Ok, weather guys. Seems forecast is worsening for north and central MS
- Thread starter jdbulldog
- Start date
Model runs have been trending towards a rough day tomorrow. If we can get any semblance of daytime heating it could be an interesting day as we will have plenty of wind shear in place.
There are two maybes that have to happen we need dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 and we need heat which is clearing skies. They're gonna be some very strong storms and y'all will have some wind damage but for the Tornadic Supercell to form you are still have to have those two ingredients tomorrow for a major tornado event. If you end up with a large area of rain around the main storms you're probably not gonna have the tornado risk except on the main front. Tornadic Supercells need heat (the sun this early in the year), moisture aka high dew points, and a clear area all around them to form and not have anything take energy away from the cell itself. There are lots of other factors that are already there with those reasons are why it's hard to have a tornado event this time of year. If this was happening in later March and April you probably would have an event tomorrow because it would already have warm air and you would already have Dew points around 70
Latest hrrr bringing in cape values from 1,000-1,500 so it evidently thinks we get those dew points moved in. It's up to 57 now in Jackson and 56 in Greenwood. Have to see what these 30mph southerly winds do all night.
Lots of messy convection in place in north ms this morning. That's gonna dampen the severe threat for later significantly, unless we see some clearing and periods of sunshine between now and then.
Crapvection looks to be moving out. Dew points along the 82 corridor in the 60 degree range. Got a feeling the strong southerly winds going to keep them rising. HRRR saying 68 points by early afternoon. If we can hit that storms will have fuel. Now, to your point, if we get some breaks in the clouds and hadn't had this morning rain, I'd be waiting to see if today went high risk. Those two factors will dampen it some. Just remains to see how much.
Latest HRRR developing supercells along the 55 corridor around 2:00 and moving them NE. These will be the main storms to watch for tornadogenesis. The main line will follow behind and have a smaller tornado risk and more of a straight line wind threat.
Satellite imagery starting to show breaks in the clouds. I'll be heading out in the next few minutes. Once things get cranking I'll be pretty scarce in here.
Be careful I'm afraid what's gonna happen once all this hits East Mississippi and West Alabama. That seems to be Tornado Alley anyway.
Tornado Watch
[FONT="]A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee until 6 PM CST pic.twitter.com/mXzTPh4vNU— NWS Tornado (@NWStornado) February 17, 2022 [/FONT]
[FONT="]Latest HRRR future radar valid at 1pm and the supercell composite and significant tornado parameter valid at 3pm. pic.twitter.com/gL7bqUbdL2— Meteorologist Johnny Parker (@JohnnyParker012) February 17, 2022 [/FONT]
Update. David Hartman sounds disappointed and the let the young guy say something and point to his map once = central MS is gonna be OK.
Don't you know it and upped his game with the French cuffs today. Not sure what that means. Wait till he starts yelling at John, all hell is going to break loose.
My favorite ever was Dan Satterfield in HSV, AL. Ahead of one front he got all excited and stated "I'm predicting death!". He also often wore sweaters so we called him Dan Sweaterfield.
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