NCAA Tournament: Uh, Possibly, Maybe, I Don't Know

[615dawg]

The sweep of Missouri was much needed for the trajectory of Mississippi State basketball. It ended a four game skid, and put State in a tie for 5th place in the SEC. If the SEC Tournament started today, we'd be the No. 8 seed, but the No. 5 seed is in actual realistic play.

So let's look at where we stand.

We are 47th in the NET. We are 2-8 in Quadrant 1 games, 1-1 in Q2, 7-2 in Q3 and 6-0 Q4.

The good news is that we have no really bad losses and we have played a good schedule.

The bad news is that we haven't taken care of opportunities. If we were 4-6 in Q1 games instead of 2-8, we'd be looking at a team that would be a lock for the tournament and trying to play its way up in seeding. Holding on to the lead against Colorado State or Florida. A big shot at Kentucky, not melting against LSU - several opportunities lost for this team.

We have four remaining games.

at South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Auburn
at Texas A&M

Auburn and A&M are both Q1 opportunities. Vanderbilt at home is a must win, no matter what. Completing the season sweep against South Carolina helps in the SEC race.

Last year, the lowest ranked team in the NET to receive an at-large bid was #51 Virginia Tech. #47 Utah State got a bid as well. The top 42 teams in the NET ranking all made the NCAA Tournament - that was the cut off. So it can be assumed that if we can get to the top 40 of the NET, we have a good shot at getting into the tournament. So in 2 weeks + the SEC Tournament, how can you go from #47 to top 40?

The simplest way is to just win. Beating both South Carolina and Vanderbilt would be worth anywhere from 5-8 spots. Let's be conservative and say that a 2-0 week this week puts us at #42. Of course dropping both of these could drop us into the mid-50s and completely out of contention. Losing at South Carolina and beating Vanderbilt keeps us in the 46-49 range.

The Auburn game is a low risk/high reward game. Losing to Auburn is going to be +1 to -1, but beating Auburn could be worth 5 spots by itself. Texas A&M is similar, losing doesn't hurt you as much as winning helps you. -2 to +3 is the range in that game.

Finishing the season 4-0 is going to put us in the #35 range. That's on the 9/10 seed line. If we were to go 3-1 with the loss being Auburn or Texas A&M, we would be in the #39-#40 range, its been good enough in the past, but its right on the border, so we'd need a win in the SEC Tournament to feel safe.

 

[dawgstudent]

I'm not even worried about it until we play Auburn. At that point - I'll give a **** about winning or losing in basketball.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Can you show me the math behind how many spots you say we'll go up or down with each win or loss? I'm not doubting you necessarily, but it doesn't really align with my observations of how our ranking has moved this season.

 

[PuebloDawg]

But we don’t have to beat Auburn to make the tourney. Seems we are probably in with 3-1 and a win in SEC tourney, unless we lose to Vandy.

 

[msstate7]

Can you show me the math behind how many spots you say we'll go up or down with each win or loss? I'm not doubting you necessarily, but it doesn't really align with my observations of how our ranking has moved this season.

It's impossible to know bc other teams factor in.

 

[johnson86-1]

But we don’t have to beat Auburn to make the tourney. Seems we are probably in with 3-1 and a win in SEC tourney, unless we lose to Vandy.

Well, based on past performance, this is going to go down one of three ways. 1) We are going to show up completely unprepared on the road at USCe and pretty much torpedo our tournament hopes. Or 2) We are going to play really well at USCe and then give it away down the stretch. Or 3) We are going to acctually pull off the road win at USCe to suck people back in before shitting the bed against Vandy.

Regardless, I think Dawgstudent's approach is sound. There's no point in worrying about it unless and until we get to Auburn without another loss.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, you've got boobs. Fool me a few dozen times, you are a Mississippi State athletics team, but even then, sometime between the 36th and 136th time, you're not going to fool me again (at least until next year).

 

[paindonthurt]

What happens if we are just 9-0 and Q3 and everything else is the same?

 

[Seinfeld]

Is it bad that the one thought that keeps going through my head is… if this team seriously has a resume that’s good enough to get into the dance, we shouldn’t ever have an excuse to miss out on it?

 

[paindonthurt]

I have no idea how we still have a chance. Still not sure we do but whatever.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

It's impossible to know bc other teams factor in.

For sure. But even beyond that, I don't think 2 wins over mediocre teams would bump us 5-8 spots in NET. In RPI, sure, but our NET rating has been extremely static all year, since it's based on "efficiency" rather than just wins and losses like the RPI was. 2 games where we do what we're supposed to shouldn't move the needle much on an entire season's resume.

