Less than 2 weeks - Who's your pick for the team that surprises the league?

pseudonym

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A&M , Elko is a good coach, plenty of talent .
Agree. I could see A&M having a 2013 Auburn type season with a first year coach. And unlike Auburn in 2013, they only have to win 10 games to have a magical season. All their toughest games are at home: Notre Dame, Missouri, LSU, and Texas. Split those at home and they have a chance to make the CFP. Just have to take care of business on the road.

No one is talking about them, but they will if they beat Notre Dame in week 1.
 
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Mr. Cook

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Alabama. Who will be more *underwhelming* than anticipated.
 

pseudonym

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Mathematically, there is guaranteed to be a “surprise” team in the CFP. We all know a G5 team has to be included, which means you realistically have to be top-11, not top-12, to make the CFP.

But did you know it is mathematically impossible for the preseason top 11 to make the CFP? Bonus points for who can show my work.
 

leeinator

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Missouri. As much as I hate to admit it Drinkwitz is a pretty 17ing good coach.
Drink is a slow builder. I said back when they hired him if Mizzou fans can have some patience, he will reward them down the road. Well, here we are. And I think he and Leach were both hired in the same year.
 

Perd Hapley

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Mathematically, there is guaranteed to be a “surprise” team in the CFP. We all know a G5 team has to be included, which means you realistically have to be top-11, not top-12, to make the CFP.

But did you know it is mathematically impossible for the preseason top 11 to make the CFP? Bonus points for who can show my work.
Its impossible because the Big 12 champ gets an auto bid (into the Top 4, no less), and there is not currently a Big 12 team or a G5 team in the Top 11.

So its pretty obvious from the get-go how 17ed this new format is. Assuring a CFP bid to each of the P4 champs is reasonable. Guaranteeing each a first round bye and Top 4 slot, however, is a bridge way too far. I also didn’t realize until just recently that Notre Dame can never be in the Top 4, or get the bye, until they finally nut up and join a conference. So that part of it is kind of funny.
 
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Bulldawg77

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Drink is a slow builder. I said back when they hired him if Mizzou fans can have some patience, he will reward them down the road. Well, here we are. And I think he and Leach were both hired in the same year.
Interesting take since he basically went portal heavy last two cycles. Not flaming but what lead or leads you to believe Drink is a slow builder of a program.
I for one think they struggle this year those higher expectations.
 
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OG Goat Holder

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How the hell can anybody really know?

That's what they've done by adding NIL and portal, they've killed the interest in the leadup to the season. Now, it's all about the season, and really just the actual entertainment of the game. I really don't care what happens outside of that, but no doubt I'll watch the games.

Maybe some still follow the program, but I don't see how that's practical.
 

Bulldawg77

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How the hell can anybody really know?

That's what they've done by adding NIL and portal, they've killed the interest in the leadup to the season. Now, it's all about the season, and really just the actual entertainment of the game. I really don't care what happens outside of that, but no doubt I'll watch the games.

Maybe some still follow the program, but I don't see how that's practical.
Why do you even post? Here you go again spamming another thread with these BS takes. Seriously how many times do we have to read and re read your same Ol ****?? We get it you don’t like college football anymore you hate the portal you hate NIL and you especially hate state in this current environment. No one cares what you think. You have got to be the most ignorant negative person on this site. You don’t give you don’t help you just spew Negativity.
 

GloryDawg

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Has to be A&m for being bette than expect and Ole Miss for the epic meltdown.
 

GloryDawg

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Why do you even post? Here you go again spamming another thread with these BS takes. Seriously how many times do we have to read and re read your same Ol ****?? We get it you don’t like college football anymore you hate the portal you hate NIL and you especially hate state in this current environment. No one cares what you think. You have got to be the most ignorant negative person on this site. You don’t give you don’t help you just spew Negativity.
We really don't know with portal and NIL. I mean Missouri went from a six-win team to a 11-win team just because of guys out of the portal. No one saw that coming. I do like college football. I still buy season tickets.
 
