OT: Does the IBIT ETF Change anyone's mind about investing in bitcoin?
- Thread starter horshack.sixpack
- Start date
I'm pretty bullish on the IDGAF market though........**
It is an ETF that only holds Bitcoin. Basically, it is an easy way to get into bitcoin, but still have a standard path for trading the EFT. You don't have to get any special account, etc. On Fidelity, at least, it requires that you sign off on an agreement that Fidelity has absolutely nothing to do with this fund, nor will provide any advice on it, and it requires that your portfolio risk profile be marked as Very Aggressive.
I'm pretty bullish on the IDGAF market though........**
So it does nothing to offset any inherent risk of investing in Bitcoin, but it does make the buying and selling of it much easier. SPS is well known for investment advice so I asked the board.
This is absolutely correct. It actually carries all the price risk of bitcoin plus multiple layers of counter-party risk.
A bitcoin ETF is not bitcoin. You cannot withdraw bitcoin to self-custody from a bitcoin ETF. It is simply a financial vehicle to get exposure to the price movement of bitcoin, which isn't the same as holding bitcoin. So you sell dollars for shares of an ETF, hope it goes up, then sell shares of an ETF for dollars. Dollars in, dollars out. Then, pay taxes.
One of the fundamental features of bitcoin is that it is an asset that can be used to store large amounts of value that can be moved globally and instantly without counter-party risk. An ETF forfeits those advantages.
I suspect that many people will be more receptive to Blackrock/Fidelity risk than to dealing directly with bitcoin and platforms(including that risk) required to trade it directly.
This is definitely true for a large group of people. Hopefully, for their sake, they dip their toe in the water with an ETF, and now that they have some skin in the game, decide to educate themselves on bitcoin itself. In my experience, a high understanding of bitcoin and self-custody of bitcoin are positively correlated.
Doesn't change anything for me. I've always viewed cryptocurrency as an ETF of sorts. Try to buy it low, in USD, and then sell it high, to end up with more USD than I started with. That's what 90% of people who hold cryptocurrencies do with it, whether they're willing to admit that or not. Honestly, outside of a very small handful of cryptos (BTC and ETH being the main 2), that's all 99.9% of them are good for.
Now, yeah, there's plenty of people who preach on the financial freedom bit, but the thing that's driving the price of virtually all cryptos is what I just said. People are trying to make more fiat currency off of them.
It's just another way for me to add (more) exposure to my overall portfolio.
Now, yeah, there's plenty of people who preach on the financial freedom bit, but the thing that's driving the price of virtually all cryptos is what I just said. People are trying to make more fiat currency off of them.
It's just another way for me to add (more) exposure to my overall portfolio.
Right. What assets can be liquidated if nobody wants to trade my baseball card, my bad, my bitcoin any longer? Baseball cards have value that can be exchanged to USD. So I'm not completely shitting on bitcoin - but ultimately, what is it other than a speculative item based on...vibes?
Plenty of reason to crap on USD as well, but "If A = Crap, then Non-A = THE FUTURE" doesn't hold water.
The true believers want self custody (honestly, it always seemed crazy to me to be in bitcoin and take on the counterparty/fraud risk of the exchanges). But I think most people are going to get all they want and then some from the ETF? Outside of fraud, pretty sure the ETF's are going to actually hold the equivalent number of bitcoins that you would get if you bought bitcoin directly (less fees). So you don't get cold storage, but the flipside is that you don't have the risk of losing your key. If there is fraud or they manage to have their bitcoin stolen, you are at least looking at seeking recovery from a company like Fidelity (I think? Not sure if they isolate these ETFs to limit recovery to some subsidiary). And regardless of your remedy against a company like Fidelity, if a Fidelity or Blackrock has a **** ton of money stolen from them, basically the law enforcement resources of the entire developed world will be working to track down the thief(s), whereas if you have your individual bitcoin stolen, nobody with the means to catch the thief is going to be interested.
