OT: CPI

[PooPopsBaldHead]

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8.5%

I will dig into the components in a few hours and make a call on whether or not this is the peak, but with housing lag and Russia oil embargo, prolly not.

My guy BB to enter the chat soon from his deluxe apartment in the sky with a:

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[57stratdawg]

NASDAQ futures up nearly 2% after the report. This should be the top of the CPI reading for 2022. Here’s the breakdown by category. Look at how big of a jump we’ve seen in fuel / gas since Russia invaded:

[TWEET]1513863268875526149[/TWEET]

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Things aren’t getting more expensive. Our currency is being devalued. When the electorate realizes this, then it can be addressed. Probably won’t until it’s too late.

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[BoomBoom.sixpack]

View attachment 24258

8.5%

I will dig into the components in a few hours and make a call on whether or not this is the peak, but with housing lag and Russia oil embargo, prolly not.

My guy BB to enter the chat soon from his deluxe apartment in the sky with a:

View attachment 24259

Lol, here I come.

Core at 0.3. Headline not showing April's drop in gas prices. Blaring signs that it's transitory and we shouldn't overreact, but of course we will. Odds of an induced recession just significantly went up.

Here's where you can actually look at the long term trend of select actual goods. It doesn't show what JoeLeeInflationista is trying to sell. It shows that we have a years-long run-up in price of certain supply constrained goods. Other goods, no run up in price. That's still a problem, but it's not a problem that jacking up interest rates can solve. So I'm not saying nothing to see here, I'm actually saying it's worse. We have allowed unheard of amounts of market consolidation, and this is the bill for that starting to come due. Monopolies don't respond well to market disruptions, they just jack prices and keep on keeping on. Free markets innovate and solve the problem, but we don't have one anymore.

ETA: whoops, forgot the link
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-average-price-data.htm

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

Things aren’t getting more expensive. Our currency is being devalued. When the electorate realizes this, then it can be addressed. Probably won’t until it’s too late.

And there's where all this crap comes from. It's where it always comes from. A DECADES long obsession that inflation is coming, any minute now, that they finally have something to hang their hat on and they won't let it pass by no matter how much it doesn't actually fit their theory.

 

[57stratdawg]

The core reading (0.3% vs 0.5% expected) was definitely a big positive in today’s report. No doubt.

On the jobs side though - the BLS has had issues collecting info. Which has resulted in underreporting job growth (large monthly revisions). Hopefully that’s not just some missing data, and it’s a real slow down.

 

[dorndawg]

If lumber was the canary in the coalmine on inflation, it has lost 35% of its value in less than a month. (JLS I know you know this but others likely don't)

 

[johnson86-1]

Lol, here I come.

Core at 0.3. Headline not showing April's drop in gas prices. Blaring signs that it's transitory and we shouldn't overreact, but of course we will. Odds of an induced recession just significantly went up.

Here's where you can actually look at the long term trend of select actual goods. It doesn't show what JoeLeeInflationista is trying to sell. It shows that we have a years-long run-up in price of certain supply constrained goods. Other goods, no run up in price. That's still a problem, but it's not a problem that jacking up interest rates can solve. So I'm not saying nothing to see here, I'm actually saying it's worse. We have allowed unheard of amounts of market consolidation, and this is the bill for that starting to come due. Monopolies don't respond well to market disruptions, they just jack prices and keep on keeping on. Free markets innovate and solve the problem, but we don't have one anymore.

ETA: whoops, forgot the link
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-average-price-data.htm

We have both. We have inflation due to monetary and fiscal policy, and we have price increases due to supply shocks caused largely by supply chain issues. The supply chain issues make it difficult to address the monetary issues.

 

[57stratdawg]

Definitely. We're getting it on both sides.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Not trying to defend Biden or blame the world’s problems on Trump, but we significantly devalued our dollar while Trump was in office, especially that last year while he was trying to save his second term chances. Your chart looks like this started with Biden.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

That’s it.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Fuel up 18.3% and overall energy up 11%. That's 32% in that sector YOY.
Food up 1%. 8.8% YOY.
Saying the worst is behind us doesn't mean things will get better. Just means they'll get worse at a slower rate.

