OT: CPI

[paindonthurt]

Republicans democrats and trump deserve blame for 2020 but it would have been political suicide to veto that bill.

But a majority democrat congress and democrat president kept it right up in 2021 and are just as much to blame or more.

Why? Bc it wasn’t about an election then. They are just that dumb.

 

[Smoked Toag]

You are misattributing it then. Or at least partly misattributing it.

Between increased costs and decreased packaging, effective cost per ounce is clearly up for food.

It was a joke, dubmass.

To spell it out for your special mind, I don't feel the inflation nearly as much as just the sheer volume of food I now have to buy, compared to year's past.

Better? Get it now? If you're looking for one of your typical idiotic arguments, look elsewhere.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

You should run and tell these people inflation can't be blamed on a single reason:

[TWEET]1513858060707672066[/TWEET]

[TWEET]1513859694586122243[/TWEET]

[TWEET]1513865173962043394[/TWEET]

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

The workforce is pretty much there already. You just had a lot of people go and find something better than flipping burgers.

 

[johnson86-1]

People are still spending. I don’t know **** about economics but it seems to me, if I have a widget that I can charge you $20 instead of $10 and everyone is still buying it. I’m gonna charge that. I see people bitching about prices but they are renovating their house, taking multiple vacations this summer, buying Wagyu briskets. I have a neighbor that complains about gas and has a spare Honda Accord because his step son went to live with his father. He still drives his GMC truck to his office job 20 miles away. If we keep spending the prices won’t go down. If we keep printing money it sure as hell won’t go down. When the recession hits I can’t wait to see everyone shift their bitching to their house value going down and their 401k taking a hit.

Well, pretty much be definition people have to still be spending to have inflation. The problem is there is not much logic to who gets helped and who gets harmed by it (although I assume very few people really get helped by it on net).

 

[mstateglfr]

You should run and tell these people inflation can't be blamed on a single reason:

1- are all those examples of people who think it can be tied to only one reason? I mean, is it necessary to run and tell them or are you just claiming that is necessary?
2- In the title of your WAPO link, the headline identifies inflation as a feature of...the covid economy. Take this moment to see my made up graph and look at what it references as the starting point for the increase.
Inflation has proven to be one of the most blistering features of the covid economy

3- In another link you provided, the headline cites the invasion of Ukraine as the reason for a spike in oil prices.



Honest question, are you even reading the **** you are copy and pasting or are you just skimming the headlines(and not even the full headline)?
This is a global issue. It is impacting economies across the world. And it is occurring due to multiple issues.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

I for sure have never seen someone pat themselves on the back more from less than you manage to. Hats off.

Keep watching then. You'll think I am an 8 armed Hindu deity before long...


Looked over a little data.

View attachment 24271

This is going to be the top print of CPI in my view. Finally getting into higher comps across the board and used cars are going to really start to decline as that was one of the first ones to jump. IRI data is still showing 9% YOY inflation on grocery store items, but first the first time in a year, their demand index dropped significantly in the week of 4-3. It absolutely plummeted on items like meat, seafood, and alcoholic beverages. On those items in particular, it makes it look like pocket books are hurting.

https://indices.iriworldwide.com/covid19/?i=0

On the flip side, gas prices aren't going anywhere and the data lag on housing is just ripping. Not to mention, that .6 MoM increase in healthcare is worrisome. If I were trading CPI directly, this is where I buy my short. My guess is it remains elevated at or near the 5% mark by the end of year because of that nasty lag in shelter which accounts for so much of the weighting.

My guess is we really start to see "goods inflation" start to fall faster and services rise to some degree. Nobody is cancelling those vacation plans this summer or that boob job you've been waiting to get since Christmas of 2019. But, you may see people backing off the new purchases of **** they really don't need. After this summer's travels, we are all going to be broke as 17 and austerity starts to kick in. 4-4.5% CPI by end of 22'.

