OT: Electricity demand

[dorndawg]

This sounds... pretty bad & getting worse. I've been holding off getting a whole-home generator, but I think it's time? Gift link, so should work if you don't have an account.


Something unusual is happening in America. Demand for electricity, which has stayed largely flat for two decades, has begun to surge.

Over the past year, electric utilities have nearly doubled their forecasts of how much additional power they’ll need by 2028 as they confront an unexpected explosion in the number of data centers, an abrupt resurgence in manufacturing driven by new federal laws, and millions of electric vehicles being plugged in.

Many power companies were already struggling to keep the lights on, especially during extreme weather, and say the strain on grids will only increase. Peak demand in the summer is projected to grow by 38,000 megawatts nationwide in the next five years, according to an analysis by the consulting firm Grid Strategies, which is like adding another California to the grid.

A New Surge in Power Use Is Threatening U.S. Climate Goals

A boom in data centers and factories is straining electric grids and propping up fossil fuels.

www.nytimes.com

 

[johnson86-1]

This sounds... pretty bad & getting worse. I've been holding off getting a whole-home generator, but I think it's time? Gift link, so should work if you don't have an account.


Something unusual is happening in America. Demand for electricity, which has stayed largely flat for two decades, has begun to surge.

Over the past year, electric utilities have nearly doubled their forecasts of how much additional power they’ll need by 2028 as they confront an unexpected explosion in the number of data centers, an abrupt resurgence in manufacturing driven by new federal laws, and millions of electric vehicles being plugged in.

Many power companies were already struggling to keep the lights on, especially during extreme weather, and say the strain on grids will only increase. Peak demand in the summer is projected to grow by 38,000 megawatts nationwide in the next five years, according to an analysis by the consulting firm Grid Strategies, which is like adding another California to the grid.

A New Surge in Power Use Is Threatening U.S. Climate Goals

A boom in data centers and factories is straining electric grids and propping up fossil fuels.

www.nytimes.com

It is but it's easily fixable if we just stop making it a problem. Realistically getting the infrastructure built in the northeast and California is probably going to be politically difficult. But politics in the rest of the country should be manageable if enviro-religious zealots aren't able to use lawfare to prevent new projects.

We do have some low hanging fruit with residential loads. The article is ignorant/misleading because it acts like it's utilities that don't like interruptible load when it's consumers that want their air condition to run in the hottest part of the day and their back up strip heating to work in the coldest part of the night. But at the end of the day, even though people will hate it, there is peak shaving available if we insist on making things miserable.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Are you saying this drastic push to make cars electric may have been putting the cart before the horse?

 

[dorndawg]

Are you saying this drastic push to make cars electric may have been putting the cart before the horse?

From the article, that is a fairly distant 3rd problem. Data centers + increased manufacturing are larger drivers of the increase.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

From the article, that is a fairly distant 3rd problem. Data centers + increased manufacturing are larger drivers of the increase.

I didn’t want to waste the electricity by clicking on the link. I’m conservation minded

 

[dorndawg]

But at the end of the day, even though people will hate it, there is peak shaving available if we insist on making things miserable.

Good luck with that. Jimmy Carter asked Americans to maybe put a sweater on nearly 50 years ago, and all hell broke loose.

 

[dudehead]

Bit coin miners doesn't help.

 

[johnson86-1]

Good luck with that. Jimmy Carter asked Americans to maybe put a sweater on nearly 50 years ago, and all hell broke loose.

It will be politically more viable than shutting down hospitals or factories. Definitely not politically viable if you give people a choice, but if you just ensure there isn't enough capacity to meet demand, that is what will get cut.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Sounds to me like electrical engineering and construction is a good field to be in for the coming generation.

 

[bolddogge]

Solution: Have each undocumented immigrant pedal a stationary bike hooked to a generator for 8 hours a day, 5 days a week until their court date. You'll solve one problem for sure, but I'm not sure which one.

 

[MStateU]

Cheap, Reliable, Abundant....Coal. Fire them back up.

 

[mstateglfr]

We do have some low hanging fruit with residential loads. The article is ignorant/misleading because it acts like it's utilities that don't like interruptible load when it's consumers that want their air condition to run in the hottest part of the day and their back up strip heating to work in the coldest part of the night. But at the end of the day, even though people will hate it, there is peak shaving available if we insist on making things miserable.

