is the only league that doesn’t have it in play….yet.

Its also only been divisive when it has been one or two teams at the top getting half the revenue with the remaining members splitting the rest into piddly small shares. If the big boys of the SEC proposed a change to the revenue sharing to where the league hires a 3rd party firm to evaluate TV market share, and award the Top 12 teams in terms of TV marketability a share of $60 million per school starting in 2025, and the remaining 4 schools only $32.5 million per year….guess what? It will pass with flying colors….because it only needs 11 votes, and everyone knows the bottom 4, by far, would be MSU, Ole Miss, Mizzou, and Vandy. The other 12 schools would absolutely railroad all of us. And that’s the actual end game no one seems to consider. If you make things so miserable for the have-nots that they have no choice but to leave on their own, you avoid any backlash of voting out charter members, etc., AND you get all their TV shares back in the hands of the big boys.

That’s how quickly the money can dry up. And whenever it does, so does every possible benefit we get from SEC membership….other than just pure nostalgia of those who would still try and pretend that we’re real members of the conference under such a one-sided arrangement.
 
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Perd Hapley

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The difference is State already has a seat at the table along with UK, Vandy, Ark, Ole Miss and So Car. Those other schools don’t and have no vote. They’re taking a reduced share or no share with the promise of an equal share eventually.

State has only 1 of 16 seats at the table. In a few months in Destin, Texas and Oklahoma (neither of whom has ever played an SEC game as a member) will have the same voting rights we do to any changes to bylaws. The SEC requires a 2/3rds vote for any changes to bylaws (including revenue sharing). That’s 11 schools. Before this year, there were only 10 schools in the top 20 of overall revenue / marketability….with the other 4 (State, Mizzou, OM, Vandy) all being significantly lower in the 30’s. So in a 14 team SEC, the “little 4” had enough power to block any legislation that was harmful to their interests. But now, guess what? 16 teams, 12 with huge budgets and marketability. The “little 4” is now powerless to stop anything. Soooo….you think the other 12 schools are going to keep up the communist revenue sharing regime out of the goodness of their hearts?

And good luck getting the smaller SEC schools to go along with giving a portion of their share to new comers.
You’re right. But they wouldn’t have to go along with it. They only need 11 votes. See above.

Maybe after 10 years or so, the big boys will want a bigger share in a 24 team league, but remember: the Cleveland Browns get the same TV cut as the Dallas Cowboys. The big boys will always be richer than the small schools regardless of the portion and everyone remembers it was Texas greed that blew up the Big 12.

First off, the Big 12 is as strong as it ever was….without Texas.

Secondly, nobody’s suggesting a Texas/Big 12 revenue plan. Too many big dogs in the SEC.

Realistically….you have a Big 7 of Alabama, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, Florida, Georgia, and Oklahoma. That’s 7 of the top 12-13 most marketable TV products in the country for college football….all of which could claim they deserve the biggest share in an uneven share proposal. Then a slight tier down you have 2 more teams - Tennessee and Auburn, who are in the Top 16-17 as well. Then a tier down from them you have Ark / SC / Kentucky who are all Top 22-23 at worst, have statewide monopolies on SEC viewership, and bring a lot to the table as well (particularly UK with basketball). You’d see the Top 9 schools craft legislation that is favorable for schools 10-12 (Ark / USC / Kentucky) as a means to get their votes and support for uneven sharing. And they’d only need 2 of the 3 on board.

If they all get way richer on the backs of the bottom 4 getting poorer, thats a whole different ball of wax than Texas and OU getting rich at the expense of 10 other schools. Hide and watch.
 
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travis.sixpack

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Realistically….you have a Big 7 of Alabama, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU, Florida, Georgia, and Oklahoma. That’s 7 of the top 12-13 most marketable TV products in the country for college football….all of which could claim they deserve the biggest share in an uneven share proposal. Then a slight tier down you have 2 more teams - Tennessee and Auburn, who are in the Top 16-17 as well. Then a tier down from them you have Ark / SC / Kentucky who are all Top 22-23 at worst, have statewide monopolies on SEC viewership, and bring a lot to the table as well (particularly UK with basketball). You’d see the Top 9 schools craft legislation that is favorable for schools 10-12 (Ark / USC / Kentucky) as a means to get their votes and support for uneven sharing. And they’d only need 2 of the 3 on board.

If they all get way richer on the backs of the bottom 4 getting poorer, thats a whole different ball of wax than Texas and OU getting rich at the expense of 10 other schools. Hide and watch.
I suppose it possible, but I'd like to see how you get Ark/USC/UK to support uneven revenue sharing. Also, it seems like crippling the schools with the smallest budgets is a good way to lower the overall value of the entire league and create enmity. No American major professional sport league has unequal revenue distribution, and the pro model seems to be the way Sanky wants to move toward.

