Optimism about this season

[Dawgg]

Am I the only one that's a little optimistic about this season? I feel like there's this overarching gloom that Ole Miss is a shoo-in for the playoff and we're going to have a tough time beating Toledo. I don't think either of those things is true.

I think Shapen is going to be a good quarterback, I think we're going to put a bunch of points on the board, and I think we're going to beat some teams we shouldn't. I don't know what the defense is going to look like , but I don't think we're going to be Sirmon levels bad either.

I get it. We're Mississippi State fans. It's our lot in life to suffer, but I think we're going to be better than a lot of people expect.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

We SHOULD be formidable. Our roster isn't total crap like people say. So if Lebby is going to be good, we'll have a decent 'look' to us.

And of course, Ole Miss will likely choke. But the difference this year is if they choke (as an example, 2015), they might still sneak into a 12-team playoff. They finished #12 in the final pre-bowl CFP ranking that year, at 9-3. Once you get in, who knows what happens. I do think the playoff will grind the lesser teams to smithereens but what happens if a big boy gets a upset?

 

[POTUS]

People around here like to bag on the preseason rankings and how we are always predicted toward the bottom, but I think they are pretty accurate. We aren’t gonna be able to stop a nosebleed on defense. I wish this wasn’t true but we are a few injuries from being a juco team in the d line.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Am I the only one that's a little optimistic about this season? I feel like there's this overarching gloom that Ole Miss is a shoo-in for the playoff and we're going to have a tough time beating Toledo. I don't think either of those things is true.

I think Shapen is going to be a good quarterback, I think we're going to put a bunch of points on the board, and I think we're going to beat some teams we shouldn't. I don't know what the defense is going to look like , but I don't think we're going to be Sirmon levels bad either.

I get it. We're Mississippi State fans. It's our lot in life to suffer, but I think we're going to be better than a lot of people expect.

I don't know about "optimistic", but I always look forward to the first few games and then immediately begin to worry about how those performances will translate into SEC play. This schedule is pretty tough, so we could be decent and still not see wins.

 

[The Peeper]

Just read an article this past weekend that said the last time a Kiffin team was a pre-season top 10 pick was when he was at USC. They ultimately finished 7-6, so there's that.........

 

[patdog]

New coach - never been a head coach (sounds familiar)
New coordinators - never been coordinators before (sounds familiar)
About 50 new players
We return 2 starters on defense and 0 on offense
Transfer QB who has been injury prone.
Brutal SEC schedule, plus a couple of potentially dangerous early OOC games.

We'll be doing good if everyone knows everyone's name by the end of the season. I'm cautiously optimistic for 5 wins. But this year could be a freaking disaster.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

@aTotal360 please pick up the white courtesy phone…

Seriously though, I tend to be pessimistic for reasons stated by POTUS and Horshack: we’re a decent team with little depth on the d line which means compared to our SEC brethren we’ll be lucky to be 5-7.

Add what Pat said about the Not Ready for Prime Time Coaches too…

 

[Dawgg]

And of course, Ole Miss will likely choke. But the difference this year is if they choke (as an example, 2015), they might still sneak into a 12-team playoff. They finished #12 in the final pre-bowl CFP ranking that year, at 9-3.

Fair enough. I just think they're going to be a lot more selective about who they put in the 12 slot this year than they were in 2015 since the implications are greater. I also think their weak schedule is going to work against them this year. Also, being #12 doesn't guarantee you a spot in the playoffs since you could have a G5 or even a Big 12 champ finishing below 12th.

I dunno. I just don't think it's the slam dunk everybody here is saying it is.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Right now, we’re undefeated and i expect to stay that way. Lebby gonna have us putting up so many points the score board operator won’t be able to keep up.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

People around here like to bag on the preseason rankings and how we are always predicted toward the bottom, but I think they are pretty accurate. We aren’t gonna be able to stop a nosebleed on defense. I wish this wasn’t true but we are a few injuries from being a juco team in the d line.

