OT: This week could be huuuuge

PBDog

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Oct 1, 2021
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btc is recovering from a healthy correction and the halving is probably on 4/20. this could be setting up to be the week it hits 80K. surely the grayscale genesis turd is flushed.

btc and all proxies especially mstr and clsk could see their ath eclipsed by 20%.

thoughts? what is your market top prediction? my analysis says btc to 150k for this cycle
 

FreeDawg

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Oct 6, 2010
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I’ve had a very conservative target of $130k for a while now. More important than the overall target is when that happens. Crypto is different.

My thesis atm is: we are looking at a left translated cycle if you follow the 4-year or halving theory. layman’s terms: it’s happening faster than before.

Why that’s tricky is because you’ll start seeing the super cycle theory with crazy targets like $250k, $500k, or even $1M like Kathy Wood. Retail would be rushed in only to be exit liquidity for everyone that was aggressively stacking the last several years.

My crypto strategy is you want to gamble some lunch money: Go to Coinbase and/or Binance US and sort every listed project by MC and buy the smallest ones (it will take less liquidity to get them moving). After a 10x either go home or degen rotate with tight stops. My latest buy on CB is Velodrome (DeFi protocol on Optmism
L2). Purchase Feb 19th, up 128%, & she has another 10x in her easy by cycle end if not more. Pretty much anything you buy today will be up big by $100k BTC but the biggest % gainers will be those $40M MC that go over a billion.

For degen risk averse savages only: bridge to Base, get a TG base token scanner, get freaky.
 

pseudonym

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Oct 6, 2022
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I’ve had a very conservative target of $130k for a while now. More important than the overall target is when that happens. Crypto is different.

My thesis atm is: we are looking at a left translated cycle if you follow the 4-year or halving theory. layman’s terms: it’s happening faster than before.

Why that’s tricky is because you’ll start seeing the super cycle theory with crazy targets like $250k, $500k, or even $1M like Kathy Wood. Retail would be rushed in only to be exit liquidity for everyone that was aggressively stacking the last several years.

My crypto strategy is you want to gamble some lunch money: Go to Coinbase and/or Binance US and sort every listed project by MC and buy the smallest ones (it will take less liquidity to get them moving). After a 10x either go home or degen rotate with tight stops. My latest buy on CB is Velodrome (DeFi protocol on Optmism
L2). Purchase Feb 19th, up 128%, & she has another 10x in her easy by cycle end if not more. Pretty much anything you buy today will be up big by $100k BTC but the biggest % gainers will be those $40M MC that go over a billion.

For degen risk averse savages only: bridge to Base, get a TG base token scanner, get freaky.

The tried and true strategy is to ignore all this nonsense and stack sats.

Every crypto project is going to zero in bitcoin terms on a long enough time horizon. Serious people focus on bitcoin instead of playing fiat games with crypto.

Stay humble.

 
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PBDog

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Oct 1, 2021
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I’ve had a very conservative target of $130k for a while now. More important than the overall target is when that happens. Crypto is different.

My thesis atm is: we are looking at a left translated cycle if you follow the 4-year or halving theory. layman’s terms: it’s happening faster than before.

Why that’s tricky is because you’ll start seeing the super cycle theory with crazy targets like $250k, $500k, or even $1M like Kathy Wood. Retail would be rushed in only to be exit liquidity for everyone that was aggressively stacking the last several years.

My crypto strategy is you want to gamble some lunch money: Go to Coinbase and/or Binance US and sort every listed project by MC and buy the smallest ones (it will take less liquidity to get them moving). After a 10x either go home or degen rotate with tight stops. My latest buy on CB is Velodrome (DeFi protocol on Optmism
L2). Purchase Feb 19th, up 128%, & she has another 10x in her easy by cycle end if not more. Pretty much anything you buy today will be up big by $100k BTC but the biggest % gainers will be those $40M MC that go over a billion.

For degen risk averse savages only: bridge to Base, get a TG base token scanner, get freaky.
you gamblers can
The tried and true strategy is to ignore all this nonsense and stack sats.

Every crypto project is going to zero in bitcoin terms on a long enough time horizon. Serious people focus on bitcoin instead of playing fiat games with crypto.

Stay humble.


yea agree - my response to the guys doing this is the same response the mungers tell me about btc: it’s a gamble that you’re going to lose most of the time
 

FreeDawg

Active member
Oct 6, 2010
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The tried and true strategy is to ignore all this nonsense and stack sats.

Every crypto project is going to zero in bitcoin terms on a long enough time horizon. Serious people focus on bitcoin instead of playing fiat games with crypto.