 

[GloryDawg]

At least 40 years ago interest rates was in the teens. You could bank money and make up the difference you were paying for inflation. I don't plan on borrowing money and my credit card debt is under controlled. Selfishly I could benefit if interest rates got really high. However it would kill a lot of people with a lot of credit card debt and those needing to make a large purchases. It would hurt small businesses as well.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Honest question, are you even reading the **** you are copy and pasting or are you just skimming the headlines(and not even the full headline)?
This is a global issue. It is impacting economies across the world. And it is occurring due to multiple issues.

Do you think that inflation has affected the entire world to the same degree that it has affected the U.S.? I do not.

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

Keep watching then. You'll think I am an 8 armed Hindu deity before long...


Looked over a little data.

View attachment 24271

This is going to be the top print of CPI in my view. Finally getting into higher comps across the board and used cars are going to really start to decline as that was one of the first ones to jump. IRI data is still showing 9% YOY inflation on grocery store items, but first the first time in a year, their demand index dropped significantly in the week of 4-3. It absolutely plummeted on items like meat, seafood, and alcoholic beverages. On those items in particular, it makes it look like pocket books are hurting.

https://indices.iriworldwide.com/covid19/?i=0

On the flip side, gas prices aren't going anywhere and the data lag on housing is just ripping. Not to mention, that .6 MoM increase in healthcare is worrisome. If I were trading CPI directly, this is where I buy my short. My guess is it remains elevated at or near the 5% mark by the end of year because of that nasty lag in shelter which accounts for so much of the weighting.

My guess is we really start to see "goods inflation" start to fall faster and services rise to some degree. Nobody is cancelling those vacation plans this summer or that boob job you've been waiting to get since Christmas of 2019. But, you may see people backing off the new purchases of **** they really don't need. After this summer's travels, we are all going to be broke as 17 and austerity starts to kick in. 4-4.5% CPI by end of 22'.

What were those three things I said made up the overwhelming bulk of our "inflation"?

How will interest rate hikes affect any of those?

Hard to draw any conclusions right now, but I think I see two trends. One, inflation expectations are becoming unmoored. Historically, this was a huge risk. I see it as less now, because peeps can't demand/get raises like they used to. Two, prices appear to be starting to affect consumption. Sellers risk losing profit and customer loyalty if they increase prices further. So, it has transitory written all over it. As you said, housing issues will lag in the data, but otherwise it looks like its nearly done. Whenever gas prices go back to normal, CPI will crater.

As I originally said, you can't have true inflation without wage increases. The pandemic sure created some wild fluctuations, but that base point is holding up far better than you appear to realize.

 

[dorndawg]

At least 40 years ago interest rates was in the teens. You could bank money and make up the difference you were paying for inflation. I don't plan on borrowing money and my credit card debt is under controlled. Selfishly I could benefit if interest rates got really high. However it would kill a lot of people with a lot of credit card debt and those needing to make a large purchases. It would hurt small businesses as well.

On a related note, is bank savings interest going up? Seems like it's been something like 0.25% (or less) for years.

 

[bolddogge]

Yes this is a global issue. The guy in the Whitehouse isn't helping us much, if any. Out of the 185 countries listed, the US inflation rate is worse than about 2/3 of them. Inflation Rate - Countries - List | World (tradingeconomics.com)

 

[mstateglfr]

Do you think that inflation has affected the entire world to the same degree that it has affected the U.S.? I do not.

View attachment 24273


Let's recap.
- contrary to your insistence, inflation in the US is not simply due to who is in office.
- I easily provided a reason that none fully accounts for the drop and then rise in your grap, and that reason is a global one.
- Inflation is happening across the world right now. Some countries are impacted less than the US and some more than the US. That further shows it is not a single issue of who is in the WH.
- Your links were trash with regard to supporting your claim. One cites covid in the headline and the other cites Ukraine in the headline. Both are global issues and further show this is a multi-faceted issue.