Based on how our country acts when they are asked to make any change that would lead to a possible small sacrifice in behaviors, I cant imagine who would actually agree to do this at the governmental level.
Whoever does it would receive a flood of death threats, be stalked, etc. Nobody in their right mind should agree to do such a thing because of the meltdown fallout.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

We have easily 500 years of Natural Gas available.

 

[Dawghouse]

 

[NashLA]

Based on how our country acts when they are asked to make any change that would lead to a possible small sacrifice in behaviors, I cant imagine who would actually agree to do this at the governmental level.
Whoever does it would receive a flood of death threats, be stalked, etc. Nobody in their right mind should agree to do such a thing because of the meltdown fallout.

It's hard not to resent the eco-religious nut jobs who freak out, melt-down and engage in lawfare against any sane energy policy involving clean nuclear energy, then clearly enjoy demanding everyone to be martyrs to their pie-in-the-sky wind and solar ambitions.

 

[kired]

Cheap, Reliable, Abundant....Coal. Fire them back up.

Nah, just need to blow the wind more and order more sunny days

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Good luck with that. Jimmy Carter asked Americans to maybe put a sweater on nearly 50 years ago, and all hell broke loose.

This is 'murica. Don't nobody tell me what to do... or even suggest that it might be good to amend some bad habits.

 

[dorndawg]

It's hard not to resent the eco-religious nut jobs who freak out, melt-down and engage in lawfare against any sane energy policy involving clean nuclear energy, then clearly enjoy demanding everyone to be martyrs to their pie-in-the-sky wind and solar ambitions.

When it comes to energy, I'm all-of-the-above. That said, we already get a tremendous amount of power from nuclear and renewables. Not for nothing, one way of looking at solar is it is nuclear, just a relatively safe 93 million miles away.


U.S. utility-scale electricity generation by source, amount, and share of total in 2023

Energy source	Billion kWh	Share of total
Total - all sources	4,178
Fossil fuels (total)	2,505	60.0%
Natural gas	1,802	43.1%
Coal	675	16.2%
Petroleum (total)	16	0.4%
Petroleum liquids	12	0.3%
Petroleum coke	5	0.1%
Other gases3	11	0.3%
Nuclear	775	18.6%
Renewables (total)	894	21.4%
Wind	425	10.2%
Hydropower	240	5.7%
Solar (total)	165	3.9%
Photovoltaic	162	3.9%
Solar thermal	3	0.1%
Biomass (total)	47	1.1%
Wood	31	0.8%
Landfill gas	8	0.2%
Municipal solid waste (biogenic)	6	0.1%
Other biomass waste	2	0.1%
Geothermal	16	0.4%
Pumped storage hydropower4	-6	-0.1%
Other sources5	10	0.2%

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Cheap, Reliable, Abundant....Coal. Fire them back up.

Nuclear is the obvious answer, but it's not popular and it takes quite a bit of time to build and go live.

 

[dorndawg]

Nuclear is the obvious answer, but it's not popular and it takes quite a bit of time to build and go live.

I agree. A big nuclear plant would probably cost $10 billion and 15 years to build. By the time every entity involved in the process wets their beak to the tune of 20% or more profit, the numbers just don't work.

We've gotten so good at capitalism we can't do big projects anymore.

 

[johnson86-1]

It's hard not to resent the eco-religious nut jobs who freak out, melt-down and engage in lawfare against any sane energy policy involving clean nuclear energy, then clearly enjoy demanding everyone to be martyrs to their pie-in-the-sky wind and solar ambitions.

They're not asking anybody to be martyrs to their ambitions. They are basically religious nuts, but instead of flaying themselves to fend off the plague, they want other people to suffer to protect them from mother gaia's wrath.

Basically makes you realize how wise the cultures were that just sacrificed one virgin each year in the volcano to appease the gods. Only had to have one person die instead of many, and they also gave girls an incentive to put out. If only our enviro-religious nuts could be so wise.

 

[mstateglfr]

It's hard not to resent the eco-religious nut jobs who freak out, melt-down and engage in lawfare against any sane energy policy involving clean nuclear energy, then clearly enjoy demanding everyone to be martyrs to their pie-in-the-sky wind and solar ambitions.