Stay humble.



if you’re telling people to invest in BTC and you don’t want them to know about the halving schedule you’re just not doing it right. To each his own. Nothing wrong with a DCA approach but this market isn’t your 401k.
 

vhdawg

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2004
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btc is recovering from a healthy correction and the halving is probably on 4/20. this could be setting up to be the week it hits 80K. surely the grayscale genesis turd is flushed.

btc and all proxies especially mstr and clsk could see their ath eclipsed by 20%.

thoughts? what is your market top prediction? my analysis says btc to 150k for this cycle
What the hell did you just say?
 

mstateglfr

Well-known member
Feb 24, 2008
13,948
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I cant believe people have a strategy for this and there is analysis.
Actual investing terms are being used, as if BTC is a company with quarterly earnings projections, R&D analysis, etc. Yes yes, there can be strategy if BTC fluctuates based on outside factors, sort of like how gold adjusts to outside factors.
But I mean, actual analysis that leads to confident predictions on when to buy or sell?


My $646 I tossed in Fidelity BTC 51 weeks ago is now worth $1529. Monopoly money for sure.
It definitely beats the 17.4% my Rollover IRA has grown in the same 51 weeks though.
 

dorndawg

Well-known member
Sep 10, 2012
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I’ve had a very conservative target of $130k for a while now. More important than the overall target is when that happens. Crypto is different.

My thesis atm is: we are looking at a left translated cycle if you follow the 4-year or halving theory. layman’s terms: it’s happening faster than before.

Why that’s tricky is because you’ll start seeing the super cycle theory with crazy targets like $250k, $500k, or even $1M like Kathy Wood. Retail would be rushed in only to be exit liquidity for everyone that was aggressively stacking the last several years.

My crypto strategy is you want to gamble some lunch money: Go to Coinbase and/or Binance US and sort every listed project by MC and buy the smallest ones (it will take less liquidity to get them moving). After a 10x either go home or degen rotate with tight stops. My latest buy on CB is Velodrome (DeFi protocol on Optmism
L2). Purchase Feb 19th, up 128%, & she has another 10x in her easy by cycle end if not more. Pretty much anything you buy today will be up big by $100k BTC but the biggest % gainers will be those $40M MC that go over a billion.

For degen risk averse savages only: bridge to Base, get a TG base token scanner, get freaky.
1711394359883.jpeg
 

PBDog

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Oct 1, 2021
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if you’re telling people to invest in BTC and you don’t want them to know about the halving schedule you’re just not doing it right. To each his own. Nothing wrong with a DCA approach but this market isn’t your 401k.
blackrock and fidelity says your 401k should be in this market
 
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FreeDawg

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My $646 I tossed in Fidelity BTC 51 weeks ago is now worth $1529. Monopoly money for sure.
It definitely beats the 17.4% my Rollover IRA has grown in the same 51 weeks though.

That’s pretty good timing as a year ago was basically the market low. I publicly said on March 13 2023 when BTC was $22k that it would hit $45k much sooner than most realize, likely in 9 months. (9 months later to the day it was $42,900) Then $130k give or take a year after that.

The only reason I was throwing numbers out like that is because of the halving/4-year cycle that BTC has repeated now going on the 4th time. Only difference this time is price is accelerating faster. We’ve never had an ATH prior to halving but we’ve never had ETFs ie the demand of traditional markets. It freaks me out because it going to lead to people not being cautious and they’ll get wrecked.

To expand on that a touch, the euphoria that was happening in crypto markets in 2021 when BTC hit ATH $69k was insane. Elon is on SNL doing Doge skits. All news channels all day, etc… This time we keep poking new ATHs & very little media coverage. There will be a time in the near future where there will be a mania and everyone will be flocking in & that’s when it’s time to go because the end is near.
 

PBDog

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Oct 1, 2021
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I cant believe people have a strategy for this and there is analysis.
Actual investing terms are being used, as if BTC is a company with quarterly earnings projections, R&D analysis, etc. Yes yes, there can be strategy if BTC fluctuates based on outside factors, sort of like how gold adjusts to outside factors.
But I mean, actual analysis that leads to confident predictions on when to buy or sell?