Hi ckDOG, I invite you to investigate the differences between bitcoin and collectibles like baseball cards. This erroneous comparison is a common criticism of bitcoin and has been thoroughly refuted.
I will try to summarize a few of the points you will probably discover as you investigate the matter yourself:
Bitcoin is fundamentally different from collectibles like beanie babies or baseball cards, and it's important to understand why. While these items may have value to collectors, they lack several key attributes that make bitcoin a unique and superior store of value:
- Scarce Supply: Unlike beanie babies or baseball cards, which can be reproduced or have uncertain scarcity, bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins. This scarcity is enforced by its code, making it inherently deflationary and resistant to inflationary pressures that can diminish the value of fiat currencies.
- Decentralization: Bitcoin operates on a decentralized network of nodes, meaning it's not controlled by any single entity or government. This decentralized nature ensures that bitcoin is censorship-resistant and immune to arbitrary manipulation or interference by any central authority.
- Immutable Ledger: Every transaction on the bitcoin blockchain is recorded on an immutable ledger, providing transparency and security. This feature prevents double-spending and ensures the integrity of the entire transaction history, which is crucial for establishing trust in its value as a store of wealth.
- Global Accessibility: Bitcoin can be accessed and transacted anywhere in the world, as long as there's an internet connection. This accessibility makes it an attractive store of value for people in countries with unstable economies or limited access to traditional banking services.
- Growing Adoption: Bitcoin's adoption as a store of value is continually increasing, with institutional investors, corporations, and even some governments recognizing its potential as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. This growing acceptance and adoption contribute to its resilience and long-term viability as a store of wealth.
Therefore, while collectibles may have value within certain niche markets, they cannot match the unique attributes and growing acceptance of bitcoin as a superior store of value in today's digital economy.
I hope that helps!
No. BTC can be infinitely split, at any valuation, so there is no scarcity at all. When a baseball card is split in two, it doesn't create 2 cards at half the value each.
Wishful thinking.
All this does is create an equality with physical goods, like gold. Its not a unique property.
Ok, but im neither.
And this can reverse at any time.
no, they dont.
so is BTC.
Enjoy your stash of beanie babies. Don't hold it till its worthless.
I'm not arguing that you can't make money on it, or even that you shouldn't try. However, none of these points speaks to me:
1. 21 million fixed; for now. it is immature as a currency and may or may not stay fixed. the gold standard was a thing too
2. this seems to hedge against a fear of traditional institutions that I don't have. being that it's "value" is inherently arbitrary, hedging against arbitrary manipulation doesn't seem like a big deal to me
3. it's nice that the best provisions to keep someone from manipulating the ledger are in place, but again, I expect my current financial institutions to be pretty solid at maintaining a general ledger as well
4. I can use the money I have anywhere in the world. I've done it. cash/cc/travelers checks(I'm old) whatever. as for countries that don't have financial infrastructure to support using my money as it is currently held, I doubt they have money to buy bitcoin directly through it's platform
5. it is being adopted, to the point of other posters, because people can make money on the price fluctuations, but ultimately that in and of itself does not impute value
Again, I'm not totally negative on the idea of making money from it, but I'm far more likely to toss a few dollars at an EFT so long as I know that I would be perfectly OK if they vaporized in short order.
some will never get it until it’s too late. a large piece of the every 4 yr bull run is the devaluing of govt issued currency. these criminal politicians and wall street crooks could not care less about the peasants
Can Bitcoin's Hard Cap of 21 Million Be Changed? | River Learn - Bitcoin Basics
Learn why Bitcoin's 21 million supply cap, known as the hard cap, cannot be changed due to incentive and governance models in the Bitcoin protocol.
river.com
Bitcoin vs. Gold | River Learn - Bitcoin Basics
Bitcoin and gold are the primary inflation hedges utilized by consumers. Bitcoin offers superior value as a medium of exchange and secure long-term value relative to gold.
river.com
No government has successfully mass confiscated or banned bitcoin, while the U.S. and many other governments have historically seized privately owned gold. Finally, bitcoin offers superior divisibility and portability to any currency, but especially gold."