I have a hard time believing schools that already have enormous budgets (not named Texas) will scheme to bleed more more money out of their league partners. Schools are leaving their previous conferences to join the richer and more stable SEC/BigTen. The prestige of these conferences and TV contracts they will create will make everyone involved richer.

As far as other conferences' unequal distributions, as far as I understand it, this is just a temporary "entrance fee." Washington and Oregon will be full members when the BigTen's current TV contract is up. Same goes for SMU, Stanford and Cal in the ACC. While I couldn't find the payouts for the Pac12 schools that are joining the Big12, UCF, Houston, Cincy and BYU will be receiving full shares next year. The SEC was the one league that was able to expand without an entrance fee.
 
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patdog

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Unequal revenue sharing has only led to the downfall of one conference - the old SWC. Its already in place in the B1G, Big 12, and ACC with new members taking drastically reduced shares for a long time. The SEC is the only league that doesn’t have it in play….yet.
It's certainly played a pretty big part in the SEC raiding the Big 12 for A&M and Missouri. It's still untried in the Big 10 and ACC, although it's starting now.
 
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BoDawg.sixpack

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There has to be some doormats in the conference. UGA and Bama don't want to play a top 25 team every week. That's why Mississippi State will be a part of whatever super conference is on the horizon.
 

Perd Hapley

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I suppose it possible, but I'd like to see how you get Ark/USC/UK to support uneven revenue sharing.
Because they’d get the same cut as the big boys….in exchange for their votes. And I think you greatly underestimate their marketing appeal. UK is pretty much a Top 15 revenue producer every year….a lot due to basketball but they also make more from football than MSU. Arkansas is consistently Top 20 and sometimes Top 15. USC bounces around from 15 ~ 25. They’re a little more up and down.

Also, it seems like crippling the schools with the smallest budgets is a good way to lower the overall value of the entire league and create enmity.
I don’t think it lowers the value of anything if 4 general bottom feeder schools (save for OM’s recent run, and Mizzou to a lesser extent) simply remain bottom feeders. But besides, who said the end game is to lower their value? They may eventually just want those teams gone, as that creates fewer pie slices for teams that are drawing more revenue than they are producing. The most palatable way to do that is death by 1000 financial cuts.

No American major professional sport league has unequal revenue distribution,
Uhh….MLB? Distribution from TV might be the same, but each team keeps its own money from licensing and ticket sales, which is where the real money is there. And you have very different salary caps from different franchises.

I have a hard time believing schools that already have enormous budgets (not named Texas) will scheme to bleed more more money out of their league partners.
I don’t know how much human or economic history you follow, but the number of case studies of enormously rich and powerful people or entities looking at their stack and saying “yep, I’m good with just this” is pretty much zero.

Schools are leaving their previous conferences to join the richer and more stable SEC/BigTen. The prestige of these conferences and TV contracts they will create will make everyone involved richer.
They’ll make everyone richer up to a certain point….but then its diminishing returns. That’s the problem for the little guys. North Carolina is a more desirable school for the SEC than at least 5-6 schools that are already here. Given the chance, a pragmatic SEC would trade MSU, OM, Mizzou, Ark, USC, or Vandy for them at the drop of a hat. But, to simply add them, they alone have to be worth $55 million or so per year added to the ESPN payout for all members just to break even. Needs to be closer to $60 million alone to add to everyone’s share. Are they actually worth that much alone in TV distribution? Doubtful. The B1G shares are even larger, so there’s even less of a case for them there. So, how would either league potentially add them? By chasing off the underperformers revenue wise, or cutting their shares.

As far as other conferences' unequal distributions, as far as I understand it, this is just a temporary "entrance fee." Washington and Oregon will be full members when the BigTen's current TV contract is up.
Correct, but that’s not until 2030. 6 years of bargain basement checks for them.

Same goes for SMU, Stanford and Cal in the ACC.
And the GOR runs until 2035. And SMU is getting ZERO dollars from the TV deal until then….with Stanford and Cal getting peanuts as well.

While I couldn't find the payouts for the Pac12 schools that are joining the Big12, UCF, Houston, Cincy and BYU will be receiving full shares next year. The SEC was the one league that was able to expand without an entrance fee.
They expanded without an entrance fee because Texas / OU paid that exit fee to the Big 12 themselves, and alone were worth way more than enough to increase everyone’s share. So it was an easy call to not lower their initial distribution. USC got a similar deal with the B1G, I think. Nobody else who bolts before the impending ACC collapse will get such special treatment.
 
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