OT: SPS Economists and Psychologists chime in

[horshack.sixpack]

Fact: There are 6 million more people employed in the US than there were pre-pandemic.

Observation: It doesn't "feel" that way. i.e. the service industry still seems very hit or miss, etc.

Why is there such a gap between the reality and the way it feels?

Is it simply that we are 4 years further down the road of population growth and that 6MM doesn't put a dent in the need?

Were we that underemployed pre-pandemic so we don't notice?

Are there simply way more available jobs for people who would have previously been in the service industry?

 

[Anon1704414204]

Fact: There are 6 million more people employed in the US than there were pre-pandemic.

Observation: It doesn't "feel" that way. i.e. the service industry still seems very hit or miss, etc.

Why is there such a gap between the reality and the way it feels?

Is it simply that we are 4 years further down the road of population growth and that 6MM doesn't put a dent in the need?

Were we that underemployed pre-pandemic so we don't notice?

Are there simply way more available jobs for people who would have previously been in the service industry?

Legit questions from you whom I typically disagree with .

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Legit questions from you whom I typically disagree with .

I suspect we would rarely disagree on questions. Answers however...

 

[POTUS]

How do we know there actually are 6M more jobs?

 

[pseudonym]

Since 2021, I have observed plenty of work available. In my area, the service industry is posting $15-20/hour entry-level openings on billboards. There isn't an effective minimum wage because there is so much demand for workers.

So, from my perspective, the pain hasn't been unemployment. It's been people with one or more jobs that can't afford the rising cost of living.

 

[retire the banner]

Since 2021, I have observed plenty of work available. In my area, the service industry is posting $15-20/hour entry-level openings on billboards. There isn't an effective minimum wage because there is so much demand for workers.

So, from my perspective, the pain hasn't been unemployment. It's been people with one or more jobs that can't afford the rising cost of living.

Bingo. Inflation is the cause of all of this

 

[patdog]

And yet the unemployment rate is higher than it’s been since 2017 (excluding the pandemic spike).

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

 

[GloryDawg]

Do you not buy gas, have electricity in your house or go to the groceries store?

 

[WilCoDawg]

How do we know there actually are 6M more jobs?

Google doesn’t seem to want to even show me this stat. Weird.

 

[Anon1704414204]

How do we know there actually are 6M more jobs?

And how many are govt jobs and / or low paying? And thanks horseshak for not going The " 14MM Jobs Created" Since COVID " Route.

 

[MSUGUY]

Fact: There are 6 million more people employed in the US than there were pre-pandemic.

Observation: It doesn't "feel" that way. i.e. the service industry still seems very hit or miss, etc.

Why is there such a gap between the reality and the way it feels?

Is it simply that we are 4 years further down the road of population growth and that 6MM doesn't put a dent in the need?

Were we that underemployed pre-pandemic so we don't notice?

Are there simply way more available jobs for people who would have previously been in the service industry?

I guess I question what is being measured. Is it really 6 M more people working and therefore 6M more jobs? Are more people working 2/3 jobs now and actually not 6M more people working? The nurses I work with all supplement with part time work to keep up with inflation.
How does illegal immigration affect, are there more illegal Immigrants doing jobs that are now available because of the supply of labor and cash ?
Our politicians will spin it to their advantage left or right, Truth is like the wind.

 

[WilCoDawg]

I guess I question what is being measured. Is it really 6 M more people working and therefore 6M more jobs? Are more people working 2/3 jobs now and actually not 6M more people working? The nurses I work with all supplement with part time work to keep up with inflation.
How does illegal immigration affect, are there more illegal Immigrants doing jobs that are now available because of the supply of labor and cash ?
Our politicians will spin it to their advantage left or right, Truth is like the wind.

From what I’ve read, the stats don’t include pop growth and skew reality. IE if a guy loses his FT job and takes 2 PT jobs, 1 job was created. From what I’ve seen, jobs are around the same level they were pre-pandemic; not higher which is what “6 million more jobs” makes it sound like.
Regardless, unemployment is up.

 

[Perd Hapley]

How do we know there actually are 6M more jobs?

Because employers have to provide W2 / 1098 data to the state and federal government on a regular basis, which spells out how many direct employees they have?

 

[GloryDawg]

And yet the unemployment rate is higher than it’s been since 2017 (excluding the pandemic spike).

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

They say we are drilling more oil than ever before in our country's history, but the government is having to take millions of barrels from our strategic oil reserve. What the government say never is the reality. They live in a bubble thinking we are all stupid.

