Now that baseball is mercifully over......

[thekimmer]

What do you expect to see happen in the next month or so and what is a reasonable expectation for next season?

Obviously priority 1 is shopping hard for arms in the portal. We MUST find 1 or 2 weekend starters and 2 or 3 bullpen arms. We also will need to get at least 3 position players as well. We prolly need a catcher, a middle infielder, and at least 1 outfielder.

Those who are coming back have GOT to take a step forward. We cannot walk batters at the clip we did this past season. At the plate Clark needs to raise his average 50 points and Hines reduce his Ks. Young guys like Alford and Downs have to step up. We MUST find a team leader somewhere too. Our coaching staff also has got to step it up in the fall and offseason getting players mentally as well as physically ready to play.

As far as expectations. I keep holding out the hope that if you can lose it all so quickly you can surely regain it just as quickly but my reasonable expectations are that we make a regional as a 2 seed. A very optimistic outcome would be hosting as a 13-16 seed but see that as a longshot.

Other thoughts?

 

[8dog]

I think making a regional next year should get Lem
coach of the year (and yes I realize you can argue some/all/whatever is of his own making)

 

[thekimmer]

I think making a regional next year should get Lem
coach of the year (and yes I realize you can argue some/all/whatever is of his own making)

Maybe, but I think missing a regional would have him on the verge of losing his job.

 

[8dog]

It would certainly put a lot of pressure on 2024. But even with two solid portal arms and a portal catcher I think it’s an uphill battle.

 

[thekimmer]

It would certainly put a lot of pressure on 2024. But even with two solid portal arms and a portal catcher I think it’s an uphill battle.

Maybe, but then look at 2015. We were 24-30 and 8-22 SEC then won the conference and hosted a regional and super the very next year. That was the days before the portal too. Not saying it will happen again but it certainly could and outside of the polk II debacle and the long climb out of it, always has happened for MSU baseball. Truth be told I think Lemonis is feeling some heat right now although it is mostly self induced and not close to job threatening yet.

 

[thatsbaseball]

I think the next few months will determine Lemonis' coaching destiny at MSU. Laying another turd like he did this year will not be tolerated as well as many think it will. Our baseball fanbase is savvy enough to understand the difference in "that's baseball" and "that sucks".

edited to ad: I'm not stating any specific goals other than very noticeable improvement on the field and in program direction.

 

[patdog]

I don't think we necessarily have to make a regional for him to keep his job, but we definitely have to be laying a solid foundation for a pretty good run if we miss a regional. Another year like this one and he'll be fired for sure.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Maybe, but then look at 2015. We were 24-30 and 8-22 SEC then won the conference and hosted a regional and super the very next year. That was the days before the portal too. Not saying it will happen again but it certainly could and outside of the polk II debacle and the long climb out of it, always has happened for MSU baseball. Truth be told I think Lemonis is feeling some heat right now although it is mostly self induced and not close to job threatening yet.

It's like people are intentionally blocking this out of their minds. We are not devoid of talent. The reasons this season tanked are very clear. This is similar to 2015.

And it's not just us. Arkansas was awful in 2016. Hosted a regional in 2017. National seed in 2018. And they didn't even have the transfer portal to help them.

Our fans have gone nuts.

 

[maroonmania]

What do you expect to see happen in the next month or so and what is a reasonable expectation for next season?

Obviously priority 1 is shopping hard for arms in the portal. We MUST find 1 or 2 weekend starters and 2 or 3 bullpen arms. We also will need to get at least 3 position players as well. We prolly need a catcher, a middle infielder, and at least 1 outfielder.

Those who are coming back have GOT to take a step forward. We cannot walk batters at the clip we did this past season. At the plate Clark needs to raise his average 50 points and Hines reduce his Ks. Young guys like Alford and Downs have to step up. We MUST find a team leader somewhere too. Our coaching staff also has got to step it up in the fall and offseason getting players mentally as well as physically ready to play.

As far as expectations. I keep holding out the hope that if you can lose it all so quickly you can surely regain it just as quickly but my reasonable expectations are that we make a regional as a 2 seed. A very optimistic outcome would be hosting as a 13-16 seed but see that as a longshot.

Other thoughts?

