OT: Lumber... It's been a while

[dorndawg]

It won't happen this year, it's never when people suspect it will be. But it's coming.

Combination of baby boomers bidding us all farewell in this life, plus supply chain stabilizing, plus people not freaking out as much, will get things back where they should be. The last part is the big thing. People are all out buying up houses simply because reasons, and it 17s up the demand.

These dumbass millenials have never seen a housing crisis or even a real downturn, so of course they all think the market will continue to go up forever.

The upper cohort of Millennials are 41 today, meaning they were 28 during the Great Financial Crisis. By all means, please proceed.

 

[ronpolk]

The upper cohort of Millennials are 41 today, meaning they were 28 during the Great Financial Crisis. By all means, please proceed.

Yep.. stupid comment by Goat. Lots of millennials were graduating college during the financial crisis (I was). The problem everyone has with millennials is for some reason they have never aged to a lot of the population. Everyone sees them as 20 year old college kids.

 

[Go Budaw]

No, I can't predict where home prices are going. For all I know, this ratio is going to 10. Or 3. My only point is that even compared to the housing bubble, homes are expensive right now. Prices could crash tomorrow or go up for another 10 years. Nothing would surprise me.

How does the ratio look when breaking it out into the individual numbers? For example, is it high because home prices are higher but median income is stagnant, is median income increasing but home prices are increasing exponentially more, etc.?

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

You must think Millennials are 21 year olds.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Yep.. stupid comment by Goat. Lots of millennials were graduating college during the financial crisis (I was). The problem everyone has with millennials is for some reason they have never aged to a lot of the population. Everyone sees them as 20 year old college kids.

Nope.

Most millennials (I am one of the older ones) did not experience the housing crisis. What they DID experience was a horrific job market. Most weren't buying a house at the time. Most didn't have enough money in their retirement accounts to see the swing, and how dramatic it could be.

Try again. You guys are just trying to find details to discredit me. Go right ahead, I deal with the big picture. If you want to quibble about if a 40 year old thinks like a millennial or not, have at it. Bottom line is, most millennials are buying houses they cannot afford.

 

[Smoked Toag]

How does the ratio look when breaking it out into the individual numbers? For example, is it high because home prices are higher but median income is stagnant, is median income increasing but home prices are increasing exponentially more, etc.?

The former. However, starting salaries probably are higher, but overall, they are stagnant.

 

[PartTimeGenius]

Dorn, you've inspired me. I think I'll go build a nice new sawmill just off the bypass NW of Starkville. 82 and 25 traffic allowing more access.

Step 1 to being a Billionaire. Check

 

[Seinfeld]

Let me just say that the pool guys are sure quoting their business like no one really “needs” a pool either

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Fiat money is a misleading denominator.

How does the ratio look when breaking it out into the individual numbers? For example, is it high because home prices are higher but median income is stagnant, is median income increasing but home prices are increasing exponentially more, etc.?

year	median household income	5-year change
2006	$46,001	--
2011	$49,100	+6.74%
2016	$56,025	+14.10%
2021	$67,463	+20.42%

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</tbody>

year	median home price	5-year change
2006	$216,734.82	--
2011	$174,041.42	-19.70%
2016	$225,654.10	+29.66%
2021	$342,844.68	+51.93%

<tbody>
</tbody>

The problem with looking at them individually is fiat money is 17ed. And the problem with using inflation adjusted numbers is the official inflation numbers are 17ed. That's why I like to look at the relationship between home prices and income. In other words, "How many years of work does a house cost?"

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

And the official number is bogus.

Inflation just hit a 39 year high.

pic.twitter.com/YNjcSrMyKg— Phil Geiger (@phil_geiger) December 10, 2021

 

[dorndawg]

Dorn, you've inspired me. I think I'll go build a nice new sawmill just off the bypass NW of Starkville. 82 and 25 traffic allowing more access.

Step 1 to being a Billionaire. Check

Might butt heads a little with Southeastern in Ackerman and Shuqualak, amongst others - but I say go for it.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

How are they buying houses they cannot afford? Do you expect a bunch of layoffs or pay cuts in the future? Are they giving out ninja loans again?

I always figured you were some 70 year old crotchety bastard and had gone through the 70's stagflation, the savings and loan crisis of the 80's, the dot-com bust of the 90's and the financial crisis. According to you, you haven't experienced **** if you're a millennial...

 

[HWY51dog]

Their will be a correction, but who knows when it will be. The difference is the loan requirements that sped up the bust in 2008 are not happening, at least from what I have dealt with. First time home buyers are being pushed out of the market because of hedge funds. If you could fix that it would help calm the market some. Basically anything under 300,000 here gets snapped up.

I have 3 acres that I will be building on this year. I’m trying to time it right…but not sure if that will be possible.

 

[ronpolk]

How are they buying houses they cannot afford? Do you expect a bunch of layoffs or pay cuts in the future? Are they giving out ninja loans again?

I always figured you were some 70 year old crotchety bastard and had gone through the 70's stagflation, the savings and loan crisis of the 80's, the dot-com bust of the 90's and the financial crisis. According to you, you haven't experienced **** if you're a millennial...

He’s just a know it all loud mouth that in reality does not know half of what he likes to act like he does.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

^Accurate

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

median home price in bitcoin

View attachment 23268

 

[Smoked Toag]

He’s just a know it all loud mouth that in reality does not know half of what he likes to act like he does.

You've got the "know it all" part right.

 

[paindonthurt]

I’ve owned 2300 sqft, 3000 sqft, 900 sqft and now 2600 sqft.

I’ve spent 95% of my time in abt 600 sqft.