Keep an eye on next Tuesday
- Thread starter Hugh's Burner Phone
- Start date
Waiting for one also. From what I have access to it appears to be pretty much unchanged in the last 24 hours.
Looks like it will be mostly a rainmaker here in Northeast Mississippi as the temps here will only get to low 60’s according to TWC. The area between Jackson and New Orleans probably should be on the lookout from about Noon to 6 pm Tuesday.
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Been trying to hold off on an update to try and get some clarification on a couple items, but here is what it looks like now. Things are pretty much unchanged with the moderate risk for tornadoes in SW MS and an enhanced risk for much of the remainder of the state south of Hghway 82. SPC is still calling for a regional tornado outbreak, but there may be a mitifating factor. Storm mode looks to now be primarily a QLCS instead of discrete supercells which will lower...not elimindate...the tornado risk. However, there will still be line embedded rotation and some of those tornadoes could still be strong to violent. But keep in mind the HRRR is still forming discrete supercells ahead of the line along the I-55 corridor and moving them northeast. What I don't know is if they will be in a good enough environment to go tornadic. Odds are they will be, but remains to be seen. Another mitigating factor could be if storms form along the coast Tuesday morning. If that happens then that will help block some of the moisture return north and limit instability advancing into the warm sector.
The SPC updates around 12:30 today so I will be interesting to see if they expand the moderate risk to account for those discrete cells the HRRR is showing or if the possible coastal storms limit the storm potential.
My personal thoughts is that we will have a potentially significant severe weather event tomorrow starting mid to late morning for areas in SW MS along the river and then advancing across the state during the date and probably exiting around 6:00pm or so. If any discrete cells can form ahead of the QLCS they stand a very high chance of going tornadic so keep an eye on those especially. Otherwise, going to be contending with some line embedded rotation as the QLCS pushes through.
Hugh what is your impression of VentuSky as a reliable source. I know it's not as sophisticated as what you guys use but it sure is easy to use.
The Weather Channel just announced a TORCON of 7 for central and south Mississippi for tomorrow. Don't think I've seen a TORCON this high since the 2011 outbreak. Definitely need to be on the alert for tomorrow.
The whole torcon thing (like everything else associated with the weather channel) is just click bait. However, tomorrow is possibly shaping up to be a pretty serious day.
The weather service in Jackson is using language like "could be a significant event". We will see, but wording like that isn't used all that much.
The weather service in Jackson is using language like "could be a significant event". We will see, but wording like that isn't used all that much.
I hate to answer this way, but I don't know. 36 hours ago I would have said the worst will be well to our south, but the HRRR has been trending more and more discrete cells into this area. If that happens then there will be more of a tornado threat. As of right now, the main tornado threat is still expected to be along and south of I-20. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see that expanded a share further north when the next update comes out at midnight.
Good luck, folks. I'm in Austin for work this week--just got here--and am watching tornadoes outside of my hotel window up north near Round Rock. Not a pretty scene (and hope folks are OK). Hell of a time to hit right at the worst of rush hour.
Here's the latest from Jackson NWS:
Here's the latest from Jackson NWS:
The combination of instability and shear will
support supercells along and ahead of the front, curved hodographs
(strong speed and directional shear) at least initially supporting
discrete supercells as a storm mode. Strong southerly component to
flow aloft may support an increasingly linear storm mode as the
event progresses, with a focus for severe weather at that point
following any bowing segments along established QLCS structures.
Effective storm-relative helicity in exceedance of 300-400 m2/s2
will support quick intensification of rotation in storms, and
strong to significant tornadoes could occur from these storms. In
addition to tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
possible with severe storms tomorrow.
Here's the latest from Jackson NWS:
The combination of instability and shear will
support supercells along and ahead of the front, curved hodographs
(strong speed and directional shear) at least initially supporting
discrete supercells as a storm mode. Strong southerly component to
flow aloft may support an increasingly linear storm mode as the
event progresses, with a focus for severe weather at that point
following any bowing segments along established QLCS structures.
Effective storm-relative helicity in exceedance of 300-400 m2/s2
will support quick intensification of rotation in storms, and
strong to significant tornadoes could occur from these storms. In
addition to tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
possible with severe storms tomorrow.
How far south it gonna get crazy? South east Louisiana looks to be a little dicy. How far east is it likely to bad all the way across to Gulfport area along ms coast or just Baton Rouge up to Hattiesburg diagonally?
The Weather Channel's TorCon is a probability (guesstimate, really) of a tornado within 50 miles. The NWS uses, and has for some time, a probability to a tornado within 25 miles. So TorCon is really nothing new, even though it's routed as being so.
We have had several tornadoes area with damage in Round Rock, Jarrell, Taylor and Elgin. It's very rare for us to have tornadoes at all here. Hail Storms are much more common. Been a busy evening over here.
Y'all be careful tommorow.
Today's tornadoes in the Austin area had to be pretty close to IBMD. Hope all is well there. There appears to be quite a bit of damage in a residential area in Round Rock that's being shown on TWC now.
As much as I hate to answer this it's still too uncertain to tell. The immediate coast looks to miss the brunt and far north MS looks to miss the brunt. But everyone in between needs to be weather aware tomorrow. As it looks now central and southern MS look to be ground zero for the best tornado chances, but some of the models are trying to bring discrete cells further north into the 82 corridor. Just got to see how it evolves tomorrow morning.
Storm Center just updated things and the high risk has moved things east of I-35 and said the dry line is out west so we are watching them start just to our east and I mean just barely to our east. the HRRR model really was right one development.
HRRR is my go to model when it gets this close. And the 00z run is coming now and it has chosen violence for tomorrow.
Just looked at it on Pivotal Weather, yikes. SE Arkansas and Eastern Louisiana into Mississippi looks pretty damn frightening.
HRRR continuing to put very dangerous supercells further north along the Highway 82 corridor tomorrow. Would not be surprised to see the moderate risk area moved and/or expanded to account for this.
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