Just keeps hitting in AAA. Is he destined to be a real life Crash Davis? (obviously not the home runs but playing in the minors long enough to be a record holder type guy) Saw he's leading the AAA league in BA which I know isn't viewed like it used to be but still he clearly can hit the ball and get on base.
Jake Mangum
- Thread starter columbiadawg2
- Start date
agreed. this is the time of year to get folks up and give them a shot. Maybe trading him?
A guy like Jake not making the bigs is one of the reasons I dont watch MLB very much these days. Used to eat and breathe it but the game now is nothing more than throwing 100 MPH and hitting HR's. It bores the hell outta me. A guy like Pete Rose would have trouble staying on a MLB roster these days.
Up to .330 after last night. I don't know what else a guy has to do to at least get a chance. It's not like Tampa has anything to lose if he sucks.
Two things - Jake is not on their 40 man roster. The only players who can come up are those on the 40 man. Second, back in the day teams could expand all the way up to 40 but now the limit is 28. Even if the Rays could go past 28, they would first have to add him to the 40 man roster which seems unlikely.
He is going to be a great head coach someday after being a great hitting coach someday first!
I wish I could give this post multiple thumbs up.
Good thing about rose too. I despise that pos, lying, pedophile.
Too bad he can’t play INF. Adam Frazier is hanging around and he can’t hit for _it. Maybe demand a trade to KC ?
I heard an interview with Gautreau last week and he has a friend way up in Tampa’s scouting who gave him some hope about Jake’s situation. Did anyone hear that on Joel T’s podcast ?
I heard an interview with Gautreau last week and he has a friend way up in Tampa’s scouting who gave him some hope about Jake’s situation. Did anyone hear that on Joel T’s podcast ?
Been beat to a pulp.
He's 28 playing in AAA. He's a roster filler.
Tampa as 4 guys that are OF only on their 40 man. They have 2 more guys on their 40 man that can play OF. They have a guy on their 40 man, that is in AAA ball. That alone makes Jake about the 7th OFer in line AND behind 1 that is on his own team
They also have a 24 year old in AAA ball whose put up reputable numbers. Their #4 prospect is an OF in AA ball whose doing well.. and their #5 prospect is an OFer as well.
The rays arent an organization flush with cash. It would cost them money to take someone off the 40 man and add someone to it. Do you really think they'd do it for a 28 year old that has never even been on a 40 man depsite being in 4 organizations?
It sucks. But unless the rays are looking for a feel good story... Jake isnt going to make it to the show with them. His best chance is yet another trade.. or again someone looking for a feel good story.
He'll have a job for the next few seasons if not more if he wants one and is a good clubhouse guy.. which again isnt the worst thing in the world right. Like the bull durham line.. you get to keep going to the ballpark and getting paid to go there. Thats not all bad.
For you analytical guys. Which we all know Tampa is. His zips projection as a big league is 244 average, 290 ob%, 350 slug. An OPS around 640. 4 homers and nearly 100 strikouts in 100 games. His numbers are carried in AAA by an insanely high BABIP.
He's 28 playing in AAA. He's a roster filler.
Tampa as 4 guys that are OF only on their 40 man. They have 2 more guys on their 40 man that can play OF. They have a guy on their 40 man, that is in AAA ball. That alone makes Jake about the 7th OFer in line AND behind 1 that is on his own team
They also have a 24 year old in AAA ball whose put up reputable numbers. Their #4 prospect is an OF in AA ball whose doing well.. and their #5 prospect is an OFer as well.
The rays arent an organization flush with cash. It would cost them money to take someone off the 40 man and add someone to it. Do you really think they'd do it for a 28 year old that has never even been on a 40 man depsite being in 4 organizations?
It sucks. But unless the rays are looking for a feel good story... Jake isnt going to make it to the show with them. His best chance is yet another trade.. or again someone looking for a feel good story.
He'll have a job for the next few seasons if not more if he wants one and is a good clubhouse guy.. which again isnt the worst thing in the world right. Like the bull durham line.. you get to keep going to the ballpark and getting paid to go there. Thats not all bad.