I would summarize these points as you being satisfied with and preferring your existing forms of money. That is your prerogative. I'm not going to try to convince you otherwise. I'm more interested in helping people understand bitcoin. I'll just say this: The change in the conversion rate between bitcoin and all fiat currencies is an expression of the growing preference for bitcoin over those currencies as a store of value.
I have no problem agreeing with the idea that most people first adopt bitcoin because they see the conversion rate between bitcoin and fiat currencies increasing. That doesn't mean that it doesn't have specific store-of-value properties that make converting your fiat currency into bitcoin very rational. Another way of saying people only buy bitcoin because the price is increasing is saying the only reason people dump fiat is because the price is decreasing. If that's all you know, that's a pretty compelling case for bitcoin. Fortunately, we know a lot more than that.
Are you telling me they are making more 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle cards? Again, value based on what? I'm still at vibes.
I could charter a company with the promise that there is only one equity round. No future shares issued or splits. Are holders of the equity instruments more interested in the scarcity or the assets/business model I acquire/develop with the funding and future cash flows/growth it can generate? Well - shoot - don't answer that. Our more recent investors seem to only care about a scarcity concept and not actual assets and returns on them. And here we are...bitcoin.
That's great. And yet we still value bitcoin in the most stable/accessible currencies we can exchange for it - typically USD.
This is the true value falling out of crypto emergence - better security mechanisms for digital exchanges of currency. But it's a transactional value, not a currency value as the tech is not limited to only bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. It will be implemented more and more as it makes sense.
Yes, it's better for unstable regions and people who don't have access to stable currency. An easily accessible unstable currency > hard to access and unstable currency .
That actually makes me more worried about bitcoin value to be honest. Or whatever made it valuable to begin with. If the allure of bitcoin is its fixed supply and decentralized nature, why do you want high-resource institutional/government investors getting involved? The only appealing things to me about bitcoin in the first place was sort of the rebellious spirit and prevention of manipulation via making it difficult to monopolize the "asset" (damn the man!). Moving this way just sounds like a move for a big bait and switch with the little guys taking the hit as you would expect.
For all Bitcoin backers, I propose this scenario. If you can logically answer these questions for me, I can become a believer tomorrow.
Scenario: It is present day, 2/14/2024. I own 1 bitcoin. I am considering 3 options for this position that I have. Selling / liquidating it (to own none), converting more fiat currency over to procure 1 more bitcoin (to own 2 total coins and double my stake), or simply do nothing.
Part 1 - the USD price of 1 bitcoin instantly goes to $100 (and whatever the equivalent is to that in every other foreign currency). The value of every other asset in the world and exchange rate of every other currency remains unchanged.
1-1) Should I buy 1 bitcoin? Why or why not?
1-2) Should I sell 1 bitcoin? Why or why not?
1-3) Should I do nothing? Why or why not?
Part 2 - the USD price of 1 bitcoin instantly goes to USD $10,000,000, or foreign currency equivalent. Everything else in the world’s global economy remains unchanged.
2-1) Should I buy 1 bitcoin? Why or why not?
2-2) Should I sell 1 bitcoin? Why or why not?
2-3) Should I do nothing? Why or why not?
Scenario: It is present day, 2/14/2024. I own 1 bitcoin. I am considering 3 options for this position that I have. Selling / liquidating it (to own none), converting more fiat currency over to procure 1 more bitcoin (to own 2 total coins and double my stake), or simply do nothing.
Part 1 - the USD price of 1 bitcoin instantly goes to $100 (and whatever the equivalent is to that in every other foreign currency). The value of every other asset in the world and exchange rate of every other currency remains unchanged.