You keep moving the goalposts and you aren't making any better arguments even after they moved. Your current argument seems to be 'well ok it is a global issue and ok there were multiple reasons for it happening butnits hurting the US more than many other countries!'
Ok, sure, I agree with that. It isnt at all what you were arguing before though.

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

Yes this is a global issue. The guy in the Whitehouse isn't helping us much, if any. Out of the 185 countries listed, the US inflation rate is worse than about 2/3 of them. Inflation Rate - Countries - List | World (tradingeconomics.com)

??? Isn't this what we would expect to see? Did you expect US inflation to equal Ethiopia's? How many cars and steaks are they buying?

 

[GloryDawg]

??? Isn't this what we would expect to see? Did you expect US inflation to equal Ethiopia's? How many cars and steaks are they buying?

How much money have they printed and just gave it away?

 

[GloryDawg]

On a related note, is bank savings interest going up? Seems like it's been something like 0.25% (or less) for years.

It's not going up.

 

[57stratdawg]

We’ve had much more growth though. Our GDP actually reached Q4 2019 levels in Q1 2021. I don’t believe any of the other G7 countries are expected to recover their levels for several more quarters.

It makes sense if you think about it:

> Our high-tech economy and access to reliable, high-speed internet allowed us to transition to work-from-home relatively easily.

> We had virtually no lockdowns, especially compared to our peers. We traded added cases and deaths for less disruptions.

> We were the first country to start rolling out large scale vaccination programs. They were largely developed here; plus, our advanced infrastructure and transportation capabilities put us +/- 6 months ahead of everyone else. I remember checking emails about lockdown disruptions from Asia in July / August 2021. We were barely wearing mask by that point. Ha.

> Our job growth levels should pass pre-Pandemic levels by May / June 2022. That’s blazingly fast.

Everything cuts both ways. Do you want a slower recover, or the inflation? Not sure sure there was a way for us to have our cake and eat it too.

 

[bolddogge]

??? Isn't this what we would expect to see? Did you expect US inflation to equal Ethiopia's? How many cars and steaks are they buying?

Did you fail economics or just not look at the data? Let me help. Higher inflation = bad. Ethiopia's is over 30%. USA (that's us) 8.5%. UK (England not the Wildcats) 6.2%. Canada 5.7%. European union 5.6%.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Well the wife just informed me

That eggs are $3/dozen. They were $0.87/dozen not long ago. The Jethreaux clan eats a lot of eggs. When are the chickens gonna go back to work and start producing?

 

[mstateglfr]

That eggs are $3/dozen. They were $0.87/dozen not long ago. The Jethreaux clan eats a lot of eggs. When are the chickens gonna go back to work and start producing?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
The average price for a dozen large eggs hasn't been that cheap since 2001. Many athletes at MSU weren't even born when the average cost was that low.
Obviously that is the average so you were recently buying waaaay below the average. Be happy about that instead of pouting that they are temporarily expensive.


Also, I hear Easter is coming up and there is a bit of a bird flu in the chicken world. Perhaps this is just an example of good old supply and demand at play? We are at a high demand and lower supply period in time...so prices tend to rise.



Thanks Obama, amiright?

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Don’t know Fred, but my wife keeps pretty good records of the grocery spending, especially on certain items. I’m honored my post bothered you enough that you felt the need to look that up to reply to me. Bless your heart.

 

[BoomBoom.sixpack]

Did you fail economics or just not look at the data? Let me help. Higher inflation = bad. Ethiopia's is over 30%. USA (that's us) 8.5%. UK (England not the Wildcats) 6.2%. Canada 5.7%. European union 5.6%.

I didn't look at the data and pulled Ethiopia outta my @ss as an non-industrialized country.

But anyway, the point was intended to be that inflation focused on gas, food, and cars should be expected to affect America more, as we consume more, total and per capita, of each of those than anyone else.

 

[mstateglfr]

Don’t know Fred, but my wife keeps pretty good records of the grocery spending, especially on certain items. I’m honored my post bothered you enough that you felt the need to look that up to reply to me. Bless your heart.