For you analytical guys. Which we all know Tampa is. His zips projection as a big league is 244 average, 290 ob%, 350 slug. An OPS around 640. 4 homers and nearly 100 strikouts in 100 games. His numbers are carried in AAA by an insanely high BABIP.
Last edited:
It's a roster issue. He should've been called up over Misner, but there is no logical roster spot for him against any other.
Maybe. Playing ability & coaching don't correlate.
Misner has more power, better base runner, and a better outfielder. Switch hitter. Has always been a better prospect thru his career.. AND is 2 years younger. Plus was already on the 40 man.
Sorry he didnt deserve to go over Misner
agreed. Was the PTBNL. So he wasnt even coveted in the orginial trade.
Baseball is a business. Way more to it than just bring a guy up because he's hitting 300 in AAA ball. At this point it'll take an organization wanting to reverse course... He needed to put together this type of season at age 23-24. Not 28-29
Hes also eligible for the rule 5 draft. Which means any team in baseball could get him for free.
The only catch is he'd have to be on the 26 man roster all season. If not, they'd have to return him to Tampa for free.
So basically if any MLB organization wanted to give him a shot at the MLB level... they could... for absolutely nothing...
That’s not far off from the current OF output from the Rays, and that’s just a projection. Mean result if you will. Could fall higher or lower.
I still think Misner’s a better prospect though for what is valued in today’s game. But Jake wouldn’t just be an automatic bust in MLB.
He’s had an “insanely high BABIP” at every level all the way back to MSU, because he’s a line drive hitter. Most balls in play are line drives or very sharply hit grounders. Those guys have continuous success. It isn’t just luck. Him being able to make solid contact on any pitch, anywhere in the zone, from either side of the plate has always been his calling card.
Last edited:
OK? So the rays should pull up a worse player than they already have on the roster? Because its still worse... think we all know they are looking for better.
Projections matter. Organizations pay millions of dollars to people to do these projections. To think these projections are going to way off, isnt something any organization is going to bank on.
and actually is BABIP is higher than its ever been in the minor leagues. 30 points higher than it was last season and about 60 points higher than it is for his career. MLB average BABIP is around 300. Jakes is 388 at the AAA level. Even if that drops to say 320 which would still be above average at the MLB level... his numbers would still drop dramatically.
The leader in BABIP at the MLB level is Judge at 369 for comparsion. Even guys like Altuve and Turner have BABIPs in the 330-340s... and those guys are proven all-stars/borderline HOFers. To expect Jake to have that level of success in the big leagues is just plain silly.... and when his entire offensive worth is based heavily in BABIP... its easy to see why his ZIPS projection is what it is.
Also the ZIPS still had Jake at slightly over 300 in BABIP. So they still think of him as an above average hitter BABIP wise, but when it drops that much... it kills a player like jake.. hence the projections
Last edited:
It's hard to explain to younger people how awesome baseball was right up until 1994. You had it all. Baseball cards, stats, home runs, John Olerud-types, Greg Maddux-types. It was still America's past-time. People actually got into who won or lost. Yeah....the season was still too long, even back then, but at least it had tradition.
Then......Strike 1, the actual strike. Strike 2, roids. Strike 3, analytics.
MLB probably could have survived any 2 of those 3. But all of them together, relegated it to just another thing to do or watch. It doesn't really matter anymore. Kind of like college football.
Still popular, will still make money, all that. But the passion is gone.
I think the case with JM is that he plays the game differently from everyone else these days, and still has an old school approach. If he was swinging out of his shoes on every pitch and racking up a 30% K rate just to hit 10 HR’s or so, he’d have never made it even to AA. You have to account for that in his projected value for an MLB team. Projections are based on what players with similar numbers in recent years have done after making the jump. There are chances those projections are faulty if they are based on players with a different plate approach, which is basically everyone. JM’s skill at the plate is very niche, and not teachable. So everyone has pretty much quit trying.
They wouldn’t have to be “way off” to still not provide the best path forward. If JM had a .720 MLB OPS, instead of .640 or whatever is currently projected, he’d still be the 2nd best outfielder for the Rays right now. That’s not a huge gap.
Wrong. He has a .389 BABIP in 2024.
