U.S. stock-index futures were headed sharply lower Monday evening after the latest developments in Ukraine.https://t.co/2KQd40cESj— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) February 22, 2022
OT: latest developments in Ukraine/markets
- Thread starter Quincy A. Wagstaff
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I noticed; Dow is down 500 points at the moment. Thanks Vlad. Appreciate that.
These seems like buying opportunities though. I don’t see long term US Equities exposure here.
These seems like buying opportunities though. I don’t see long term US Equities exposure here.
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Russian Markets and the Rouble are going to do a lot worse. Be thankful you're not waking up over there tomorrow evening.
Corn and wheat markets could get a little crazy. Ukraine is a huge exporter of corn. Right now Soybeans are trading +.22 and corn is up .06.
I think at this point the market has priced in a full scale invasion. If this doesn’t happen, I think we see a nice bounce.
Personally, leaning towards no full scale invasion at this point. Russia lacks the troops to pacify an area as large as Ukraine and from all indications the people of Ukraine (at least the non eastern part) are largely anti Russia. Additionally, sounds like the US and EU are very willing to arm any insurgents willing to fight Russia. Seems like this could easily turn into a long, very expensive and bloody quagmire for Russia. Regarding costs, also keep in mind that Russia’s GDP is less than the state of Texas.
Here’s a good analysis on the situation I read predicting Russia “settles” for annexing the eastern breakaway provinces, and this is starting to look like a strategic “loss” for Russia:
https://twitter.com/copernicus2013/status/1495936129358520321?s=21
Personally, leaning towards no full scale invasion at this point. Russia lacks the troops to pacify an area as large as Ukraine and from all indications the people of Ukraine (at least the non eastern part) are largely anti Russia. Additionally, sounds like the US and EU are very willing to arm any insurgents willing to fight Russia. Seems like this could easily turn into a long, very expensive and bloody quagmire for Russia. Regarding costs, also keep in mind that Russia’s GDP is less than the state of Texas.
Here’s a good analysis on the situation I read predicting Russia “settles” for annexing the eastern breakaway provinces, and this is starting to look like a strategic “loss” for Russia:
https://twitter.com/copernicus2013/status/1495936129358520321?s=21
Its like a board meeting at Waystar Royco. Logan isnt stepping out of the room, deal with it.
Last time Biden was part of the White House he was the foreign relation guy for Obama. What Putin just did is what he did the last time he invaded the Ukraine and annexed the Crimea in 2014. He figures he will get away with it since he got away with it the last time. If you want to stop that Bastard stop buying his oil. US has the resources to fuel the world. Putin was in check for four years because the US was drilling our asses off. Financially they were on the ropes. They are not in great shape now but will be. They are selling fossil fuel like crazy and starting to fill coffers.
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Seems like a bold move by the Germans this morning
- Germany on Tuesday is taking steps to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia because of Moscow's actions in Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced.
Hope not, I've had my money on the sidelines since 30 Dec, I'm ready to get back to making money!
If you like hearing it yourself instead of being ‘informed’ of what was said…..
https://youtu.be/GjMnTo85S4A
https://youtu.be/GjMnTo85S4A
Good thing he used his power to shut down everything in his control on Inauguration Day, while clearing the way for Nordstream. I guess now the plan is to sanction 10% of the world’s oil supply into the stone ages. Can’t wait for $5/gal gasoline instead of just letting the previous policy roll, not having to count on any of these fools, and still be paying $1.70 right now before all my GetUpside savings
Before I listen...
What will I get from Russian state media via translator that I wouldn't get from western sources?
What will I get from Russian state media via translator that I wouldn't get from western sources?
Technically, your link still just "informs" you of what he said. Hopefully the translation is more trustworthy than the typical news organization but you're still relying on somebody else to tell you what is said.
Just sitting here thinking about that time we had a President impeached for withholding security assistance from Ukraine.
I don't think so. He is following the same track he, and every other Russian leader since Russia became a state, has followed. They consider Ukraine part of Russia. Putin alluded to this recently when he said Kiev was one of the mother cities of Russia, which it absolutely was. Russia considers an independent Ukraine to be an afront, and a threat. The fact that they want to join the EU and NATO makes it worse in Russian eyes. This should not be construed as me saying I support what Russia is doing, I don't. I'm just pointing out the history behind it. It's not just Putin. As to what to do about it: If Russia REALLY wants Ukraine there is absolutely nothing we can do about it short of FULL scale war, with our whole arsenal. What we can do is make it very uncomfortable for them on the international scene. That means no trade at all. We might do it, but the EU won't.
agree - putin knows biden is weaker than obama. he knew the environuts would force a tightening of US production. this is the perfect storm of covid recovery, opec+ reluctance to pump, US majors not pumping more, and colluding with the chinese to put a stanglehold on the energy markets. And now with cypto he doesn't need western banks to participate in the world economy. game theory well played while biden counters with his ho cackling strategy.
All I know is the price at the pump is not a conspiracy. It’s costing me $500/mo right now when I’m not on the road. Twice the cost of at any point in the administration of the last guy. And by all accounts, it’s about to go far higher. The alleged party of the poor sure does seem to be in the business of bankrupting the poor — and then taxing them on it(new $600 forced threshold for all banks including PayPal/cashapp/etc that’s gonna absolutely devastate low income folks)
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Kiev is the mother city of medieval Russia. But has since been a territory of Russian imperialism, as far back as the 1850s and under the guise of their communist state.
Since the breakup of the U.S.S.R., independent Ukraine has weakened Russia's economy and status, making Putin job much tougher. He's still a Megalomaniac.
Gas prices? Putin's about to play a big part in that too. But let's be clear - and this is not a conspiracy, just an economic fact of life:
The root cause of prices right now is not politics, it's the financial pressure on oil companies who've experienced almost of decade of cash-flow losses.
