Keep an eye on next Tuesday

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Especially if you live in the western half of MS and south of 82. Models are starting to gain some consistency on a potential severe threat in about 8 days. Not ready to say it's going to happen, but it certainly appears to be something worth watching as the models are starting to kick back some interesting parameters.

And shameless plug, if you're curious as to what I look at, parameter wise, for severe weather then you might find the video below of interest. It's one video of a five part video series I made for my chase team on severe weather topics. Give it a listen if you're having trouble sleeping. You'll either learn a couple things or have you're insomnia cured so win/win.


https://youtu.be/LeWR9JAXu4E

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

And now the SPC has added a rather rare day 8 severe threat outlook. Early signals indicating this could...could...be a significant event.

 

[dorndawg]

Folks are always baffled when I know a weather event is coming, and I haven't figured out a good way to say it's thanks to Hugh's Burner Phone & the boys over at Sixpack. It's always appreciated.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Just don’t let them in on your secret weapon and just continue to amaze them.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

Keep pointing at your knee as you tell them.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Just don’t let them in on your secret weapon and just continue to amaze them.

Unless they may want to subscribe to our youtube and patreon sites. Then, by all means, spread the word.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Wow Hugh, someone must not like weather with all the downvotes in this thread.

 

[dorndawg]

Wow Hugh, someone must not like weather with all the downvotes in this thread.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Thanks. Plan on taking a better look at this when I get home tonight. Are all the models syncing already? That's not good especially since it's highlighting my area the day before.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Thanks. Plan on taking a better look at this when I get home tonight. Are all the models syncing already? That's not good especially since it's highlighting my area the day before.

They have been pretty close. At least the Euro and GFS. I haven't looked at any others.

 

[NTDawg]

Wow Hugh, someone must not like weather with all the downvotes in this thread.

Its those Russian bots or Confederate bearsharts same thing

 

[Bill Shankly]

If you have ever been affected by a really bad storm you should understand the down votes.

 

[Dawgbite]

When the local weather guys start talking about upcoming sever weather, the first thing my wife asks " what's Six Pack saying about the weather?"

 

[The Peeper]

Ill carry it one step further and say that my wife asks this about most any topic that comes up that we discuss, "whats The Pack saying"? She's never once even seen the page but respects the differing opinions that she hears from me

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Looking at the 00z run of the GFS and I'm really not seeing anything to change my mind on Tuesday being a significant severe weather event. I'm also still holding onto my thoughts that south of 82 and west of 55 is still the prime area. With this still 6 days out a lot can change, but the gfs and euro have both been consistent with this. By this weekend we'll be close enough for the NAM suite of models to start giving their opinions.

 

[WrapItDog]

Will the wind at the Dude be blowing out to left field, right field, or rotating during the Tues night baseball game**

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

It's looking like some interesting times all the way from tomorrow through Tuesday across the Southern Plains over to The Mid South.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Upgrade to enhanced risk for Tuesday.

 

[Drebin]

Upgrade to enhanced risk for Tuesday.

This is a long way out to be slinging an enhanced risk at us.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

This is a long way out to be slinging an enhanced risk at us.

The 00z GFS model run was showing some scary parameters. Not all were video game numbers but some were. If that trend continues I wouldn't be surprised to see it end up at a moderate risk.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Hatched soon. I haven't had a chance to look today but the GFS last night was serious. Very serious.

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

Folks are always baffled when I know a weather event is coming, and I haven't figured out a good way to say it's thanks to Hugh's Burner Phone & the boys over at Sixpack. It's always appreciated.

do what I do. Take off your sunglasses, look at the clouds one day, and then tell them “it looks like the weather may get bad next Tuesday”. They may look at you funny the first two times… but eventually they think you are a cloud reading genius.

if they ask how you know… just make up some BS about the length and direction of the cirrus clouds or something.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Every time it clouds up in the spring anybody loosely affiliated with weather gets asked if this event is going go be another 4/27/11. And that gets egged on by jackasses on social media pumping out fear porn by the dump truck full. So I decided to address a few things.

4/27/11 was a generational level outbreak. The one before then was the super outbreak of 1974. This far out it's impossible to know with any certainty how strong this Tuesday will be. On 4/23/11 they didn't know what was getting ready to happen. So anybody making claims of a massive tornado outbreak Tuesday is straight up full of ****.

