Is PSU's NFL success outpacing its recruiting, consistent with its recruiting, or below its recruiting?

[Nits1989]

Is PSU's NFL success outpacing its recruiting, consistent with its recruiting, or below its recruiting?

PSU has been doing pretty well in the NFL Draft. There have been a total of 37 PSU players drafted between 2016 and 2022:

2022: 8 players selected, 4th most behind Georgia, LSU and Cinci. Dotson selected #16 in 1st round.

2021: 6 players selected, tied for 8th most behind Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, ND, Florida, Michigan and LSU. Parsons selected #12 in 1st round, and Oweh selected #31 in 1st round.

2020: 5 players selected, tied for 11th most behind LSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama. Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Utah, Auburn and ND.

2019: 6 players selected, tied for 7th most behind Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Washington, Georgia and Texas A&M.

2018: 6 players selected, tied for 5th most behind Alabama, LSU, NC State and Ohio State. Barkley selected #2 in 1st round.

2017: Chris Godwin selected in 3rd round.

2016: 5 players selected, tied for 8th most behind Ohio State, Clemson, UCLA, Alabama, Florida, ND and Baylor.

Taking out 2017 as an anomaly, PSU is averaging about 7th most players drafted per year.

The following number of PSU players have been drafted at the following positions:
Offensive Line: 4 (2 centers, 1 OT, 1 OG)
Wide Receivers: 4
Running Backs: 2
Tight Ends: 2
Quarterbacks: 2

DT/DE/DL: 9 (3 DTs, 5 DEs, 1 DL)
Linebackers: 4
CB/S: 9 (breakdown is virtually even)

K: 1

The NFL draftees from PSU came from the following recruiting classes:
2011 ranked #36
2012 ranked #47
2013 ranked #43
2014 ranked #22
2015 ranked #14
2016 ranked #21
2017 ranked #18
2018 ranked #5
2019 ranked #10
2021 ranked #17

Recruit Class Re-Rankings:
In a 2017 reranking by SI of the 2014 recruiting class, PSU improved from #22 to #7.
In a 2019 reranking by The Athletic of the 2015 recruiting class, PSU improved from #14 to #3.
In a 2021 reranking by The Athletic of the 2017 recruiting class, PSU remained the same.

Blue Chip Ratio: Bud Elliott says that in order to have a chance at winning a Natty, a team must have more than 50% of its roster consist of blue chip players. PSU's roster has 55% blue chip players. According to Elliott, there are 15 teams that meet the blue chip criteria. PSU is tied for 13/15 teams which meet the criteria.

Is PSU's NFL success outpacing its recruiting, consistent with its recruiting, or below its recruiting?

 

[BiochemPSU]

Consistent. We don't out recruit Michigan or OSU, so we need a Saquon-like unicorn to rely on if we are going to beat either of them. Don't have one of those this year. Hence our likely 10-2 record.

 

[Shadow99]

Consistent. We don't out recruit Michigan or OSU, so we need a Saquon-like unicorn to rely on if we are going to beat either of them. Don't have one of those this year. Hence our likely 10-2 record.

Michigan doesn't belong in this sentence. They've been good for 2 years now...and last year they needed a complete PSU defensive breakdown to keep their playoff hopes alive. They do consistently recruit along the OL and DL better than PSU, but the ratings for the classes as a whole have been similar. OSU on the other hand has recruited top 5 classes for a long time now (sometimes even #1), and thus your statement is more applicable to OSU. Yes, those aforementioned Michigan OL and DL dominated PSU this particular season, but extrapolating that to say that they can't be beaten without a Saquon unicorn is clearly just recency bias imho.

 

[BobPSU92]

Consistent. We don't out recruit Michigan or OSU, so we need a Saquon-like unicorn to rely on if we are going to beat either of them. Don't have one of those this year. Hence our likely 10-2 record.

So f*ck us, save the occasional unicorn. Nah. Always f*ck us.

 

[Midnighter]

Is PSU's NFL success outpacing its recruiting, consistent with its recruiting, or below its recruiting?

PSU has been doing pretty well in the NFL Draft. There have been a total of 37 PSU players drafted between 2016 and 2022:

2022: 8 players selected, 4th most behind Georgia, LSU and Cinci. Dotson selected #16 in 1st round.

2021: 6 players selected, tied for 8th most behind Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, ND, Florida, Michigan and LSU. Parsons selected #12 in 1st round, and Oweh selected #31 in 1st round.

2020: 5 players selected, tied for 11th most behind LSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama. Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Utah, Auburn and ND.

2019: 6 players selected, tied for 7th most behind Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Washington, Georgia and Texas A&M.

2018: 6 players selected, tied for 5th most behind Alabama, LSU, NC State and Ohio State. Barkley selected #2 in 1st round.

2017: Chris Godwin selected in 3rd round.

2016: 5 players selected, tied for 8th most behind Ohio State, Clemson, UCLA, Alabama, Florida, ND and Baylor.

Taking out 2017 as an anomaly, PSU is averaging about 7th most players drafted per year.