My $646 I tossed in Fidelity BTC 51 weeks ago is now worth $1529. Monopoly money for sure.
It definitely beats the 17.4% my Rollover IRA has grown in the same 51 weeks though.
tell us you don’t know 5hit about bitcoin without telling us

FBTC etf has only been around since 2nd week of january
 
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FreeDawg

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Oct 6, 2010
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blackrock and fidelity says your 401k should be in this market
Yes BTC should be a piece via self custody, ETFs, or mining stocks. That’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying the wild volatility of crypto should not have the same DCA mentality of a 401k. Last 2 cycles BTC has gone from $20k to $3k & then $69k to $17k. That’s not like traditional markets. You should absolutely be factoring downside risk vs upside potential until it proves otherwise.
 

pseudonym

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Oct 6, 2022
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if you’re telling people to invest in BTC and you don’t want them to know about the halving schedule you’re just not doing it right. To each his own. Nothing wrong with a DCA approach but this market isn’t your 401k.
The nonsense I’m referring to is not the bitcoin supply schedule. That is important to understand. It’s the shitcoin gambling you’re promoting. Scammers use the price dynamics of the bitcoin halving cycle to shill shitcoins that have nothing in common with bitcoin. I saw it in the 2017 bull run and the 2021 bull run. It will happen again in the 2025 bull run.

 
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PBDog

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Yes BTC should be a piece via self custody, ETFs, or mining stocks. That’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying the wild volatility of crypto should not have the same DCA mentality of a 401k. Last 2 cycles BTC has gone from $20k to $3k & then $69k to $17k. That’s not like traditional markets. You should absolutely be factoring downside risk vs upside potential until it proves otherwise.
so dca harder during the winter?
 

mstateglfr

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tell us you don’t know 5hit about bitcoin without telling us

FBTC etf has only been around since 2nd week of january
I mean, there is basically a decade's worth of BTC talk on this forum where I chime in with 'WT17?' or 'Even after reading a dozen articles about the tech, I just dont get it'.
I have straight up said that I dont get it, so I have told 'us' that I dont get it.

I continue to wait for some actual investing fundamentals that can logically work for BTC or any crypto. Up to now, the way of justifying value and claiming fundamentals are used is to highlight the fact that mining will run out- so basically supply is limited. Well ok, but limited supply doesnt directly result in value. Another claim is that it can be used in place of fiat currency...but that has been an abject failure even at the limited scale it has been tried because verification is slow, verification is expensive, and people dont want to give up something that might be worth 20% more in a few days for no actual investment reason.
In reality, a bitcoin has no intrinsic value and is not backed or supported by anything. And in an ironic twist that just seems to be constantly ignored, its value is directly tied to the very currency that so many people claim BTC exists to be an alternative to. Um...yeah.
This is all speculation. Speculators pushed BTC and other crypto into the investment markets and speculators stand to gain the most from that move(shocker**). Thats cool and all, speculate away, but lets not pretend there is sound investment strategy actually going on by most(any?) speculators/investors.
Currently, the value is really all just a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy, a bit of FOMO, a bit of alt sticking it to the man, a heavy dose of social media, and a bit more of FOMO.


As for your comment about FBTC beoing around since the 2nd week of January...I am not sure what you are saying. Are you saying my comment about my Fidelity account is a lie? If thats what you are saying...who lies about investing $646 and only having $1529?
 

mstateglfr

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With all due respect sir, the marginal production cost of one trillion US dollars is the same as actual Monopoly money.
Monopoly is a game and has money that cant be used to buy anything in life. Me making money on BTC has been a game and I cant use that to buy anything in life(without converting it to cash).
Thats what I meant.
 

FreeDawg

Active member
Oct 6, 2010
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The nonsense I’m referring to is not the bitcoin supply schedule. That is important to understand. It’s the shitcoin gambling you’re promoting. Scammers use the price dynamics of the bitcoin halving cycle to shill shitcoins that have nothing in common with bitcoin. I saw it in the 2017 bull run and the 2021 bull run. It will happen again in the 2025 bull run.


Ok you’re a BTC maxi. Got it.
 

pseudonym

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Oct 6, 2022
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I mean, there is basically a decade's worth of BTC talk on this forum where I chime in with 'WT17?' or 'Even after reading a dozen articles about the tech, I just dont get it'.
I have straight up said that I dont get it, so I have told 'us' that I dont get it.

I continue to wait for some actual investing fundamentals that can logically work for BTC or any crypto. Up to now, the way of justifying value and claiming fundamentals are used is to highlight the fact that mining will run out- so basically supply is limited. Well ok, but limited supply doesnt directly result in value. Another claim is that it can be used in place of fiat currency...but that has been an abject failure even at the limited scale it has been tried because verification is slow, verification is expensive, and people dont want to give up something that might be worth 20% more in a few days for no actual investment reason.
In reality, a bitcoin has no intrinsic value and is not backed or supported by anything. And in an ironic twist that just seems to be constantly ignored, its value is directly tied to the very currency that so many people claim BTC exists to be an alternative to. Um...yeah.
This is all speculation. Speculators pushed BTC and other crypto into the investment markets and speculators stand to gain the most from that move(shocker**). Thats cool and all, speculate away, but lets not pretend there is sound investment strategy actually going on by most(any?) speculators/investors.
Currently, the value is really all just a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy, a bit of FOMO, a bit of alt sticking it to the man, a heavy dose of social media, and a bit more of FOMO.
 