 

[BigDog72.sixpack]

No one is talking about the Chinese lockdowns and how this will hit us in the coming months. This will only help that inflation number keep rising. Even after covid, we're still knee deep into that country. Stay tuned for this.

 

[johnson86-1]

NASDAQ futures up nearly 2% after the report. This should be the top of the CPI reading for 2022. Here’s the breakdown by category. Look at how big of a jump we’ve seen in fuel / gas since Russia invaded:

[TWEET]1513863268875526149[/TWEET]

I wish I kept better records because that seems low to me. Our grocery spending from first quarter of last year to first quarter of this year is up 11.6%. But we've downgraded our spending a decent amount, not just substituted between equivalents. Eating out is only up 6.7% 1q of 2021 to 1q of 2022, but we've basically dropped eating out and that is just picking up cheap stuff like Mexican or pizza. Can't really compare without knowing how our habits have changed, but I think we actually get more of our meals from pickup than we used to get from eating out and are actually buying fewer groceries because we're being more conscientious about not wasting food.

Gas seems right. quarter to quarter comparison shows 48% change and I don't think our driving habits have changed significantly if at all. Rent seems low. When we have tenant changeover, we've been increasing rents more like 7-10%. From what I can tell, apartment complexes are increasing rent more like 20%. That's obviously a local issue though. But I would think our location would normally be below the trend on rent. I guess with a lot of cities still being idiots about covid restrictions ,maybe that's still putting downward pressure on rent.

 

[johnson86-1]

Not trying to defend Biden or blame the world’s problems on Trump, but we significantly devalued our dollar while Trump was in office, especially that last year while he was trying to save his second term chances. Your chart looks like this started with Biden.

Printing money certainly didn't start with Biden. We had inflationary policy with trump but also had pro growth policy. Probably was still on net baking some future inflation into the cake. Biden has just been disastrous because he has paired inflationary fiscal policy with anti-growth policies while also being incompetent at things that the president actually could fix (like preventing state and local policies from creating bottleneck for interstate commerce). But certainly there are non-Biden issues and a president that had done a good job would probably still be getting raked over the coals for problems that would be half as bad.

 

[johnson86-1]

No one is talking about the Chinese lockdowns and how this will hit us in the coming months. This will only help that inflation number keep rising. Even after covid, we're still knee deep into that country. Stay tuned for this.

If we had functional politics, you'd see us trying to come up with a strategy for sourcing fertilizer and chips (and probably a dozen other key inputs?) from friendly countries not subject to takeover from a place like China or Russia. We'd also be making it easier to produce, transport, and refine oil/gas/petroleum in the US since we do it more cleanly. At least if you really believe we are going to transition to renewables. If you believe in peak oil and that we're going to ahve a significant degredation in quality of life due to lack of availability of economic fossil fuels, I guess you maybe want us to buy from the rest of the world and sit on our reserves.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Agreed, I wasn’t giving Biden a free pass. Probably should’ve not made my first comment, I don’t want to turn this thread into a Biden/Trump thread. Just wanted to point out that I think the chart was misleading in regards to the associated comment.

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

We have both. We have inflation due to monetary and fiscal policy, and we have price increases due to supply shocks caused largely by supply chain issues. The supply chain issues make it difficult to address the monetary issues.

If you mean we have inflation due to monetary and fiscal policy (heading off a recession), then I guess you are technically correct, but it seems you are trying to imply something else.

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

Printing money certainly didn't start with Biden. We had inflationary policy with trump but also had pro growth policy. Probably was still on net baking some future inflation into the cake. Biden has just been disastrous because he has paired inflationary fiscal policy with anti-growth policies while also being incompetent at things that the president actually could fix (like preventing state and local policies from creating bottleneck for interstate commerce). But certainly there are non-Biden issues and a president that had done a good job would probably still be getting raked over the coals for problems that would be half as bad.