There's really no excuse these days to have glaring holes. You can always get serviceable bodies from the portal, if you intentionally address a position.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

Ole Miss has a chance to be really good & has a weak conference schedule by SEC standards, so their is reason for optimism from their fans.

Georgia & Texas should be in the playoff
Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU, & Missouri all should be contenders for the Playoff.

The SEC will not get 7 teams in the playoff, 4 is probably the maximum. There are going to be at least 3 SEC fanbases that are going to be very unhappy when they don't make the expanded playoff. We just need Ole Miss to be one of these disappointed fanbases.

 

[maroonmania]

Guess I'm a bit snakebit from last year overall but I do think the offense will be way better than last year though that's not saying a lot. I really don't understand why we could not have made a more significant hire at DC. Hutzler and Barnes just don't really move the needle and our defensive recruiting especially in the portal has been subpar. I mean there aren't that many SEC DC jobs available so to have to bring in 2 relatively unknown guys to run the defense was definitely disappointing and tempers my optimism a bit. Hopefully they do a better job than I'm expecting.

 

[ronpolk]

Due to seemingly every other offense being wide open and fun to watch, I don’t even care if we have a **** defense this year, assuming we have a great offense and are fun to watch.

Offense and points bring excitement and put fans in stand. I hope Lebby can deliver

 

[Maroon13]

The "returning starters" stat is very concerning. However how many guys will start for us this year that were starters last year at other schools ?

According to this website, 7 on offense and 4 on defense.


https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/mississippi-state/91211

 

[maroonmadman]

We have lost so much talent and experience on both sides of the ball I just can't be real optimistic. If Lebby can get us into a bowl game I will be a happy camper.

 

[patdog]

The "returning starters" stat is very concerning. However how many guys will start for us this year that were starters last year at other schools ?

According to this website, 7 on offense and 4 on defense.


https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/mississippi-state/91211

Looks like 5 of those 11 transferred from a P5 school. Even in best case, it's asking a lot for so many new players to come together and jell as a unit so quickly.

 

[Dawgg]

Looks like 5 of those 11 transferred from a P5 school. Even in best case, it's asking a lot for so many new players to come together and jell as a unit so quickly.

But isn't that going to be more the norm going forward? That an experienced guy can come in from somewhere else and get plugged in? I feel like every team in the country is dealing with that. It's not special to us.

 

[Seinfeld]

I guess it depends on whether we're talking about our record this year or the program as a whole. I'm optimistic about Lebby, but I'd take 6 wins as being a huge success this season, and I don't think we have much of a prayer of getting beyond that in '24.

 

[patdog]

But isn't that going to be more the norm going forward? That an experienced guy can come in from somewhere else and get plugged in? I feel like every team in the country is dealing with that. It's not special to us.

Depends on the quality you're bringing in from the lower schools. Some will adapt to the SEC, but some won't. I'm just having a hard time seeing 6 wins this fall. If we can get 5 and generally look like our coaches and players have a freaking clue what they're doing, I think that would be a good season under the circumstances.

 

[POTUS]

I guess it depends on whether we're talking about our record this year or the program as a whole. I'm optimistic about Lebby, but I'd take 6 wins as being a huge success this season, and I don't think we have much of a prayer of getting beyond that in '24.

 

[LandArchDawg]

Our schedule is brutal and we are starting with a new coach and new personnel in key areas. I think we are going to put up some points, but our defense has the potential to be like Swiss cheese. Outside of potential blowouts by the top 10 teams on the schedule, I see some close wins and close losses in shootout games.

 

[mcdawg22]

New coach - never been a head coach (sounds familiar)
New coordinators - never been coordinators before (sounds familiar)
About 50 new players
We return 2 starters on defense and 0 on offense
Transfer QB who has been injury prone.
Brutal SEC schedule, plus a couple of potentially dangerous early OOC games.

We'll be doing good if everyone knows everyone's name by the end of the season. I'm cautiously optimistic for 5 wins. But this year could be a freaking disaster.