The following number of PSU players have been drafted at the following positions:
Offensive Line: 4 (2 centers, 1 OT, 1 OG)
Wide Receivers: 4
Running Backs: 2
Tight Ends: 2
Quarterbacks: 2

DT/DE/DL: 9 (3 DTs, 5 DEs, 1 DL)
Linebackers: 4
CB/S: 9 (breakdown is virtually even)

K: 1

The NFL draftees from PSU came from the following recruiting classes:
2011 ranked #36
2012 ranked #47
2013 ranked #43
2014 ranked #22
2015 ranked #14
2016 ranked #21
2017 ranked #18
2018 ranked #5
2019 ranked #10
2021 ranked #17

Recruit Class Re-Rankings:
In a 2017 reranking by SI of the 2014 recruiting class, PSU improved from #22 to #7.
In a 2019 reranking by The Athletic of the 2015 recruiting class, PSU improved from #14 to #3.
In a 2021 reranking by The Athletic of the 2017 recruiting class, PSU remained the same.

Blue Chip Ratio: Bud Elliott says that in order to have a chance at winning a Natty, a team must have more than 50% of its roster consist of blue chip players. PSU's roster has 55% blue chip players. According to Elliott, there are 15 teams that meet the blue chip criteria. PSU is tied for 13/15 teams which meet the criteria.

Is PSU's NFL success outpacing its recruiting, consistent with its recruiting, or below its recruiting?

Outpacing I think - at least recently.

 

[DTownlion57]

Michigan doesn't belong in this sentence. They've been good for 2 years now...and last year they needed a complete PSU defensive breakdown to keep their playoff hopes alive. They do consistently recruit along the OL and DL better than PSU, but the ratings for the classes as a whole have been similar. OSU on the other hand has recruited top 5 classes for a long time now (sometimes even #1), and thus your statement is more applicable to OSU. Yes, those aforementioned Michigan OL and DL dominated PSU this particular season, but extrapolating that to say that they can't be beaten without a Saquon unicorn is clearly just recency bias imho.

PSU and Michigan are very similar in their skill player recruiting. I agree 100% that Michigan does a better job in the trenches. I do think coach Trautwein is doing a fantastic job but our DL haul the last couple of years outside of DDS is behind Michigan's. Need proof? Check out the top DL recruits (2021/22/23) form MD,VA,NJ our typical recruiting areas. Any suggestions?

 

[Nits1989]

Michigan doesn't belong in this sentence. They've been good for 2 years now...and last year they needed a complete PSU defensive breakdown to keep their playoff hopes alive. They do consistently recruit along the OL and DL better than PSU, but the ratings for the classes as a whole have been similar. OSU on the other hand has recruited top 5 classes for a long time now (sometimes even #1), and thus your statement is more applicable to OSU. Yes, those aforementioned Michigan OL and DL dominated PSU this particular season, but extrapolating that to say that they can't be beaten without a Saquon unicorn is clearly just recency bias imho.

I thought there was some analysis of the Michigan game that the PSU defense had poor gap integrity that allowed Michigan to run easily. Isn't that something that can be minimized, or does it really just come down to size?

 

[BiochemPSU]

Michigan doesn't belong in this sentence. They've been good for 2 years now...and last year they needed a complete PSU defensive breakdown to keep their playoff hopes alive. They do consistently recruit along the OL and DL better than PSU, but the ratings for the classes as a whole have been similar. OSU on the other hand has recruited top 5 classes for a long time now (sometimes even #1), and thus your statement is more applicable to OSU. Yes, those aforementioned Michigan OL and DL dominated PSU this particular season, but extrapolating that to say that they can't be beaten without a Saquon unicorn is clearly just recency bias imho.

Consistently recruiting better on the o line and d line is the definition of out recruiting us, imo. If you want to hold up some number in a vacuum and claim all is equal, that’s fine. But we all saw what happened. That game wasn’t one or two plays away from a PSU win. Talent ran us over.

I have seen PSU dominate with a unicorn. Outside of that, not so much.

 

[blion72]

Michigan doesn't belong in this sentence. They've been good for 2 years now...and last year they needed a complete PSU defensive breakdown to keep their playoff hopes alive. They do consistently recruit along the OL and DL better than PSU, but the ratings for the classes as a whole have been similar. OSU on the other hand has recruited top 5 classes for a long time now (sometimes even #1), and thus your statement is more applicable to OSU. Yes, those aforementioned Michigan OL and DL dominated PSU this particular season, but extrapolating that to say that they can't be beaten without a Saquon unicorn is clearly just recency bias imho.

agree with you. You need to throw out the first two years of JF and start with 2016 class. we av around 13 and our NFL production is at or even better than that level. talent itself is not the issue. there may be certain positions we have had issues - 1-T DT Davis or Wilkins body type. PJ is our only guy. we play small at 3T DT and DE but the guys are talented. Our DE many times is OLB in NFL. Our SAM and Will may be S in NFL>

 

[Bvillebaron]

I thought there was some analysis of the Michigan game that the PSU defense had poor gap integrity that allowed Michigan to run easily. Isn't that something that can be minimized, or does it really just come down to size?

I think there is some merit to that. Clearly, PSU did a better job against OSU's run offense with the same sized players. On the other hand, I think they could use some bigger bodies on the DL, especially at tackle and/or noseguard.

 

[Nits1989]

agree with you. You need to throw out the first two years of JF and start with 2016 class. we av around 13 and our NFL production is at or even better than that level. talent itself is not the issue. there may be certain positions we have had issues - 1-T DT Davis or Wilkins body type. PJ is our only guy. we play small at 3T DT and DE but the guys are talented. Our DE many times is OLB in NFL. Our SAM and Will may be S in NFL>

You’re right. PSU does seem to shift their defensive players up a weight class. Safeties playing LB, LB playing DE. Maybe Franklin is reconsidering that philosophy when he said they need to get bigger. Michigan and PSU OL were similar enough. But Michigan had a DE that went 270-280. PSU has had DL playing around that weight.