Life Threatening Severe Weather Event Today

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

If this ends up busting and I look like a royal idiot for that thread title I will face the music for all the insults and ridicule you care to throw at me. I'm a big boy and can take it. But the latest wording from the SPC is scary. Potential tornado outbreak is looking likely late this afternoon and evening. The graphics haven't changed much so not posting them now. If an upgrade to a high risk happens I will update with it. This outbreak, if it happens, could have multiple strong to violent tornadoes. There is one model solution that is not so bullish, but SPC is saying the more extreme solution seems more plausible at this time. Per the 06Z HRRR, supercells will begin forming along the river around 5:00-6:00pm and move NE. These will quickly go severe and most likely tornadic. Once this event starts it is going to be with us until after midnight.
If the HRRR verifies, then particularly the NW portions of the state will see multiple tornadoes, some of which could be strong and a couple that could be violent if any discrete cells can get out on their own and sustain themselves. Anybody that has interests west of I-55 and north of I-20 need to pay very close attention today. Do not dismiss any warnings.

Let's all hope in 24 hours I'm here with all of you telling me I'm a drama queen over hyping events. I'll take that gladly over what has the potential to happen today.

I know a couple of us from the team will be out actively chasing this event so let us be the idiots today being out in this weather.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

 

[Augustus McCrae]

Thanks HBP. Y’all be careful out there.

 

[Grove Sh.tter]

Be careful man. I truly appreciate your insights and updates. I share the tendency to err on the side of caution, and that can be misconstrued as "fear-mongering," but I know you are being helpful, not alarmist.

May God have mercy on the south tonight.

 

[Baddmann]

Thanks for the update HBP! We will be in Starkville this weekend for the Vandy series staying in the RV (We have access to a storm shelter). Will definitely keep an eye out until midnight or so.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Thanks for the heads up. You just keep doing what you do. There are a bunch of us that at least half assed understand how this works...we got your back.

 

[DonDon.sixpack]

Thanks for the heads up

 

[OldVideoGuy]

What are we looking like in the Tupelo/Starkville area in terms of timing and intensity?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Latest runs of the HRRR coming in much less impressive. Showing more of a line only mode than discrete mode. If this holds will mean a reduced tornado threat.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

What are we looking like in the Tupelo/Starkville area in terms of timing and intensity?

Timing looks to be 10:00-midnight. Intensity up in the air. Models coming in this morning less impressive. Don't know if a trend or one off.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I would just pay attention to everything today because there is still too much up in the air. There is too much potential volatility possible this afternoon and this evening. It's pretty certain there's gonna be some severe weather... just how severe we don't know, but it's just part of the game.

 

[msudawg12]

Selfish post:
I know everything thats bad has been showing north of I20, but any chance some of this has severe potential near Meridian?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Selfish post:
I know everything thats bad has been showing north of I20, but any chance some of this has severe potential near Meridian?

Meridian is in the slight risk so it's possible, although may be noticing a slight trend north.

 

[msudawg12]

Meridian is in the slight risk so it's possible, although may be noticing a slight trend north.

danke

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

I'm now headed west to stage somewhere in the delta. Probably Leland or Indianola. Right now just a pretty day but it won't last. SPC at least toying with a high risk upgrade as models are trending back towards a more discrete solution. If you see me come say or flip me off. I'm good with either.
Gentle reminder: once things get cooking I plan on live streaming on our patreon site.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

 

[Drebin]

I'm now headed west to stage somewhere in the delta. Probably Leland or Indianola. Right now just a pretty day but it won't last. SPC at least toying with a high risk upgrade as models are trending back towards a more discrete solution. If you see me come say or flip me off. I'm good with either.
Gentle reminder: once things get cooking I plan on live streaming on our patreon site.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

Soundings just northeast of Greenville look downright scary.

Be safe out there. Don't get caught up in the storm.....a tornado might cause thousands of dollars of improvements to that Dodge.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Be careful I'm watching the feeds and RadarScope from my easy chair.




Looks like you will be in the hot spot

 

[Pink Floyd.sixpack]

I'm now headed west to stage somewhere in the delta. Probably Leland or Indianola. Right now just a pretty day but it won't last. SPC at least toying with a high risk upgrade as models are trending back towards a more discrete solution. If you see me come say or flip me off. I'm good with either.
Gentle reminder: once things get cooking I plan on live streaming on our patreon site.

www.patreon.com/NMSCAS

I’m my best Helen Hunt voice….” You got full coverage on that truck?”

 

[TrueMaroonGrind]

Of course we have plans and someone to watch the kids for the first time this year tonight. I guess we’ll come home early and hunker down. Looking scary.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Ok ladies and gentlemen. Storms now starting to develop down into LA and southern MS. These could be the beginnings of the discrete supercells and tornado event. SPC is considering the issuance of a PDS tornado watch as we get later into the afternoon. Prime tornado window is 5:00pm to midnight. I'm currently sitting in Leland waiting to see what develops.

 

[cling84]

Definitely reminds me too much of the February 21,1971 outbreak..

 

[SyonaraStanz]

Ok ladies and gentlemen. Storms now starting to develop down into LA and southern MS. These could be the beginnings of the discrete supercells and tornado event. SPC is considering the issuance of a PDS tornado watch as we get later into the afternoon. Prime tornado window is 5:00pm to midnight. I'm currently sitting in Leland waiting to see what develops.

Lillo’s just opened. Grab you a pizza for the road.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

Good luck, looks nasty.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Reed Timmer has caught up with a big tornado at Rolling Fork.

 

[3000lbchicken]

Yeah that one looks nasty. AFB radar in Aberdeen is trash.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

Watching Weather Channel, Rolling Fork has had some heavy damage.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Roiling Fork was demolished everything that storm has encountered has been trashed There's another storm north of there, headed toward the Oxford/Water Valley area. If you or someone you know, lives in either in front of either of these two storm y'all need to get out of the way

This is the storm that came through Rolling Fork

 

[SyonaraStanz]

My friend in Silver City said his house is destroyed. I’ve heard from friends in Rolling Fork saying several houses demolished and a couple businesses as well.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Got a friend who just got into Rolling Fork. Said it’s awful.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

There's another tornado signature right behind this storm.

 

[3000lbchicken]

Winona hunker down.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

This tornado is not stopping and is heading towards, Winona, and Eupora

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

Heard elsewhere they were seeking Rescue and ambulance help in Rolling Fork.

Looks like it maybe went just South of Winona. (not sure of that )

 

[horshack.sixpack]

My friend in Silver City said his house is destroyed. I’ve heard from friends in Rolling Fork saying several houses demolished and a couple businesses as well.

Been there. Tell him to hang in there. Hope all he lost was possessions.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

My friend in Silver City said his house is destroyed. I’ve heard from friends in Rolling Fork saying several houses demolished and a couple businesses as well.

I'm at Silver City. What I have seen will haunt me forever. They need your prayers badly. That's all I can say.

 

[ronpolk]

Man that video is terrible. I hope that is an isolated area and not the whole town. Looks like complete devastation in that video.

 

[3000lbchicken]

Houston, Okalona, Amory, Aberdeen, Smithville time to get to your safe place and listen to your local news

 

[Herbert Nenninger]

Tornado emergency for Amory

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

That's a big tornado

 

[3000lbchicken]

this is bad