Agree that we need at LEAST 4 to 5 pitchers from the portal that can contribute next season just to get us back to being competitive in the SEC. The only 2 reasonably productive guys on the pitching staff that we know will be returning are Cade Smith and Pico Kohn. And we don't currently know the extent of the injury Cade suffered. We need significant production jumps from guys like Fristoe, Tepper, Walker and Cheatham but I don't know how much we can depend on that? Auger and Simmons (if he returns) probably won't be ready from injury recovery. This is about as desperate a situation as I can ever remember for an upcoming season in terms of our pitching production. Hard to believe we are in this kind of dire predicament. If Hunt returns that would help as well but I'm not counting on that.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

Guys who either made a big jump, or were brought in for the 2016 team
Robson - Jr made a big jump and left early
Gridley - So made a jump from his freshman all-sec performance
Humphries - JR made a big jump and left early
Mangum - FR came in a was an AA
Rooker - rSo made a huge jump
Kruger and Lowe - Jucos who were impacts
Zac Houston - Jr huge jump
Pilkington - Fr impact player
Dakota Hudson - Jr huge jump
Basically, you had two impact freshman in Mangum and Pilk, and two impact Juco guys. The rest were developed over the summer and make big jumps from the '15 team. I'm sure there are others I'm not thinking about, but my point is you had 3 new guys in the field, and one Fr pitcher who contributed.
Do we have those guys that will make big jumps next year? Specifically in the rotation and pen? I don't see it.

 

[Seinfeld]

If there’s a man for a job of this magnitude, I think we’ve got the right one. However, I also think that people need to stop pointing to the A&M situation as of it’s some sort of norm. They’re the exception to the standard, and a fairly extreme one at that

We’re in a weird situation because I actually agree with those saying that we weren’t THAT many players away from being respectable this year. At the same time, though, when you combine our poor performance, atrocious pitching, lack of development, and assumed turnover into one package, I’ll honestly be astonished with a 2 seed next year. I think we’ve got to work on simply getting back to the tournament, and I’ll let the chips fall where they may from there

 

[johnson86-1]

It's like people are intentionally blocking this out of their minds. We are not devoid of talent. The reasons this season tanked are very clear. This is similar to 2015.

And it's not just us. Arkansas was awful in 2016. Hosted a regional in 2017. National seed in 2018. And they didn't even have the transfer portal to help them.

Our fans have gone nuts.

We're not devoid of talent, but I'm not sure we have any high end talent either. If we get some studs in the portal, I definitely think we have guys who could get better and be good supporting players. But I'm not sure which young players on the team are going to make a big enough jump that they can be our better players and us still be good.

Certainly have some pitchers with the talent everywhere but between the ears, but just not sure it's likely that we will have enough people figure things out that we can be good without getting stud transfers.

 

[Smoked Toag]

We're not devoid of talent, but I'm not sure we have any high end talent either. If we get some studs in the portal, I definitely think we have guys who could get better and be good supporting players. But I'm not sure which young players on the team are going to make a big enough jump that they can be our better players and us still be good.

Certainly have some pitchers with the talent everywhere but between the ears, but just not sure it's likely that we will have enough people figure things out that we can be good without getting stud transfers.

Splitting hairs, and you can view it however you want to. Bottom line is you get the best players you can, hope to host a regional, and let the dominos fall. We aren't far off with that. ****, with Sims and Simmons we are on the hosting bubble.

Yes, the season spiraled at the end, when all the factors started compounding. But with a few more wins in the early/middle of the schedule, things turn out differently.

If you want to believe we have a multi-year rebuild going on, have at it. I'm done trying to convince people that it's not the case.

 

[ronpolk]

It's like people are intentionally blocking this out of their minds. We are not devoid of talent. The reasons this season tanked are very clear. This is similar to 2015.

And it's not just us. Arkansas was awful in 2016. Hosted a regional in 2017. National seed in 2018. And they didn't even have the transfer portal to help them.

Our fans have gone nuts.

Exactly. Hell this team was not as awful bad as some want to make it out to be. An absolute **** show from a bullpen standpoint but starting pitching was not complete dog ****. If this team had 2 reliable bullpen guys we would have 5-8 more wins.