My dog died when I was five, do you want to talk about that too?

 

[Shmuley]

Feeling pretty confident that 5 wins is achievable

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Am I the only one that's a little optimistic about this season? I feel like there's this overarching gloom that Ole Miss is a shoo-in for the playoff and we're going to have a tough time beating Toledo. I don't think either of those things is true.

I think Shapen is going to be a good quarterback, I think we're going to put a bunch of points on the board, and I think we're going to beat some teams we shouldn't. I don't know what the defense is going to look like , but I don't think we're going to be Sirmon levels bad either.

I get it. We're Mississippi State fans. It's our lot in life to suffer, but I think we're going to be better than a lot of people expect.

I can only think of a few summers when we weren't worried about the upcoming season.

 

[patdog]

My dog died when I was five, do you want to talk about that too?

Might be less depressing than this fall's football season. **

 

[pseudonym]

The first year of the 12-team CFP is going to be fascinating. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised by the outcome for two main reasons:

1. Expansion to 12 teams coincides with massive conference realignment.
2. We've never seen the committee rank teams 10-13 when it mattered.

A lot of people are ignoring those two things and are trying to predict what a 12-team CFP will look like by mapping previous CFP rankings to the new format.

The result is about nine SEC teams that assume that if they go 10-2, they're in. They look at past seasons and see where 10-2 SEC teams are ranked in the final CFP rankings.

Effects of realignment:

1. SEC teams only play half the SEC. (more SOS variance, less head-to-head)
2. There will likely be more 10+ win SEC teams.

It's not hard for me to draw up a scenario in which five SEC teams win 10+ games, and only four are in the CFP.

 

[patdog]

The first year of the 12-team CFP is going to be fascinating. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised by the outcome for two main reasons:

1. Expansion to 12 teams coincides with massive conference realignment.
2. We've never seen the committee rank teams 10-13 when it mattered.

A lot of people are ignoring those two things and are trying to predict what a 12-team CFP will look like by mapping previous CFP rankings to the new format.

The result is about nine SEC teams that assume that if they go 10-2, they're in. They look at past seasons and see where 10-2 SEC teams are ranked in the final CFP rankings.

Effects of realignment:

1. SEC teams only play half the SEC. (more SOS variance, less head-to-head)
2. There will likely be more 10+ win SEC teams.

It's not hard for me to draw up a scenario in which five SEC teams win 10+ games, and only four are in the CFP.

Not sure I agree there will be more 10-win SEC teams. Sure some schedules get easier (Mississippi). But some get harder (Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma ) Mizzou probably doesn’t win 10 last year if they played this years schedule.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I thought we looked well coached in the spring game. We have a tough schedule, but we always do. Toughest part is that we have a couple non conference games that we aren’t guaranteed to win. I think we’ll be fun to watch, and I’m looking forward to it. I’m sure we’ll be cursing the defense but that’s part of what we signed up for

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I think we likely start 3-0 and then are probably gonna get our feelings hurt a bunch afterward. I do believe there’s a path to 6-6 or maybe even 7-5 if some things are better than expected. But you’re probably going 0-4 in SEC road games and almost certainly won’t go 8-0 elsewhere. So the math for bowl eligibility is kinda tough this year. We don’t have much margin for error just to get back to playing a bowl game in Memphis or Nashville.

 

[wdawg44]

We looked better coached in the spring game then at any point last season.

 

[QuadrupleOption]

Ole Miss had 37 players transfer out and 27 transfer in. This, combined with the preseason hype they receive every single year? Sorry, I'm not convinced.

 

[GloryDawg]

We SHOULD be formidable. Our roster isn't total crap like people say. So if Lebby is going to be good, we'll have a decent 'look' to us.

And of course, Ole Miss will likely choke. But the difference this year is if they choke (as an example, 2015), they might still sneak into a 12-team playoff. They finished #12 in the final pre-bowl CFP ranking that year, at 9-3. Once you get in, who knows what happens. I do think the playoff will grind the lesser teams to smithereens but what happens if a big boy gets a upset?

