OT: Does the IBIT ETF Change anyone's mind about investing in bitcoin?
- Thread starter horshack.sixpack
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The question of preference as a store of value is not, "Would I rather be paid in fiat or bitcoin?" The question is, "Which would I rather hold for 5+ years?"
you gotta do your own research - no one can convince you. when you get it you get it
look into the strike app, el salvador monetary policy, general cross border transaction fees, peer to peer fees, demand vs supply, btc governance vs govt issue
Yes, that is the question you have to ask if you want the answer to be Bitcoin. But ask me the same question about Apple stock, or Amazon stock, or any of the big 3 stock markets in general. So, yes, I'd rather store my money in the stock market than the bank. The difference is, the stock market doesn't have designs on replacing fiat currency. It's a store of value FOR fiat currency. The same as BTC for the vast majority of people. People aren't exactly fleeing from the markets to BTC, which is what I guess you were insinuating.
You’re assuming I haven’t already done plenty of research. Trust me, I have. And I’ve come away with far more questions than answers.
Ultimately, I’m not a Bitcoin doubter or skeptic. I’m a complete agnostic. But I struggle very much to find the data to support the notion that taking a position in BTC is worth anything more than just diversification of assets.
As a “store of value”, BTC has underperformed gold for 3 years running. As an “inflation hedge”, BTC’s value has not performed in that capacity at all in the highest 3 consecutive years of inflation in quite awhile. A BTC valued around $50k in Feb 2021 would need to be worth $58,000 USD today just to have the same purchasing power. Its nowhere near that. In fact, it has even less unadjusted purchasing power than it did in 2021.
probably not for you - some get it some don’t. maybe look into centennial coin collections instead
I could say the exact same thing to you. We are two sides of the same coin (pun intended). Only difference is I don’t shout from the rooftops about the virtues of something when I don’t actually don’t know a damn thing about said virtues.
As a long-term investor, I only look at comparisons of 5+ years. If you look at comparisons of 1-14 years, 3 years is the only time period that bitcoin didn't outperform gold and the S&P 500.
The monetary expansion started Q1 2020 (COVID).
M2
View data of a measure of the U.S. money supply that includes all components of M1 plus several less-liquid assets.
fred.stlouisfed.org
Not really concerned if bitcoin is fungible or not. Buy it on the dips and sell on the way up or buy a fury beeny thing does it matter if you’re making money? Me personally I don’t fool with bitcoin…more so watch bitcoin and everything follows. I’m not sure why everyone is so negative on crypto when everyone would like to make money. Is the gold you bought under your pillow? My crypto isn’t either, but I can sell or buy it on coinbase in an instant…..how many on here gamble? Same as trading stocks, gambling or crypto. Just have to be smart
I will also add I’m a conspiracy guy….don’t trust the gubment, so why not figured crypto. I’m not a rich guy, put $500 in and make $20 a week….spending money. What if? Crypto is not for the weak at heart, you never know what the high or low is. Find a couple of good projects with lots of zeroes…it’s a gamble. Might as well put $500 into small caps and wait 3 years or …….
So long as I hear how many dollars a bitcoin is worth, I know which side I'm stickin' to. If I ever start hearing how many bitcoins a dollar is worth...
Dawgstudent - We need an eyeroll emoji for when someone makes a stupid, condescending, pointless comment like this one.
No, no. This is what we do in America today. Someone doesn't agree with me? Well, I'm smart, so that must make them stupid. And I HAVE to tell them they're stupid.
You make a great argument for my position. It is an investment. You said so yourself. And, I agree with you, it's a great investment!As a long-term investor, I only look at comparisons of 5+ years. If you look at comparisons of 1-14 years, 3 years is the only time period that bitcoin didn't outperform gold and the S&P 500.
View attachment 529116
The monetary expansion started Q1 2020 (COVID).
Bitcoin is up over 400% since this monetary expansion started. This includes the 2022 bear market.M2
View data of a measure of the U.S. money supply that includes all components of M1 plus several less-liquid assets.fred.stlouisfed.org
No argument here. Unfortunately, I don’t have much choice on whether or not I want to have at least some exposure to US dollars.
Totally agree…..I only bring it up because of what has been shared by the Bitcoin supporters how its up 8 million percent since inception or whatever. That’s not a sustainable path. Everyone that is ever going to get pure wealth from holding BTC has almost assuredly already done so.
The other element here is will there ever be a compelling utility use for BTC that puts either or both of two things in play:
1) A broad price point of use that is not constantly adjusted with BTC’s valuation in USD.