Now I expect a lot of new faces but I also expect guys like Fristoe and Kohn will be better next year.

 

[ronpolk]

Guys who either made a big jump, or were brought in for the 2016 team
Robson - Jr made a big jump and left early
Gridley - So made a jump from his freshman all-sec performance
Humphries - JR made a big jump and left early
Mangum - FR came in a was an AA
Rooker - rSo made a huge jump
Kruger and Lowe - Jucos who were impacts
Zac Houston - Jr huge jump
Pilkington - Fr impact player
Dakota Hudson - Jr huge jump
Basically, you had two impact freshman in Mangum and Pilk, and two impact Juco guys. The rest were developed over the summer and make big jumps from the '15 team. I'm sure there are others I'm not thinking about, but my point is you had 3 new guys in the field, and one Fr pitcher who contributed.
Do we have those guys that will make big jumps next year? Specifically in the rotation and pen? I don't see it.

Did you think Hudson and Houston were going to make a big jump? What about Stratton between his sophomore and junior year or even a guy like Renfroe. You guys act like it’s uncommon for freshman and sophomore to struggle then be good as a junior. We have tons of examples.

 

[thatsbaseball]

If we're that close, what do you think are reasonable goals for next year ?

 

[thekimmer]

It's that end of season death spiral that I have struggled with....

Splitting hairs, and you can view it however you want to. Bottom line is you get the best players you can, hope to host a regional, and let the dominos fall. We aren't far off with that. ****, with Sims and Simmons we are on the hosting bubble.

Yes, the season spiraled at the end, when all the factors started compounding. But with a few more wins in the early/middle of the schedule, things turn out differently.

If you want to believe we have a multi-year rebuild going on, have at it. I'm done trying to convince people that it's not the case.

We went into columbia MO with the wind at our backs after taking 2 from mississippi in oxford. We parlayed that into a rare friday night old fashioned country butt whooping on the road to go 9-10 in the SEC on the penultimate day of April. We looked poised to make a run and salvage the season but instead we incredibly failed to win another conference game! I am still asking myself what in the sam hill happened! Was it the return blowout that mizz applied the next day followed by a crushing walk-off that shattered our confidence? I know the competition increased as well but 0 for the next 11??? I just can't wrap my head around that and probably never will.

 

[patdog]

We aren't far off with that. ****, with Sims and Simmons we are on the hosting bubble.

We are that far off. With Sims and Simmons we're on the making a regional bubble. Maybe.

 

[thatsbaseball]

LOL Sure as hell felt like we were more than "a couple of guys short" didn't it ?

 

[57stratdawg]

I agree with you. It’s hard to really see parallels between 2015 -> 2016 and our current situation.

 

[maroonmania]

Did you think Hudson and Houston were going to make a big jump? What about Stratton between his sophomore and junior year or even a guy like Renfroe. You guys act like it’s uncommon for freshman and sophomore to struggle then be good as a junior. We have tons of examples.

Its just a total crap shoot with pitchers. For all the ones that have made jumps I could name guys like Evan Mitchell, Brandon Woodruff, Eric Cerantola, etc. that I thought would make a big jump in college that never really did. Heck, I though Fristoe would make a big jump this year but didn't. I would feel much better about grabbing a productive guy from the portal than just counting on a guy in our program to make a big jump just because he will be a year older.

 

[ronpolk]

Its just a total crap shoot with pitchers. For all the ones that have made jumps I could name guys like Evan Mitchell, Brandon Woodruff, Eric Cerantola, etc. that I thought would make a big jump in college that never really did. Heck, I though Fristoe would make a big jump this year but didn't. I would feel much better about grabbing a productive guy from the portal than just counting on a guy in our program to make a big jump just because he will be a year older.

Yeah, I completely agree with you. I dont think anything is certain in terms of a college pitcher developing. My point was we have several examples of guys showing no signs of progress and then being a dominant pitcher in his last year.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

I love State Baseball. I could give a rat about a national title in football, because we will never - EVER - be in a position to win one.
WE GOT ONE IN BASEBALL. and that should mean everything.
But last year, we were damn lucky. We were not the best team in the nation, probably were not close to the top 10 talent wise, but we had TA and Rowdy and seniors like Self who were real leaders in the club house. And we had a closer who turned out to be 17n lights out. And then Bednar came through when it mattered.
We got lucky and for anyone to think we were going to be the next LSU or Vandy-style program, well that just 17n crazy thinking.