 

[ckDOG]

I guess I question what is being measured. Is it really 6 M more people working and therefore 6M more jobs? Are more people working 2/3 jobs now and actually not 6M more people working? The nurses I work with all supplement with part time work to keep up with inflation.
How does illegal immigration affect, are there more illegal Immigrants doing jobs that are now available because of the supply of labor and cash ?
Our politicians will spin it to their advantage left or right, Truth is like the wind.

Not an answer to the 6M but the multiple jobs aspect doesn't appear to be a significant factor. At least not historically. Rate has caught up to pre Covid but is still low compared to last couple of decades.

Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed

Graph and download economic data for Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (LNS12026620) from Jan 1994 to Aug 2024 about multiple jobholders, 16 years +, percent, household survey, employment, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

 

[POTUS]

Because employers have to provide W2 / 1098 data to the state and federal government on a regular basis, which spells out how many direct employees they have?

Was a sincere question. I do know they give a jobs report that is consistently adjusted downward over and over again the last couple years. I certainly wouldn’t assume something to be fact because a government agency said it was true.

 

[FormerBully]

Fact: There are 6 million more people employed in the US than there were pre-pandemic.

Observation: It doesn't "feel" that way. i.e. the service industry still seems very hit or miss, etc.

Why is there such a gap between the reality and the way it feels?

Is it simply that we are 4 years further down the road of population growth and that 6MM doesn't put a dent in the need?

Were we that underemployed pre-pandemic so we don't notice?

Are there simply way more available jobs for people who would have previously been in the service industry?

Does this number account for people losing jobs and being replaced? The company I work for is an industrial service company. We are having an issue finding skilled workers and keeping them. This has led to us filling multiple positions and then refilling them when people leave or are let go.

 

[ckDOG]

They say we are drilling more oil than ever before in our country's history, but the government is having to take millions of barrels from our strategic oil reserve. What the government say never is the reality. They live in a bubble thinking we are all stupid.

Why can't those two things happen simultaneously? People screamed high gas prices and demanded the president do something. He put more oil in the market.

But the reserve is largely politicized to make emotional people happier. The highest it has ever been was 750 million barrels or so. It's now trickling back up to 400 million. We produce near 5 billion barrels a year. Probably not the riskiest position to have been all things said.

U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR (Thousand Barrels)

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)

 

[T-TownDawgg]

And yet the unemployment rate is higher than it’s been since 2017 (excluding the pandemic spike).

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

Unemployment is a ridiculously useless depression-era metric that no longer tells the whole story, and is used as a political talking point.

The fact is, millions of healthy working age adults opt out and are not even pursuing a job anymore. There are millions more jobs in this country than there are people willing to fill them.

 

[mcdawg22]

I’m not going to weigh into the economics. I’ll leave that to you experts, but I am curious how many of these service businesses use “efficiency” software. I worked at two different FIs that had a program called Teller Utilization. It tracked volume vs how many tellers did transactions. Essentially if you did a transaction in a 15 minute window it counted you as a FTE. This was something that was measured on my scorecard. Upper management told us to maximize our numbers to have tellers who were on tye clock not do transactions during these 15 minute windows. So I may have 4 tellers on the clock, but only 2 were allowed to do transactions while the others did busy work. We would have lines of people with available tellers to help, but I was told I could not let them do transactions. So essentially we are still paying the same amount of money but providing worse service. It was the most asinine thing I have ever seen.

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

How do we know there actually are 6M more jobs?

Yea, that 6,000,000 number always seemed skeptical to me.

 

[johnson86-1]

Fact: There are 6 million more people employed in the US than there were pre-pandemic.

Observation: It doesn't "feel" that way. i.e. the service industry still seems very hit or miss, etc.

Why is there such a gap between the reality and the way it feels?

Is it simply that we are 4 years further down the road of population growth and that 6MM doesn't put a dent in the need?

Were we that underemployed pre-pandemic so we don't notice?

Are there simply way more available jobs for people who would have previously been in the service industry?

Does that 6M people number come from the BLS's household survey? Or for payroll data?

I think we've grown by more than 7M people over that time frame, but not sure what the working age population has done in that time frame.

But I am guessing a big part of it is we are using a lot more service workers? How many more people now have somebody else shop for their groceries, have their groceries delivered, and/or restaurant food delivered?

Some of that is offset by automation in places like warehouses, but I'm guessing maybe also people "temporarily" left the service industries during Covid and realized they didn't want to go back? Or just found better options?

 

[mcdawg22]

They say we are drilling more oil than ever before in our country's history, but the government is having to take millions of barrels from our strategic oil reserve. What the government say never is the reality. They live in a bubble thinking we are all stupid.

