Optimism about this season

[BulldogBlitz]

Vandy will be laughing at us.

 

[Darryl Steight]

we are always predicted toward the bottom, but I think they are pretty accurate.

First time for everything, I guess. The voters haven't gotten us right yet, but maybe this is their year.

 

[Darryl Steight]

Guess I'm a bit snakebit from last year overall but I do think the offense will be way better than last year though that's not saying a lot. I really don't understand why we could not have made a more significant hire at DC. Hutzler and Barnes just don't really move the needle and our defensive recruiting especially in the portal has been subpar. I mean there aren't that many SEC DC jobs available so to have to bring in 2 relatively unknown guys to run the defense was definitely disappointing and tempers my optimism a bit. Hopefully they do a better job than I'm expecting.

Bill Belichik and Buddy Ryan had first seasons at some point too.**

You never know how a rookie coach is going to turn out, but I did like some of the things he and Lebby said about his defensive philosophy. No read and react shiit. And he was at least in the room with Saban at some point last year, so hopefully some of his stuff rubbed off on Hutz.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

With so many big changes this season, I believe there are many unknowns for everyone. I'm not counting on anything except Notre Dame being in the preseason top-ten poll.

 

[aTotal360]

Don't do it. I care boutcha.

 

[Darryl Steight]

Looks like 5 of those 11 transferred from a P5 school. Even in best case, it's asking a lot for so many new players to come together and jell as a unit so quickly.

Did you see our offense last year? Who exactly did we want back? I'm not sure it's a horrible thing to start with a shiny new roster.

 

[POTUS]

First time for everything, I guess. The voters haven't gotten us right yet, but maybe this is their year.

2023: Predicted 7th, Finished 6th*
2022: Predicted 6th, Finished 3rd
2021: Predicted 7th, Finished 4th
2020: Predicted 5th, Finished 7th
2019: Predicted 5th, Finished 5th
2018: Predicted 3rd, Finished 4th

* - actually tied with Arkansas for 6th but beat them for our only SEC win

In the last six seasons we've outstripped the preseason prediction twice (2022 & 2021) and fallen short one time (2020) whereas the media has pretty much had us pegged exactly three times (2023, 2019 & 2018). So maybe there is a big anti-MSU bias but the last six seasons don't seem to indicate that.

 

[Darryl Steight]

2023: Predicted 7th, Finished 6th*
2022: Predicted 6th, Finished 3rd
2021: Predicted 7th, Finished 4th
2020: Predicted 5th, Finished 7th
2019: Predicted 5th, Finished 5th
2018: Predicted 3rd, Finished 4th

* - actually tied with Arkansas for 6th but beat them for our only SEC win

In the last six seasons we've outstripped the preseason prediction twice (2022 & 2021) and fallen short one time (2020) whereas the media has pretty much had us pegged exactly three times (2023, 2019 & 2018). So maybe there is a big anti-MSU bias but the last six seasons don't seem to indicate that.

To me, that list looks like:

2018: Moor disappointment
2019: "Pegged exactly"
2020: Wuhan flu/waste of time
2021: voters miss by 3
2022: voters miss by 3
2023: even f'ing Zach Arnett outperformed them.

I don't know why you stopped at 2018, but I think there is a pretty good history of outperforming the vote beyond that too. I'm not arguing we're going to be great, but I'm also not going to assume SEC voters know jackshitt just because they assume we're going to suck every year.

 

[TXDawg.sixpack]

First time for everything, I guess. The voters haven't gotten us right yet, but maybe this is their year.

If they always pick us to be last, they’ll eventually be right at some point…

 

[maroonmania]

Our schedule is brutal and we are starting with a new coach and new personnel in key areas. I think we are going to put up some points, but our defense has the potential to be like Swiss cheese. Outside of potential blowouts by the top 10 teams on the schedule, I see some close wins and close losses in shootout games.

I agree. I would give anything to trade schedules with OM this year. Everything is set up on a tee for them this year to have huge success.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I can take a last-place finish if we are guided in the right direction at the end of the season. It's been a long time since I've seen us where we have a path in the future at the end of the season.