 

[The Peeper]

I expected this year's whole team to "make a big jump and short of Cumbest, who did? Matter of fact the argument could be made that several regressed

 

[thekimmer]

Yeah, I completely agree with you. I dont think anything is certain in terms of a college pitcher developing. My point was we have several examples of guys showing no signs of progress and then being a dominant pitcher in his last year.

That is true. For many of our guys this season it all came down to command. They were purported to have good 'stuff' but couldn't throw it over the plate. If they get that figured out who knows? Heck Fristoe was an SEC starter most of the season in a championship year.

 

[maroonmania]

I expected this year's whole team to "make a big jump and short of Cumbest, who did? Matter of fact the argument could be made that several regressed

Agree, I just have to feel that the NC 'parading' had some guys not nearly as hungry to improve in the offseason as they would have been otherwise.

 

[johnson86-1]

Splitting hairs, and you can view it however you want to. Bottom line is you get the best players you can, hope to host a regional, and let the dominos fall. We aren't far off with that. ****, with Sims and Simmons we are on the hosting bubble.

Yes, the season spiraled at the end, when all the factors started compounding. But with a few more wins in the early/middle of the schedule, things turn out differently.

If you want to believe we have a multi-year rebuild going on, have at it. I'm done trying to convince people that it's not the case.

It's not that I'm predicting it's a multi-year rebuild, it's just that we've got to have a lot of stuff go right for us to not be bad again this year. Not stuff that's crazy improbable, we just have to have several of them happen. Let's say Fristoe lives up to his ability (not crazy for a third year pitcher to figure things out), we get an SEC quality starter from the portal, and Cade Smith isn't hurt and he's a reliable Sunday starter again next year. Kohn improves enough to be a solid long relief pitcher. None of that is crazy improbable and almost fixes our pitching, but I think it's improbable that all of that happens.

And we need something similar to happen for position players, depending on who comes back.

Now if there is enough talent in the transfer portal that it's not that big of a reach to think we can go get 4 new arms that are solid to good, then say 4 position players at positions of need that are solid to good, then no, it's not a big deal. I'm just unclear on how much easily identifiable talent there is in the portal.

 

[thekimmer]

I love State Baseball. I could give a rat about a national title in football, because we will never - EVER - be in a position to win one.
WE GOT ONE IN BASEBALL. and that should mean everything.
But last year, we were damn lucky. We were not the best team in the nation, probably were not close to the top 10 talent wise, but we had TA and Rowdy and seniors like Self who were real leaders in the club house. And we had a closer who turned out to be 17n lights out. And then Bednar came through when it mattered.
We got lucky and for anyone to think we were going to be the next LSU or Vandy, well that just 17n crazy thinking.

Say what you will but there are few programs out there that win a natty without a healthy dose of what some call luck . I mean how many years has it been since the #1 NS won the title?

I don't get why some 'fans' choose to talk down and cheapen such an accomplishment. I don't recall anybody saying we were destined to be the next anything of college baseball but I do know we had been on a pretty good run with 3 straight trips to omaha and 5 straight supers. The key to winning anything, especially in baseball, is to get there often enough. We didn't win last year with any more 'luck' than anybody else gets. You make it sound like last season was just a fluke and not likely to every happen again.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

If there’s a man for a job of this magnitude, I think we’ve got the right one. However, I also think that people need to stop pointing to the A&M situation as of it’s some sort of norm. They’re the exception to the standard, and a fairly extreme one at that

We’re in a weird situation because I actually agree with those saying that we weren’t THAT many players away from being respectable this year. At the same time, though, when you combine our poor performance, atrocious pitching, lack of development, and assumed turnover into one package, I’ll honestly be astonished with a 2 seed next year. I think we’ve got to work on simply getting back to the tournament, and I’ll let the chips fall where they may from there

This is actually a good opinion about this year. It's going to get shouted down by people who are used to us being ****** in everything and MSU having such a bad year across the board We had signs a couple of times that we could might get over the hump over into winning territory we just did not have two things. Someone stepping up to make that big hit or consistent pitching from our bullpen. It's that simple. Pitching issues were the biggest problems. Sims spoiled us in that reliever roll last season. I don't think it had anything to do with his injury but I still think if we had left him in the bullpen and he stayed healthy it could've been a difference in us making the postseason. It might've made the rest of our bullpen pitchers more confident knowing that he had their back but we'll never know

 

[kired]

Agree, I just have to feel that the NC 'parading' had some guys not nearly as hungry to improve in the offseason as they would have been otherwise.