 

[dawgstudent]

But we don’t have to beat Auburn to make the tourney. Seems we are probably in with 3-1 and a win in SEC tourney, unless we lose to Vandy.

I disagree. I think we have to beat Auburn to make it unless we win the SEC Tourney.

 

[msstate7]

For sure. But even beyond that, I don't think 2 wins over mediocre teams would bump us 5-8 spots in NET. In RPI, sure, but our NET rating has been extremely static all year, since it's based on "efficiency" rather than just wins and losses like the RPI was. 2 games where we do what we're supposed to shouldn't move the needle much on an entire season's resume.

Q2 and borderline Q2 games this week

 

[msstate7]

I disagree. I think we have to beat Auburn to make it unless we win the SEC Tourney.

Q2, borderline Q2, and Q1 wins in that scenario. I think it would work

 

[615dawg]

Can you show me the math behind how many spots you say we'll go up or down with each win or loss? I'm not doubting you necessarily, but it doesn't really align with my observations of how our ranking has moved this season.

Its impossible to know for sure, but consider that last week, we jumped 6 spots for beating Missouri twice and losing at Alabama. That's a Q1 loss where we dropped 1 spot, then a 3 spot jump for the home win and a 4 spot jump for the road win. The week before, we blew two Q1 opportunities and dropped four spots and the week before that we were +2 for beating South Carolina and losing to Arkansas.

Winning against Alabama earlier in the season, a Q1 opportunity gave us a +6. The week we lost to Kentucky and Texas Tech we actually were +3. Two win weeks against average teams have typically been +5 for teams with similar profiles. Florida went +4 for beating Auburn. Arkansas went +2 for beating Auburn and losing to Alabama in the same week.

 

[615dawg]

Without beating Auburn, I'm not sure we are in the top 40 at the end of the season. I think if we have to go 3-1, beating Vanderbilt, Auburn and splitting SC and A&M is the best route.

There is no guarantee that top 40 will give us a spot, although 42 is the historical cutoff. Like I said, 51 made it last year, but they had 3 Q1 wins, but we aren't making it unless we are top 40.

 

[615dawg]

Except for the fact that we went from 53 to 47 this week by beating the same mediocre team twice and losing a close game on the road at a Q1. The NET allows for a greater jump. Consider Arkansas.

Arkansas has gone up 68 spots in the NET since SEC play began. In the RPI, they have only gone up 41. The NET offers teams bigger rewards for wins. If we win both this week, we'll likely be sitting around 42 with Auburn coming to town. It will be a huge opportunity game.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Its impossible to know for sure, but consider that last week, we jumped 6 spots for beating Missouri twice and losing at Alabama. That's a Q1 loss where we dropped 1 spot, then a 3 spot jump for the home win and a 4 spot jump for the road win.

That's not accurate. We were 46 Sunday morning and are 47 now. We dropped one spot after last night's win. It's right there on the NCAA Net rankings site.

 

[KentuckyDawg13]

NET is based on five factors: Team Value Index, Net Effeciency, Winning Percentage, Adjusted Win Percentage and Scoring Margin.


Team Value Index is an algorithm set up to reward teams who beat other good teams. It's a results-oriented component of NET and only factors in results of games played against Division I opponents.


Net Efficiency is a calculation of offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency. The formula for offensive efficiency is set up as follows:


Field goal attempts minus offenisve rebounds plus turnovers plus (.475 x free-throw attempts) = total number of possessions


Total points divided by total number of possessions. The number produced represents a team's offensive effiency.


The formula for defensive efficiency is set up as follows:


Opponent's field goal attempts minus opponent's offenisve rebounds plus opponent's turnovers plus (.475 x opponent's free-throw attempts) equals total number of opponent's possessions


Opponent's total points is divided by opponent's total number of possessions. The number produced represents a team's defensive effiency.


Offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency equals a team's Net Efficiency.


From https://www.si.com/college/2018/11/04/college-basketball-rankings-net-system-explain

 

[PartTimeGenius]

So, essentially, NONE of those "must win" games we have played this year (and lost) have been "must win games". More like "need to" win.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

That's the old formula. The last three things on that list have been eliminated. It's just team value and efficiency now.

 

[Seinfeld]

I won’t pretend to know what goes on behind closed doors on selection Sunday, but this just feels to me like our NET rating is like a pre-requisite for a job interview. It’s going to get us up to the point where we’re at least being talked about, but at some point, decision makers are going to look at the resume and say… sorry, they had opportunities to make a statement, but they blew dang near all of them. Pass

 

[msstate7]

That's not accurate. We were 46 Sunday morning and are 47 now. We dropped one spot after last night's win. It's right there on the NCAA Net rankings site.

