OT: latest developments in Ukraine/markets

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GloryDawg

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Mar 3, 2005
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Putin is fighting out of his weight class and is winning. Texas has a bigger economy than Russia. He has done nothing to build up their economy. They are reliant on fossil fuel sell. The United States could put them out of business and stop this arsine behavior by Putin. He know Biden is weak. The sharks see blood in the water.

Truth of the matter it is over. He got what he wanted.
 
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PBDog

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Oct 1, 2021
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First, to be fair, the unpredictability of the Biden admin on oil and gas is slowing down domestic production rebound. Uncertainty is bad for any market. No argument.

That said, there's not a ton policy wise out there that has impacted or is impacting current prices. Drillers stockpiled permits before the current administration, and believe it or not, the Biden admin is outpacing the Trump admin on issuing Federal drilling permits. Drillers can drill - they just aren't. Keystone got the Fox talking points, but that thing would still be under construction right now - not helping your $500/mo.

The issue as it see it is the producers are sitting on the permits happy to recover lost profits before making any further capital investments. I get it. They got hammered with the demand bottom fell - mothballed a bunch of stuff to ride it out - and now are slow to catch back up to demand while building back up cash reserves. That kills us at the pump, but I get why they are doing it for now. Eventually, we will get equilibrium after the unprecedented pandemic disruption. But if there's any beef for Biden, I'd say it needs to be focused on him not breaking away from progressives during unprecedented times. If he would come out and say "Look, I'm all for climate change reforms, but the global economy just got its **** kicked and markets are confused and reacting slowly. I can't rock the boat right now and families are pinched - expect no policy changes from this admin until we recover fully". How much would that help? I don't know, but it would provide a little more certainty and needs to happen.

But this whole "Biden made the gas go up! Trump made us independent!" is silly.

Just look at the trends over time. Pretty steady since '06, then COVID.



EIA expects U.S. petroleum trade to shift toward net imports during 2022 - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)


so if there is not threat from the US producers to increase production, you think opec+ will because biden asked them nicely?

you prefer this strategy to energy independence: stop collecting gas taxes, releasing SPR barrels, and adding more charging stations?
 

RotorHead

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Mar 26, 2019
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Here’s a good analysis on the situation I read predicting Russia “settles” for annexing the eastern breakaway provinces, and this is starting to look like a strategic “loss” for Russia:

https://twitter.com/copernicus2013/status/1495936129358520321?s=21

If you want a more historical analysis, check out this spot:

Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

That's where I do most of my reading concerning foreign actors and conflict on the international stage.
 
Aug 22, 2012
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All I know is the price at the pump is not a conspiracy. It’s costing me $500/mo right now when I’m not on the road. Twice the cost of at any point in the administration of the last guy. And by all accounts, it’s about to go far higher. The alleged party of the poor sure does seem to be in the business of bankrupting the poor — and then taxing them on it(new $600 forced threshold for all banks including PayPal/cashapp/etc that’s gonna absolutely devastate low income folks)

Facts are racist. The science is settled. Don't at me.***
 

engie

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May 29, 2011
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Average US cost per gallon is $3.53 right now.
The average cost per gallon in '08 was $3.25. Adjusted for inflation, that would be $4.24 in today's money.

It is high right now. It is also still 19.83% lower than the effective cost we paid in W's last year in office.

I am not blaming W and I am not defending Biden. These are just numbers that show where we were compared to where we are. If its bad now, it was much worse 14 years ago.

No one is gonna defend Bush’s fossil fuel policies. The way I see it, there’s been exactly one president in my lifetime that was actually on “my” side on this topic. Dems regulate into high prices and republicans speculate it right into their own wallets.
 

ckDOG

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Dec 11, 2007
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Do what now?

so if there is not threat from the US producers to increase production, you think opec+ will because biden asked them nicely?

you prefer this strategy to energy independence: stop collecting gas taxes, releasing SPR barrels, and adding more charging stations?