1-1) Should I buy 1 bitcoin? Why or why not?
1-2) Should I sell 1 bitcoin? Why or why not?
1-3) Should I do nothing? Why or why not?
Part 2 - the USD price of 1 bitcoin instantly goes to USD $10,000,000, or foreign currency equivalent. Everything else in the world’s global economy remains unchanged.
2-1) Should I buy 1 bitcoin? Why or why not?
2-2) Should I sell 1 bitcoin? Why or why not?
2-3) Should I do nothing? Why or why not?
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Excuse me, sir. Seeing as how the V.P. is such a V.I.P., shouldn't we keep the P.C. on the Q.T.? 'Cause if it leaks to the V.C. he could end up M.I.A., and then we'd all be put on K.P.
Instead of considering two ridiculous scenarios, let’s consider a bit of reality:
Everyone who has DCA’d into bitcoin for more than 3.5 years is in fiat profit, regardless of when they started.
Should you:
A. DCA into bitcoin?
B. Sell all your bitcoin?
C. Do nothing?
So, you can’t answer any of the questions?
The thing is, I can answer all those questions - quite easily - for just any other physical asset (house, vehicle, boat, etc.), currency, stock, bond, or other property in the world that I could possibly own. But I can’t answer those questions for Bitcoin or any other crypto in general. So I’m legit looking for help. If you can answer the questions and defend those answers in logical fashion, I’m all ears.
dont sweat my man. bitcoin is an IQ test that 95% of the world has failed. i suggest you bury your 20s in a coffee can in the back yard for safe keeping.
because i'm curious, how many boosters have you had?
I think you should sell everything and give to the Bulldog Initiative.
Support the Initiative - The Bulldog Initiative
bulldoginitiative.com
So I guess that’s the standard reply when you have no constructive defense for your position. As many wise men have said, if you can’t explain it or teach it, then do you truly understand it yourself?
You are approaching me like I’m being a smart áss. I’m legitimately looking for answers here.
If bitcoin has tremendous value (in USD or otherwise), great. If I want a piece, I have to buy in. If I buy in, I have to pay something. If I pay something, I have to know that the amount I am paying is less than the value I am getting.
The biggest enthusiasts simply fall back on “wait 3.5 years, guaranteed payback!”, or “it’s always gone up vs. fiat”. Nobody can explain what it’s actually worth (in any terms) or what the utility is, or why the price trend on an asset with a grand total of 15 years in existence should be given the same latitude as the 80 year track record of the S&P 500.
Is there a future where some entities will accept ONLY bitcoin, and the price spread will be drastic on goods sold there vs. USD equivalent at other locations? Is there a future where capital gains taxes will not be made on crypto cash-out?
And if I’m just blindly speculating and want something as a low allocation moon-shot attempt in the back end of my investment portfolio, is Bitcoin a bigger payoff than penny stocks, hedge funds, AI start-ups, or what have you?
Again, these are legit curiosities. If you can provide constructive info, it’d go a long way in getting me on the wagon. But your initial take doesn’t make you appear capable of that.
The very nature of bitcoin is that it cannot expand beyond 21 million coins. For instance each coin mined, takes more energy to produce and more effort to mine than the previous coin. Mathematically, the 21st millionth coin would require more energy than has ever hit the face of the earth for the past 4 billion years. Or something like that. In other words, you cannot mine the last one, so the number is basically forever locked.
Same page as me. When another poster made their (I assume) very best points about it and they did not resonate with me I have to assume that I'm too dense to understand how it has any inherent value. I may toss some fun money at the EFT just to see if enough people believe in it to make me some money, but I see that no different than putting 20 on black. I know that I'm taking a risk and its all in good fun. And unfortunately for me I can only think of this old SNL skit:
Fiat, not backed by anything. This seems to apply to bitcoin as well. Why do you make a distinction between dollars and bitcoins in this fashion?
