OT: Markets........

[PooPopsBaldHead]

That's exactly what I do. When i sense trouble, I jump to cash, them move back when my fears subside. No judgement on what anyone does. The few folks I know who use paid advisors have returns less than mine over the years.

Are you saying you move to cash when you sense fear and then buy back in when your fears subside?

 

[revereno]

I think the opposite. The market has assumed the Fed will cut rates soon and often. The Fed keeps saying they won't. Today's numbers made the latter more likely, thus the downgrade of the market and rising bond rates.

Correct. I meant to type underestimate not overestimate.

 

[Boom Boom]

This is most likely the answer. Uncertainty because inflation surprised the market. 2022 CPI 6.5%, /2023 CPI 3.4% January /2024 CPI 0.3%

Seems like a ripe buying opportunity. A "surprise" number that is really only saying a 2.5% inflation rate, based on one month's against-the-trend reading (and just barely) in a month that is hard to measure (seasonal effects). Seems like an overreaction by the market.

 

[PBDog]

Seems like a ripe buying opportunity. A "surprise" number that is really only saying a 2.5% inflation rate, based on one month's against-the-trend reading (and just barely) in a month that is hard to measure (seasonal effects). Seems like an overreaction by the market.

it’s typical manipulation - tell your clients to set their sell limits then force liquidations

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Seems like a ripe buying opportunity. A "surprise" number that is really only saying a 2.5% inflation rate, based on one month's against-the-trend reading (and just barely) in a month that is hard to measure (seasonal effects). Seems like an overreaction by the market.

Who knows what the market baked in and why. The market itself is often not rational. That's why I think that fundamental investing rules the day if you are going to buy individual stocks. You can hedge against market perturbations by buying stocks that pay dividends, then you get paid consistently even if the market doesn't favor that company, or industry.

 

[pseudonym]

How can you compare bitcoin to the S&P 500, gold, and US Treasuries on an extended time horizon? Bitcoin has been around about 10 years. Gold has been a unit of exchange for all of recorded history. Stocks and government debt have been traded for hundreds of years.

You can compare bitcoin to these assets on ROI, CAGR, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and many other metrics.

For example, CAGR of bitcoin, gold, and S&P 500 compared:


We can only compare them to bitcoin over the past 15 years because that is how long bitcoin has existed. But every year that passes, we get one more year to compare them.

Here is a helpful website with a lot of charts comparing the assets on the above metrics:

The Case for Bitcoin

Keep track of the macro environment and where Bitcoin sits within it. CaseBitcoin provides key stats, a growing library of the best Bitcoin investment content that makes the case for Bitcoin, and day-to-day coverage of why more and more people are seeking refuge in Bitcoin.

casebitcoin.com

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Are you saying you move to cash when you sense fear and then buy back in when your fears subside?

yes sir! I moved to cash on 30 or 31 Jan and got back in equities yesterday to catch today's gains. That was my retirement money (401K). In my IRA and brokerages accounts, I hold individual stocks, I don't try to time the market as much as just try to catch hot stocks in those. I recently bought NVDA and ETHE based on SPS recommendations.

 

[garddog]

Fidelity and others have some newer ETF's that are mirrors of older funds. They are run by the same people. Just later start date with a lower buy in. I don't sell and rebuy, I just let that ride and try to buy 25 shares average a month.

Most of these plans are 15.00 to 30.00. If they follow their older siblings they should hit 100+ in 10 years.

Guess we should all be in Coca Cola (KO) They rose yesterday while everything was tanking.