The one phrase that bugs me is “Energy Independent”. We will never be Energy Independent unless you nationalize oil production which I am against and is socialism. If Exxon Mobile pays the money to pull the oil out of the ground and Lichtenstein wants to pay $100 more a barrel for it. It’s EM’s right to sell it to them.

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

So essentially we are still paying the same amount of money but providing worse service. It was the most asinine thing I have ever seen.

I take it you have never worked for or do a lot of work with the federal goverment.

 

[ckDOG]

Unemployment is a ridiculously useless depression-era metric that no longer tells the whole story, and is used as a political talking point.

The fact is, millions of healthy working age adults opt out and are not even pursuing a job anymore. There are millions more jobs in this country than there are people willing to fill them.

Your statements are correct bc we are a large country but some context would useful. Here is participation rate for healthy working age adults:

Labor Force Participation Rate - 25-54 Yrs.

Graph and download economic data for Labor Force Participation Rate - 25-54 Yrs. (LNS11300060) from Jan 1948 to Aug 2024 about 25 to 54 years, participation, civilian, labor force, labor, household survey, rate, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Here are the overall rate. It has been decreasing. Most of that would have to be an aging population but surely some of that is folks take advantage of the system or being poorly incentivized to stay home.

Labor Force Participation Rate

View data of the percentage of the total U.S. population that is neither employed nor actively seeking work.

fred.stlouisfed.org

 

[johnson86-1]

Why can't those two things happen simultaneously? People screamed high gas prices and demanded the president do something. He put more oil in the market.

But the reserve is largely politicized to make emotional people happier. The highest it has ever been was 750 million barrels or so. It's now trickling back up to 400 million. We produce near 5 billion barrels a year. Probably not the riskiest position to have been all things said.

U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR (Thousand Barrels)

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)

People wanting something to be done does not mean they want the president to do something stupid.

The biggest issue is those domes are natural structures and they aren't made to operate as a tank. Taking oil out and putting it back in repeatedly will destroy it.

But it also makes price fluctuations a little worse over time because it makes it a little risker for producers to invest in marginal wells if right when they are getting to be profitable, the government is going to release reserves to depress prices.

And let's not forget that when we had the opportunity to fill it for dirt cheap, which would have had the added benefit of keeping production on line to mitigate a future price spike, *** holes on the left blocked it because they see affordable energy as a bad thing if it comes from fossil fuels.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

How do we know there actually are 6M more jobs?

BLS data

 

[Dawgg]

They say we are drilling more oil than ever before in our country's history, but the government is having to take millions of barrels from our strategic oil reserve. What the government say never is the reality. They live in a bubble thinking we are all stupid.

I mean... I haven't read the stat you are quoting so I don't know how it was worded, but more drilling doesn't necessarily equate to more production. We could be drilling at an all time high and the areas we've drilled just aren't hitting like they were expected to. I'm not saying to trust the government, but I'm just saying those two numbers aren't the same.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

From what I’ve read, the stats don’t include pop growth and skew reality. IE if a guy loses his FT job and takes 2 PT jobs, 1 job was created. From what I’ve seen, jobs are around the same level they were pre-pandemic; not higher which is what “6 million more jobs” makes it sound like.
Regardless, unemployment is up.

My position. I don't pick apart the methodology. The BLS measured jobs the same exact way before COVID that they do today. So there is value/interest in comparison between the two. Given nearly any measurement in the world, someone could take exception to methodology, however, even if the methodology is "flawed", the changes between measurement cycles tell us something.

My truck thermostat could be off by several degrees, but it telling me that my truck is running hotter than it was yesterday can convey something meaningful. Same principle here.

 

[Dawgg]

I’m not going to weigh into the economics. I’ll leave that to you experts, but I am curious how many of these service businesses use “efficiency” software. I worked at two different FIs that had a program called Teller Utilization. It tracked volume vs how many tellers did transactions. Essentially if you did a transaction in a 15 minute window it counted you as a FTE. This was something that was measured on my scorecard. Upper management told us to maximize our numbers to have tellers who were on tye clock not do transactions during these 15 minute windows. So I may have 4 tellers on the clock, but only 2 were allowed to do transactions while the others did busy work. We would have lines of people with available tellers to help, but I was told I could not let them do transactions. So essentially we are still paying the same amount of money but providing worse service. It was the most asinine thing I have ever seen.

That makes me think of the fast food drive-thru windows where they ask you to pull up and they'll bring the food out even though there's nobody behind you because the way they measure order efficiency is how long the customer is sitting at the window.