Saying fiat current is not backed by anything is not exactly true. The dollar is generally exchanged via Federal Reserve notes that are backed by debt that is issued by a nation with the constitutional authority to tax as well as the world's largest economy, an enormous amount of natural resources, and powerful military, and that is allied with most of the other "good guys" in the world.
I don't think that's a helpful question. Replace the bitcoin with USD. If the USD is suddenly worth 1/52,000 of other currencies tomorrow, should you buy it? Sell it? Do nothing? Presumably if that's the case the US is suffering from hyper inflation from money printing and you should not buy a dollar unless you need to immediately pay some US taxes. In the bitcoin scenario, presumably it's suffering not from inflation but simply lack of confidence and recognition as a value medium of exchange/store of value, and you should not buy it unless you want to immediately make a cross border purchase online and want a relatively easy way to complete the transaction.
The question is what keeps that scenario from happening? For the US government, nothing stops the hyper inflation except that in the past we have had more or less adults in charge and hopefully we will again in the future. It's not looking great though. Even outside of catastrophic inflation, the Fed has an announced policy of trying to make the dollar worth almost 2% less per year. In practice, they have 17ed that up badly and after a lot of improvement, are still making the dollar worth >3% less per year currently. On the flipside, the USD does somewhat have a backstop against a lack of confidence because it ultimately will always be needed to pay US taxes.
For bitcoin, the money printing issue is solved. But you don't have anything really providing a backstop against a lack of confidence. Every other dollar substitute has some base case providing a floor on demand, which helps boost confidence (gold and silver both have industrial/tech uses; currencies have the need to pay taxes). Bitcoin's base demand is I think the use of online transactions across international boundaries? Or maybe even more limited and it's in environments like gaming where you have a lot of people across the world engaging in a lot of transactions and having bitcoin as currency causes less headaches than using the USD?
I don't think the question is really bitcoin versus the USD though. You should hold as few USD as possible. The quesiton is whether bitcoin is going to appreciate more than productive assets going forward. Obviously it has by a mile so far, and it can continue to do so if it actually becomes used as a currency on a more regular basis. But you do have a bigger risk of catastrophic loss, as it's only worth anything because people expect other people to think it is worth something. That can fall apart fairly easily, particularly if it goes on a sustained drop and a lot of people panic sell.
I was just going by the strict definition, not bashing the dollar, but noticing that bitcoin advocates use the term "fiat currency" more than the average human. Likely because it implies government issued, but by definition is not backed by anything like gold. My point, although poorly constructed, is that is seems that the term is intended to imply something negative about a currency being fabricated by a government vs being fabricated by a computer program. I was pointing out that neither the dollar nor bitcoin has any backing. It's just interesting to me...
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You're right about one thing: The fiat gains of bitcoin are not the end all be all of bitcoin's value proposition because fiat is a sh*t measuring stick. However, considering the audience, it is often the easiest way to demonstrate to someone a very basic and proven fact: bitcoin works as a savings technology. A more sound way of proving this is by measuring bitcoin's growing purchasing power over time, which also proves that bitcoin works as a savings technology. I'll let you take your personal basket of goods and services and compare how much they cost today compared to five, ten years ago (priced in bitcoin). They get cheaper over time when your unit of account is bitcoin.
Your point that I will push back on: bitcoin is backed by nothing. Here is a helpful article that argues that bitcoin is not backed by nothing. It is a 28 minute read if you have the time:
Bitcoin is Not Backed by Nothing - Unchained
Bitcoin is not backed by nothing. It has a fixed supply and is finitely scarce. Only 21 million bitcoin will ever exist. But how and why is that?