Wouldn't they have been left out because the one G5 teams gets a bid?

 

[GloryDawg]

Ole Miss has a chance to be really good & has a weak conference schedule by SEC standards, so their is reason for optimism from their fans.

Georgia & Texas should be in the playoff
Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU, & Missouri all should be contenders for the Playoff.

The SEC will not get 7 teams in the playoff, 4 is probably the maximum. There are going to be at least 3 SEC fanbases that are going to be very unhappy when they don't make the expanded playoff. We just need Ole Miss to be one of these disappointed fanbases.

There will be somewhere between 5 to 7 ten win teams in the SEC. You are correct about a fan base is going to be upset. The committee will have to take schedule into account. Not to mention they are not going to leave out a blue blood for a non-blue blood. Money and ratings will come into play.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Fair enough. I just think they're going to be a lot more selective about who they put in the 12 slot this year than they were in 2015 since the implications are greater. I also think their weak schedule is going to work against them this year. Also, being #12 doesn't guarantee you a spot in the playoffs since you could have a G5 or even a Big 12 champ finishing below 12th.

I dunno. I just don't think it's the slam dunk everybody here is saying it is.

Wouldn't they have been left out because the one G5 teams gets a bid?

Good Lord guys, I'm simply saying that they were close, even after they choked some games away. I wasn't meticulously analyzing the 2015 selection process.

 

[GloryDawg]

Good Lord guys, I'm simply saying that they were close, even after they choked some games away. I wasn't meticulously analyzing the 2015 selection process.

I was asking a legitimate question. Not going after you. It was not rhetorical.

 

[patdog]

There will be somewhere between 5 to 7 ten win teams in the SEC. You are correct about a fan base is going to be upset. The committee will have to take schedule into account. Not to mention they are not going to leave out a blue blood for a non-blue blood. Money and ratings will come into play.

There won't ever be 7 10-win SEC teams, certainly not in regular season. There will be a few years with 5 10-win teams. But usually it will be 4. Last 5 years (throwing out 2020), there have been 3, 5, 4, 3, & 6 10-win teams counting Texas & Oklahoma. With schedule overall getting harder, those numbers won't be going up. In particular, the 6 10-win teams last year wouldn't have happened if UT & OU were in the SEC.

 

[pseudonym]

Not sure I agree there will be more 10-win SEC teams. Sure some schedules get easier (Mississippi). But some get harder (Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma ) Mizzou probably doesn’t win 10 last year if they played this years schedule.

I'm not simply looking at specific schedules that get easier. I'm considering adding quality teams (Texas and Oklahoma) without adding conference games. Enough of the quality teams don't play each other to create reasonable paths to 10 wins.

 

[GloryDawg]

There won't ever be 7 10-win SEC teams, certainly not in regular season. There will be a few years with 5 10-win teams. But usually it will be 4. Last 5 years (throwing out 2020), there have been 3, 5, 4, 3, & 6 10-win teams counting Texas & Oklahoma. With schedule overall getting harder, those numbers won't be going up. In particular, the 6 10-win teams last year wouldn't have happened if UT & OU were in the SEC.

I say that because so many teams playing only 8 SEC games. I think the 10-win seasons will less the norm if they go to nine SEC games.

 

[mcdawg22]

Might be less depressing than this fall's football season. **

But other than that, how was the play Mrs Lincoln?

 

[patdog]

I'm not simply looking at specific schedules that get easier. I'm considering adding quality teams (Texas and Oklahoma) without adding conference games. Enough of the quality teams don't play each other to create reasonable paths to 10 wins.

There will actually be MORE games between the quality teams, not less. We added 2 more quality teams, so that's 16 games vs quality teams. But we didn't add games vs the bottom half of the conference. Those games will now be split 16 ways instead of 14. So overall, strength of conference schedules will get harder, not easier.