In hindsight, we probably should have expected that. It really was unavoidable considering those guys were treated like gods during the offseason. They were in a position never experienced by anyone in MSU history.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

Say what you will but there are few programs out there that win a natty without a healthy dose of what some call luck . I mean how many years has it been since the #1 NS won the title?

I don't get why some 'fans' choose to talk down and cheapen such an accomplishment. I don't recall anybody saying we were destined to be the next anything of college baseball but I do know we had been on a pretty good run with 3 straight trips to omaha and 5 straight supers. The key to winning anything, especially in baseball, is to get there often enough. We didn't win last year with any more 'luck' than anybody else gets. You make it sound like last season was just a fluke and not likely to every happen again.

I am in no way downplaying the accomplishment. Damn straight it takes a lot of luck, particularly when you don't have elite players in every hole. We didn't and still don't.

I'm just sick of the bellyaching about this year. We lost a lot - a lot more than people realized apparently (that includes me). The real thing we lost was clubhouse leadership. There are some games this year that last year's team would have gutted out - even if we couldn't put Sims back on the mound. Hopefully this year of 'that's baseball' will toughen up the guys who return.
But I'm really hoping Lemonis can get some better players in. We need 'em.

 

[8dog]

There are just much better ways to discuss/analyze/project other than “remember when this happened?” It kind of reminds me of when people wanted to keep Croom because it took so long for Frank Beamer to build VT- It happened once so it could happen to us.

But yeah it takes some good fortune to do what we did in 16. Same with TN. They have 2 super seniors that signed before Vitello got there. They signed the juco Cael Baker but he was good. They signed one of the nations top LHP when Pat Casey retired and he is one of their top HITTERS. Their leading HR hitter is a 4th year guy who played 14 games last year. They have a guy come off TJ throwing 105. When you are winning you say that’s all great Talent ID and Development though.

Vitello is a great coach but all good teams generally have some good fortune

 

[Go Budaw]

I don't think we necessarily have to make a regional for him to keep his job, but we definitely have to be laying a solid foundation for a pretty good run if we miss a regional. Another year like this one and he'll be fired for sure.

No chance at all he gets fired next year if we are bad for the same reasons we were bad this year (pitching injuries and poor timely hitting), and there’s very little chance he gets fired even if we suck for other reasons. Some people may not like it, but a natty buys you a couple of bad years, especially at a school that’s never won one previously.

 

[RightOfCenter]

What happened to Walling this year? Is he even still on the team?

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

I had high expectations for the guys you listed. We all did. And they were all good players before their big jumps. I don’t see anyone on the roster that even closely resembles them in their year before their jumps.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

He pitched last weekend. So, yeah, he’s still on the team…

 

[TrueMaroonGrind]

I would expect a massive push for pitchers this offseason and a couple of solid field players in the portal. Nothing really different than what all our reporters think.

I expect to be comfortably in the post season. Missing the postseason or being on the bubble would be a miss in my book. It feels reasonable to expect that for our baseball program.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Walling participated in Senior Day Activities and entered the Portal. Usually means they ain’t coming back.

 

[Joe Schmedlap]

Exactly. Hell this team was not as awful bad as some want to make it out to be. An absolute **** show from a bullpen standpoint but starting pitching was not complete dog ****. If this team had 2 reliable bullpen guys we would have 5-8 more wins.

Now I expect a lot of new faces but I also expect guys like Fristoe and Kohn will be better next year.

well, Fristoe certainly couldn’t be any worse.

 

[DAWG61]

You're giving Lemons 24 if he doesn't make a regional next year? 17 that. He gone.