unchained.com
I'll stop with this. It is theoretically possible to reprogram Bitcoin to allow more than 21 million coins, even if improbable. The creator of bitcoin operated under a pseudonym (name checks out) and has not been heard from since 2011. Do you have any idea how many inadvertent backdoors exist in any software, much less potential for creator intended ones? There's a fair amount of risk in just the above, beyond the question of whether it can/should be considered an investment and a currency. I could weave all kinds of possibilities into just the above. It might be a thing for a long time. It might end up being THE thing. It might turn into wooden nickels. In the mean time I may play around with gaming the price via the ETF and see if I hit yahtzee.You're right about one thing: The fiat gains of bitcoin are not the end all be all of bitcoin's value proposition because fiat is a sh*t measuring stick. However, considering the audience, it is often the easiest way to demonstrate to someone a very basic and proven fact: bitcoin works as a savings technology. A more sound way of proving this is by measuring bitcoin's growing purchasing power over time, which also proves that bitcoin works as a savings technology. I'll let you take your personal basket of goods and services and compare how much they cost today compared to five, ten years ago (priced in bitcoin). They get cheaper over time when your unit of account is bitcoin.
Your point that I will push back on: bitcoin is backed by nothing. Here is a helpful article that argues that bitcoin is not backed by nothing. It is a 28 minute read if you have the time:
"Contrary to popular belief, bitcoin is in fact backed by something. It is backed by the only thing that backs any form of money: the credibility of its monetary properties. Money is not a collective hallucination nor merely a belief system. Over the course of history, various mediums have emerged as money, and each time, it has not just been by coincidence. Goods that emerge as money possess unique properties that differentiate them from other market goods. While The Bitcoin Standard provides a more full discussion, monetary goods possess unique properties that make them particularly useful as a means of exchange; these properties include scarcity, durability, divisibility, fungibility and portability, among others. With each emergent money, inherent properties of one medium improve upon and obsolete the monetary properties inherent in a pre-existing form of money, and every time a good has monetized, another has demonetized. Essentially, the relative strengths of one monetary medium out-compete that of another, and bitcoin is no different. It represents a technological advancement in the global competition for money; it is the superior successor to gold and the fiat money systems that leveraged gold’s monetary properties."Bitcoin is Not Backed by Nothing - Unchained
Bitcoin is not backed by nothing. It has a fixed supply and is finitely scarce. Only 21 million bitcoin will ever exist. But how and why is that?
Even though we probably agree on some things, I'm going to respectfully disagree with PBDog that bitcoin is an intelligence test. I know plenty of intelligent people who have yet to grok bitcoin. I dismissed bitcoin from 2010 to 2016. I finally started learning about it in 2016, and I'm still learning today.
I'm glad you are trying to understand bitcoin's value proposition. That is the only reason I try to post thoughtfully on bitcoin on this board: the hope that at least some people on here are honestly curious. That is also why I try to link to resources I find helpful.
River is a bitcoin-only (not crypto) company that has some good articles that try to answer specific questions that many people have:
River Learn
From the basics to advanced concepts, River Learn is your all-in-one Bitcoin education center.
river.com
My #1 book recommendation right now is Broken Money by Lyn Alden. It actually isn't a bitcoin book. It addresses the current state of money and how we got here. She then presents bitcoin as a possible solution at the end of the book:
Now Available: Broken Money
I’m excited to announce that my new book, Broken Money, is now available. It can be purchased in hardcover, paperback, ebook, and audiobook formats on Amazon here. It’s also available at Barnes & Noble here, and you can ask your local bookstore to order it for you. It can also be purchased at...
www.lynalden.com
I did not intend anything with the USD reference….I think maybe you read too much into it. That’s simply the most common medium of exchange, so that’s what I used for the example.
I could have rephrased it and said if 1 bitcoin is suddenly equivalent to a hoard of bananas, what should I do? Or if its a beach house in the Maldives, what should I do? Same thought process.
I have yet to hear a financial case for what a unit of BTC is actually worth. In USD or foreign currency or anything else. I don’t know how to appraise a unit of it…..no clue. And if I don’t know that, how am I to know if I want it, or when the optimal times are to convert currency to it in order procure it even if I do decide I want it?
