Is there a scenario that
- Thread starter dawgphd
- Start date
No. There may very well be a 3-loss SEC team in the playoffs. But it won’t be Mississippi.
Probably not. The South Carolina-Clemson winner could end up in the playoffs though.
Seems unlikely. Georgia seems like today’s big winner, and they’re done with SEC play.
Next weekend’s USC vs Clemson game is suddenly really big.
Next weekend’s USC vs Clemson game is suddenly really big.
We probably end up with:
4 Big 10 teams - Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State
1 Notre Dame
1 ACC Champion
1 Big 12 Champion
1 G5 Champion
4 SEC teams if they finish at least 10-2 (Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, potentially Texas A&M or Alabama if they can come back)
A 10-3 SEC team with a loss in the SEC Championship Game would be next in line. If they still can't get to 4 SEC teams, I would expect it to be the winner of South Carolina (would be 9-3) and Clemson (would be 10-2).
Although it's still possible that Clemson could make it to the ACC Championship Game and win it if Miami loses to Syracuse next week, which means Alabama or Ole Miss could be back in the mix at 9-3. Presumably either would be ranked ahead of an 11-2 SMU team that lost the ACC Championship Game.
4 Big 10 teams - Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State
1 Notre Dame
1 ACC Champion
1 Big 12 Champion
1 G5 Champion
4 SEC teams if they finish at least 10-2 (Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, potentially Texas A&M or Alabama if they can come back)
A 10-3 SEC team with a loss in the SEC Championship Game would be next in line. If they still can't get to 4 SEC teams, I would expect it to be the winner of South Carolina (would be 9-3) and Clemson (would be 10-2).
Although it's still possible that Clemson could make it to the ACC Championship Game and win it if Miami loses to Syracuse next week, which means Alabama or Ole Miss could be back in the mix at 9-3. Presumably either would be ranked ahead of an 11-2 SMU team that lost the ACC Championship Game.
I don't think so. When you get to three losses other teams from outside the SEC enter the picture.
The best I can do is draw up a scenario with the following teams in consideration:
Georgia (10-2)
Texas (10-2)
Texas A&M (9-3)
South Carolina (9-3)
Tennessee (9-3)
Ole Miss (9-3)
In that scenario, you might choose between 9-3 teams for a third SEC team in the CFP.
The weird thing about this scenario is that A&M would be in Atlanta, so if they lost that, they'd probably be out at 9-4. At that point, you'd be comparing Ole Miss to South Carolina, who they beat, and Tennessee coming off a loss to Vandy.
Of course, the committee could also just give the SEC two spots.
Georgia (10-2)
Texas (10-2)
Texas A&M (9-3)
South Carolina (9-3)
Tennessee (9-3)
Ole Miss (9-3)
In that scenario, you might choose between 9-3 teams for a third SEC team in the CFP.
The weird thing about this scenario is that A&M would be in Atlanta, so if they lost that, they'd probably be out at 9-4. At that point, you'd be comparing Ole Miss to South Carolina, who they beat, and Tennessee coming off a loss to Vandy.
Of course, the committee could also just give the SEC two spots.
UM has a weak SOS. That and 3 losses will get them jumped by non-SEC schools. They’re barely in with 2 losses, but there is now no way to present their resume for serious consideration. The GA win is just lipstick on a pig.
I think the SEC is now only a 3 bid league unless more chaos happens. If the ACC championship game is 11-1 Miami vs 11-1 SMU, I think you have to let both in and it would be outrageous to bump either one for a three loss SEC team.
It’d take some craziness like Auburn over Bama, GT over UGA, and likely SC over Clemson. SC might have the edge over Ole Miss, but I could see the head to head loss making SC one spot lower
They will finish with the weakest SOS in the SEC. Outside of the top 25 nationally.
To be gifted that schedule the first year of the expanded playoff with what was supposed to be your best team…
4 Big 10 (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana)
3 SEC (Texas, Georgia, Tennessee)
2 ACC (Miami, SMU)
1 Big 12 (Arizona State)
1 Group of 5
Notre Dame
You're more likely to get a 2nd Big 12 team with 2 losses or a 3rd ACC team than any of the current 3 loss SEC teams. The only curveball being if A&M beats Texas and Georgia in the championship, you might get A&M and Georgia in with 3 losses and Texas and Tennessee in with 2.
Ole Miss just so happens to be playing the 2nd worst power 4 football team in the country this week (thank God for Purdue.) If they win by 60 it still wouldn't impress anyone on the committee enough to leapfrog a 3 loss Texas, Alabama, or Georgia if they lose in the SEC Championship game.
3 SEC (Texas, Georgia, Tennessee)
2 ACC (Miami, SMU)
1 Big 12 (Arizona State)
1 Group of 5
Notre Dame
You're more likely to get a 2nd Big 12 team with 2 losses or a 3rd ACC team than any of the current 3 loss SEC teams. The only curveball being if A&M beats Texas and Georgia in the championship, you might get A&M and Georgia in with 3 losses and Texas and Tennessee in with 2.
Ole Miss just so happens to be playing the 2nd worst power 4 football team in the country this week (thank God for Purdue.) If they win by 60 it still wouldn't impress anyone on the committee enough to leapfrog a 3 loss Texas, Alabama, or Georgia if they lose in the SEC Championship game.
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