His 2022 BABIP in AAA was also .389.
His 2023 BABIP in AAA was .361, also really good.
His 4-year MSU career was .393….pretty much in line with what he’s doing now.
Like I said, he’s maintained it at every level. Who’s to say he can’t keep it up with one more promotion when its been happening for 8-9 years now?
28 points higher, when his overall BA is also up 30 points. Funny how that works. He had a good year last year and an even better year this year.
Wrong again. His career BABIP in the minors is .357. He’s 32 points above that.
His career BABIP in 3 seasons of AAA is even better - .375. He’s only 14 points above that.
So, do better research next time. Again, he’s a high line drive rate hitter, which means he’s going to have a consistently high BABIP because he consistently makes solid contact. You have to greatly discount projections here because, again, he’s not playing the way everyone else is.
For players who are all trying to hit it out of the yard on every swing. Again, that’s not JM.
Ok what about .340? .350? Because both of those are well in play for him at the MLB level.
JM can certainly have the same BABIP as them. No question. Those guys are where they are though because they are also hammering it out of the yard along with that high BABIP. So no, JM doesn’t really have that same outlook. But he can still hit at an MLB level, even if he’s not an All-Star. His biggest problem is still the lack of power when he plays a position on the field that demands it. That is the big hurdle. But still, if he was guaranteed to be a .700 OPS player at MLB, he’d stay up somewhere for sure. It’s just hard to get a chance for that with all the red tape.
I’m just going to call BS on the projection in this case.
4 years in college - .393
3 years in AAA - .375
Given the above, I think a .700 OPS and .330-.340 BABIP would be on the table for him. His problem is that his ceiling isn’t much higher than that. And MLB organizations are more obsessed with ceiling than anything else.
Last edited:
What makes you think this? I’m not saying you’re wrong or anything. I have no idea but I really don’t know him personally and maybe you do.
1. His strikeout rate is 20.7%, 17-18% over the last two seasons. The MLB average strikeout rate is 22%. He's strikes out as much as sluggers do. Big problem.
2. 80 OPS points is HUGE. If you dont know this, you dont know baseball
3. Mangums Babips have been-- 287, 294, 340, 346, 383, 356, and this year 388. The florida complex league isnt minor leagues. My facts were and are correct. So your numbers are way off if you are including complex league numbres which is looks like you are.
4. I'll play the game and use your math BABIP. College 400, now 350, MLB 325-- it makes him a below average player. And a top 50 players in BABIP
5. Again 340 or 350 BABIP would be in the top 5 in all major league baseball. Its a pipedream to even consider that would happen.
God you have zero clue about baseball. The more you talk the dumber you sound. You think Jake Mangum would lead the MLB in BABIP..... enough said. Your a fool. Again if ANY MLB Team thought this... they could get him for FREE... yes FREE..... Terd Tapley again with the dumbest scouting report known to man.
The gap b/t AAA to the MLB-- is wider than the gap from College baseball to AA baseball. Its taking him 3 seasons to be a average to slightly above player at the AAA level and this is by far the best year of his career at age 28, when the peak seasons are starting to plateau or even drop off.... but again this discussion ended as soon as you said hed be a top 5 hitter in BABIP at the mlb level... you know very little about how players are evaluated. But youve shown this is constant disucssions over time here
if ANY baseball guy or baseball organziation... that means 1 of them... believed any of the stuff you just said above. Then he'd be on a 40 man somewhere.
The zips projection of 650 and a BABIP of 311 is real. And these people get paid MILLIONS of dollars.
If only ONE organziation thought the way you think. Which is 340-350 type BABIP which would immediately raise his OPS to 740-750. Switch hitter. Then he'd be on a roster somewhere.
He isnt. And the reason he isnt, isnt due to red tape. Its because he cannot produce at that level. If he could, he'd be on a roster. Red tape gets cut all the time for people that can help organizations win. Especially players who would be making the MLB mininimum.
Chalk another one up for the entire MLB baseball world... not agreeing with our very own TERD TAPLEY. I know its hard to believe...
LOL. Guess I’ll tell you like I tell my 3rd grader, always check your work.
20.7%?