If we had functional politics, you'd see us trying to come up with a strategy for sourcing fertilizer and chips (and probably a dozen other key inputs?) from friendly countries not subject to takeover from a place like China or Russia. We'd also be making it easier to produce, transport, and refine oil/gas/petroleum in the US since we do it more cleanly. At least if you really believe we are going to transition to renewables. If you believe in peak oil and that we're going to ahve a significant degredation in quality of life due to lack of availability of economic fossil fuels, I guess you maybe want us to buy from the rest of the world and sit on our reserves.

Isn't that what the recently passed microchip bill is supposed to do? Or is Bernie right that it's just a corporate giveaway, like the airline bailout?

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Here’s a breakdown of commodities year to date.

[TWEET]1512755080256229383[/TWEET]

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Agreed, I wasn’t giving Biden a free pass. Probably should’ve not made my first comment, I don’t want to turn this thread into a Biden/Trump thread. Just wanted to point out that I think the chart was misleading in regards to the associated comment.

How is a chart that shows CPI from Obama's second term through Trump and into Biden misleading? Because it shows that the current administration is a dumpster fire?

Classic take. The data shows something I don't like so it's "misleading."

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Not trying to defend Biden or blame the world’s problems on Trump, but we significantly devalued our dollar while Trump was in office, especially that last year while he was trying to save his second term chances. Your chart looks like this started with Biden.

Hey dub mass, see where it almost bottoms out about 1/3 of the way through 2020. Can you muster the brain power to imagine what might have happened to start its climb?

 

[jethreauxdawg]

How is a chart that shows CPI from Obama's second term through Trump and into Biden misleading? Because it shows that the current administration is a dumpster fire?

Classic take. The data shows something I don't like so it's "misleading."

You talked about the the dollar being devalued and then posted a graph with “Biden” in drastically larger font than “cpi”. That made me think the chart was about the devaluation of the dollar, not CPI, starting with Biden.
No love for Biden from me, I was just calling a spade a spade. I hope you have a great day, see you at church Sunday?

 

[57stratdawg]

There's just not much value in it. We see high inflation in basically every country right now (Canada, Germany, UK, etc.). It is just more expensive to produce goods in this post-Pandemic world than it was pre-Pandemic. These supply chain issues are very, very real.

Is Biden's policies driving up costs in the UK too?

Also, you got this from "Tyler Durden", right? I would be careful about that.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

I have no idea who that is, other than the character from Fight Club.

And yes, Biden's policies in regards to Keystone XL and Nordstream have helped to drive up energy prices in UK.

ETA: Also, I enjoy it when someone looks at a verifiably true chart of data and says, well wait where did you get it from? As if the source makes the data bad. That's a fun little game.

 

[mcdawg22]

People are still spending. I don’t know **** about economics but it seems to me, if I have a widget that I can charge you $20 instead of $10 and everyone is still buying it. I’m gonna charge that. I see people bitching about prices but they are renovating their house, taking multiple vacations this summer, buying Wagyu briskets. I have a neighbor that complains about gas and has a spare Honda Accord because his step son went to live with his father. He still drives his GMC truck to his office job 20 miles away. If we keep spending the prices won’t go down. If we keep printing money it sure as hell won’t go down. When the recession hits I can’t wait to see everyone shift their bitching to their house value going down and their 401k taking a hit.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Flooding the market with printed money. Inflation first , stagflation, then recession.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

If you mean we have inflation due to monetary and fiscal policy (heading off a recession), then I guess you are technically correct, but it seems you are trying to imply something else.

This is by far the greatest sentence you have ever written on SPS. Glfr must have tuned you up pretty good a few weeks back.**


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[57stratdawg]

The Keystone pipeline is driving up the price of used cars in the UK? Come on... Either way - Isn't this where you got it from? There's a reason he writes under 'Tyler Durden'.

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I updated the Canadian inflation trend with 'Biden'. You can see how silly it is:

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FYI - https://www.reuters.com/world/ameri...ses-57-feb-highest-since-aug-1991-2022-03-16/

 

[mcdawg22]

Flooding the market with printed money. Inflation first , stagflation, then recession.