2) An abundance of goods / services available with BTC exclusivity.
There is no indication those things to be on the horizon, which makes it different from just about every other currency there is.
Also agree. I don’t think BTC goes to zero. I think it more or less will follow the broader “store of value” market….mainly precious metals. But there’s a non-0% chance it could go belly up, which is enough to keep most folks from treating their stake as anything more than novelty.
Same.
However, one thing I will say is that I do find it fairly remarkable that another asset with properties similar to gold / precious metals in many respects was essentially created out of thin air by human innovation. Even if that’s all it ever becomes, its still pretty damn cool and interesting to me in that respect. And I think that’s probably the clubhouse leader as far as long term range of outcomes.
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You seem pretty reasonable about all this. Can you at least see the manipulative way that the data above is being presented?As a long-term investor, I only look at comparisons of 5+ years. If you look at comparisons of 1-14 years, 3 years is the only time period that bitcoin didn't outperform gold and the S&P 500.
View attachment 529116
The monetary expansion started Q1 2020 (COVID).
Bitcoin is up over 400% since this monetary expansion started. This includes the 2022 bear market.M2
View data of a measure of the U.S. money supply that includes all components of M1 plus several less-liquid assets.fred.stlouisfed.org
For starters, its showing total return instead of annualized rate of return. This greatly favors whatever item of comparison started at the lowest point, and ignores volitility the most. For something that in its infancy was practically worthless, this is going to greatly skew its outlook.
If I did a chart showing the price of Apple stock starting in 2004 (pre-iPhone) and ending in 2014, the annualized rate of return if that period was 35%….which is ungodly. But its still nothing close to the 5875% TOTAL return it experienced over the same period.
Now, lets look at the next 10 years. The annualized rate of return from 2024 until today dropped to 22.5% from the previous 10 year period. Still outstanding. Not quite as good as 35%, but nobody’s crying over 20% plus gains. But the overall return? Dropped from 5875% from the previous decade down to 980%. Again, still outstanding, but it just shows how much data presentation can change the facts to show what the presenter wants you to see. One metric says Apple’s 2014-2024 was about 70% as good as its 2004-2014. The other says it wasn’t even 20% as good. The starting value being super low makes everything look better than it is.
And as you can tell, if you pick any big tech stock from the past 20 years, you can make the data say its > Bitcoin if you choose the right comparison frame.
A simple question for you. Do you think, truly, that 1 BTC is going to be worth $884 TRILLION dollars, just 15 years from now? Because, that is what will have to happen for the total return of Years 16-30 matching that of Years 1-15.
I agree that CAGR is more relevant than ROI. Again, looking at 1-14 year periods, 3 years is the only period that bitcoin didn't outperform gold and the S&P 500.
Bitcoin also outperforms the S&P 500, gold, and long-term US bonds over the long-term when you compare their Shape ratios, which adjusts for risk (volatility):
The Case for Bitcoin
Keep track of the macro environment and where Bitcoin sits within it. CaseBitcoin provides key stats, a growing library of the best Bitcoin investment content that makes the case for Bitcoin, and day-to-day coverage of why more and more people are seeking refuge in Bitcoin.
casebitcoin.com
Great. When I get that time machine and the chance to go back and buy bitcoin 1-14 years ago, then that chart will start to mean something.I agree that CAGR is more relevant than ROI. Again, looking at 1-14 year periods, 3 years is the only period that bitcoin didn't outperform gold and the S&P 500.
View attachment 529348
Bitcoin also outperforms the S&P 500, gold, and long-term US bonds over the long-term when you compare their Shape ratios, which adjusts for risk (volatility):
The Case for Bitcoin
Keep track of the macro environment and where Bitcoin sits within it. CaseBitcoin provides key stats, a growing library of the best Bitcoin investment content that makes the case for Bitcoin, and day-to-day coverage of why more and more people are seeking refuge in Bitcoin.
You are far from the first person to think market irrationality is something other than it is. Rationality always comes around though.
I put a little play money in the ETF. I've single handedly assured that the founder will turn up for the first time since 2011, scold us on what a bunch of gullible idiots we are for thinking that a computer program algorithm magically creates value and then hit the hidden kill switch on the machine.***
I will keep the Pack posted on my real life gains, reported in fiat USD at a frequency of whenever I think about it sometime in the future or anyone asks. I also may disappear from face of the internet GameStop style like @fishwater99...
Thank you. Very good chart here. And yes, the Bitcoin CAGR has exceeded the S&P and gold over that horizon.I agree that CAGR is more relevant than ROI. Again, looking at 1-14 year periods, 3 years is the only period that bitcoin didn't outperform gold and the S&P 500.