 

[POTUS]

To me, that list looks like:

2018: Moor disappointment
2019: "Pegged exactly"
2020: Wuhan flu/waste of time
2021: voters miss by 3
2022: voters miss by 3
2023: even f'ing Zach Arnett outperformed them.

I don't know why you stopped at 2018, but I think there is a pretty good history of outperforming the vote beyond that too. I'm not arguing we're going to be great, but I'm also not going to assume SEC voters know jackshitt just because they assume we're going to suck every year.

This post is giving an old man yells at cloud vibe. You want to believe the media is biased against MSU. Go for it. The data doesn't back that up. But when has that ever stopped anyone?

As an example, they picked us to be worst in the SEC West in 2023. We were. 1-7. They nailed it. Perfect pick. Just so happened that Arkansas also went 1-7 and gave us our only win. Did we outperform their expectations? No. Arkansas just underperformed. Had nothing to do with us. They said we would suck and we did. But that doesn't help maroon tinted glasses wearers from coping so instead we say, "dA mEeDjA hAteZ uS!!!"

The reason I didn't go back further is because the article I found only went back six years. If you want to do your own research and show that I'm wrong, feel free. Something tells me you won't.

 

[Dawgg]

Wouldn't they have been left out because the one G5 teams gets a bid?

Yes, Houston would have gotten in as the AAC Champion that year.

 

[Dawgg]

Good Lord guys, I'm simply saying that they were close, even after they choked some games away. I wasn't meticulously analyzing the 2015 selection process.

You made some good points. I was just saying that I don't think a 9-3 season THIS season is going to get them in.

 

[onewoof]

Not sure if this is optimism or just reality for a new coach and a defense that will be torched repeatedly. Arkansas is 50/50 best case, so we are looking at 4-5 win season.

I think we will be happy after game 3 and then its just a kick in the gut season after that.

W Eastern KY
W Arizona State
W Toledo
L Florida
L Texas
L Georgia
L Texas A&M
W Arkansas
W UMass
L Tenn
L Missouri
L Ole Miss

 

[JonJuanQuixote]

First year head coach that has no previous head coaching experience, new DC with no previous DC experience, very few returning starters, tough schedule.. I'd like to be more optimistic, but 6-6 with a bowl game doesn't sound too bad all things considered. Can we at least put up points and be competitive against top opponents?

 

[Dawgg]

This post is giving an old man yells at cloud vibe. You want to believe the media is biased against MSU. Go for it. The date doesn't back that up. But when has that ever stopped anyone?

As an example, they picked us to be worst in the SEC West in 2023. We were. 1-7. They nailed it. Perfect pick. Just so happened that Arkansas also went 1-7 and gave us our only win. Did we outperform their expectations? No. Arkansas just underperformed. Had nothing to do with us. They said we would suck and we did. But that doesn't help maroon tinted glasses wearers from coping so instead we say, "dA mEeDjA hAteZ uS!!!"

The reason I didn't go back further is because the article I found only went back six years. If you want to do your own research and show that I'm wrong, feel free. Something tells me you won't.

2017 - Predicted 6th, finished 4th
2016 - Predicted 7th, finished 6th (or tied for 5th losing the tiebreaker to Ark)
2015 - Predicted 7th, finished 6th (or tied for 5th losing the tiebreaker to A&M)
2014 - Predicted 5h, finished 2nd
2013 - Predicted 6th, finished 5th (or tied for 5th winning the tiebreaker over Ole Miss)
2012 - Predicted 6th, finished 4th
2011 - Predicted 4th, finished 5th
2010 - Predicted 6th, finished 5th
2009 - Predicted 6th, finished 6th (or tied for 4th losing tiebreakers to Auburn and Arkansas)

I don't think it's active malice or anything like that. It's just that we've shared a division with some of the biggest brand names in college football that we get overlooked.

 

[L4Dawg]

I see little reason at all for optimism. We have almost no starters back. We have a LOT of guys who have never played with each other before, over half the roster. We have a first-time head coach and a first-time defensive coordinator. 3-4 wins tops. I REALLY hope I'm wrong.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

I REALLY hope I'm wrong.

thankfully, you’ve got a proven track record

 

[Anon1704414204]

No matter how many times my Born A Dawg 61 yr old azz has been kicked in the nuts I always grow overly optimistic wool pre-season. I'm thinking last year's schitty coaching was our problem not overall talent. Here's to hoping I don't hafta plug in the shears. UhGAIN.