The root cause of prices right now is not politics, it's the financial pressure on oil companies who've experienced almost of decade of cash-flow losses.
Yup. We drive a good bit less than average for a two car family and are hitting $500 a month. Hate to think about the people commuting 15-20 miles.
And it's just so 17ing pointless. We're not meaningfully reducing the amount of oil and gas produced. We're strangling production in the most environmentally conscious (potential) exporter, making it more lucrative for the less environmentally conscious exporters, while not accomplishing anything other than making it harder on poorer folks and making sure some really bad actors have a lot more money and influence to do bad things with.
wait until this summer. there are less refineries than pre-covid, less domestic oil, and incredible pent up demand. The pump price is without full international travel yet. there will be a blow off top about 8/1 then here comes the recession. but at least all the pu55ies are comforted by no more mean tweeting
The part about that that bothers me is to go along with this was/is the initiative to hire 68,000 new IRS auditors/agents/idiots whatever. I can't even fathom the level of ineptness this group will have. There will be a fortune spent by tax payers defending themselves against bogus, baseless audits because the "agent" simply couldn't understand the return.
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everything is politics. the subway riders are embedded in the govt, hedge funds, and institutions. they dont give a **** about your commute. they only care about their religion.
And what does China's buying 100 million tons of coal from the Russians tell you about their intention to help clean up the atmosphere ?
I'm not sure root cause isn't really a helpful way to think about it. Yes, the "root cause" is supply and demand but that's not very edifying nor does it indicate anything for policy.
We have a pretty good bit of demand that is relatively inelastic and stupid and counterproductive politics do a lot to suppress supply, including by directly prohibiting certain production activities, imposing extra costs on them and increasing the risk of them with arbitrary and unreliable policies. So politics has an outsized impact on pricing even though it's only reducing the supply "a little".
A great example of how stupid the environmental movement(s) are in developed countries. They have effectively shut down coal fired generation in countries that can burn it cleanly and were at least working on CO2 capture, and made coal that much cheaper for the country that doesn't even really control SO2, NOx, mercury, or particulate matter and certainly isn't going to worry about CO2 capture. But they get to feel good about themselves and at the end of the day, I guess that's what matters to them.
Devil's advocate
First, to be fair, the unpredictability of the Biden admin on oil and gas is slowing down domestic production rebound. Uncertainty is bad for any market. No argument.
That said, there's not a ton policy wise out there that has impacted or is impacting current prices. Drillers stockpiled permits before the current administration, and believe it or not, the Biden admin is outpacing the Trump admin on issuing Federal drilling permits. Drillers can drill - they just aren't. Keystone got the Fox talking points, but that thing would still be under construction right now - not helping your $500/mo.
The issue as it see it is the producers are sitting on the permits happy to recover lost profits before making any further capital investments. I get it. They got hammered with the demand bottom fell - mothballed a bunch of stuff to ride it out - and now are slow to catch back up to demand while building back up cash reserves. That kills us at the pump, but I get why they are doing it for now. Eventually, we will get equilibrium after the unprecedented pandemic disruption. But if there's any beef for Biden, I'd say it needs to be focused on him not breaking away from progressives during unprecedented times. If he would come out and say "Look, I'm all for climate change reforms, but the global economy just got its **** kicked and markets are confused and reacting slowly. I can't rock the boat right now and families are pinched - expect no policy changes from this admin until we recover fully". How much would that help? I don't know, but it would provide a little more certainty and needs to happen.
But this whole "Biden made the gas go up! Trump made us independent!" is silly.
Just look at the trends over time. Pretty steady since '06, then COVID.
EIA expects U.S. petroleum trade to shift toward net imports during 2022 - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
First, to be fair, the unpredictability of the Biden admin on oil and gas is slowing down domestic production rebound. Uncertainty is bad for any market. No argument.
That said, there's not a ton policy wise out there that has impacted or is impacting current prices. Drillers stockpiled permits before the current administration, and believe it or not, the Biden admin is outpacing the Trump admin on issuing Federal drilling permits. Drillers can drill - they just aren't. Keystone got the Fox talking points, but that thing would still be under construction right now - not helping your $500/mo.
The issue as it see it is the producers are sitting on the permits happy to recover lost profits before making any further capital investments. I get it. They got hammered with the demand bottom fell - mothballed a bunch of stuff to ride it out - and now are slow to catch back up to demand while building back up cash reserves. That kills us at the pump, but I get why they are doing it for now. Eventually, we will get equilibrium after the unprecedented pandemic disruption. But if there's any beef for Biden, I'd say it needs to be focused on him not breaking away from progressives during unprecedented times. If he would come out and say "Look, I'm all for climate change reforms, but the global economy just got its **** kicked and markets are confused and reacting slowly. I can't rock the boat right now and families are pinched - expect no policy changes from this admin until we recover fully". How much would that help? I don't know, but it would provide a little more certainty and needs to happen.
But this whole "Biden made the gas go up! Trump made us independent!" is silly.
Just look at the trends over time. Pretty steady since '06, then COVID.
EIA expects U.S. petroleum trade to shift toward net imports during 2022 - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Most people sell things that they bought years ago and sale at a loss. That should not be reported. The fear of it is going keep people from doing simple things to afford the higher cost of living.
Average US cost per gallon is $3.53 right now.
The average cost per gallon in '08 was $3.25. Adjusted for inflation, that would be $4.24 in today's money.
It is high right now. It is also still 19.83% lower than the effective cost we paid in W's last year in office.
I am not blaming W and I am not defending Biden. These are just numbers that show where we were compared to where we are. If its bad now, it was much worse 14 years ago.
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