You're looking at yesterday. He's going today from last Sunday

 

[MSUDC11]

So, essentially, NONE of those "must win" games we have played this year (and lost) have been "must win games". More like "need to" win.

I mean if you want to get technical, nothing in the regular season is must win if you win your conference tournament.

 

[MSUDC11]

It’s all good in theory but it’s hard to put much faith in this team to do what it needs to do. Two wins against a terrible Mizzou team are fine and dandy, but we have a tough last two weeks.

I’ll be shocked if we go 3-1 or better. I kinda think 1-3 is the most likely outcome. I’m not picking us to win either road game and not counting on a win against Auburn either.

 

[BonzoGoesToCollege]

I have no idea how we still have a chance. Still not sure we do but whatever.

I honestly don’t think we have a shot. Need to win 3 of the last 4 and at least 1 in the tourney. Guaranteed they’ll crap the bed against either Vandy or South Carolina. We’re just playing for NIT seeding.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

He said we got a four point bump for the road win at Missouri. What did I misinterpret about that?

 

[onewoof]

I disagree. I think we have to beat Auburn to make it unless we win the SEC Tourney.

We have to win out and beat Auburn. And even then it's a maybe.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

We'll make the NCAA tournament this year when..."my penis freezes over."

 

[msstate7]

He said we got a four point bump for the road win at Missouri. What did I misinterpret about that?

You didn't. I was wrong. I was concentrating on the 6-spot jump, which I think is correct. Apologies

 

[DawgatAuburn]

It wouldn't be the first time I failed at reading.

 

[dawgstudent]

That's the old formula. The last three things on that list have been eliminated. It's just team value and efficiency now.

So when Howland says we need to win by 10+ - he hasn't kept up?

 

[msstate7]

So when Howland says we need to win by 10+ - he hasn't kept up?

That's what they say, but when we played Kentucky, ark, bama, and lsu tough on the road, we were hardly punished at all... in fact, we gotta bump after Kentucky. Now when we got drilled by TT, we dropped like a rock.

 

[8dog]

Correct. Efficiency kind of acts like margin of
victory but the old 10 point net max is gone

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Or else he thinks we haven't. But probably the former.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

In the TTU game, we got destroyed in the efficiency numbers (and on the scoreboard). For that game, our offensive efficiency was about .7173 or in KenPom terms 71.7. That number would be last in all of D1. So we played worse than the worst team that day. Defensively we were not much better. We were ~115.8 which would have been 350th, so better than only eight teams.

 

[msstate7]

In the TTU game, we got destroyed in the efficiency numbers (and on the scoreboard). For that game, our offensive efficiency was about .7173 or in KenPom terms 71.7. That number would be last in all of D1. So we played worse than the worst team that day. Defensively we were not much better. We were ~115.8 which would have been 350th, so better than only eight teams.

I didn't realize it was that bad. Still, for a bubble team wouldn't be beneficial to leave your foot on the gas to pad efficiency stats as much as possible?

 

[archdog]

But we don’t have to beat Auburn to make the tourney. Seems we are probably in with 3-1 and a win in SEC tourney, unless we lose to Vandy.

Well, there are like 28 automatic qualifiers that get in the 68-40 spots. You have to have an rpi close to 40 to get in. We have games to play, but man we 17ed outselves the last three weeks. So bad, I stopped paying attention.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

From ESPN -

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...e-month-march-madness-bracket-selection-drama

For those without ESPN+

Mississippi State Bulldogs
Welcome back, Bulldogs. The bubble wasn't the same without you. Back-to-back victories over Missouri might not dazzle the committee, but this body of work has shaped up nicely. You say you have wins over Alabama and Arkansas, you're 16-11 overall and you have a .500 record in the strong SEC? We say that'll do. We're watching you, Mississippi State, and that's a big game coming up at South Carolina. The Gamecocks (16-10, 7-7) are starting to get some bubbly thoughts of their own. (added Feb. 21)

 

[dickiedawg]

Lunardi hasn’t updated, but during the game Sunday they showed that according to him, a win would put us in the “next four out.” That’s a lot of ground to make up with not a lot of great opportunities left.
It doesn’t feel like we can make up that ground without a lot of help or a win over Auburn.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

I didn't realize it was that bad. Still, for a bubble team wouldn't be beneficial to leave your foot on the gas to pad efficiency stats as much as possible?

It seems as such.