Your post didn't bother me. It piqued my curiosity because you mentioned eggs costing only $.87/dozen until recently and I was surprised that is a normal proce for anyone in the US to pay.

I don't track egg prices closely because I don't care that much and because we get eggs from a friend and my wife venmos whatever we owe. Your post intrigued me, it didn't trigger me.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/08/business/egg-prices-avian-flu/index.html


From the article:

Typically, large white eggs in that region cost somewhere between $0.70 and $1.10 per dozen, said Earnest, who noted that the Midwest prices serve as a national benchmark.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Well someone has egg on their face. Bless his heart.

 

[gwadSIG]

With high gas prices, crazy msrp on gas cars or unavailability, the market will be primed for demand for electric vehicles. I'd imagine it falls within the administration's goal of electric cars by a certain year. Almost like it was by design.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Ima need you to please abandon logic, turn into an identity politics shill, and stick to a narrative, please. And if you could stick to information sources that highly favor your pre conceived opinions that would be nice as well.

 

[mstateglfr]

Well someone has egg on their face. Bless his heart.

I was surprised eggs had recently cost so little, DCD provided info, and now I know. Again, based on average cost of a dozen eggs, you have been buying cheap so be happy about.
Still not sure why there is egg on my face, though the reference was a good one. Its like some on here now refuse to allow any information sharing to happen without condemnation.


Again though, hitting back to the initial reason why I posted in this thread, there are multiple factors for prices increasing on goods in the US. It isnt a singular reason. In this example, we have a bird flu plus increased holiday demand as 2 reasons for prices increasing.

 

[mstateglfr]

With high gas prices, crazy msrp on gas cars or unavailability, the market will be primed for demand for electric vehicles. I'd imagine it falls within the administration's goal of electric cars by a certain year. Almost like it was by design.

You think the current administration got together and planned for the multiple reasons global oil/gas prices are high, and also planned for car prices to shoot thru the roof due to a chip shortage that happened before the administration existed? I dont even know how to begin to seriously address that.

I will say that if they somehow did these seemingly impossible things with the goal of increasing electric cars, they are failing since electric cars also have a limited inventory.



People hear ghosts where they want to hear ghosts.

 

[Cooterpoot]

By the way, weed is actually about 20% lower in price. I was just trying to prevent the rush on it. Don't want another toilet paper type shortage.
Invest in weed with bitcoin!

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Exactly. Unemployment is the lowest in over 50 years.

 

[johnson86-1]

Exactly. Unemployment is the lowest in over 50 years.

Unemployment doesn't really tell you the story on that since people not looking for jobs aren't counted. Unemployment benefits tell you something, but until recently, it was plausible that second earners in particular were sitting out of the work force because extra cash allowed them too. Workforce participation rate tells you something, although with so many baby boomers nearing retirement age, it makes it hard to tease out stuff.

Not disagreeing that the workforce is back. It appears to me that employers are not as desperate for workers and I have seen advertisements for workers at lower wages than would have been possible six months to a year ago. So I think you're probably right, just not sure the unemployment rates addresses the thought that people are sitting out of the workforce b/c of government benefits or whatever.

 

[johnson86-1]

There's just not much value in it. We see high inflation in basically every country right now (Canada, Germany, UK, etc.). It is just more expensive to produce goods in this post-Pandemic world than it was pre-Pandemic. These supply chain issues are very, very real.

Is Biden's policies driving up costs in the UK too?

Also, you got this from "Tyler Durden", right? I would be careful about that.

I mean, I think a lot of the developed countries are following the same playbook? Lots of government spending with reduced production. They mostly aren't as well positioned as us because they don't have a relatively dominant economy with tons of just about whatever resource you want to think of, with a few notable exceptions.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Exactly. Unemployment is the lowest in over 50 years.

That's going to be changing soon

 

[Cooterpoot]

Mortgage related lending is forecast to drop 35-40% this year.