 

[POTUS]

2017 - Predicted 6th, finished 4th
2016 - Predicted 7th, finished 6th (or tied for 5th losing the tiebreaker to Ark)
2015 - Predicted 7th, finished 6th (or tied for 5th losing the tiebreaker to A&M)
2014 - Predicted 5h, finished 2nd
2013 - Predicted 6th, finished 5th (or tied for 5th winning the tiebreaker over Ole Miss)
2012 - Predicted 6th, finished 4th
2011 - Predicted 4th, finished 5th
2010 - Predicted 6th, finished 5th
2009 - Predicted 6th, finished 6th (or tied for 4th losing tiebreakers to Auburn and Arkansas)

I don't think it's active malice or anything like that. It's just that we've shared a division with some of the biggest brand names in college football that we get overlooked.

Yes, every blue moon we are actually good and exceed expectations. But where we finish in the West has just as much if not more to do with other teams meeting, exceeding or falling short of the media's expectations for them. Sometimes the media misses where we finish not because they wrongly evaluated our talent, but because they misevaluated one or two other teams. This idea that they pick us last every year or that we always exceed their expectations is just wish-casting. We are a bottom dweller in this conference.

If you picked us to finish in the top half of our division every year you'd have been right twice in 15 years. But somehow posters here turn that into some kind of disrespect. It's a tired take.

 

[Darryl Steight]

This post is giving an old man yells at cloud vibe. You want to believe the media is biased against MSU. Go for it. The data doesn't back that up. But when has that ever stopped anyone?

As an example, they picked us to be worst in the SEC West in 2023. We were. 1-7. They nailed it. Perfect pick. Just so happened that Arkansas also went 1-7 and gave us our only win. Did we outperform their expectations? No. Arkansas just underperformed. Had nothing to do with us. They said we would suck and we did. But that doesn't help maroon tinted glasses wearers from coping so instead we say, "dA mEeDjA hAteZ uS!!!"

The reason I didn't go back further is because the article I found only went back six years. If you want to do your own research and show that I'm wrong, feel free. Something tells me you won't.

Are you really trying to goad me into doing research on whether the SEC media has been overly negative on State's football every preseason?

Sure Mr. Sallee, I'll get right on that.

 

[Darryl Steight]

Yes, every blue moon we are actually good and exceed expectations. But where we finish in the West has just as much if not more to do with other teams meeting, exceeding or falling short of the media's expectations for them. Sometimes the media misses where we finish not because they wrongly evaluated our talent, but because they misevaluated one or two other teams. This idea that they pick us last every year or that we always exceed their expectations is just wish-casting. We are a bottom dweller in this conference.

If you picked us to finish in the top half of our division every year you'd have been right twice in 15 years. But somehow posters here turn that into some kind of disrespect. It's a tired take.

"every blue moon we exceed expectations"
"we only do well when other teams suck"
"we are a bottom dweller in this conference"
"there is no disrespect"

Meanwhile, I see stats that show the media voters underestimated us 10 out of 16 years and I say "they usually underestimate us"... but I'm the old man yelling at clouds. Alrighty then.

 

[Dawgg]

Yes, every blue moon we are actually good and exceed expectations. But where we finish in the West has just as much if not more to do with other teams meeting, exceeding or falling short of the media's expectations for them. Sometimes the media misses where we finish not because they wrongly evaluated our talent, but because they misevaluated one or two other teams. This idea that they pick us last every year or that we always exceed their expectations is just wish-casting. We are a bottom dweller in this conference.

If you picked us to finish in the top half of our division every year you'd have been right twice in 15 years. But somehow posters here turn that into some kind of disrespect. It's a tired take.

I mean... you can choose to see this however you want, but from what I'm seeing, since 2009:
We finished higher than predicted 10 times
We finished lower than predicted 3 times (one of which was the weird covid season)
We finished as predicted 2 times.

So, over the previous 15 seasons, we have outperformed expectations 2/3 of the time, er go, we outperform media predictions most of the time.