Beretta.sixpack

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Oct 29, 2009
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Bitcoin is here to stay.....the only other one out there that has any long term survivability is ETH....I learned a lot from trading my first cycle ( the last one).....I held on through all the losses....refused to sell....i took some profit but not enough to cover my *** at the end of the cycle on all the Alt coins....

however, after the learning, i bought smart this time....and i have almost all of mine in BTC, ETH, and SOL....i have less than $1K in Metis and HBAR, but both are trades......

if you get into crypto, buy BTC and ETH and forget about it.....the rest is for trading, and ask someone for help doing those
 

Boom Boom

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I mean, there is basically a decade's worth of BTC talk on this forum where I chime in with 'WT17?' or 'Even after reading a dozen articles about the tech, I just dont get it'.
I have straight up said that I dont get it, so I have told 'us' that I dont get it.

I continue to wait for some actual investing fundamentals that can logically work for BTC or any crypto. Up to now, the way of justifying value and claiming fundamentals are used is to highlight the fact that mining will run out- so basically supply is limited. Well ok, but limited supply doesnt directly result in value. Another claim is that it can be used in place of fiat currency...but that has been an abject failure even at the limited scale it has been tried because verification is slow, verification is expensive, and people dont want to give up something that might be worth 20% more in a few days for no actual investment reason.
In reality, a bitcoin has no intrinsic value and is not backed or supported by anything. And in an ironic twist that just seems to be constantly ignored, its value is directly tied to the very currency that so many people claim BTC exists to be an alternative to. Um...yeah.
This is all speculation. Speculators pushed BTC and other crypto into the investment markets and speculators stand to gain the most from that move(shocker**). Thats cool and all, speculate away, but lets not pretend there is sound investment strategy actually going on by most(any?) speculators/investors.
Currently, the value is really all just a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy, a bit of FOMO, a bit of alt sticking it to the man, a heavy dose of social media, and a bit more of FOMO.


As for your comment about FBTC beoing around since the 2nd week of January...I am not sure what you are saying. Are you saying my comment about my Fidelity account is a lie? If thats what you are saying...who lies about investing $646 and only having $1529?
Sir, my turds have a limited supply and one day will cease production. They are clearly worth infinite dollars.
 
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Boom Boom

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Sep 29, 2022
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Bitcoin is here to stay.....the only other one out there that has any long term survivability is ETH....I learned a lot from trading my first cycle ( the last one).....I held on through all the losses....refused to sell....i took some profit but not enough to cover my *** at the end of the cycle on all the Alt coins....

however, after the learning, i bought smart this time....and i have almost all of mine in BTC, ETH, and SOL....i have less than $1K in Metis and HBAR, but both are trades......

if you get into crypto, buy BTC and ETH and forget about it.....the rest is for trading, and ask someone for help doing those
Kodak is here to stay too. First entrant (or near it), brand recognition, etc. But it could not forever provide a service that others couldn't, and eventually it essentially got left behind. Same will happen with BTC. A better option will displace it, and there will be a bank run to beat all bank runs.
 

PBDog

Well-known member
Oct 1, 2021
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I mean, there is basically a decade's worth of BTC talk on this forum where I chime in with 'WT17?' or 'Even after reading a dozen articles about the tech, I just dont get it'.
I have straight up said that I dont get it, so I have told 'us' that I dont get it.

I continue to wait for some actual investing fundamentals that can logically work for BTC or any crypto. Up to now, the way of justifying value and claiming fundamentals are used is to highlight the fact that mining will run out- so basically supply is limited. Well ok, but limited supply doesnt directly result in value. Another claim is that it can be used in place of fiat currency...but that has been an abject failure even at the limited scale it has been tried because verification is slow, verification is expensive, and people dont want to give up something that might be worth 20% more in a few days for no actual investment reason.
In reality, a bitcoin has no intrinsic value and is not backed or supported by anything. And in an ironic twist that just seems to be constantly ignored, its value is directly tied to the very currency that so many people claim BTC exists to be an alternative to. Um...yeah.
This is all speculation. Speculators pushed BTC and other crypto into the investment markets and speculators stand to gain the most from that move(shocker**). Thats cool and all, speculate away, but lets not pretend there is sound investment strategy actually going on by most(any?) speculators/investors.
Currently, the value is really all just a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy, a bit of FOMO, a bit of alt sticking it to the man, a heavy dose of social media, and a bit more of FOMO.