 

[johnson86-1]

What were those three things I said made up the overwhelming bulk of our "inflation"?

How will interest rate hikes affect any of those?

Hard to draw any conclusions right now, but I think I see two trends. One, inflation expectations are becoming unmoored. Historically, this was a huge risk. I see it as less now, because peeps can't demand/get raises like they used to. Two, prices appear to be starting to affect consumption. Sellers risk losing profit and customer loyalty if they increase prices further. So, it has transitory written all over it. As you said, housing issues will lag in the data, but otherwise it looks like its nearly done. Whenever gas prices go back to normal, CPI will crater.

As I originally said, you can't have true inflation without wage increases. The pandemic sure created some wild fluctuations, but that base point is holding up far better than you appear to realize.

I'm seeing the opposite. We have had huge percentage increases in our lower paid positions, mostly without asking. Had essentially a 15% increase in starting wages and then also gave "raises" recently to basically match inflation. So our lower paid workers are doing a good amount better, even after accounting for inflation. Our better paid employees have essentially take a small paycut in real terms. I don't think that's atypical. May not keep inflation at 8%, but seems like we're headed for well above the fed's supposed target rate for a while.

 

[mstateglfr]

Unemployment doesn't really tell you the story on that since people not looking for jobs aren't counted. Unemployment benefits tell you something, but until recently, it was plausible that second earners in particular were sitting out of the work force because extra cash allowed them too. Workforce participation rate tells you something, although with so many baby boomers nearing retirement age, it makes it hard to tease out stuff.

Not disagreeing that the workforce is back. It appears to me that employers are not as desperate for workers and I have seen advertisements for workers at lower wages than would have been possible six months to a year ago. So I think you're probably right, just not sure the unemployment rates addresses the thought that people are sitting out of the workforce b/c of government benefits or whatever.

My state ended the extra unemployment payment 10 months ago. It did not move the needle and fill employment shortages, even though vocal supporters of ending the extra payment claimed people were not working because they were able to sit on their couch and rake in the money.
Going into last fall, advertised job rates did decrease a bit, so it appears that over months of time more workers have been added at the entry end.

My state's legislators recently passed bills to reduce unemployment by 10 weeks, which would make our benefits some of the shortest lasting in the country. The bills also reduce the time before someone must take a lower paying job from after their 5th week to at the end of their 1st week. People would have 1 week to look for a job before they have to take a lower paying job or lose unemployment.

Those are efforts to increase employment and reduce the amount of available jobs in the state.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

My point with the chart and the links is that this inflation has been coming on ever since COVID. It was bound to happen to some degree regardless of who is in the White House. But according to the admin it’s the “Putin Price Hike”. The chart clearly shows otherwise. And the media are running cover for them by acting like Ukraine is driving it. When it’s been headed to the moon since way before Russia started amassing on the border.

There are ways this current admin could’ve combatted and mitigated against some of this inflation but they are beholden to a small percentage of their base (the left-wing radicals) and therefore can’t or won’t. Like for instance, focusing on energy independence and becoming less dependent on Chinese manufacturing.

This admin didn’t start this fire, but they are willingly fanning its flames and asking us to believe some how it’s all Putin’s fault.

 

[dorndawg]

Mortgage related lending is forecast to drop 35-40% this year.

That number isn't necessarily indicative of demand only - it's also supply related, with existing homeowners increasingly staying put, further reducing the number of homes for sale.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

Dorn is right. Nobody is going to refinance and there is nothing to buy. You're not going to get a mortgage on thin air.

This is chart is the most important data in the world of housing. Everything else is noise until it normalizes.

View attachment 24279

This housing supply problem is real. We have 1/4 of the inventory we should and it's somehow lower than this time last year. Builders are pulling back starts so they can finish what they have. And nobody is going to sell a home with a cheap mortgage and a lot of equity to buy an expensive house with an expensive mortgage.

When you here about stagflation, housing is there. Growth has flatlined but cost is still going up. Yuck.