Career PA’s in the minors: 1803
Career K’s in the minors: 314
K rate = 314/1803 * 100 = 17.4%
His AAA numbers? 17.1% over 3 years.
Both of those are 5% BETTER than the average MLB rate. Yet you’re trying to paint it as a negative. And also, the MLB “average” is what it is because the big sluggers are actually pulling up the rear of that metric, at 25-30%. Aaron Judge’s career K rate is 28.6%, for instance. But I’m somehow the one that doesn’t know baseball…..you legit just missed on every factual point you attempted here.
80 OPS points is half of the difference from the current best Rays starting OF and the worst one. And the ZIPS .640 projection is still 40-50 points above what the current Rays CF is doing. So, in this context, I’m saying its not very significant…..
What if I told you that the last 5 numbers on that list (all of which are .340 and above) represent 87% of his career MiLB AB’s? Now, check that career number once again.
I truly don’t think you know how statistics work.
His career BABIP in MiLB is .356.
His AAA one is .372.
(Both off slightly from my OP where I didn’t account for adding back sac flys, which is negligible)
His current .388 is only 16 points higher than his career AAA number. It’s only 28 points higher than his overall career number and his last season number (which are the same). Your 60 point outlier nonsense was thus pulled out of your ***. Own it.
Oh you mean the league where he has 7 of his 1644 professional at-bats? Who even cares about this?
The complex league stats means nothing, whether you include them or not. Again, read a stats book. And I didn’t include them in any of the individual numbers.
What if I told you that 50% of MLB players are below average MLB players? This topic isn’t if he’d be an All-Star or a HoF player. Its whether or not he can play at an MLB level.
Which I would expect from someone who is not swinging for the fences on every pitch. Because that’s what everyone else is doing. If he forfeits the power for average, he has to hit for average or he’d have no path.
God knows a lot more about baseball than I do. But at least I can get the basic stats correct, if nothing else…..while you’re over here struggling like hell with basic fractions. Also, I never said he’d lead the league in BABIP or anything else, or that he’d be some exceptional player. Just that he could possibly hold his own, and that’s by no means a definite.
Hell yeah, it’s back! Shall we revisit the Hunter Hines scouting report again? You know, the one where you said I was full of it for saying he wouldn’t be a high draft pick this year….and in the end he was a non-draft pick?
Depends on which level of college. But JM has already become the same player he was in college in AAA, so its kind of irrelevant.
It didn’t take him 3 years to do a damn thing. His AAA OPS numbers by year: .836, .771, .829. He’s been good the whole time you clown.
It obviously didn’t end because you typed out 2 more long as hell posts. You were wrong on Hines, wrong on Dak, wrong on basically everything else where you’ve tried to take a douche bag contrarian position for no reason. You just can’t help yourself. But now the discussion from my end is done.
And oh yeah, a .340 BABIP would barely crack the Top 20 in MLB, and would be nowhere close to Top 5. So again, more nonsense from you there. Below is a list of the top BABIP in 2024 with a minimum of 300 PA. Obviously list gets a lot larger when you reduce the minimum PA’s.
Last edited:
1. I was looking at the zips project. My mistake. However one will fairly assume he'll strikeout more at the MLB level. Even zips has him at 20+ % which seems about right and is basically league average or on par with players that actually provide power
2. Again 80 OPS points is the difference in an HOF and a guy that was a platoon guy. Its a big difference in any sense.
3. Ok, again he's best seasons are coming when hes 26-28 competing against players that are 23-24. Good for him. And again his BEST AAA season is only marginally above average even if its considered above average
4. 50% of major league players are below average? Thats why its an average, half have to be above it and half have to be below it. There are players that are good at different things. Jake would and will no doubt be below average offensively at the MLB level, even more so at the outfield position.... what does he have that is a plus to outweight that?
5. His career BABIP isnt 356... i'll let you go look that up
6. So a guy that has never played MLB baseball.. is going to walk right into the league and have a better BABIP than guys like Altuve and Turner who dont swing for the fences every swing........ RIGHHHHTTTTTTT... bartender give me a shot of what he's drinking
6. True youve said he would hold his own. If his babip dropped to 320. Which would be MORE than holding his own.. then his ZIPS stats become very accurate... and those stats are those of a player that doesnt belong in the big leagues
7. Hunter Hines. You mean the guy you said couldnt hit lefties yet hit half his homers against them. That widely known scouting report that you could never produce.... yeah lets revisit.