View attachment 529348
Bitcoin also outperforms the S&P 500, gold, and long-term US bonds over the long-term when you compare their Shape ratios, which adjusts for risk (volatility):
The Case for Bitcoin
Keep track of the macro environment and where Bitcoin sits within it. CaseBitcoin provides key stats, a growing library of the best Bitcoin investment content that makes the case for Bitcoin, and day-to-day coverage of why more and more people are seeking refuge in Bitcoin.
But, note the trends. S&P was a very stable 11-13% return year over year until COVID. Gold was a little more up and down, but still stayed in a pretty stable 4-6% range. Bitcoin started with crazy high CAGR….but it has lowered pretty consistently on a linear trend as it has continued to mature. The BTC RoR trend seems to me to be regressing towards a mean as the world’s awareness of it has grown, and certain levels of both optimism and pessimism begin getting stripped away as its true nature becomes more apparent.
I really don’t pretend to know the long view. But if I was forced to predict one, I would surmise that within 3-4 years it settles into a stable pattern of CAGR in the 5-8% range. Could mirror gold, but perhaps be a little better. There are certainly far worse outcomes possible from any form of investment….currency or otherwise. So I think anyone who would throw that in the face of a BTC truther would be quite shortsighted.
And I saw you said earlier that you became a believer in 2016. If that’s true and you acted on your intuition then and got a nice qty of BTC…..then, sincerely, congratulations. I’m legitimately happy for you and you should 100% keep holding until some shock to the system happens and forces your hand.
I’d only say that while you used some combination of great research and insight on the future, and had the fortune that you were on the front end of a historic economic breakthrough….you should perhaps exercise caution in assuming that another run up in the next 15 years even 25% as good as the initial years is possible….particularly when advising others. Lightning doesn’t tend to ever strike twice to that extent in the world of investing or economics in general. The world has changed a lot around BTC in 15 years (which as a time period is a hair on a gnat’s áss as far as the global economic time continuum goes, anyway). BTC is no longer a niche market. It’s mainstream now. Big institutional firms and government are both involved in both positive and negative ways. And when that happens….things tend to ride the level path….for better or worse. “The man” has always gotta 17 up a good thing….amirite?
The TLDR: BTC isn’t worthless. It has merits in particular parts of certain people’s portfolio. And for a very select few, it has some utility as actual currency. But it is no longer the lottery ticket that it was in 2016, either….and never will be again. The truth, as usual, lies far in between the talking points of both the truthers and the skeptics.
Now, back to my collection of rare Buffalo nickels and Sacajawea quarters. @PBDog got his thumb drive stuck in the CC slot of a snack machine again. Gotta burn through more of these damn things to bail him out and get him that Snickers***
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Bump because it felt new enough not to start a new thread. This reflects how I see it:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-isnt-suitable-as-payment-or-investment-ecb-says-0e6ffb76
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-isnt-suitable-as-payment-or-investment-ecb-says-0e6ffb76
Also yesterday:
I believe the inevitable choice is CBDC vs. bitcoin. China will choose CBDC. I believe bitcoin is the American choice.
There is a good book that makes this case:
Bitcoin and the American Dream: The New Monetary Technology Transcending Our Political Divide
china already has the digital yuan and they can monitor and limit how it is spent. that won’t happen here in our lifetime. ecb is nervous and nigeria just blocked their citizens from access. reddit included in their filing they hold btc and other cryptos in their treasury. bitcoin is inevitable. fortunately i loaded my bags sub20 and i continue to buy the top.
Very unlikely I'd hold the position of a multi-business failure and multi-bankruptcy guy up as a positive sign. Of course if Trump changes his position on anything it's because Putin wiggled his index finger...
Trump's position is that he likes the dollar.
Where do you think Trump is on this bell curve? Where are you?
I still don’t understand bitcoin, but I’ve been telling y’all about ET for a while. It pays dividends in American dollars, so that may not work for some of y’all, but you can use those to buy bitcoins
You are being kind calling that a position. Was more of his typical word salad response to a question that's too complex for him to answer.
Where’s Trump on the bell curve? Probably at the top of it. Because according to him, that bell curve looks like a side boob, and the top is the nipple. He’s grabbing that curve right by the nipple, and it will love him for it because he’s a star. All the smartest and best bell curve people agree that this is the case.
Plus 10% dividends. Tell me your return when you cash out or get a return of any kind.
191% - i’ll likely sell at the end of this bull cycle which usually coincides when QE peaks
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