I’m ready for the stagnation. I’m tired of the poors being able to afford all inclusive vacations driving up the price. Ocho Rios is almost double what it was in 2019.****

 

[dorndawg]

People are still spending. I don’t know **** about economics but it seems to me, if I have a widget that I can charge you $20 instead of $10 and everyone is still buying it. I’m gonna charge that. I see people bitching about prices but they are renovating their house, taking multiple vacations this summer, buying Wagyu briskets. I have a neighbor that complains about gas and has a spare Honda Accord because his step son went to live with his father. He still drives his GMC truck to his office job 20 miles away. If we keep spending the prices won’t go down. If we keep printing money it sure as hell won’t go down. When the recession hits I can’t wait to see everyone shift their bitching to their house value going down and their 401k taking a hit.

This. I'll truly believe inflation matters when the Starbucks line isn't out to the road at any time of day.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

I’m ready for the stagnation. I’m tired of the poors being able to afford all inclusive vacations driving up the price. Ocho Rios is almost double what it was in 2019.****

Ain’t that the truth, all these poors now sitting in first class have basically turned it to coach**

 

[Smoked Toag]

People are still spending. I don’t know **** about economics but it seems to me, if I have a widget that I can charge you $20 instead of $10 and everyone is still buying it. I’m gonna charge that. I see people bitching about prices but they are renovating their house, taking multiple vacations this summer, buying Wagyu briskets. I have a neighbor that complains about gas and has a spare Honda Accord because his step son went to live with his father. He still drives his GMC truck to his office job 20 miles away. If we keep spending the prices won’t go down. If we keep printing money it sure as hell won’t go down. When the recession hits I can’t wait to see everyone shift their bitching to their house value going down and their 401k taking a hit.

You ain't lying.

While my grocery bill is definitely higher, I attribute most of it to feeding teenagers, not inflation.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Weed prices are way up. Fertilize and heat lamps are expensive! Plus, all that extra food I need after.. SMH

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

This is by far the greatest sentence you have ever written on SPS. Glfr must have tuned you up pretty good a few weeks back.**


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I for sure have never seen someone pat themselves on the back more from less than you manage to. Hats off.

 

[Digging dog]

I’m ready for the stagnation. I’m tired of the poors being able to afford all inclusive vacations driving up the price. Ocho Rios is almost double what it was in 2019.****

I’m ready for the poors to want to work again***

 

[mcdawg22]

I’m ready for the poors to want to work again***

Who isn’t working? Are they at home collecting their sweet $275 a week in Florida for a max of 19 weeks? I could see when working at McDonald’s got you $7 an hour how that may be tempting but making $13 an hour should change that. I also don’t think the people making 14000 a year are driving prices for non essential spending.

 

[johnson86-1]

Isn't that what the recently passed microchip bill is supposed to do? Or is Bernie right that it's just a corporate giveaway, like the airline bailout?

It's one of the things that I think the senate and house bill claims to do. Haven't read anything about them other than headline "claims", but I think almost certainly a significant percentage of the bill is a giveaway. Just a question of whether it's like 30% or 97%.

 

[mstateglfr]

How is a chart that shows CPI from Obama's second term through Trump and into Biden misleading? Because it shows that the current administration is a dumpster fire?

Classic take. The data shows something I don't like so it's "misleading."

It is misleading because it intends to lead the reader to a simplistic and inaccurate conclusion. Reality is that the net increase in what products cost is not based on a singular reason. We are part of a global economy, operate within a global supply chain, and listing one reason for the increase is disingenuous.

Here is your graph with another event that actually starts where your graph dips lowest. Oh, and its a global event which falls in line with the reality that costs have exploded in Canada, Europe, Asia, etc.
So lets go with the simplistic graph below instead of yours. At least the one below can help explain how prices have surged around the world.
View attachment 24266

 

[mstateglfr]

You ain't lying.

While my grocery bill is definitely higher, I attribute most of it to feeding teenagers, not inflation.

You are misattributing it then. Or at least partly misattributing it.

Between increased costs and decreased packaging, effective cost per ounce is clearly up for food.