Not sure what your statement or question actually is. All I'm saying is that O&G markets are slow to react. They'll build their cash reserves up before getting comfortable with increased CAPEX that might bump up our supply. It's not a lever that the president pull and demand production - not in our country at least. You can ask OPEC, but why would they increase production? They just went through the same decreased demand cycle. SPR might help in the very short term, but is simply a political "look how I care!" move. Taxes? Damned if you do damned if you don't. Charging stations? Long term competition. Not short.
 

dorndawg

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Sep 10, 2012
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Average US cost per gallon is $3.53 right now.
The average cost per gallon in '08 was $3.25. Adjusted for inflation, that would be $4.24 in today's money.

It is high right now. It is also still 19.83% lower than the effective cost we paid in W's last year in office.

I am not blaming W and I am not defending Biden. These are just numbers that show where we were compared to where we are. If its bad now, it was much worse 14 years ago.


Oh.
 

dorndawg

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Sep 10, 2012
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Most people sell things that they bought years ago and sale at a loss. That should not be reported. The fear of it is going keep people from doing simple things to afford the higher cost of living.

You're doing it all wrong, big dawg.
 

dorndawg

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Sep 10, 2012
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Hell, I'm so old, I remember when this happened:

The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington.
Throughout the campaign, Trump has been dismissive of calls for supporting the Ukraine government as it fights an ongoing Russian-led intervention. Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, worked as a lobbyist for the Russian-backed former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych for more than a decade.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...adb3b0-4cf3-11e6-a7d8-13d06b37f256_story.html
 

thatsbaseball

Well-known member
May 29, 2007
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So saying Biden is weak automatically makes you a Trump supporter ? Horshack, I've read enough of your posts to know you're sharper than this.
 
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mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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Imagine thinking W represents the right side of the aisle. What's around the bend is going to make him look like a kitty-cat.

I dont imagine W currently represents all of the right side of the aisle. He certainly did for some years though.
At this point, even his war mongering administration would be pretty tame compared to some who want to lead the right.
 

ckDOG

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Dec 11, 2007
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Yep. MTG, Boebs, and Cawthorne are the future.

Imagine thinking W represents the right side of the aisle. What's around the bend is going to make him look like a kitty-cat.

Bold move. Let's see how that all works out for the GOP. Only 3 options really: 1) GOP keeps the name and becomes the no-platform grievance party (i.e. Trumpism) that picks and chooses when it embraces conservatism but is mostly a bunch of rabble rabble nonsense, 2) the squeaky wheels are finally pushed off to the side and GOP keeps on doing what they've been doing (i.e. Mitch wins) or 3) party splits, then the fun really starts.
 
Aug 22, 2012
2,761
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Average US cost per gallon is $3.53 right now.
The average cost per gallon in '08 was $3.25. Adjusted for inflation, that would be $4.24 in today's money.

It is high right now. It is also still 19.83% lower than the effective cost we paid in W's last year in office.

I am not blaming W and I am not defending Biden. These are just numbers that show where we were compared to where we are. If its bad now, it was much worse 14 years ago.

What was the cost per gallon the day before Biden was inaugurated? Asking for a friend.
 

mstateglfr

Well-known member
Feb 24, 2008
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You need to make some conservative friends. You don't have any and it shows in this post.

Funny- on another message board, I am viewed as a right wing nutjob. Its all just a matter of perspective. Its almost as if I am quite middle ground, and my voting record supports that.
But who I am friends with or how I vote is neither here nor there.


My initial point was that high gas prices can happen regardless of who is in office. Same with economic growth. Same with market growth. And the reverse can also be true. There are a lot of outside factors involved that influence things that presidents dont have control over, even if they are blamed for the result.
I posted that to hopefully help provide perspective and reminder. It was probably appreciated by a couple and lost on many others.
 

IBleedMaroonDawg

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Nov 12, 2007
23,184
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All I know is the price at the pump is not a conspiracy. It’s costing me $500/mo right now when I’m not on the road. Twice the cost of at any point in the administration of the last guy. And by all accounts, it’s about to go far higher. The alleged party of the poor sure does seem to be in the business of bankrupting the poor — and then taxing them on it(new $600 forced threshold for all banks including PayPal/cashapp/etc that’s gonna absolutely devastate low income folks)

I still think the top Dems have lots of money tied up in foreign oil. Dem in office? $3-$4 a gallon gas and we import tons of oil. If you don't think that Dems have oil money you're a fool

Before you start Trumping me, I don't want Trump either but we have to find a better solution than a wimp like Biden or a crazy like Trump for a president.
 
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