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columbiadawg2

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I say A&M as well. Elko can coach and has the pieces to make a playoff push. That said, we'll know week 1 if I'm right or wrong.
 

MStateDawg

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I know their schedule is brutal and it'll probably get Napier fired, but Florida is much better than most people are giving them credit for. Their QB, Graham Mertz, was damned good last year:
2024-08-19_08-19-52.PNG
 
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patdog

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Interesting take since he basically went portal heavy last two cycles. Not flaming but what lead or leads you to believe Drink is a slow builder of a program.
I for one think they struggle this year those higher expectations.
I think Missouri takes a pretty big step backwards this fall. Edit, looking at their schedule, maybe not. How the hell did our schedule manage to get even tougher while theirs is still cupcake city?
 
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patdog

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I know their schedule is brutal and it'll probably get Napier fired, but Florida is much better than most people are giving them credit for. Their QB, Graham Mertz, was damned good last year:
View attachment 629880
I think people expecting us to beat Florida, or even be competitive with them, are in for a rude awakening.
 

85Bears

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Petrino is in a tricky situation. He has to be good enough to get the job after Pittman is fired. But not so good that Pittman doesn't get fired.
Arkansas has good talent at the skill positions, with a pretty good O line, their problem is they have no depth. A couple of injuries on the O line or at qb and they will crater. If they stay healthy they are going to put up points and upset a couple of good teams.
 

MStateDawg

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Arkansas has good talent at the skill positions, with a pretty good O line, their problem is they have no depth. A couple of injuries on the O line or at qb and they will crater. If they stay healthy they are going to put up points and upset a couple of good teams.
Their QB put up these whelming numbers last year against a Mountain West schedule:
2024-08-19_08-51-44.PNG

What's he gonna do vs an SEC schedule?
I think Pittman will have plenty of time to drink "cold beer" come November.
 
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OG Goat Holder

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I think people expecting us to beat Florida, or even be competitive with them, are in for a rude awakening.
Will likely be like 2019. We'll beat the teams we're better than, have disappointing losses vs. similar teams, and just be beaten down vs. the good teams. AZ State, Florida, Arkansas - I do think those are going to be tough for our sheep to stomach. I remember how awful it was to watch Kansas State and Tennessee in 2019 - except I think we may have less talent overall than back then.
 

85Bears

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Their QB put up these whelming numbers last year against a Mountain West schedule:
View attachment 629904

What's he gonna do vs an SEC schedule?
I think Pittman will have plenty of time to drink "cold beer" come November.
He was hand picked by Petrino who recruited him out of high school. 6-6 and runs a sub 4.5 forty. he has good players around him. I think if he stays healthy Petrino will get good production out of him.
 

patdog

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So, basically the portal helped everyone in the SEC except us…? Is that what you’re saying?
Huh? Not at all. But Florida is easily a much more talented team than us. But for the record, our portal class is ranked #14 in the SEC, and that's without taking into account portal losses which we had several big ones. So it probably helped most other SEC teams more than it helped us.
 
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Bulldawg77

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He was hand picked by Petrino who recruited him out of high school. 6-6 and runs a sub 4.5 forty. he has good players around him. I think if he stays healthy Petrino will get good production out of him.
I disagree AR may have the least talented roster other than Vanderbilt. Pittman is also saying they will go under center more this year. So much for getting the QB outside of the pocket
 

Bulldawg77

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Huh? Not at all. But Florida is easily a much more talented team than us. But for the record, our portal class is ranked #14 in the SEC, and that's without taking into account portal losses which we had several big ones. So it probably helped most other SEC teams more than it helped us.
You keep saying big portal losses who were the losses we didn’t replace?
 

Maroon Eagle

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I think people expecting us to beat Florida, or even be competitive with them, are in for a rude awakening.
It’s not so much that we’d be competitive with them as that Florida is by many accounts the second most likely SEC team on our schedule when it comes to probabilities of MSU winning games.

