OT: Home prices fell for first time in 3 years.. Here it comes?

[dorndawg]

Consumption in 2019 before the pandemic was more than 2021 and 2022 but average gas price was 2.64.

2.64 in 2019 = 3.06 in 2022 https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

Gas prices today at multiple Rankin county locations: 3.09 https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/mississippi/jackson

 

[johnson86-1]

Where do you live? I’m on the coast and anything halfway decent hitting the market is gone within 48 hours with multiple offers higher than asking price.

My brother lives in rural Lincoln County and 2 weeks ago he put in an offer over asking price plus all closing costs and was outbid by $25k. The house was on the market for one day.

I’m not sure where you live but I’m not seeing or hearing of this anywhere.

I don't think rural Lincoln County tells you anything about anything, but the Coast I suspect is still getting transplants and experiencing enough population growth to suck up available inventory. Was there the other day and saw a California tag in a very nice, but not beach or water neighborhood (i.e., not a military person and not the typical relocation area south of tracks or on the backbay or a canal). Person in the neighborhood said you see a lot more california tags in the new tract home developments. Some of those are military, but a lot are former california residents that see advertisements for a pretty decent sized house that's new for under $350k and are thrilled with it. Even though it may not be what people down there think of as a nice neighborhood, these are people that have been paying thousands in rent (or paying a mortgage that is twice the size) for a much older, much smaller house and they are thrilled with it.

 

[DogStuckAtUM.sixpack]

Here in West Nashville, a 950 square foot house up the street from us just sold for $480,000 in July.

 

[johnson86-1]

I have an interest in the Nashville market. Large builders there that I know of have recently slowed down and stopped just tossing up spec homes as fast as they can. They are still building plenty, but instead of just pushing forward without buyers lined up they are slowing down enough to let buyers pick their own colors/flooring/fixtures, etc. They are still adding staff and going strong, just slowed on the more speculative stuff and building houses in take it or leave it mode.

ETA: I realize Nashville is not a "normal" market.

Well, there is no "normal" market. But if tract home builders even in a market like Nashville are slowing up, then that is just another sign that we don't have a repeat of 2009 on the horizon.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Average home prices are predicted to fall 4% by the end of the year from what I'm seeing. Basically means 6% higher than that time last year.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Nations area?

 

[DogStuckAtUM.sixpack]

Robertson/Charlotte Park.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Some of these builders went through bankruptcy post the last crash and are very in tune with over building. Doesn't mean they will get it "right", but if they fail, it will be in a different way than they failed in 2007-2009 time frame.

 

[GloryDawg]

2.64 in 2019 = 3.06 in 2022 https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

Gas prices today at multiple Rankin county locations: 3.09 https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/mississippi/jackson

More mathmagician trickery like saying inflation is 0% because it didn't go up from the previous month or just because you have two consecutive negative growth of the GDP doesn't necessarily mean you have a recession. There are other things to considered. What you are saying is since inflation is so high compared to cost of gas, gas is cheaper today then it was in 2019. Pull that ******** on someone else. Brother I will take 2019 inflation and gas prices over 2022 inflation and gas prices every time.

 

[ronpolk]

Some of these builders went through bankruptcy post the last crash and are very in tune with over building. Doesn't mean they will get it "right", but if they fail, it will be in a different way than they failed in 2007-2009 time frame.

That and lot inventory is not anywhere close to what was available in 2007. Some banks exited home building entirely but most exited development loans entirely, with exceptions made for prime customers. Developers of subdivisions were required to come up with much more equity to develop lots and that has kept inventory way down.

 

[HotMop]

"Good" properties at a fair price always sell quickly. No matter the market.

All of asking and covering closing cost is the starting point in my market. I'm putting in offers of 100k over and still not getting them. It only takes one determined (or desperate) person.

I've always said that if a property sells in 48 hours, you underpriced it and may have left money on the table.

That's no doubt, house across the street didn't even get listed before it sold. Took the first offer like an idiot. Thanks for the comp bro. :/