Not sure why this is a response to my post or how its related to the post I responded to, but OK then.
I do not oppose the general idea of energy created from nuclear sites and wish it were a realistic option to build more, in the right conditions.

I have noticed that the hyper-vocal groups on both sides of energy discussions who freak out over specific ideas are generally all unreasonable.

- People that for years and years claimed climate change isnt real, then since accepted its real and argue humans arent contributing?- unreasonable.
- People that think wind farms everywhere will save the planet?- unreasonable.
- People that continue to push for increased production of coal and oil and base their agenda on cherry picked examples of alternative energy not working/being enough?- unreasonable.
- People that refuse to even listen to nuclear power possibilities and claim it isnt based on emotion?- unreasonable.
- People that try to claim EVs are a scame because battery materials require mining, without actually listing differences in lifespan use?- unreasonable.
- People that want forms of alternative energy, but dont want them within the town/metro/region?- unreasonable.
- People that take joy in alternative energy products not performing as intended?- unreasonable.
- People that force their view/bias on energy production into conversations where it doesnt fit?- unreasonable.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

I agree. A big nuclear plant would probably cost $10 billion and 15 years to build. By the time every entity involved in the process wets their beak to the tune of 20% or more profit, the numbers just don't work.

We've gotten so good at capitalism bureaucracy we can't do big projects anymore.

FIFY

 

[chuckster.sixpack]

We have easily 500 years of Natural Gas available.

Hence the number of gas power plants and LNG export facilities either being built or on the horizon.

 

[dorndawg]

FIFY

This is part of it. It's far from the only culprit. It's entirely possible to build a nuclear plant today from a regulatory standpoint. As you can see from this article, government at the federal and state level champion it. Cost over-runs and outright stealing are far larger concerns.

Timeline: How Georgia and South Carolina nuclear reactors ran so far off course

The first of two nuclear reactors in Georgia is generating electricity and could be days away from achieving full-power operation. But the new units at Georgia Power Co.’s Plant Vogtle are $17 billion over budget and running seven years late. Customers of multiple Georgia utilities are already...

apnews.com

 

[GloryDawg]

Nuclear is the obvious answer, but it's not popular and it takes quite a bit of time to build and go live.

The United States have 11 active-duty Aircraft carriers all are fueled by nuclear power. I guess Three Mile Island is the great fear factor stopping them being built. It is very doable. Just don't build them by the ocean where tidal waves can reap havoc on them.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

 

[thatsbaseball]

We'll build more nuke plants when the petroleum lobby tells the pols it's OK.

 

[Dawgzilla2]

I blame Bitcoin.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

This is part of it. It's far from the only culprit. It's entirely possible to build a nuclear plant today from a regulatory standpoint. As you can see from this article, government at the federal and state level champion it. Cost over-runs and outright stealing are far larger concerns.

Timeline: How Georgia and South Carolina nuclear reactors ran so far off course

The first of two nuclear reactors in Georgia is generating electricity and could be days away from achieving full-power operation. But the new units at Georgia Power Co.’s Plant Vogtle are $17 billion over budget and running seven years late. Customers of multiple Georgia utilities are already...

apnews.com

I am, unfortunately, acutely aware of this fiasco as a CSRA (Central Savannah River Area) resident.

 

[pseudonym]

Energy use per person vs. GDP per capita

Energy refers to primary energy, measured in kilowatt-hours per person, using the substitution method. Gross domestic product (GDP) is adjusted for inflation and differences in the cost of living between countries.

ourworldindata.org

 

[johnson86-1]

- People that for years and years claimed climate change isnt real, then since accepted its real and argue humans arent contributing?- unreasonable.

This is not a real thing. Sure, there are people that deny that there were ever ice ages or that dinosaurs existed, but those people have never had meaningful influence. There have been more people in congress worried about Guam flipping over than there have been in congress that openly denied believing in ice ages.