8. Gap is very revelant. It took him 6 years to become that player. His first 4 seasons he wasnt that player, he was actually a very poor player. The gulf b/t AAA to the bigs is that wide. He wont have 6 years to figure it out.
I was wrong on hines? Hines was called multiple times in the top 10 rounds. He told people after the money fell around the 4-6th rounds he'd be returning to college. I was wrong on Dak? How? Dak has yet to prove me wrong on any account. I said i wouldnt pay him.. and i wouldnt have. But doesnt change anything about the QBs he was or has been...
youre by far the biggest idiot on these forums next to goat. You spew out information that is your opinion and try to speak of it likes its fact.... the above is the case in point....
again its a really simple question--- IF anything you said above is true or even remotely close to reasonable then CERTAINLY one person in the MLB would agree with you right?????... and Jake can be had for FREE by any MLB team--- FREE--- and be paid the big league minimum.... then why hasnt he been given a cup of coffee yet?? You can just skip the rambling-- because the answer is simple--- no one in the MLB agrees with your opinion OR any of the crap you just spewed out above.
EDIT you said 340-350. You also mentioned a 360+ BABIP that he has in AAA and suggested that he could maintain that since he always has been that type of player. The 360 plus puts him inside the top 5. The 340-350 lands him inside the top 20... and going back farther anyone that has had a BABIP at 340 or above has landed themselves inside the top 15 every season in that stat, sure lets just assume ol Jake can pull that off----- another way ol Terd tries to skew facts
Last edited:
Its not a big difference within the overall range of outcomes. .640 OPS puts him in the upper 50th percentile of MLB hitters. The #133 hitter right now in 2024 has a .647 OPS. 30 MLB teams x 9 lineup spots is 270. So if you’re Top 135 you’re in the upper 50% at a minimum, and that’s not considering the platoon guys, regular subs, etc.
Add 80 points to that, you’re at .720, and you’re the 89th best OPS player in 2024. Again, not a huge gap in the context of projection vs. actual outcome.
He’s currently #21 in AAA in OPS. 30 teams. Again, 270 players start every night. So in the Top 10 percentile in terms of AAA production. That is, objectively, way above average. And what you continue to miss is that he’s been at that level for 3 years. His 2022 OPS was .832, and he was at .771 in 2023.
You finally picked up on something.
He will no doubt lack power. But saying he’ll be below average offensively overall is in no way a certainty.
I have no interest in teaching you any more math lessons today. Just stop.
If his ZIPS stats are exact, and he’s a .640 OPS player, that’s still top half of MLB, chief. See above.
Yes, that guy. The “high draft pick” guy who didn’t get drafted. The guy who hit a paltry .257 in Year 3 against everyone….so he certainly sucked even more than that against one side or the other. You tell me where he was worse.
Well, he only has 5 MiLB seasons (which includes a 2 month stint in A- ball directly after the CWS), so that math doesn’t really math, either.
He has been very good outside of the very first few months right after Omaha. 2020 there was no season. 2021-2022 (1.5 seasons) he was a .780 OPS player in AA. 2022-now, he’s been a .801 OPS player in AAA. Offensively, he’s been very effective for 4 straight years. Poor player my ***.
He didn’t need 6 years. Took all of 2 months.
I’ve already answered this multiple times. You’ve just been too stupid to notice it. He has no ceiling. That and lack of power is the problem.
Player A is judged by scouts to have a 40% chance of becoming just an average MLB hitter, but is judged as having a 20% chance of becoming a 950+ OPS player, due to measurables and projections.
Player B is judged by scouts as having a 65% chance of becoming an average MLB hitter, but a 0% chance of becoming a 950+ OPS player.
Player B unanimously has better chances of overall success. But Player A is getting the investment from GM’s over Player B every time.