That was the intent behind the questions.
I hear you saying that bitcoin is only as reliable as its ability to enforce its 21 million fixed supply. I 100% agree with you.
Ignoring the USD inflation errors, where the true "inherent" value in BTC lies is money laundering. There are lots of criminals with lots of dirty money that are happy to pay a premium to "create" clean money. Those with clean money can take that premium, the same as you could with a legit lottery ticket. But money launderers don't like to long long-hold their cleaning assets, they want cash flow turnover. As long as BTC is rising (or perceived to rise back in the face of a crash), then they love it. But WHEN BTC is no longer perceived that way, even just perceived to have a stable value, then other coins or methods will look more attractive. That will likely spur a run and a crash. BTC may survive and repeat the cycle. Maybe not.
I don't see any change in its utility for money laundering on the horizon (it's actually been curtailed a bit already), so I'm fine to DCA into it if it crashes soon. But I see no value in buying it while it's high, too much risk.
Yea, I got you. My point was that you can ask the same question about the US dollar and get roughly the same answer. You are trying to value bitcoin as a productive asset and by that metric, it's a loser, just like the USD is. In reality, Bitcoin is a medium of exchange/currency. It's perfectly reasonable to say I am not going to make any currency plays; I'd rather store my assets in productive assets. That's more or less my position. But you don't need to ask your questions about bitcoin to get to that answer. If I were going to make a currency play, I would bet on bitcoin. The reason I'm not making a currency play is that bitcoin has a risk of going to zero and I'm not willing to put enough of my assets at risk at this point to make a difference. I don't think bitcoin is going to zero, but it's also unclear to me what happens if/when bitcoin actually becomes used as a currency instead of a speculative investment. In theory it should roughly gain the inflation rate over time against whatever currency you are comparing it too. But until it's supply is maxed out, it could gain much more or much less than that. I'd rather just take my risks with productive assets.
I disagree with this. I don't hate bitcoin, I own some. But, like I said, it's an investment. I take some earnings here and there, I DCA, it's just like any other stock I own. I think it's a really popular stock right now. I think in the future, it will become more than a stock. It's great that there are BTC ATMs around now. It's great that some countries use it for currency. It's great that you can trade it almost anywhere. It's come a long way. It still has a long way to go before it provides the financial freedom that its evangelizers preach. It's kind of like EVs. For now, it fits a nice niche, and it's useful. In the future, it could be more. But the infrastructure isn't there yet. Will it ever be? I don't know. So, as a result, I think a mixture is the best bet for the foreseeable future. I do think the attitude between true "believers" and "never bitcoiners" is ridiculous nonsense though. It's toxic.
For me, the question is - if my employer offered to pay me in BTC instead of USD for the rest of my career, starting today, would I take it? That's an emphatic "No.". While it's nice to think of my salary mooning over the next year, I simply can't afford to have it cut by 60-80% over that same time frame. It's still too volatile. Add to that, everyone's emergency stash should be a mix of cash and gold/silver. In the event of a natural disaster, or EMP event, that takes out power/internet for weeks, or longer, you have to have something that you can put in your pocket and take to the store to buy stuff. Or, in an even worse event, you need something you can hand to a neighbor or whatever. You can't pull a bitcoin out of your pocket and exchange it for goods. Yeah, same as a credit/debit card.
Then there's the more thought provoking stuff. How will world governments acts towards it in the future? Sure, it's all fine and dandy now since it's still a smaller player. But do you think the US, Russia, and other world powers are just going to not let it be regulated? Will they sit back and let it replace "their" currency? I know that is a major selling point of cryptocurrency - the governments can't regulate it or mess it up. Let me just reply to that with a healthy guffaw. They can screw up anything they set their mind to.
It's here, most likely to stay. So yeah, learn about it, own some, stay aware and be prepared. At the same time, it's got a long way to go to full utility. For now, it's like a next-level stock or commodity to the vast majority of people.
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