 

[maroonmadman]

I have a relative that is a corporate pilot for Entergy and he tells me that nuclear plants are in the discussion but not on the level many of us think. The bigwigs are talking "mini nukes" or power plants roughly the size of those found in nuclear aircraft carriers, ones that could power a city of roughly 250K or so. It will remain to be seen whether Entergy goes that route as their track record of operating nukes is pretty spotty as this article explains. Entergy’s Grand Gulf Is Causing Higher Electricity Bills for Its Customers – Bigger Pie Forum I'm a fan of nuclear power but at the same time I realize this isn't an area where short cuts need to be taken. The nuclear genie is one best kept bottled up, we don't need to let it loose to run amok. We need more research towards fusion and not fission.

 

[mstateglfr]

This is not a real thing. Sure, there are people that deny that there were ever ice ages or that dinosaurs existed, but those people have never had meaningful influence. There have been more people in congress worried about Guam flipping over than there have been in congress that openly denied believing in ice ages.

If you havent seen/read/heard countless people in the Executive branch, Legislative branch, state Gov offices, state legislative offices, and private business claim over the last 20 year that climate change isnt real, you have been in a 17ing coma or you have a willing ignorance that is as wide as it is deep.

If you havent seen/read/heard countless people who used to deny climate change move their argument to 'yes it is happening, but it is doubtful that we are contributing because the planet has natural periods of warming and cooling.' then you have been in a 17ing coma or you have a willing ignorance that is as wide as it is deep.


I dont know why you mention ice age denial or dinosaur denial. That is not what I was referring to in any way.
You ended your post by pointing out that people in Congress dont openly deny ice ages existed in history. Do you think you made a point by saying that? I am unsure why you responded to my post with that comment. Whether or not there are people in Congress that dont believe in ice ages has nothing to do with what I was referring to in the comment you quoted.

 

[johnson86-1]

If you havent seen/read/heard countless people in the Executive branch, Legislative branch, state Gov offices, state legislative offices, and private business claim over the last 20 year that climate change isnt real, you have been in a 17ing coma or you have a willing ignorance that is as wide as it is deep.

If you havent seen/read/heard countless people who used to deny climate change move their argument to 'yes it is happening, but it is doubtful that we are contributing because the planet has natural periods of warming and cooling.' then you have been in a 17ing coma or you have a willing ignorance that is as wide as it is deep.


I dont know why you mention ice age denial or dinosaur denial. That is not what I was referring to in any way.
You ended your post by pointing out that people in Congress dont openly deny ice ages existed in history. Do you think you made a point by saying that? I am unsure why you responded to my post with that comment. Whether or not there are people in Congress that dont believe in ice ages has nothing to do with what I was referring to in the comment you quoted.

You are going to accuse other people of willing ignorance? While you take the position that "countless people" over the last 20 years have claimed that climate doesn't change?

As dense as you pretend to be, I think even you can realize that that's not what anybody has ever claimed, and they have always been disputing whether humans are a major contributor to global climate change and/or whether any climate change we are experiencing is going to be as harmful as the policies being proposed to mitigate it.

 

[57stratdawg]

Buckle up. America post-Pandemic is going to look a lot different than pre.

 

[leeinator]

Want to make everything electric?.............let's start with the southern border fence.

 

[dorndawg]

You are going to accuse other people of willing ignorance? While you take the position that "countless people" over the last 20 years have claimed that climate doesn't change?

As dense as you pretend to be, I think even you can realize that that's not what anybody has ever claimed, and they have always been disputing whether humans are a major contributor to global climate change and/or whether any climate change we are experiencing is going to be as harmful as the policies being proposed to mitigate it.

"Willing Ignorance" would be a good name for the Sixpackspeak 30-for-30

 

[mstateglfr]

You are going to accuse other people of willing ignorance? While you take the position that "countless people" over the last 20 years have claimed that climate doesn't change?

As dense as you pretend to be, I think even you can realize that that's not what anybody has ever claimed, and they have always been disputing whether humans are a major contributor to global climate change and/or whether any climate change we are experiencing is going to be as harmful as the policies being proposed to mitigate it.

HolyHell, ^ this is a straight up attempt to rewrite reality and history.

We are only 9 years removed from a Senator bringing a snowball down to the floor and using it as proof that global warming isn't real.

If you really don't realize or remember how many people in various levels of government have straight up denied climate change as real thru the last few decades, I doubt actual quotes would help you realize reality.

 

[dorndawg]

Want to make everything electric?.............let's start with the southern border fence.

You seem nice.