That said, here is what we know. The SPC placed most of MS under a day 5 enhanced risk. That has no bearing on how bad it will be and doesn't mean this will end up a high risk. It simply means there's enough model agreement to be reasonably certain we will have severe weather on Tuesday. Now, the models are showing some very favorable parameters for a significant severe weather event. Some of the values are concerning. However, some of the others are just now coming into the low end of the severe threshold. The question is whether those marginal parameters keep trending up or will the high level numbers start coming down. Another mitigating factor is there appears to be little, if any, cap in place during the morning. That can lead to early messy convection that hampers supercell development. Will that continue or will some semblance of an early morning cap be in place to impede early convection? These are just some of the questions that are impossible to answer now. That is why the SPC will not issue a moderate risk before day 3 and a high risk before day 2. If they aren't sure enough to make the call 4 days out then Bob's weather page doesn't have a clue when he's saying it'll be Armageddon this far out.

So, how do I think this plays out? Based on the trends I'm seeing right now it would not surprise me to see parts of MS end up in a moderate risk for Tuesday. My thinking is that area, if it happens, will be primarily west of I-55 and south of Highway 82. By tomorrow afternoon some of the midrange models will start coming into play and it'll be interesting to see what they say. But no need to panic. This is spring in MS. We get storm systems like this every year. Just be prepared. Sunday, a video I made on sheltering during severe weather will hit our YouTube page. It was the fifth and last video in the severe weather series I made. It's currently available now on our Patreon site, but due to the subject of the video, will be made public to everybody on Sunday. So give it a listen and make sure you're ready for severe weather when it affects your area.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Every time it clouds up in the spring anybody loosely affiliated with weather gets asked if this event is going go be another 4/27/11. And that gets egged on by jackasses on social media pumping out fear porn by the dump truck full. So I decided to address a few things.

4/27/11 was a generational level outbreak. The one before then was the super outbreak of 1974. This far out it's impossible to know with any certainty how strong this Tuesday will be. On 4/23/11 they didn't know what was getting ready to happen. So anybody making claims of a massive tornado outbreak Tuesday is straight up full of ****.

That said, here is what we know. The SPC placed most of MS under a day 5 enhanced risk. That has no bearing on how bad it will be and doesn't mean this will end up a high risk. It simply means there's enough model agreement to be reasonably certain we will have severe weather on Tuesday. Now, the models are showing some very favorable parameters for a significant severe weather event. Some of the values are concerning. However, some of the others are just now coming into the low end of the severe threshold. The question is whether those marginal parameters keep trending up or will the high level numbers start coming down. Another mitigating factor is there appears to be little, if any, cap in place during the morning. That can lead to early messy convection that hampers supercell development. Will that continue or will some semblance of an early morning cap be in place to impede early convection? These are just some of the questions that are impossible to answer now. That is why the SPC will not issue a moderate risk before day 3 and a high risk before day 2. If they aren't sure enough to make the call 4 days out then Bob's weather page doesn't have a clue when he's saying it'll be Armageddon this far out.

So, how do I think this plays out? Based on the trends I'm seeing right now it would not surprise me to see parts of MS end up in a moderate risk for Tuesday. My thinking is that area, if it happens, will be primarily west of I-55 and south of Highway 82. By tomorrow afternoon some of the midrange models will start coming into play and it'll be interesting to see what they say. But no need to panic. This is spring in MS. We get storm systems like this every year. Just be prepared. Sunday, a video I made on sheltering during severe weather will hit our YouTube page. It was the fifth and last video in the severe weather series I made. It's currently available now on our Patreon site, but due to the subject of the video, will be made public to everybody on Sunday. So give it a listen and make sure you're ready for severe weather when it affects your area.

Great post. 4-27-11 was definitely a generational event and should not be used to compare every system. The biggest thing I've seen come out of that event that was good is that it made people more aware. Some of the media tends to just be fast and a little to easy to pull the fear factor out when they know how rare those events are. Just be aware and have a plan and you should be ok

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Even though, per my last post, I still don't think this will be close to a 4/27/11...the following is from the latest SPC discussion for Tuesday. This is some somber wording:

Latest deterministic and ensemble runs of the medium-range global models continue to depict likelihood of a continuation of potentially substantial severe-weather event across the central Gulf Coast states Tuesday and into Wednesday. This includes a reasonable probability of a regional-type tornado outbreak centered over central and southern Mississippi for Tuesday.
As strong upper low/trough over the central and southern Plains region shifts gradually eastward, a belt of very strong mid- and upper-level southwesterlies will likely extend from east Texas across the Tennessee Valley, atop a 60 kt southerly low-level jet. The resulting/anticipated degree of veering and increasing flow with height falls within high-end parameter space for significant tornadoes.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Non-related question to this topic. But a meteorology question for you.
Why don’t we typically get severe weather on the coast? I grew up in the pine belt and it seems like that was tornado alley. Does the gulf moisture not lead to ideal conditions?
Is the pine belt in the perfect zone from norther and southern fronts to make dangerous weather?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Non-related question to this topic. But a meteorology question for you.
Why don’t we typically get severe weather on the coast? I grew up in the pine belt and it seems like that was tornado alley. Does the gulf moisture not lead to ideal conditions?
Is the pine belt in the perfect zone from norther and southern fronts to make dangerous weather?