Here’s what you don’t get. At all levels of baseball - including MLB, international leagues, and all the way down to college and high school ranks…..there are far more players that can hit adequately or better at an MLB level than there are MLB position player roster spots. That is the reality. Jake Mangum is one of those players. Nothing more, nothing less. So are many others. He could get called up and do reasonably well, but so could any number of other guys. But teams know that he’s not gonna hit 30 HR’s, so no one’s chomping at the bit. That element of certainty in his development scares people. His odds of hitting at that .640 OPS, or better, would therefore have to be 100% for him to get the call-up. And, they aren’t. It’s that simple.
You very well could be right in this case but dude you give your opinion like it’s the gospel except you’re wrong all the time.
Pete rose is a pedophile? All the people bitching about him gambling and/or not being in the hall, and that somehow doesn’t get mentioned?
I suspect he will be a good coach for reasons other than hours play on the field. I actually wonder whether he can be a good hitting coach. Sometimes players that are a natural at something have trouble translating what makes them good into instruction.
This is by far the dumbest thing and sums up your level of thinking.
There are players in high school that can hit as good or better than people currently in the MLB.
You have zero concept of how good the MLB game is. How good the pitchers are. How good the hitters are. How good the defenders are. Ive been on a big league field with a family friend to watch pre-game work. Ive seen games from right above the dugout and right behind home plate. I also go to about 30-50 SEC games a year.. and I've ventured to watch a few minor league games yearly.
The difference in those big leaguers to the other levels is HUGE. It cant even be described. Its why some of the games best prospects flame out as soon as they dip their toe in big league waters. You take a true big leaguer and stick in him AAA ball for 100 games he'd put up video game numbers... and thats the 12th hitter on the team, not the stars.
You think because a life long minor leaguer has produced slightly above average OPS over a few seasons, and because he plays a style you like... that he can be successful in the big leagues. And the reason why he hasnt gotten the call is because the big leagues doesnt appreciate his game... and thats the farthest thing from fact. The facts are the game has chewed up and spit out many players better than Jake Mangum... and any baseball person knows there is a 99% chance it would do the same thing to him. If ANY organzation thought anywhere near the way you do about Mangum.. then somewhere over that illustrious 5 year minor league career someone would have noticed it and given him a shot. They havent.. and its not because they are scared... its because his skill set isnt what it takes to be a big leaguer.. and that frusterates people like you and goat because you think the game has turned into homer or nothing... in some ways it has... but there will always be a place in the game for others who have a skill set that would benefit an MLB team. Jake doesnt have that skill set. His ZIPs projection is right on par with what any normal person that understands the game would be, and he doesnt nothing in another area balance the severly below average offensive player he would be. Therefore he has no place currently, and the window for a place for him is closing fast if it hasnt already.
Again the carrying cost on him is/was NOTHING. IF any club thought he would be of benefit to their organization in ANY way, it would cost them pennies to find out. And if he blossomed into any type of player, even a bench player-- it would be of benefit to them greatly because he's making big league minimum and again costed them absolutely nothing to get his services. There are people all over the big leagues that are/or have gotten their cup of coffee that way, who arent home run types... theyve also changed the minor league system so that guys who are life long minor leaguers can move more freely in hopes of getting their shot at the big leagues....so there are spots for guys like that at that level and teams looking for playesr to fill those spots... he just hasnt been good enough to earn those spots.
Last edited:
Yep. This may come as a shock to you, but there are high school hitters (and pitchers!) that are selected in the 1st round of the MLB draft every year.
Because….drumroll….some of them have the ability to hit at an MLB level. The strongest indicator that they would be ready to have success at that level is….drumroll…..success in AA and AAA.
You aren’t special my guy. I’ve been to dozens of MLB games too….all over the country. Been to even more minor league games, and attended MSU / SEC games regularly since I was 5 years old.
Didn’t read any of this.
Because Selmon & Lemon are working on a deal to bring him to Vegas' as our next hitting coach.
Jake has to hit at least a few HRs. Pete Rose hit about 150 during his 20+ year career. Let Will Clark give him some hitting instructions on developing more power.
If he played in my era 90’s he would have already been in few All Star games. But this is what I hate about the new era of analytics and all that. It’s ********.
Latest posts
Get unlimited access today.