OT: Macroeconomic Outlook

Leeshouldveflanked

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Nov 12, 2016
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The company I work for manufacturers products for Trucking, Construction, Mining and even some Aerospace and Defense. We had a 7percent price increase July 2021, an 8 percent Jan 1 2022 and we will have a 10 percent price increase April 1 2022. But our NOP is trending down faster than we can raise prices due to raw materials and freight. We had one 3% pay raise since 2019. I work on commission and right now backorders are costing me about $30K in commissions. But our Board of Directors and Leadership team are getting paid coming Hell or High Water so prices will continue to go up while our wages will be stagnant. I’m sure this will be happening at most large companies.
 
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PooPopsBaldHead

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Dec 15, 2017
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We had one 3% pay raise since 2019. I work on commission and right now backorders are costing me about $30K in commissions. But our Board of Directors and Leadership team are getting paid coming Hell or High Water so prices will continue to go up while our wages will be stagnant. I’m sure this will be happening at most large companies.

The exact opposite is what's going on in most places. Depending on how your commission is set (if it's on gross sales or based on margin) you may be okay. But for the rest of the company to only have a single 3% raise since 2019 is way off mark. Average nationally was 4% in 2021 and 5% this year. The most wage growth since the 90's is taking place right now. And it's still not enough to keep people from quitting to take higher paying jobs.

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The only way this strategy of no raises makes sense is if you're in a highly captured labor market where there are no other employment options or there is one hell of a benefits/pension package people won't leave. If not, I would expect workers to fly the coop at some point soon. The Great Resignation is legit.
 
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Cooterpoot

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Aug 29, 2012
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The exact opposite is what's going on in most places. Depending on how your commission is set (if it's on gross sales or based on margin) you may be okay. But for the rest of the company to only have a single 3% raise since 2019 is way off mark. Average nationally was 4% in 2021 and 5% this year. The most wage growth since the 90's is taking place right now. And it's still not enough to keep people from quitting to take higher paying jobs.

View attachment 24011

The only way this strategy of no raises makes sense is if you're in a highly captured labor market where there are no other employment options or there is one hell of a benefits/pension package people won't leave. If not, I would expect workers to fly the coop at some point soon. The Great Resignation is legit.

Wage growth is coming from new hires though. Those already working aren't getting those raises. Companies just aren't giving it to their current employees much, especially in mid-management. It's the way of big business these days. I ripped our management a couple weeks ago about it when they asked my opinion. We increased starting pay to $15/hr but huge chunk of the rest of the company got nothing or 2% max. Independent contractors are seeing big increases in a lot things too.
 
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archdog

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Aug 22, 2012
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Programs like PPP are always going to give money to businesses or individuals that don’t need it. It’s just the nature of “crafty” writing in congressional bills. You’re going to help a lot of people but at the same time you have others taking advantage of the system.

Yeah, the PPP money is a tough one. It gave tons of businesses the help they needed to keep people on the payroll. The application process was simple to follow, easy to calculate the loan amounts, and generally had a pretty good system of checks and balances at the local bank to ensure you meet the criteria for the loan and loan forgiveness. With the unknown of the markets and the available work, it was a no brainer to apply for any money you qualify for. My office in particular had a ton of projects stop dead in their tracks. 6 months worth of revenue , poof, gone over the course of the first month.

In the construction industry, the biggest culprit is the ESSER funding and now the local jurisdictions getting AARPA? money. Those two programs will drive the price of construction to around 200% pre-covid cost per square foot prices. The issue is the money, but more importantly is the requirement to spend that money in a relative short period of time. Forcing the entire country to upgrade their mechanical system, interior finishes, windows, etc to get more air exchanges in the classrooms. While I get the overall idea, the mechanical suppliers and mechanical contractors can only do so much work and produce so many mechanical units. Pricing is skyrocketing at the moment, and it will keep going up until all the money is spent. Davis Bacon Wage Rates will become the norm, so basically every tradesman in the country is earning Union salaries and it will not go back. Good for them, but the days of a small office building costing a high 300/sf is gone and more likely 428/sf at a minimum.
 

PooPopsBaldHead

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Dec 15, 2017
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True, but job switchers always drive wage increases, it's just on steroids now. And that's why... Hold onto your butthole... 48 million people voluntarily quit last year to take new jobs. Thus, the great resignation.

There are some smart companies who are paying up to retain talent and dubmasses who don't. The amount of time/productivity it costs to replace a decent employee, plus paying the new hire more... Stupidity squared. This chart tells you where your company falls on the dubmass line for employee retention. (It's raises for existing employees.)

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HR practices are stuck in the 90's with stuff like pay bands and geographic cost of living data. You pay what the employee is worth or you risk losing them. It doesn't matter if they are in Noxapater or San Francisco, pay based on the overall contribution to the team and value they create for the business.
 
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