They do get severe weather. Florida coast actually had a couple tornadoes yesterday. But the reason they may not get as much as other parts of the state is usually due to the track of the low pressure system. The further you get from the parent low, the more you lose ideal wind fields to produce supercells. Those lows usually track through the central to northern part of the US. But believe me, the coast is more than capable of getting severe weather when the parameters come together. It's also an issue of scale. The coast is a small area geographically compared to the pine belt or the rest of the state. So odds are naturally lower it sees fewer severe storms just to the amount of area affected.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Well I went from having tornado sirens going off a dozen times during the year in the pine belt, to having maybe one dangerous system a year where I’ve lived on the coast for 7 years

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

View attachment 24071

In my neck of the woods this is the first enhanced the three for Texas in March and it's uncomfortably close to me.

View attachment 24072

 

[thatsbaseball]

April 2011 .... Holy crap

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/societal-impacts/tornadoes/1/4?fatalities=false&mean=true

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

SPC has upgraded to a moderate risk for Tuesday with a significant severe weather event and tornado outbreak expected. Take all precautions for this storm system especially if you live in the red shaded area.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

With the anticipated significant severe expected Tuesday, we decided to make my last video on sheltering tips publicly available this morning. Give it a watch make sure you're fully prepared just in case.

https://youtu.be/Gpp-L0uKnJk

 

[mcdawg22]

Well I went from having tornado sirens going off a dozen times during the year in the pine belt, to having maybe one dangerous system a year where I’ve lived on the coast for 7 years

Same here. The storms the other day were at least 15 miles inland and that’s the way it always seems. The only time I can think of a “tornado” south of me is during hurricanes. The spring storms may produce a waterspout but it’s gone as soon as it hits land. As we all know the normal tornado direction with these fronts is SW to NE. I wonder if the cooler water hampers development.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

That’s what I’ve always though. I’m about 12 miles inland as the crow flies, and there’s been maybe two confirmed tornados in my area since I’ve lived here, and never any south unless it’s during storms like you said. The large majority of damage done to our area during the big hurricane in 2021 (why the name escapes me I don’t know) was from tornados

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

If the moisture/dewpoint wind makes it further north you might see the moderate area increase to the north. Last night not all the models are in agreement as to how far the +60° dew points are going to make it North.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Dumb weather question no. 17 by me. If there is still some question of where exactly the moderate risk will settle why not wait until tonight or in the morning to issue it ?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Dumb weather question no. 17 by me. If there is still some question of where exactly the moderate risk will settle why not wait until tonight or in the morning to issue it ?

They now think they have enough model agreement showing placement and strength to issue it. In fact they've probably known for a while but this is the earliest they issue a moderate risk.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Just to get it out there and give people a heads up.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Don't know if true but it's interesting

[FONT=&quot]As you may have seen, SPC issued a rather rare Day 3 Moderate Risk for severe weather Tuesday.How rare? - 1st ever in March- 4th since the MRGL/ENH categories started in October 2014
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

They now think they have enough model agreement showing placement and strength to issue it. In fact they've probably known for a while but this is the earliest they issue a moderate risk.

Wow! The wording is strong and that was early this morning. The next update should be interesting.

SPC AC 200757 Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED MRGL RISK LINE ...SUMMARY... A substantial severe weather event -- including potential for significant tornadoes -- remains evident over the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region Tuesday.

<tbody>
</tbody>

Lower Mississippi/central Gulf Coast States...
A regional severe-weather outbreak -- including potential for
several tornadoes (a few potentially significant) remains evident
for Tuesday. Severe storms -- including tornado risk -- will likely
be ongoing at the start of the period across the Sabine River Valley
area of east Texas/western Louisiana, as a surface cold front moves
steadily eastward.

As southerly flow ahead of the front continues to advect high
theta-e air northward from the Gulf, limited heating will allow
destabilization to occur through the morning and into the afternoon.
At this time, it appears that in addition to storms occurring ahead
of the advancing front, pre-frontal cellular convection will also
evolve through late morning/afternoon. With strong low-level
southerly flow (50 to 70 kt at 850mb) in place, and 70 to 90 kt
mid-level westerlies overspreading the region, shear very favorable
for strong updraft rotation and low-level mesocyclones will exist.
As such, potential for strong tornadoes will exist with the evolving
supercell storms ahead of the front. Additionally, tornadoes (along
with damaging winds and hail) will be likely with storms shifting
eastward in tandem with the cold front.

Into the evening and overnight, severe risk -- including potential
for tornadoes and damaging winds -- will continue. While
diminishing somewhat later in the period, threat will likely spread
across southern Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle.

..Goss.. 03/20/2022