They’re a bellwether by our more optimistic fans on whether State goes to a bowl.
 
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SoTexDawg

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We replaced Will Rogers with Blake Shapen at QB ---NET POSITIVE FOR MISSISSIPPI STATE
We replaced Ryland Goede with Seydou Traore/Justin Ball at TE -- NET POSITIVE FOR MISSISSIPPI STATE
We replaced Percy Lewis with Makylan Pounders at LT -- NET POSITIVE FOR MISSISSIPPI STATE
We replaced Steven Losoya with Jacoby Jackson/Marlon Martinez at RG -- NET POSITIVE FOR MISSISSIPPI STATE
We replaced Zavion Thomas with Kevin Coleman at WR/KR -- PUSH
We replaced Woody Marks with Davon Booth/Johnnie Daniels -- NET POSITIVE FOR USC
We replaced Justin Robinson with Trent Hudson/Jordan Mosley at WR -- NET POSITIVE FOR MISSISSIPPI STATE
We replaced DeCarlos Nicholson with DeAgo Brumfield/Traveon Wright -- PUSH (Maybe USC gets the nod, TBD)

The transfer portal haul and changeover for MSU was absollutely critical at OL, WR, TE, QB, RB and CB

I think we really only failed at not getting an EDGE...but it sounds like Branden Jennings is stepping up at JACK LB and Joe Head Jr. is coming along at DE
 
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TrueMaroonGrind

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It’s not so much that we’d be competitive with them as that Florida is by many accounts the second most likely SEC team on our schedule when it comes to probabilities of MSU winning games.

They’re a bellwether by our more optimistic fans on whether State goes to a bowl.
They do seem to be our 2nd most likely SEC win after Arkansas. Then followed by Mizzou and TAMU. Florida is leaps and bounds more talented than Arky. This schedule is brutal. 6 wins would be a great first season for Lebby. At this point, I’m not expecting it.
 
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patdog

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We replaced Will Rogers with Blake Shapen at QB ---NET POSITIVE FOR MISSISSIPPI STATE
We replaced Ryland Goede with Seydou Traore/Justin Ball at TE -- NET POSITIVE FOR MISSISSIPPI STATE
We replaced Percy Lewis with Makylan Pounders at LT -- NET POSITIVE FOR MISSISSIPPI STATE
We replaced Steven Losoya with Jacoby Jackson/Marlon Martinez at RG -- NET POSITIVE FOR MISSISSIPPI STATE
We replaced Zavion Thomas with Kevin Coleman at WR/KR -- PUSH
We replaced Woody Marks with Davon Booth/Johnnie Daniels -- NET POSITIVE FOR USC
We replaced Justin Robinson with Trent Hudson/Jordan Mosley at WR -- NET POSITIVE FOR MISSISSIPPI STATE
We replaced DeCarlos Nicholson with DeAgo Brumfield/Traveon Wright -- PUSH (Maybe USC gets the nod, TBD)

The transfer portal haul and changeover for MSU was absollutely critical at OL, WR, TE, QB, RB and CB

I think we really only failed at not getting an EDGE...but it sounds like Branden Jennings is stepping up at JACK LB and Joe Head Jr. is coming along at DE
All of those remain to be seen, one way or the other.
 

85Bears

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It’s not so much that we’d be competitive with them as that Florida is by many accounts the second most likely SEC team on our schedule when it comes to probabilities of MSU winning games.

They’re a bellwether by our more optimistic fans on whether State goes to a bowl.
Yes i look at it as some are overly fixated on Arkansas as they see that as crucial to avoiding going 0-8 in the sec.

petrino without jimbo hampering him should be a big upgrade assuming they stay healthy. I see them going 7-5/6-6 unless their O line gets decimated with injuries then all bets are off. Good skill positions pretty decent defense. No depth on o line
 
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