 

[T-TownDawgg]

"every blue moon we exceed expectations"

*miketice pumps fist trump-style and orgasms*

 

[mcdawg22]

I mean... you can choose to see this however you want, but from what I'm seeing, since 2009:
We finished higher than predicted 10 times
We finished lower than predicted 3 times (one of which was the weird covid season)
We finished as predicted 2 times.

So, over the previous 15 seasons, we have outperformed expectations 2/3 of the time, er go, we outperform media predictions most of the time.

Yeah well that only applies if words mean what they mean, otherwise you are wrong***

 

[BossDawg78]

New coach - never been a head coach (sounds familiar)
New coordinators - never been coordinators before (sounds familiar)
About 50 new players
We return 2 starters on defense and 0 on offense
Transfer QB who has been injury prone.
Brutal SEC schedule, plus a couple of potentially dangerous early OOC games.

We'll be doing good if everyone knows everyone's name by the end of the season. I'm cautiously optimistic for 5 wins. But this year could be a freaking disaster.

Damnit, man. I was already pessimistic about this season, but I was kinda hoping for 6-6 and a bowl.. Now I'm not sure if I even want to keep up with it at all.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

I mean... you can choose to see this however you want, but from what I'm seeing, since 2009:
We finished higher than predicted 10 times
We finished lower than predicted 3 times (one of which was the weird covid season)
We finished as predicted 2 times.

So, over the previous 15 seasons, we have outperformed expectations 2/3 of the time, er go, we outperform media predictions most of the time.

There was a significant change in July 2021. Hard to judge both eras together, especially when most all of us agree the changes didn’t necessarily help us.

 

[patdog]

Damnit, man. I was already pessimistic about this season, but I was kinda hoping for 6-6 and a bowl.. Now I'm not sure if I even want to keep up with it at all.

Oh, I still want to keep up with it. Doubt we’ll see 6 wins because of the schedule and so many new coaches & players. But hope to see us building a foundation for the future.

 

[Old Fart Dawg]

I love the smell of fresh wool in the morning….

 

[POTUS]

I mean... you can choose to see this however you want, but from what I'm seeing, since 2009:
We finished higher than predicted 10 times
We finished lower than predicted 3 times (one of which was the weird covid season)
We finished as predicted 2 times.

So, over the previous 15 seasons, we have outperformed expectations 2/3 of the time, er go, we outperform media predictions most of the time.

They predicted us 6th and we finished 5th. See the disrespect! See the underestimation! These folks just hate State! Give me a break.

 

[ChinaDogSunflower]

Am I the only one that's a little optimistic about this season? I feel like there's this overarching gloom that Ole Miss is a shoo-in for the playoff and we're going to have a tough time beating Toledo. I don't think either of those things is true.

I think Shapen is going to be a good quarterback, I think we're going to put a bunch of points on the board, and I think we're going to beat some teams we shouldn't. I don't know what the defense is going to look like , but I don't think we're going to be Sirmon levels bad either.

I get it. We're Mississippi State fans. It's our lot in life to suffer, but I think we're going to be better than a lot of people expect.

I think we'll surprise a lot of people that are going off last year's dumpster fire. We will look like all stars by comparison.

I'm excited about the new offensive scheme and some new personnel. Shapen could have a nice season if he stays healthy.

Defense will be the big question mark. Hopefully we won't see dudes wide open in the middle of the field every single third down

 

[Dawgg]

They predicted us 6th and we finished 5th. See the disrespect! See the underestimation! These folks just hate State! Give me a break.

I literally said it wasn’t out of malice. Your weird need to be a jackass is affecting your cognitive skills.

 

[msstatelp1]

State fans are like Cubs fans, eternally optimistic until the first game then doom and gloom.

 

[Howiefeltersnstch]

I would be satisfied with 6 wins and a bowl game. The defense is the real question. If they make it thru the year without any injuries and exceed expectations I could see another win or two. But if they suck 5 wins could be possible. Let's remember the spring game was against our defense. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that shoeing. So 5 to 7 is my guess with 7 being impressive to me. Less than 5 would be horrific in my opinion

 

[Dawgg]

State fans are like Cubs fans, eternally optimistic until the first game then doom and gloom.

See, I think we’re the opposite. I think we’re eternally pessimistic.

 

[L4Dawg]

thankfully, you’ve got a proven track record

Actually I have been pretty close about football most years.