 

[57stratdawg]

I’m kind of over people’s ‘feelings’ on the economy. It’s doing fine, and if you don’t think it’s doing fine we’ve got 500 BPS in the Fed Funds rate to play with.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

They say we are drilling more oil than ever before in our country's history, but the government is having to take millions of barrels from our strategic oil reserve. What the government say never is the reality. They live in a bubble thinking we are all stupid.

We've actually been replenishing the oil reserves (SPR) that we sold and done so at substantially lower prices than we originally sold it at. So far, 38 million barrels put back into the reserve at an average price of $77/barrel compared to the $95/barrel we sold it at. Turned out to be a good thing. I suppose that if we had experienced an event during the drawdown that required the reserves it would have been a bad thing...

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Does this number account for people losing jobs and being replaced? The company I work for is an industrial service company. We are having an issue finding skilled workers and keeping them. This has led to us filling multiple positions and then refilling them when people leave or are let go.

Again, it a BLS number. Regardless of what it includes, it includes the same stuff in included during both measurement periods, so comparison is relevant.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Why can't those two things happen simultaneously? People screamed high gas prices and demanded the president do something. He put more oil in the market.

But the reserve is largely politicized to make emotional people happier. The highest it has ever been was 750 million barrels or so. It's now trickling back up to 400 million. We produce near 5 billion barrels a year. Probably not the riskiest position to have been all things said.

U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR (Thousand Barrels)

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels per Day)

And we've made $684MM, in buying back reserves at a lower cost that we sold it.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

I’m not going to weigh into the economics. I’ll leave that to you experts, but I am curious how many of these service businesses use “efficiency” software. I worked at two different FIs that had a program called Teller Utilization. It tracked volume vs how many tellers did transactions. Essentially if you did a transaction in a 15 minute window it counted you as a FTE. This was something that was measured on my scorecard. Upper management told us to maximize our numbers to have tellers who were on tye clock not do transactions during these 15 minute windows. So I may have 4 tellers on the clock, but only 2 were allowed to do transactions while the others did busy work. We would have lines of people with available tellers to help, but I was told I could not let them do transactions. So essentially we are still paying the same amount of money but providing worse service. It was the most asinine thing I have ever seen.

Interesting. Had no idea.

 

[GloryDawg]

I mean... I haven't read the stat you are quoting so I don't know how it was worded, but more drilling doesn't necessarily equate to more production. We could be drilling at an all time high and the areas we've drilled just aren't hitting like they were expected to. I'm not saying to trust the government, but I'm just saying those two numbers aren't the same.

I was going by what congressmen on MSNBC were saying. That's my point what they tell us doesn't match up with reality.

 

[ronpolk]

How do we know there actually are 6M more jobs?

And here is the answer to the question… no one trust data anymore unless it’s released by their political party of choice. This goes for people on both sides of the isle. If Trump wins the election in a few months the majority of democrats will suddenly not trust inflation reports or job numbers.

 

[patdog]

We've actually been replenishing the oil reserves (SPR) that we sold and done so at substantially lower prices than we originally sold it at. So far, 38 million barrels put back into the reserve at an average price of $77/barrel compared to the $95/barrel we sold it at. Turned out to be a good thing. I suppose that if we had experienced an event during the drawdown that required the reserves it would have been a bad thing...

Yes it would. Which is why we have the reserves to begin with. It’s nice we’re buying back cheaper. But it’s an unnecessary risk.

 

[HumpDawgy]

Whatever party is in power will always pad these numbers. My questions would be how many of those jobs are full time with benefits? Also, how many of those jobs are occupied by US citizens?

 

[ckDOG]

People wanting something to be done does not mean they want the president to do something stupid.

The biggest issue is those domes are natural structures and they aren't made to operate as a tank. Taking oil out and putting it back in repeatedly will destroy it.

But it also makes price fluctuations a little worse over time because it makes it a little risker for producers to invest in marginal wells if right when they are getting to be profitable, the government is going to release reserves to depress prices.

And let's not forget that when we had the opportunity to fill it for dirt cheap, which would have had the added benefit of keeping production on line to mitigate a future price spike, *** holes on the left blocked it because they see affordable energy as a bad thing if it comes from fossil fuels.

Yes. We should have topped her off when the gauge was at 87% full and prices tanked. Because why not? 92 million barrels at dirt cheap prices was a no brainer.

Again - politics. We are talking relatively small volumes based on capacities and when it comes to influencing real prices.

The salt dome integrity is the most important aspect by far. No need to ruin our storage systems to influence prices by a couple of dimes a gallon.