As for your comment about FBTC beoing around since the 2nd week of January...I am not sure what you are saying. Are you saying my comment about my Fidelity account is a lie? If thats what you are saying...who lies about investing $646 and only having $1529?
you didn’t buy the btc etf 51 weeks ago. you maybe bought a futures but not a spot btc etf
 

mstateglfr

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you didn’t buy the btc etf 51 weeks ago. you maybe bought a futures but not a spot btc etf
Ok, perhaps I called it by the wrong term? Its thru a Fidelity Crypto account and Bitcoin is the product.
1711461667428.png
 

PBDog

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Oct 1, 2021
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Kodak is here to stay too. First entrant (or near it), brand recognition, etc. But it could not forever provide a service that others couldn't, and eventually it essentially got left behind. Same will happen with BTC. A better option will displace it, and there will be a bank run to beat all bank runs.
it’s more likely that usd and all fiat currency is replaced by btc. the rest of the world sees what these 17n crooked politicians are doing and will eventually no longer pay for their crimes
 

Boom Boom

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it’s more likely that usd and all fiat currency is replaced by btc. the rest of the world sees what these 17n crooked politicians are doing and will eventually no longer pay for their crimes
And what military is BTC gonna accomplish that with?

Besides, you clearly don't realize the economic implications of a currency that deflates. Literally can never work.
 

mstateglfr

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you bought btc through the fidelity wallet …. should have bought more
Its tough to justify buying a lot of an 'investment' you dont fully understand and whose value base hasnt been sufficiently explained. Yeah I could have bought more, but I certainly couldnt have said I did it because it meets smart investing guidelines.
It was play money to see what happens. I am clearly conservative with how I invest.
 

mstateglfr

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Feb 24, 2008
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it’s more likely that usd and all fiat currency is replaced by btc. the rest of the world sees what these 17n crooked politicians are doing and will eventually no longer pay for their crimes
You think it is more likely that USD disappears and is replaced by BTC, compared to BTC being replaced by a better option?

Neither seems likely to me, but between the two, it sure seems like a better alternative to BTC could come along and replace BTC. It would be a system that can be more easily transferred for payment of every day goods and services, and is seen as an actual stable currency and not a speculative investment.
Something like that could absolutely overtake BTC since it would solve the issues that BTC cant seem to be.
 

PBDog

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You think it is more likely that USD disappears and is replaced by BTC, compared to BTC being replaced by a better option?

Neither seems likely to me, but between the two, it sure seems like a better alternative to BTC could come along and replace BTC. It would be a system that can be more easily transferred for payment of every day goods and services, and is seen as an actual stable currency and not a speculative investment.
Something like that could absolutely overtake BTC since it would solve the issues that BTC cant seem to be.
no you nailed it before "dont fully understand"
 
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engie

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Part of me thinks this institutional money flowing into btc sets a solid floor and knocks out some of the volatility. The other part thinks those 17ers will collude together and leave us all holding the bag at some point.

I’m just the guy that has been culling extravagant expenses and going as heavily as I can stand to lose into crypto the last few months anticipating the halving. Seems like a great chance to really get ahead for the first time in awhile.

Ill definitely be wrong because I’m elite at turning $100 into $50 in crypto.
 

pseudonym

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Oct 6, 2022
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Part of me thinks this institutional money flowing into btc sets a solid floor and knocks out some of the volatility. The other part thinks those 17ers will collude together and leave us all holding the bag at some point.

I’m just the guy that has been culling extravagant expenses and going as heavily as I can stand to lose into crypto the last few months anticipating the halving. Seems like a great chance to really get ahead for the first time in awhile.

Ill definitely be wrong because I’m elite at turning $100 into $50 in crypto.
The best strategy is to DCA into bitcoin (not crypto) for 5+ years and never sell. This has never not worked.

Example: If you started converting $10 into bitcoin every day five years ago (3/26/2019), you would have converted $18,280 and accumulated 1.10 BTC, valued at $77k today. 320% return over five years. This includes the 75% correction during 2022.

For comparison, a daily DCA into QQQ over the same timeframe would have returned about 60%.

There's no need to try to be smarter than DCA-ing into bitcoin and holding over the long term.
 

Boom Boom

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bitcoin is going negative. another $71k to go down.

He's dead right. But remember, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I know exactly where BTC will wind up, but I have no idea what path it takes to get there or how long it will take. It's the level of irrationality of others that sets the path, but the end result is based on reality so is fixed.
 
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